Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[danny la rouge]

Question for anyone with better knowledge of process...

Publishing the legal advice. Didn't parliament agree it had to happen?

Now the tories are saying they'll do some kind of summary. [Subtext: Its not good]

How does that square? Was the agreement to publish it all, enforceable... and if so, how?

Good question. Yes, parliament did agree that. The Govt is arguing that it will comply with the spirit of that vote, but to "safeguard cabinet collective responsibility" (translation: somebody disagreed with something, but we don't want you to know who or what), they will not be complying with the letter of the vote. How does it square? Maybe it doesn't. Maybe the speaker will rule the govt decision is in contempt of the House. Would they then be forced to publish? Unless they can think of another excuse, possibly. But they can probably delay as long as for example Blair did on the dodgy dossier.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not an expert on Parliamentary procedure, but wasn't this exactly the game the Tories played with the impact assessments? I think the Speaker can step in and force HMG to do what Parliament wanted (depending on motion wording).

and as if by magic the speaker's feelings on the matter were reported yesterday

 

[paolo]

Aviation.

I used to fly very small fun planes, hung around with people who flew big boring ones.

The sky isn't falling in, because - as a physically impossible event - that flippant measure of success is so immeasurably low it's moronic.

Instead, more uncertainty. The thread over in "pilots75" is one of confusion more than ideology. Will my license be valid?

From that thread, and then a jump off to the CAA...

the tldr: If your company runs anything not UK Registered, consider your license.



----- CAA:

"Would I be able to continue operating EU-registered aircraft with a UK Part-FCL licence?

The European Commission has said that it would not recognise UK-issued Part-FCL licences.

To continue operating EU-registered aircraft, you may seek a licence validation from any EASA Competent Authority, which would be valid for aircraft registered in any EASA Member State. You cannot seek this until after the UK has formally withdrawn from the EU.

We recommend that you speak to the relevant NAA as soon as possible about the process for achieving a validation of your UK issued Part-FCL licence.

Alternatively, you may undertake a State of Licence Issue transfer before 29 March 2019. This means transferring your licence from the UK to another EASA member state.




When is the latest I could apply to transfer my licence to another EASA member state to get my licence in time for 29 March 2019?

The CAA has no control over the issuance process of other EASA Member States, we therefore recommend that you contact the proposed NAA directly on these matters.

 

[paolo]

Good question. Yes, parliament did agree that. The Govt is arguing that it will comply with the spirit of that vote, but to "safeguard cabinet collective responsibility" (translation: somebody disagreed with something, but we don't want you to know who or what), they will not be complying with the letter of the vote. How does it square? Maybe it doesn't. Maybe the speaker will rule the govt decision is in contempt of the House. Would they then be forced to publish? Unless they can think of another excuse, possibly. But they can probably delay as long as for example Blair did on the dodgy dossier.

Thanks - I know that answer could be said to be as clear as mud, but it's clearer than the mud I had earlier.

 

[Pickman's model]

i see that the decline in eu nationals moving to the uk has been made up by an increase in the number of non-eu nationals moving to the uk

 

[mojo pixy]

Wait till you're one step beyond

That way lies Madness

 

[ska invita]

As a point of information, I must once again point out that I voted Remain.

hah i didnt realise that! its a complicated world

Just a thought about Labours position, im starting to think that Stephen Bush has got it right here (he's on about 30 secs in - the rest doesnt need watching):


To summarise his position:
-If the deal fails to pass Labour will go for a GE but fail (they already know that it wont fly, not got the numbers)
- next step they're going for a second ref...seems there aren't the numbers for that either...
-that leaves No Deal, which nearly no one wants, which might lead to a vote in support of Mays Deal as the only option left!
Thats a scenario of Mays Deal passing with no need from a market shock to get through.

Someone upthread was saying they're enjoying the Tories splitting over this...there is a still a big chance, perhaps the biggest of all the possibilities, that Mays Deal will pass, that she'll deliver a brexit, and by that point the party will have had to reconcile their difference enough and whatsmore they'll win the next election.

May has already been able to call Labour the party trying to stop Brexit on a whiff of second ref talk - theres more damage for Labour to take in this process.

