Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Beermoth]

Now May and Corbyn are disagreeing on whether BBC or ITV should broadcast the debate...

Let's have a referendum on it!

 

[kabbes]

Can someone tell me what is "plus" about "Norway plus"? I know this means I am using urban as a cheap way for me to find out stuff but hey, that's what you're all here for, right?

 

[DotCommunist]

All these scenarios emphasise GDP growth, which obscures more than it explains. As Aditya Chakrabortty wrote last year, average growth figures gloss over huge regional (and therefore, class) disparities. London and the South-East grows, while elsewhere shrinks. Relying on GDP figures, you can end up feet in the freezer and head in the fire, claiming everything is fine because your average body temperature is 37 degrees.

Economic growth has become detached from other indices like wages. Even though the economy is larger on average than it was in 2008 (though it is a weaker recovery than in the 1930s), average wages are much lower. The lost decade in living standards began well before Brexit was a reality. Indeed, that may well have been one of the causes of the Brexit vote. So, these are projections based on a measurement of growth that the majority of people currently do not experience.

The unknowable cost of Brexit | Richard Seymour on Patreon
I think we've discussed the issues with GDP earlier in the thread but that metaphor is useful to me.

 

[kabbes]

GDP is awful as a measure of success. For example, you can get great GDP growth by making really shoddy products and services that regularly fail, but nobody's going to be happy as a result. You can also get good GDP growth by allowing the black market to flourish or stomping down on labour costs even whilst this accumulates the wealth up to a few shareholders.

 

[Pickman's model]

Now May and Corbyn are disagreeing on whether BBC or ITV should broadcast the debate...

sky

 

[belboid]

GDP is awful as a measure of success. For example, you can get great GDP growth by making really shoddy products and services that regularly fail, but nobody's going to be happy as a result. You can also get good GDP growth by allowing the black market to flourish or stomping down on labour costs even whilst this accumulates the wealth up to a few shareholders.

not sure about the black market bit. I read something (somewhere...) about how including counterfeit goods, drugs and prostitution would increase the Italian GDP (iirr) by almost 10%

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Can someone tell me what is "plus" about "Norway plus"? I know this means I am using urban as a cheap way for me to find out stuff but hey, that's what you're all here for, right?

It's loads better than Norway minus and significantly better than Norway equals.

 

[kabbes]

not sure about the black market bit. I read something (somewhere...) about how including counterfeit goods, drugs and prostitution would increase the Italian GDP (iirr) by almost 10%

No, GDP includes the black market. It's because it's supposed to be an international comparitor, so you have to include everything that might ever be legal anywhere.

 

[Pickman's model]

No, GDP includes the black market. It's because it's supposed to be an international comparitor, so you have to include everything that might ever be legal anywhere.

drivel and tosh, the babblings of a fool.

it's to comply with eu rules (see also this for confirmation)

 

[Raheem]

Can someone tell me what is "plus" about "Norway plus"? I know this means I am using urban as a cheap way for me to find out stuff but hey, that's what you're all here for, right?

Think it is "plus customs union".

 

[belboid]

No, GDP includes the black market. It's because it's supposed to be an international comparitor, so you have to include everything that might ever be legal anywhere.

changed in 2014 google tells me. Added a mere £10billion to the UK economy.

I don't think everyone (in the EU) adopted it straight away, it was only best practise guidance originally.

 

[Raheem]

Not sure i follow Raheem - he explicitly says No Deal is IMplausible to the commons, hence bouncing off it quickly and on to the last option standing, May's Deal.
Art 50 extension, even if it does happen, buys between 2 to maybe 4 months, going on accounts in the press, and runs into the problem of the UK getting drawn into the next wave of EU fees. It doesn't magic away having to choose one of the inevitable conclusions.

No, but it makes conclusions other than no deal possible. Bush's scenario doesn't take account of this. MPs wouldn't be forced into backing May's deal because no deal is the only alternative. Instead, they would call the Prime Minister's bluff.

