Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[The Fornicator]

Indeed.

 

[Pickman's model]

Get back to me when you're earning £500,000 a year giving professional advice and not a bloke on the internet.

yeh. when you reciprocate and do the same in all those situations in your life when other people know much, much better than you what to do.

 

[The Fornicator]

yeh, yeh

 

[SpackleFrog]

Which would have made recent Labour infighting look like pure tranquility. There would have been a formal split, with a substantial part of the membership leaving too.

Would that have been a bad thing or a good thing?

If May's deal gets through it will be with the support of Labour rebels that should have been removed from office by now.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The advice is fairly clear imo. There's nothing particularly surprising in there.

Not sure what you mean by bait and switch - you think they are gearing up to revoke Art 50?

Some of them would definitely like to - were it to become politically palatable to do so.

 

[killer b]

Would that have been a bad thing or a good thing?

If May's deal gets through it will be with the support of Labour rebels that should have been removed from office by now.

How could they have been removed?

 

[SpackleFrog]

How could they have been removed?

Empower CLP's to deselect and replace MP's - at the very least you'd have a mechanism to threaten them with.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Could anyone tell me by the way - May's deal means staying in the customs union so there will be no need for border checks on goods, at least during the potentially permanent 'backstop'.

However, would there be immigration checks on the Irish border? Or will free movement between ROI and NI continue?

 

[not-bono-ever]

I think it depends on what we want. A CU does not automatically mean no border checks -the EU is full of them

 

[killer b]

Empower CLP's to deselect and replace MP's - at the very least you'd have a mechanism to threaten them with.

How might they have been removed from office 'by now' though?

Selections for the next election haven't happened yet in constituencies with sitting MPs (and if there's a snap election they'll be automatically reselected anyway). Many of the people you want to see threatened with deselection are being threatened with deselection, and there has been an ongoing battle within the party to empower CLPs further, which was one of the big stories of this year's conference.

Do you think the Labour Party is some monolithic entity that just does what the leader says it should? You can't have been paying much attention the last couple of years if so...

 

[Pickman's model]

Could anyone tell me by the way - May's deal means staying in the customs union so there will be no need for border checks on goods, at least during the potentially permanent 'backstop'.

However, would there be immigration checks on the Irish border? Or will free movement between ROI and NI continue?

depends on the day of the week

 

[SpackleFrog]

How might they have been removed from office 'by now' though?

Selections for the next election haven't happened yet in constituencies with sitting MPs (and if there's a snap election they'll be automatically reselected anyway). Many of the people you want to see threatened with deselection are being threatened with deselection, and there has been an ongoing battle within the party to empower CLPs further, which was one of the big stories of this year's conference.

Do you think the Labour Party is some monolithic entity that just does what the leader says it should? You can't have been paying much attention the last couple of years if so...

No, of course I don't, but I think if the Labour leadership had been arguing for the principle that MP's should come under the democratic control of their CLP since Corbyn was elected then we would be in a different place right now. You say there's been a battle and there has been but Corbyn hasn't actually fought very hard.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Sorry, but this just isn't true. They may be cranks, but they've enjoyed majority support by the membership and a large base in parliament for decades.

But when it comes down to it can't bring down May.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Right on cue.

They’re gonna scrape May’s deal through, aren’t they?

“Anything but Corbyn”. That’s the big sell. Doesn’t matter how shit it is, what principles they have to ditch, it’s not Corbyn as PM.

 

[killer b]

But when it comes down to it can't bring down May.

But you were making out the brexit strand in the Tories was somehow analogous with the lexit crew in Labour, which is total bollocks.

I know it's tempting to see the two parties and leaders as some kind of bizzaro mirror image of each other, but the factions and balances of power are totally different, as well as the party machines they have to contend with.

 

[Sasaferrato]

 

[Smokeandsteam]

That video is embarrassing.

 

[killer b]

as if you watched it.

 

[danny la rouge]

That video is embarrassing.

as if you watched it.

I can simultaneously hold both positions without any cognitive trauma whatever.

 

[Wilf]

Apparently the Archbishop of Canterbury has said a second ref may be desirable - and called for 'national reconciliation'. Game changer.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Apparently the Archbishop of Canterbury has said a second ref may be desirable - and called for 'national reconciliation'. Game changer.

I confess that I don't even know his name. Bloke who replaced beardy Gandalf-type, Williams. Don't even know what he looks like.

 

[Wilf]

I confess that I don't even know his name. Bloke who replaced beardy Gandalf-type, Williams. Don't even know what he looks like.

Welby. Wasn't he some kind of oil trader or summat, pre-priesthood?

edit: wiki -
Welby worked for eleven years in the oil industry, five of them for the French oil company Elf Aquitaine based in Paris. In 1984 he became treasurer of the oil exploration group Enterprise Oil plc in London, where he was mainly concerned with West African and North Sea oil projects. He retired from his executive position in 1989 and said that he sensed a calling from God to be ordained.[22]

 

[Sprocket.]

And what do we do with bridges apart from burn them?

Ask John Terry!

 

[brogdale]

Gott mit uns

 

[brogdale]

Hard to disagree with former tory chief whip Mark Harper; win and they've lost...lose and...

 

[Kaka Tim]

They’re gonna scrape May’s deal through, aren’t they?
.

no. not in a million years. something like 70-100 tory mps are against it. the revolt is only getting bigger - especially since the legal advice confirms one of the main weaknesses (it could lead to the UK in Euro limbo indefinitely) . May and her deal are fucked.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

no. not in a million years. something like 70-100 tory mps are against it. the revolt is only getting bigger - especially since the legal advice confirms one of the main weaknesses (it could lead to the UK in Euro limbo indefinitely) . May and her deal are fucked.

They’re against it now, but faced with no Brexit at all or Corbyn? Self preservation will kick in, surely?

 

[Wilf]

This might not be an entirely radical, cutting edge, groundbreadking point - that governments are duplicitous and dishonest... but it's interesting seeing bits of the debate after the legal opinion was published in full. Particularly on the backstop, a couple of MPs are saying they will now definitely vote against the deal (latest I've seen was the former tory chief whip). If they are genuine in that, that seeing the legal advice has made a material difference to their voting intentions, there's an obvious conclusion to be drawn i.e. government were dishonestly withholding the information and, in practice, deceiving MPs. Rather than a farty vote of censure, MPs should be apoplectic. Instead it's the government making the running with Leadsome saying you 'will regret forcing us to give you the legal advice'.

 

[Wilf]

At 16:49 here:
Brexit: MPs rail against backstop plans in second day of debate on May's deal – Politics live
... there's speculation that the grieve amendment from yesterday may make brexiteers move towards May's deal - as it would be the most brexity outcome of all the possibilities then opened up.

Staggering that, as a process, they are making decisions on the hoof without really understanding the legal or parliamentary scenarios their actions create/disallow. Funny as fuck. Sort of.

 

[Kaka Tim]

They’re against it now, but faced with no Brexit at all or Corbyn? Self preservation will kick in, surely?

the brexiteers will go down with brexit - what have they got to lose? they can look their voters in the eye and say - we fought for it, we didn't cave in. A far easier position to live with then enabling mays shitty deal. They cant row back now - they'd look (even more) ridiculous. They'd still be mps. still getting paid. they are (sadly) not actually dying in a ditch.
And rejecting mays deal does not automatically mean Corbyn in no.10 - any more than mays deal going through prevents it.