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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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Opening sentence is pretty clear by current standards. Particularly coming on the back of the failure of negotiations around the Ireland question.

"Retains the benefits" is alarmingly close to Davis and Legatum's "getting to the same means by different outcomes". The benefits could be anything you like.
 
Opening sentence is pretty clear by current standards. Particularly coming on the back of the failure of negotiations around the Ireland question.

“Retain the benefits” = keep the bit about trade and ditch freedom of movement so we don’t lose voters to UKIP. Cake and eat it in other words.
 
Labour seem to be playing it about right. It would be a mistake to offer an alternative way to do brexit because brexit as in leave everything which is what all the leavers I know voted for is not doable & anything else is probably worse than staying in. So they need to keep pushing the tories on domestic issues to expose they have just not fucked up brexit. Labour probably have already decided that winning the next election is more important than the outcome of brexit.
 
“Retain the benefits” = keep the bit about trade and ditch freedom of movement so we don’t lose voters to UKIP. Cake and eat it in other words.

Well clearly the EU is not going to stand for that. To suggest otherwise is disingenuous and doomed to backfire.

This whole fiasco has been caused by Cameron wanting to claw votes back from UKIP. It's time to stop playing that game. Particularly as UKIP is currently deader than the Pat Sharp mullet.
 
“Retain the benefits” = keep the bit about trade and ditch freedom of movement so we don’t lose voters to UKIP. Cake and eat it in other words.

That's not cake and eat it, IMO. There will be a price to pay, but it can be paid in money and restricted access for services, which would suit the EU well enough. They wouldn't have been on the verge of agreeing otherwise.
 
Labour seem to be playing it about right. It would be a mistake to offer an alternative way to do brexit because brexit as in leave everything which is what all the leavers I know voted for is not doable & anything else is probably worse than staying in. So they need to keep pushing the tories on domestic issues to expose they have just not fucked up brexit. Labour probably have already decided that winning the next election is more important than the outcome of brexit.

I disagree on EFTA being worse than staying in. And "playing it about right" -if they thought they could get away with handing in a note saying "Please excuse Jeremy from playing games. Signed Jeremy's Mum" they fucking would
 
I disagree on EFTA being worse than staying in. And "playing it about right" -if they thought they could get away with handing in a note saying "Please excuse Jeremy from playing games. Signed Jeremy's Mum" they fucking would
It's great being the opposition :D

John McDonnell: we must leave the single market to respect the referendum result

Tom Watson: we should stay in the single market and customs union permanently

Jon Ashworth, Jenny Chapman: we have to leave the single market

Diane Abbott: we should keep freedom of movement

Jeremy Corbyn, Keir Starmer: freedom of movement ends with Brexit

Barry Gardiner: staying in the customs union would be a disaster

Corbyn: whipped vote against single market and customs union membership

Starmer: we should stay in the single market and customs union (which means keeping free movement)
 
Paddy power is giving these odds at the moment. I'm not much good at reading this but think it's saying that most people think there'll be "no deal" brexit (?) Odds on us trying to get back in in a decade's time are quite good though.
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Paddy power is giving these odds at the moment. I'm not much good at reading this but think it's saying that most people think there'll be "no deal" brexit (?) Odds on us trying to get back in in a decade's time are quite good though.
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no, it's not saying that at all.

what it's saying is that a load of money has gone on the top bet. could simply be one person chucking on £10k.
 
unpredictability. If you'd have bet on corbyn to be labour leader before the post 2015 leadership election then you'd have made bare P's
 
Paddy power is giving these odds at the moment. I'm not much good at reading this but think it's saying that most people think there'll be "no deal" brexit (?) Odds on us trying to get back in in a decade's time are quite good though.
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It doesn't cover all options, of course. If brexit is abandoned, I would expect that to come after May has been deposed.
 
You're a nasty piece of work.

Because he stated a matter of empirical fact? You're a weirdo. Here you are, net EU contribution divided by population.

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Paddy power is giving these odds at the moment. I'm not much good at reading this but think it's saying that most people think there'll be "no deal" brexit (?) Odds on us trying to get back in in a decade's time are quite good though.
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I'd have thought Theresa May will almost certainly be PM when we leave, so 2/1 is a good price (technically, she might resign between a final deal being agreed and the UK actually withdrawing). It's the madness of the current circumstances, everything is fucked up and unmanageable but doesn't quite add up to a scenario for someone challenging her. Like watching a drunk weaving through the traffic, no way they can survive but you somehow know they will. I also can't see her resigning. Her position is pitiful, but her sense of self is tied up getting through to the finishing line. It's not redemption for calling the 2017 election, but it's all that she's got.
 
I'd have thought Theresa May will almost certainly be PM when we leave, so 2/1 is a good price (technically, she might resign between a final deal being agreed and the UK actually withdrawing). It's the madness of the current circumstances, everything is fucked up and unmanageable but doesn't quite add up to a scenario for someone challenging her. Like watching a drunk weaving through the traffic, no way they can survive but you somehow know they will. I also can't see her resigning. Her position is pitiful, but her sense of self is tied up getting through to the finishing line. It's not redemption for calling the 2017 election, but it's all that she's got.

There will be quite a lot of headroom for that, and the knives will be out the very second that the final outcome can be pinned on her. Hence the price, I guess.
 
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