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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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I've said repeatedly I'm not a 'Lexiter' and I don't agree with those who are talking about a 'Lexit'.

You voted leave, didn't you? So what were you voting for - a non-lexit Brexit?

Now that I have demonstrated my failure to discern quite what argument you've been advancing throughout this thread - that's actually of any use or relevance in trying to work out what the best thing is to do at this stage, or any stage, in the actual process of acting on the referendum result - now that I have demonstrated my moronity, perhaps you can explain? What I said was that maybe your arguments haven't been good enough: they haven't been good enough for me to understand what actual proposals you have.
 
Where and how do you expect these fictional conversations to take place? I actually agree that things will be worse in the short term at the very least (with a no deal brexit anyway, there might not be much difference at all if they get a deal through) but given what we know about the brexit vote the people in these conversations that will definitely happen probably voted for brexit.
And remain haven't exactly done a good job of having a conversation with leave voters, full stop.

Some of this almost feels like those people wearing 'Don't blame me I voted Labour' T shirts after the 1979 general election. It's a non-engagement.
 
That's not what I want and I doubt you can evidence it. I mean, I want it all to have never happened, but I've happened to notice that it's a teensy bit late now. So I want the least disastrous outcome. Whilst so much is in flux, I'm open minded about what that is, but it's probably not cancellation without either a lived experience or material change. There are ultimately no good outcomes from this point as I see it.

Hang about, I thought you were arguing I should be campaigning for Brexit it to be cancelled, have I got confused? If so I'm sorry.

If you want the least disastrous outcome, and you don't think that's simply cancelling Brexit, what does that look like?

Would you feel better about a Brexit where there were no new restrictions on immigration, where we kept free movement of goods, and there was no more Tory austerity for example?
 
You voted leave, didn't you? So what were you voting for - a non-lexit Brexit?

Now that I have demonstrated my failure to discern quite what argument you've been advancing throughout this thread - that's actually of any use or relevance in trying to work out what the best thing is to do at this stage, or any stage, in the actual process of acting on the referendum result - now that I have demonstrated my moronity, perhaps you can explain? What I said was that maybe your arguments haven't been good enough: they haven't been good enough for me to understand what actual proposals you have.

I wasn't voting for anything, I was voting against things. I voted against Cameron, against the Tories, against the EU, against the ECB and the IMF. There wasn't anything positive on the ballot paper to vote for.
 
No, opposition to the Tories is a positive.
You said there was nothing positive on the ballot paper. But anyway, a vote for Brexit represents a vote for opposition to the Tories. So you voted for Brexit. But not a Lexit. Just a Brexit that is opposition to the Tories, and then something or other will happen, where the Tories are opposed, and Brexit happens, but not a Lexit Brexit, but that's still OK. Or, maybe, you voted for Brexit, in the hope that Brexit never really happens, but you don't think Brexit should be cancelled, or that there should be a second vote.
 
You said there was nothing positive on the ballot paper. But anyway, a vote for Brexit represents a vote for opposition to the Tories. So you voted for Brexit. But not a Lexit. Just a Brexit that is opposition to the Tories, and then something or other will happen, where the Tories are opposed, and Brexit happens, but not a Lexit Brexit, but that's still OK. Or, maybe, you voted for Brexit, in the hope that Brexit never really happens, but you don't think Brexit should be cancelled, or that there should be a second vote.

No, I think we should mobilise for a general election, bring down the govt with strikes and demonstrations, elect a Corbyn-led govt and be ready to mobilise to make sure he keeps his limited promises. Actually, I think that giddy with the confidence of bringing down the Tories, maybe I'd like us to even go a bit further than that. But it'll do as a demand for now.

But the thing is, that's what I thought before the referendum. Lexit never really made any sense because before the referendum, it was obvious to anyone with any sense that in or out of the EU, we'd have to get the Tories out.
 
No, I think we should mobilise for a general election, bring down the govt with strikes and demonstrations, elect a Corbyn-led govt and be ready to mobilise to make sure he keeps his limited promises. Actually, I think that giddy with the confidence of bringing down the Tories, maybe I'd like us to even go a bit further than that. But it'll do as a demand for now.

But the thing is, that's what I thought before the referendum. Lexit never really made any sense because before the referendum, it was obvious to anyone with any sense that in or out of the EU, we'd have to get the Tories out.
So Brexit was a means to bring about a general election in which a Corbyn led govt gets elected?
 
