Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[isvicthere?]

Edited for thread title read fail.

 

[mauvais]

Oh c'mon, that's nonsense. The choice is austerity or armed struggle?

Lesser evilism achieves nothing but allowing the benchmark for evil to shift over time.

You certainly don't have to interpret it literally as armed struggle. Just leave me off the credits if you do.

As for lesser evilism, it's a sad & embarrassing defeatism from which I'm having to try and defend it. But asking to be shot in the leg is generally better than getting shot in the head. And since you seem to have dropped your own gun somewhere in the 20th century it's probably worth a try.

 

[Wilf]

You certainly don't have to interpret it literally as armed struggle. Just leave me off the credits if you do.

As for lesser evilism, it's a sad & embarrassing defeatism from which I'm having to try and defend it. But asking to be shot in the leg is generally better than getting shot in the head. And since you seem to have dropped your own gun somewhere in the 20th century it's probably worth a try.

But what is it you would have people actually do?

 

[mauvais]

But we can say to people who are worried about deportations, we'll fight deportations with you. We can say to people worried about job losses we'll fight job losses with you. We can say to people worried about (oh God need a rule of three what else) chlorinated chicken that we'll fight against chlorinated chicken imports with you. I mean, I'm not so fussed about that last one but you know what I mean.

And when they say, correctly, that it was fucking obvious that there would be job losses and deportation and chlorinated chicken if we went with Brexit, and that you weren't willing to do a single thing about it because, quote, neoliberalism, what then? Something hand-wavey about how they were fucked anyway? Something unhelpful about how it's all someone else's battle? Something about how it was necessary to bring about change? Doesn't seem like the ideal platform, does it.

 

[mauvais]

But what is it you would have people actually do?

Hold their nose, support whatever they perceive to be the least damaging practical outcome at any point, silently if necessary but with some honest leadership would be better. Then carry on doing in parallel whatever they would have done anyway. At this point, where everything is already reactive, what's there to lose?

 

[Wilf]

Hold their nose, support whatever they perceive to be the least damaging practical outcome at any point, silently if necessary but with some honest leadership would be better. Then carry on doing in parallel whatever they would have done anyway. At this point, where everything is already reactive, what's there to lose?

But what does that amount to at this stage? Putting pressure on Corbyn to join the people's vote? Joining John Mann and Carolyn Flint trying to get some sort of workers rights bill into Brexit?
Labour MPs demand workers’ rights bill to secure Brexit backing
Aren't many 'progressive' options left in this shit show.

 

[SpackleFrog]

And when they say, correctly, that it was fucking obvious that there would be job losses and deportation and chlorinated chicken if we went with Brexit, and that you weren't willing to do a single thing about it because, quote, neoliberalism, what then? Something hand-wavey about how they were fucked anyway? Something unhelpful about how it's all someone else's battle? Something about how it was necessary to bring about change? Doesn't seem like the ideal platform, does it.

Look, first of all I am willing to do something about it and I am doing something about it. I'm just not wasting my breath on things that won't improve the situation at all, like demanding a second referendum that will never happen and isn't the right answer anyway. You can't just demand that people change their minds.

More importantly though, you're missing the point. Austerity isn't caused by 'Brexit' which may or may not happen - for the record I'm still firmly convinced it won't happen by the way. The referendum vote was a direct result of austerity.

You can't tell people that job losses are because of Brexit when they've seen job losses for years and when everyone knows full well there would continue to be job losses if we went with Tory Remain. You can't tell people that deportations are because of Brexit when there have already been deportations and will be more deportations and none of them are because of Brexit, they're a result of the Tory Hostile Environment policy. You can't keep pushing Thatcher's line that There Is No Alternative and expect anyone to listen.

Hold their nose, support whatever they perceive to be the least damaging practical outcome at any point, silently if necessary but with some honest leadership would be better. Then carry on doing in parallel whatever they would have done anyway. At this point, where everything is already reactive, what's there to lose?