 

[ViolentPanda]

and as if by magic the speaker's feelings on the matter were reported yesterday
View attachment 153875

Bercow looks like he's taking the eagle up the cloaca.

 

[ViolentPanda]

That way lies Madness

Crap pun.
Make amendments, you're an embarrassment.

 

[TopCat]

Fuck no puns.

 

[DotCommunist]

theres more damage for Labour to take in this process.

Which was why I wondered at the speed which they confirmed corbyn would be happy to debate the issues with may. Not on performances, they both have their flaws with speaking (may is worse imo), but making this a labour v cons issue. To me thats throwing may a free bonus, 'I have a shit deal here' vs 'look at this, its corbyn, boo'

 

[ska invita]

Which was why I wondered at the speed which they confirmed corbyn would be happy to debate the issues with may. Not on performances, they both have their flaws with speaking (may is worse imo), but making this a labour v cons issue. To me thats throwing may a free bonus, 'I have a shit deal here' vs 'look at this, its corbyn, boo'

i agree...the only thing in their favour is i think Corbyn often does well in campaigning mode and when he gets time directly and unfiltered in front of audiences they usually like what he has to say, without the taint of negative spin on it that usually makes up his presence in the media.

i just think Labour have got nothing clever to say on this...partly it what's been said above that they haven't presented a positive socialist brexit vision (especially so since most Lab voters seem to be increasingly 2refers if not remainers), but partly being in opposition and having no power leaves them in a position of armchair critics, and every criticism plays into the Youre Just Brexit Stoppers position of May. And she's basically right on that - there's nothing they can really do but scupper it. Its years too late for alternative visions.

If May convinces that this is as good a deal as its possible - and I think that is the dominant narrative - then any Labour criticism is an existential criticism of Brexit itself. Its a fucked up position for them.

Ultimately its MPs that need convincing, but if the public moves a bit more behind the deal more MPs should follow, especially as it gets to the finish line.

Mays technocratic and robotic charm might not even be the hindrance it usually is on this topic - enacting a technocratic process. 10 Run Brexit, 20 Goto 10

 

[Pickman's model]

i agree...the only thing in their favour is i think Corbyn often does well in campaigning mode and when he gets time directly and unfiltered in front of audiences they usually like what he has to say, without the taint of negative spin on it that usually makes up his presence in the media.

i just think Labour have got nothing clever to say on this...partly it what's been said above that they haven't presented a positive socialist brexit vision (especially so since most Lab voters seem to be increasingly 2refers if not remainers), but partly being in opposition and having no power leaves them in a position of armchair critics, and every criticism plays into the Youre Just Brexit Stoppers position of May. And she's basically right on that - there's nothing they can really do but scupper it. Its years too late for alternative visions.

If May convinces that this is as good a deal as its possible - and I think that is the dominant narrative - then any Labour criticism is an existential criticism of Brexit itself. Its a fucked up position for them.

Ultimately its MPs that need convincing, but if the public moves a bit more behind the deal more MPs should follow, especially as it gets to the finish line.

Mays technocratic and robotic charm might not even be the hindrance it usually is on this topic - enacting a technocratic process. 10 Run Brexit, 20 Goto 10

i do think it's a bit unfair expecting a non-socialist party to present a positive socialist vision of anything, be it brexit, bees or bananas

 

[ska invita]

i do think it's a bit unfair expecting a non-socialist party to present a positive socialist vision of anything, be it brexit or bananas

the vision....

 

[paolo]

Which was why I wondered at the speed which they confirmed corbyn would be happy to debate the issues with may. Not on performances, they both have their flaws with speaking (may is worse imo), but making this a labour v cons issue. To me thats throwing may a free bonus, 'I have a shit deal here' vs 'look at this, its corbyn, boo'

Blimey yes. I'll be tedious and just repeat one thing:

"making this a labour v cons issue"

That's the worst of this debate.

We know just from discussion here it's not an old school left vs right argument - IMHO.

 

[Poi E]

May has already been able to call Labour the party

And say "are you as scared of the SNP as I am?"