 

[kabbes]

It means you can increase (UK) GDP by allowing the (UK) black market to flourish.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Think it is "plus customs union".

Yes, this seems to be right. Of course, that is 'Norway minus' to some people, depending on their point of view. Need to remain in customs union to keep the Irish border properly open to avoid problems such as those outlined here.

Many people in Norway question the wisdom of their own Norway solution. I struggle to see any benefit over the existing arrangement for the UK of any equals, plus or minus configuration - point there to those who don't want greater EU integration, the UK already has a semi-detached, bespoke EU membership of a kind that the likes of Norway would struggle to get.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Have I missed the bit where someone stated the purpose of this "debate" ?
There is no currently scheduled election or referendum to campaign for, so what exactly is the point?

I would guess it's a tacit admission that there's going to be an election sooner or later and an attempt to have a debate on the strongest possible ground for May (ie Brexit and her deal) rather than the respective parties plans for govt. If Corbyn does badly and gets slated he will struggle to demand a debate when there is an election.

 

[andysays]

Let's have a referendum on it!

Or at least a thread

 

[Wilf]

Here's Tusk ruling out further negotiations - essentially, if you vote the deal down your only choices are no deal or remain. I'm genuinely unsure what his strategy is with this: is he supporting May's deal or his he putting remain back on the agenda at, what he would see as, a strategic moment?
No deal or no Brexit if MPs vote down May plan, says Tusk
Suppose what I'm also getting at is he isn't offering much to corbyn - no sense that he might assume the reins and then have another go at making a deal.

 

[danny la rouge]

Can someone tell me what is "plus" about "Norway plus"? I know this means I am using urban as a cheap way for me to find out stuff but hey, that's what you're all here for, right?

Norway Plus: The pluses and minuses of a Norway plus deal.

 

[andysays]

Here's Tusk ruling out further negotiations - essentially, if you vote the deal down your only choices are no deal or remain. I'm genuinely unsure what his strategy is with this: is he supporting May's deal or his he putting remain back on the agenda at, what he would see as, a strategic moment?
No deal or no Brexit if MPs vote down May plan, says Tusk
Suppose what I'm also getting at is he isn't offering much to corbyn - no sense that he might assume the reins and then have another go at making a deal.

Interesting that he's explicitly included not leaving as an option, before the ECJ ruling on whether A50 can be withdrawn.

Maybe he has some insider knowledge of how that decision will go...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Here's Tusk ruling out further negotiations - essentially, if you vote the deal down your only choices are no deal or remain. I'm genuinely unsure what his strategy is with this: is he supporting May's deal or his he putting remain back on the agenda at, what he would see as, a strategic moment?
No deal or no Brexit if MPs vote down May plan, says Tusk
Suppose what I'm also getting at is he isn't offering much to corbyn - no sense that he might assume the reins and then have another go at making a deal.

What actual power does Tusk have here? He's not the decision-maker in all this - if the UK goes to the important actors and asks for new negotiations, they get new negotiations, no? And Tusk isn't an important actor - people like Merkel and Macron are. All the stuff being said now about what may or may not be possible if this deal is voted down is mostly hot air.

 

[danny la rouge]

But sounds like you think freedom of movement is an acceptable part in reckoning with the neoliberal project

Not sure what you mean here. ‘Freedom of movement’ as we know it is a policy of the neoliberal project.

To save me re-writing:

Urban v's the Commentariat

 

[Pickman's model]

What actual power does Tusk have here? He's not the decision-maker in all this - if the UK goes to the important actors and asks for new negotiations, they get new negotiations, no? And Tusk isn't an important actor - people like Merkel and Macron are. All the stuff being said now about what may or may not be possible if this deal is voted down is mostly hot air.

drivel. utter feeble drivel. two years ago so many people said all the countries would be trying to drive hard bargains with us, we can play off one against another - as you're saying here in fact. and it was tosh then, as the eu countries decided to have one negotiating team. and now you think they'll change that in future.

 

[ska invita]

Not sure what you mean here. ‘Freedom of movement’ as we know it is a policy of the neoliberal project.