And how will that ever get us anywhere?

 

[SpackleFrog]

You certainly don't have to interpret it literally as armed struggle. Just leave me off the credits if you do.

As for lesser evilism, it's a sad & embarrassing defeatism from which I'm having to try and defend it. But asking to be shot in the leg is generally better than getting shot in the head. And since you seem to have dropped your own gun somewhere in the 20th century it's probably worth a try.

I don't even understand this, sorry.

 

[SpackleFrog]

This crossed with my last post. I think I've covered that, though.

Yeah, broadly but I'm still not certain if you think there are things that could be done between now and 29th March or not.

 

[mauvais]

But what does that amount to at this stage? Putting pressure on Corbyn to join the people's vote? Joining John Mann and Carolyn Flint trying to get some sort of workers rights bill into Brexit?
Labour MPs demand workers’ rights bill to secure Brexit backing
Aren't many 'progressive' options left in this shit show.

In some respects it's too late for this particular Brexit adventure, but I also can't answer your perfectly reasonable question because it's not yet apparent what if any choices anyone has left before this thing crystallises into outcomes. It's more a question of what happens whenever the next possibility presents itself.

 

[chilango]

What will be a problem is every attack on us being met (from certain loud quarters) with cries of "Told you so! It's your own fault for voting Leave".

Less dramatically, there'll be a wider temptation to blame all kinds of stuff on Brexit rather than Bosses.

I think we're gonna have real problems coming up if we can't get some clear distance between ourselves and the Brexit circus (on either side).

 

[sleaterkinney]

I think you know the answer to that question don't you?

How do you think it makes you look, acting like there are at most only 3 opinions on this topic?

You're Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my £5.

 

[mauvais]

You can't tell people that job losses are because of Brexit when they've seen job losses for years and when everyone knows full well there would continue to be job losses if we went with Tory Remain. You can't tell people that deportations are because of Brexit when there have already been deportations and will be more deportations and none of them are because of Brexit, they're a result of the Tory Hostile Environment policy.

I don't disagree with you on everything, but this is where I think you have it wrong. This is why I said, "something hand-wavey about how they were fucked anyway". Jobs will be categorised as lost because of Brexit and then you will have to argue with or mansplain* to the unemployed that well actually, it wasn't Brexit and it was the fundamental nature of capital that did for you, and you will lose that argument with a deserved kicking, even if it is indeed entirely true, because it is ridiculous. So it is with deportations and further enablement of hostility, no matter how bad the baseline. There's bad and there's worse and people aren't nearly stupid enough to miss the difference.

*othergendersplains are available

 

[Wilf]

I don't disagree with you on everything, but this is where I think you have it wrong. This is why I said, "something hand-wavey about how they were fucked anyway". Jobs will be categorised as lost because of Brexit and then you will have to argue with or mansplain to the unemployed that well actually, it wasn't Brexit and it was the fundamental nature of capital that did for you, and you will lose that argument with a deserved kicking, even if it is indeed entirely true, because it is ridiculous. So it is with deportations and further enablement of hostility, no matter how bad the baseline. There's bad and there's worse and people aren't nearly stupid enough to miss the difference.

I somehow doubt that the Gina Miller/guardian crowd will be at the forefront of defending those jobs though.

And trite as that sounds, I think it's an important point. Those people are not our allies.

 

[ska invita]

You can't tell people that deportations are because of Brexit when there have already been deportations and will be more deportations and none of them are because of Brexit, they're a result of the Tory Hostile Environment policy.

Deportations/the making illegal of EU citizens will be because of Brexit.
Hostile Environment simply wouldn't have applied to the 3.5+ million currently in the searchlight.

 

[sleaterkinney]

For people who don't care about it you don't half talk about it a lot.