 

[MickiQ]

Which was why I wondered at the speed which they confirmed corbyn would be happy to debate the issues with may. Not on performances, they both have their flaws with speaking (may is worse imo), but making this a labour v cons issue. To me thats throwing may a free bonus, 'I have a shit deal here' vs 'look at this, its corbyn, boo'

I don't think a debate is going to be good for either of them, May completely lacks charisma when it comes to public speaking. Corbyn is good at making speeches to rally the troops but he doesn't do that well at debating, it will be made even worse by the fact that Labour doesn't really have a clear position to defend.

 

[paolo]

I don't think a debate is going to be good for either of them, May completely lacks charisma when it comes to public speaking. Corbyn is good at making speeches to rally the troops but he doesn't do that well at debating, it will be made even worse by the fact that Labou doesn't really have a clear position to defend.

May has the advantage of working on detail - if Corbyn tries to work it that level I think he'll trip.

He could - and I'll admit this is my fantasising - blindside her and launch the idea of 2nd ref.

If he does that, she's floored. There's no come back. Allowing people to choose what's on offer. The will of the people blocking the will of the people?

 

[gosub]

May has the advantage of working on detail - if Corbyn tries to work it that level I think he'll trip.

He could - and I'll admit this is my fantasising - blindside her and launch the idea of 2nd ref.

If he does that, she's floored. There's no come back. Allowing people to choose what's on offer. The will of the people blocking the will of the people?

Couldn"t disagree more. Liaison Committee shredded her on detail this morning, and the 2nd referendum has been the cynical play from the beginning. The problem with Brexit is that is been done in exactly the same way the previous treaties that lead to the malcontents in the first place.


Good to see Parliament starting to wake up to the point of itself.

 

[paolo]

Couldn"t disagree more. Liaison Committee shredded her on detail this morning, and the 2nd referendum has been the cynical play from the beginning. The problem with Brexit is that is been done in exactly the same way the previous treaties that lead to the malcontents in the first place.


Good to see Parliament starting to wake up to the point of itself.

Your overall point is so broad , about the treaties, I don’t know how to respond succinctly.

But...

May is very easily shredded, for sure.

*We* know she’s sawn off one of her three legged stools.

Corbyn should be able to rinse this, but will he?

 

[gosub]

Your overall point is so broad , about the treaties, I don’t know how to respond succinctly.

But...

May is very easily shredded, for sure.

*We* know she’s sawn off one of her three legged stools.

Corbyn should be able to rinse this, but will he?

Don't care. Its UK Parliament's time to step up to the plate.

 

[andysays]

Now May and Corbyn are disagreeing on whether BBC or ITV should broadcast the debate...

 

[gentlegreen]

Apparently there's some sort of "reality" TV show that has to be avoided ...

 

[Crispy]

Have I missed the bit where someone stated the purpose of this "debate" ?
There is no currently scheduled election or referendum to campaign for, so what exactly is the point?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Apparently there's some sort of "reality" TV show that has to be avoided ...

That's the 'debate'.

 

[danny la rouge]

Apparently there's some sort of "reality" TV show that has to be avoided ...

Like Corbyn, I plan to watch the I’m A Celebrity final.

 

[paolo]

More cut and paste from today:

May's fudging the extension question.

--------

Answering questions from Sarah Wollaston [snip]

“There’s a paradox here,” May said. “To extend article 50, actually, you’re then in the business of renegotiating the deal. This is the point. The deal is the deal at this point in time.”

Pressed on whether this was the case, May reiterated the argument: “What is clear is that any extension to article 50, anything like that, reopens the negotiations, reopens the deal. And at that point the deal can go, frankly, in any direction.”
But asked by Wollaston whether the EU had directly told her this, May dodged the question, saying: “What has been made clear is this is the deal that we have negotiated with the European Union.”

 

[danny la rouge]

Have I missed the bit where someone stated the purpose of this "debate" ?
There is no currently scheduled election or referendum to campaign for, so what exactly is the point?

It’s so the MPs - who are voting two days after it - can record it and vote the way they were going to vote anyway.

 

[andysays]

Like Corbyn, I plan to watch the I’m A Celebrity final.

I always thought of you as more Strictly Come Dancing, TBH

 

[danny la rouge]

I always thought of you as more Strictly Come Dancing, TBH

The Strictly results show is on just after Dr Who, so it’ll be a busy schedule for me that night, but I’ll cope.