To save me re-writing:

Urban v's the Commentariat

exactly - and you're supporting it by supporting Norway (over May's deal) ??

 

[danny la rouge]

exactly - and you're supporting it by supporting Norway (over May's deal) ??

I’m not supporting Norway plus.

Is Brexit actually going to happen?

 

[Pickman's model]

Here's Tusk ruling out further negotiations - essentially, if you vote the deal down your only choices are no deal or remain. I'm genuinely unsure what his strategy is with this: is he supporting May's deal or his he putting remain back on the agenda at, what he would see as, a strategic moment?
No deal or no Brexit if MPs vote down May plan, says Tusk
Suppose what I'm also getting at is he isn't offering much to corbyn - no sense that he might assume the reins and then have another go at making a deal.

i don't know why you or anyone else thinks he might or he should offer much to corbyn. what happened was the uk got to do its thing: if people here wanted things done differently, it makes no odds to the eu. there was a certain amount of time for chitchat and banter about the terms of the agreement, which has now passed. it's less democratic to think that the eu should reset the clock to give someone else a go than it is to propose a second referendum.

 

[ska invita]

I’m not supporting Norway plus.

youve said it was better option than Mays deal by some distance ?

If you’re asking me to rank May’s deal and Norway+ (not that I’ve read May’s deal, only bits along with reports of what’s in it), then that’s, relatively speaking, Norway+ ahead of May’s deal by some distance.

Mays deal = no more free movement (points based immigration), Norway = free movement

We're having this conversation in the context of What Should The Labour Partys position be on immigration (a la Brexit).
I know you dont want to enter a two-option discussion, but thats what Labour is faced with (Norway or May) in the real world. And we're both critical about their lack of clarity on the fact that:

(Labour needs) to decide its relationship to the neoliberal project. It still hasn't worked that out.

And the thorny issue they face is Free Movement...

is a policy of the neoliberal project.

Im not trying to catch you out, but this is an example of the bind.

 

[danny la rouge]

youve said it was better option than Mays deal by some distance ?

And I think it is. I still don’t back it.

 

[Pickman's model]

youve said it was better option than Mays deal by some distance ?

Mays deal = no more free movement (points based immigration), Norway = free movement

We're having this conversation in the context of What Should The Labour Partys position be on immigration (a la Brexit).
I know you dont want to enter a two-option discussion, but thats what Labour is faced with (Norway or May) in the real world. And we're both critical about their lack of clarity on the fact that:

And the thorny issue they face is Free Movement...

Im not trying to catch you out, but this is an example of the bind.

eu migration into the uk has greatly declined, and since at least 2012 has never been as great as non-eu migration which has increased as eu migration has declined. even if you plug free movement it does not halt immigration. people coming in just come from somewhere else, is all.

 

[andysays]

youve said it was better option than Mays deal by some distance ?

Mays deal = no more free movement (points based immigration), Norway = free movement

We're having this conversation in the context of What Should The Labour Partys position be on immigration (a la Brexit).
I know you dont want to enter a two-option discussion, but thats what Labour is faced with (Norway or May) in the real world. And we're both critical about their lack of clarity on the fact that:

And the thorny issue they face is Free Movement...

Im not trying to catch you out, but this is an example of the bind.

Norway plus or whatever it's called doesn't mean genuine free movement, it means 'free movement' as defined by the neo liberal terms of the EU within the EU and EFTA and excluding those from outside the EU

 

[ska invita]

eu migration into the uk has greatly declined, and since at least 2012 has never been as great as non-eu migration which has increased as eu migration has declined. even if you plug free movement it does not halt immigration. people coming in just come from somewhere else, is all.

i'm happy with "free movement" personally, and would be happy with Norway over May's deal. But that may make me a lexit traitor, i don't know.

Norway plus or whatever it's called doesn't mean genuine free movement, it means 'free movement' as defined by the neo liberal terms of the EU within the EU and EFTA and excluding those from outside the EU

yes, we've done this over and over, but we know what it means in terms of a Norway style deal, which is the context.