Or they could just be sitting on the fence because they like the splinters in their arse.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You're Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my £5.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't disagree with you on everything, but this is where I think you have it wrong. This is why I said, "something hand-wavey about how they were fucked anyway". Jobs will be categorised as lost because of Brexit and then you will have to argue with or mansplain* to the unemployed that well actually, it wasn't Brexit and it was the fundamental nature of capital that did for you, and you will lose that argument with a deserved kicking, even if it is indeed entirely true, because it is ridiculous. So it is with deportations and further enablement of hostility, no matter how bad the baseline. There's bad and there's worse and people aren't nearly stupid enough to miss the difference.

*othergendersplains are available

Jobs will be categorised as lost because of Brexit by people who want to reverse Brexit. If it happens which it won't. Even if it does though, in some limited non Brexit form, I test out my politics on the street week in, week out, I will continue to do so and I don't think I'll have any problems but ta for the concern

 

[mauvais]

I somehow doubt that the Gina Miller/guardian crowd will be at the forefront of defending those jobs though.

And trite as that sounds, I think it's an important point. Those people are not our allies.

No. But what does it matter? They're either issue-based and have no relevance post-Brexit, or gain nothing from their hapless positions, whereas - wavy lines, montage - 'the left' presumably aspires to influence and indeed taking advantage of the situation. So it has something at stake from how it looks after this sorry affair moves forward.

 

[8ball]

You're Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my £5.

We really need to up that prize. Especially with the imminent collapse of the pound.

 

[mauvais]

Jobs will be categorised as lost because of Brexit by people who want to reverse Brexit. If it happens which it won't. Even if it does though, in some limited non Brexit form, I test out my politics on the street week in, week out, I will continue to do so and I don't think I'll have any problems but ta for the concern

This is a path of denial. Tell it to car workers if and when their jobs are gone. It won't be abstract shadowy people that want to reverse Brexit who've decided that generic job losses are because of XYZ, it'll be individual people on the sharp end who've just lost their job. And your narrative competition will be the far right.

 

[SpackleFrog]

This is a path of denial. Tell it to car workers if and when their jobs are gone. It won't be abstract shadowy people that want to reverse Brexit who've decided that generic job losses are because of XYZ, it'll be individual people on the sharp end who've just lost their job. And your narrative competition will be the far right.

You've got a cheek really, accusing me of denial.

Look, you want Brexit cancelled. We get it. What will you say to millions of people, most of them working class, on low incomes, at the sharp end of austerity, if you succeed in that?

"Hey guys, I know things are awful, but trust me, if we hadn't just straight up cancelled a democratic process things would be even worse?"

Flip around and drink in the sheer hopelessness of your position.

 

[Humberto]

It's good that people are taking enough time to offer an opinion formed on the back of the testimony of wretched shambling dissemblers of no real consequence. Once they've started walking away from the pitches that leaders of the opposition bravely suppose can carry us through the arduous delay and resumption of politics, the opposition can then take a chance to formulate how it is expedient to desert the differing sub-sets of factional disagreement and obdurately bring the least assonance between those giving indications of destructive forces/momentums/winds. The deep dark chasm (not so belatedly) being given individual organs officially leads us to expectations of cannibalism two days into our new reparation and investiture themed occult hierarchy.

 

[Raheem]

I'm resistant to committing to what amounts to a conscious self-delusion, thinking that the EU is on our side and running to its aid.

Tbh, I think remainers who are thinking primarily in terms of running to the EU's aid would form a pretty small club.

 

[mauvais]

You've got a cheek really, accusing me of denial.

Look, you want Brexit cancelled. We get it. What will you say to millions of people, most of them working class, on low incomes, at the sharp end of austerity, if you succeed in that?

"Hey guys, I know things are awful, but trust me, if we hadn't just straight up cancelled a democratic process things would be even worse?"

Flip around and drink in the sheer hopelessness of your position.

That's not what I want and I doubt you can evidence it. I mean, I want it all to have never happened, but I've happened to notice that it's a teensy bit late now. So I want the least disastrous outcome. Whilst so much is in flux, I'm open minded about what that is, but it's probably not cancellation without either a lived experience or material change. There are ultimately no good outcomes from this point as I see it.