I somehow doubt that the Gina Miller/guardian crowd will be at the forefront of defending those jobs though.

And trite as that sounds, I think it's an important point. Those people are not our allies.
I'm unclear about what you're saying here. Is it that backing Brexit is the only way of avoiding agreeing with a bunch of wankers?
 
So Brexit was a means to bring about a general election in which a Corbyn led govt gets elected?

No. Firstly, I said specifically that the means to bring about a general election should be:

strikes and demonstrations

Secondly, I still want now what I want before the referendum. I didn't want the referendum to happen but I didn't have a choice over it. When it happened I voted to Leave. I thought that doing that would make a Corbyn govt more likely, absolutely, but even if Milliband was still leader and was ardently campaigning for Remain I would still have voted Leave for the reasons I've stated.

LOL I've just imagined an alternative reality where Milliband stays on as Labour leader after the 2015 election and campaigns for Remain :D
 
But what is it you would have people actually do?
Vote Labour, vote Macron, vote Remain, etc. Elect social democrats.
Hold their nose, support whatever they perceive to be the least damaging practical outcome at any point, silently if necessary but with some honest leadership would be better. Then carry on doing in parallel whatever they would have done anyway. At this point, where everything is already reactive, what's there to lose?
Because the above groups are the ones attacking us, they are every bit as much the enemy as the Tories.

Fundamentally what you want isn't what I want. Your aim is for some "left wing" government to come in and fix things, I think that aim leads to very attacks on the working class that we've see for the last 30 years.

For me, and others, the only way positive change can come is though the actions of the working class. And the parties/organisations that above are directly opposed to that, see the response of the LP to any party on its left flank.
This is not just some theoretical discussion it's key, you supported governments attacking deprived local communities in the name of doing something about climate change. That's exactly opposite to my fight for workers to control their communities.

EDIT: And the most recent post on the Birmingham bin strike thread gives an excellent example of what I'm talking about. We've a Labour council attacking workers, fighting for workers necessarily means fighting Labour.
 
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Fundamentally what you want isn't what I want. Your aim is for some "left wing" government to come in and fix things
No. I mean, you can keep saying it and ignore what I say in return, but it doesn’t make it true. There's a difference between an aim and the least miserable hope. I think governance is the latter, the most likely to yield any improvement not because it's the answer but because there is a total absence of what you want. What's been produced throughout Brexit? No ideas, no direction, no credibility, just passive observance of the creation of a big empty hole that you're apparently waiting to react to but which the right can push you into first. This isn't a plan, it's just hoping that one day the stars align and people decide to try whatever it is you want entirely of their own initiative. And don't get me wrong, it's really fucking difficult, and you may well end up covered in shit trying to engage in someone else's battle, but I doubt it's going to go much better in abstention.
EDIT: And the most recent post on the Birmingham bin strike thread gives an excellent example of what I'm talking about. We've a Labour council attacking workers, fighting for workers necessarily means fighting Labour.
Which is the perfect opposite of all this. It's active, tangible, it's consistent with a long-established narrative, there's organisation and a message. Good luck to everyone involved.
 
No. Firstly, I said specifically that the means to bring about a general election should be:



Secondly, I still want now what I want before the referendum. I didn't want the referendum to happen but I didn't have a choice over it. When it happened I voted to Leave. I thought that doing that would make a Corbyn govt more likely, absolutely, but even if Milliband was still leader and was ardently campaigning for Remain I would still have voted Leave for the reasons I've stated.

LOL I've just imagined an alternative reality where Milliband stays on as Labour leader after the 2015 election and campaigns for Remain :D
So you didn't vote leave as a means to bring about a GE and Corbyn led government.

You voted leave because it would increase the likelihood of a Corbyn led government.

Sounds like lexit to me.
 
There's a difference between an aim and the least miserable hope.
You’re falling into the trap of saying “something needs to be done. This is something. Therefore this needs to be done”.

We have the equivalent of two gangster families fighting over territory. We’re going to be fucked over by whoever wins. And even if one side smiles at your kids and ruffles their hair, they’re still going to be sociopathic parasites. You might say “the reality is one side is going to win; it doesn’t help to do nothing”. But ‘not picking a side to lend support to’ is not necessarily the same as ‘doing nothing’.