But let's be honest, I don't have to say shit to anyone. I don't do anything useful. I don't and realistically probably will never lead anything, and I'm certainly not being led at present. Thing is, I haven't claimed otherwise and I haven't criticised action. The sum total of my position amounts to (a) armchair criticism of a shit idea that I think will bring about significantly more pain than the default, and (b) a deeper ire for people that think they can somehow positively leverage either the process or the consequences without confronting their (lack of) role in the very same.

 

[danny la rouge]

Yeah, broadly but I'm still not certain if you think there are things that could be done between now and 29th March or not.

There are certainly “things that can be done”. But there are also things that can’t be done in the timescale, because there isn’t, and hasn’t been, the organisation in place preparing for it. There is no realistic chance of a “hard Lexit”, for example.

I agree with Costas Lapavitsas that WTO rules could provide significant opportunities for a left inspired restructuring of the UK economy. The hit we’re (the working class, and more) going to take is based on the way the situation at 11:01pm will impact the future of the economy, but beginning with the economy as it is structured now; the way it has been shaped over the last few decades. It has been deindustrialised and financialised by neoliberalism. It needn’t be that type of economy that the UK responds to Brexit with.

However, there has been no groundwork, there is no organisation, there is no preparation, to get us there by 29th March.

So, yes, the UK is Brexiting by some kind of right wing map, still being drawn, and the options open to us now are reactive.

 

[8ball]

That's not what I want and I doubt you can evidence it. I mean, I want it all to have never happened, but I've happened to notice that it's a teensy bit late now. So I want the least disastrous outcome. Whilst so much is in flux, I'm open minded about what that is, but it's probably not cancellation without either a lived experience or material change. There are ultimately no good outcomes from this point as I see it.

Yeah, you do seem to get a lot of remainers who seem to think everything goes away and back to "normal" if the Good Fairy grants a second vote.

Kansas has gone bye bye.

 

[sleaterkinney]

You've got a cheek really, accusing me of denial.

Look, you want Brexit cancelled. We get it. What will you say to millions of people, most of them working class, on low incomes, at the sharp end of austerity, if you succeed in that?

"Hey guys, I know things are awful, but trust me, if we hadn't just straight up cancelled a democratic process things would be even worse?"

Flip around and drink in the sheer hopelessness of your position.

As well as that, the two main Leaders are committed to leaving, but I still think my vote to remain was right, and I hope that given another chance 2.1% of the electorate would agree.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I don't disagree with you on everything, but this is where I think you have it wrong. This is why I said, "something hand-wavey about how they were fucked anyway". Jobs will be categorised as lost because of Brexit and then you will have to argue with or mansplain* to the unemployed that well actually, it wasn't Brexit and it was the fundamental nature of capital that did for you, and you will lose that argument with a deserved kicking, even if it is indeed entirely true, because it is ridiculous. So it is with deportations and further enablement of hostility, no matter how bad the baseline. There's bad and there's worse and people aren't nearly stupid enough to miss the difference.

*othergendersplains are available

Where and how do you expect these fictional conversations to take place? I actually agree that things will be worse in the short term at the very least (with a no deal brexit anyway, there might not be much difference at all if they get a deal through) but given what we know about the brexit vote the people in these conversations that will definitely happen probably voted for brexit.

 

[SpineyNorman]

It's good that people are taking enough time to offer an opinion formed on the back of the testimony of wretched shambling dissemblers of no real consequence. Once they've started walking away from the pitches that leaders of the opposition bravely suppose can carry us through the arduous delay and resumption of politics, the opposition can then take a chance to formulate how it is expedient to desert the differing sub-sets of factional disagreement and obdurately bring the least assonance between those giving indications of destructive forces/momentums/winds. The deep dark chasm (not so belatedly) being given individual organs officially leads us to expectations of cannibalism two days into our new reparation and investiture themed occult hierarchy.

I was going to say that