When Cameron decided to hold the referendum, then along with Osborne and most Tories led the Remain campaign, we had a choice between their side - the neoliberal establishment - or a campaign led by a coalition of neoconservative oddballs and opportunists. That was the choice we were faced with. I was undecided whether to vote, and if so how to vote, right up until the last minute. Because I knew that as well as the prima facie question on the ballot paper, there were other levels of decision to be made. Debates between the lines. In the end I made my decision based on the campaign run by Leave. I decided to vote against that. In particular, on polling day, I saw again online the infamous dog whistle queue poster. I decided to vote Remain. Not wholeheartedly. Not even half-heartedly. But in the heat of the moment.

Nor was I happy with the Remain campaign. There was a lot I didn't like about it. A lot. I didn't like the story they told that went "if you don't vote for our option, you're being ignorant and aren't understanding the realities". That's a story you can sell to people who are already onside, but to people who are already unhappy it's a red rag. And it's a mistake that 2nd referendum enthusiasts are repeating. In fact, it's been repeated recently on this very thread (eg here). Hoping that people will "come to their senses" will never happen if your message is predominantly "surely you've come to your senses by now?" Even if there was a 2nd referendum, I really can't see any sign that the Remain camp are going to do anything but repeat those mistakes.

We need to survey the scene in front of us. Where does the balance of possibilities and probabilities lie? Well, in the political classes, we know it's stalemate. The ragtag of neoconservative oddballs and opportunists won the day, but it turns out they have no sway in parliament. In addition, they are poor strategists, and overplayed their hand in the House. So the neoliberal establishment have mainly fallen into a position of finding the most neoliberal way that they can make Brexit work, hoping to find a way that is just neoconservative enough to carry the oddballs, and that the EU will agree to, and that the supporters of the neoliberal project outside of the House will swallow (ie, the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce, the financial institutions, etc), and that looks enough like Brexit to satisfy the Leave vote in the population.

I can't see the cancelling of Brexit by the establishment doing anything but creating more social problems. I think in addition, it'd open the door to the far right in a disastrous way. (Not that I'd back away from a straight fight with the far right if that was what was required, but I see no reason to drive millions into their clutches).

Nor do I think Labour have covered themselves in glory. They had an opportunity to present a distinctive alternative, but chose instead to say as little as possible and wait to see what mistakes the government made. An understandable tactic, but one that has deprived us of a social democratic alternative.

And as I said in a previous post, there has been insufficient groundwork to organise for Lexit. (Not that I think "socialism in one country" is achievable, but I do think there were possibilities for a left-inspired restructuring of the economy under WTO rules. But that won't just happen by magic).

So, what is there on the Brexit table for me to support? Nothing. Only things to oppose.
 
Having had my attention drawn to naked brexit lady by her nude stunts, I've been reading some of her ideas this morning. Can't say I'm into them tbh.

https://capx.co/welfare-reform-why-susbsidising-other-peoples-kids-must-have-limits/

Who’d have thought that a Cambridge economist would be so right wing?

First time I have ever knowingly read something by a Cambridge fellow. She seems incredibly blinkered to any way of life other than her own.
 
You've got a cheek really, accusing me of denial.

Look, you want Brexit cancelled. We get it. What will you say to millions of people, most of them working class, on low incomes, at the sharp end of austerity, if you succeed in that?

"Hey guys, I know things are awful, but trust me, if we hadn't just straight up cancelled a democratic process things would be even worse?"

Flip around and drink in the sheer hopelessness of your position.
Is it necessary to 'say' anything to millions of people beyond 'you won, have your brexit'.
I would prefer to ask rather than say.
I would ask those millions of people for their detailed practical realistic plan for the land border with two divergent systems either side of it.
Those millions of people who won this particular version of a 'democratic process', could solve a lot of problems by owning the result and describe what 'Ieave' means in terms of the land border in Ireland.
Winners don't get told, they get asked, because they often say they knew what they were voting for. Tell the rest of us on the losing side. After more than two years the winners have had a chance to work out what to say.
 
Is it necessary to 'say' anything to millions of people beyond 'you won, have your brexit'.
I would prefer to ask rather than say.
I would ask those millions of people for their detailed practical realistic plan for the land border with two divergent systems either side of it.
Those millions of people who won this particular version of a 'democratic process', could solve a lot of problems by owning the result and describe what 'Ieave' means in terms of the land border in Ireland.
Winners don't get told, they get asked, because they often say they knew what they were voting for. Tell the rest of us on the losing side. After more than two years the winners have had a chance to work out what to say.


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