Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[mauvais]

Sorry but like butchers and Spiney I find the idea that there is some break point in the 70s/80s where parliamentary politics became the "dominant force for change" wrongheaded.

It's maybe just language but I think that puts it positively, rather than negatively - the idea that PP actively gained dominance rather than everything else getting fucked, and an implication that it's a good thing or something that should now be used, neither of which is what I'm saying. Maybe we have a fundamentally different view on this, but do you not think that practical working organisation took a lot of damage that it's not recovered from in any meaningful way? To deny that is to deny the shifts in society, is it not? And maybe we're talking in different framings; maybe beneath all of that, in the longer term, you're right and the current trends are irrelevant - people will ultimately resolve matters positively for themselves. But then the question I've been asking about that is how long and how much interim pain to get there.

(my emphasis) You've pretty much just made my argument. You don't trust the power of the workers, or if you prefer people. You do see the need for somebody to lead/guide them to the correct path.

I'm cautious of trying to describe this in any detail because it ends up being a circular entanglement over specifics & particularly my loose wording, but: 'somebody' is not right, at least not in an explicit sense. If you think my idea is that some organisation or singular glorious leader is a necessary ingredient to swoop in and rescue us by enacting great change, then no, it's not that. But it is about something woolier, the presence of an idea or even ideology that comes through despite obstacles and challenges, and is propagated along the way by advocates at the very least.

I mean, to take an example, 'the American Dream' that I think the UK has adopted to a large extent, and which powers individualism, doesn't have a tangible leader, at least not now. But it is for many a credible narrative that excludes the possibility of the opposite. What's required for the opposite to take hold? You seem to think it will naturally happen; I think it probably requires a push. That push might be an active effort or it might be a destabilising event (more than just Brexit itself) but I don't see it happening by itself, even under worsening conditions. I feel like the last decade or more demonstrates that.

What BA said, this is the wrong way around.

In this country in our system (or obvious forthcoming versions of it) at present. Not holistically.

 

[SpineyNorman]

If you can't manage more than that, then there's no point bothering with this, is there. You asked.

I can't manage more than that because your post didn't make sense. That's not my fault.

 

[mauvais]

I can't manage more than that because your post didn't make sense. That's not my fault.

What is the "main force for and check on change" outside of PP that you think demonstrably exists in Britain right now?

 

[redsquirrel]

If the majority of the population has the same interests in common then democracy is the answer.

Yes, yes it is. Which is why those who trust in workers have also been arguing for greater democratic control of communities and workplaces.

 

[mojo pixy]

You don't trust the power of the workers, or if you prefer people. You do see the need for somebody to lead/guide them to the correct path.

Still though "people's" movements are still led; usually by charismatic individuals and small groups, committees, parties. People don't spontaneously rise up en masse, they are always provoked to do so. And usually they need to be hungry and desperate before they begin.

There's no way the UK is going to see anything like this, probably not in my lifetime. We are too comfortable, even the WC here is bourgeois in aspiration, the last thing we want here is to tear down what so many of us aspire to be. Brexit as it stands is a bourgeois movement, there is no benefit in it for the working class. Actually I believe the hope of the key brexiters has always been a weakening and cheapening of labour. Dyson, Farage, Rees-Mogg, Banks etc don't want a strong, solid working class.

Brexit is not for us, it's for them.

 

[SpineyNorman]

What is the "main force for and check on change" outside of PP that you think demonstrably exists in Britain right now?

I don't think there is a single one (there's a gaping political vacuum right now) but the working class, capital in the apparent form of markets and the EU are three.

Brexit.

 

[mauvais]

I don't think there is a single one (there's a gaping political vacuum right now) but the working class, capital in the apparent form of markets and the EU are three.

Brexit.

OK. I looked at this and I thought, 'that's not the question I asked', but then I went back and found that hard to back up.

I've been looking at this as a matter of what can happen - in the vacuum of Brexit - such that centre-right PP is disrupted by something that benefits people rather than capital. However, you said, and I should have picked up on this:

I see the main force for change at the moment as 'the markets' (so capital) and politicians as pretty much powerless to stop or alter it. Just as when labour (note the small l, it's not always about parties) had the upper hand they were forced into changes that cohered with the balance of forces back then.

I don't agree with that. I see British politicians as not the victim or hostage of global capital or markets but an eager participant in it. I think there's a lot of latitude that comes with the starting point of one of the strongest economies, and much of what's being done is done by choice. I don't want to point to the narrow spectrum of possibilities under our current framework and say 'look how much better it could be', because shades of shit are still shit, but when it comes to, say, austerity, a lot of those choices are domestic, not externally enforced. We're not automatically Greece. There's also a wide range of open risks/opportunities relating to conditions that would be opened up by Brexit that are not so directly linked to strong economic forces and again are a matter of free choice for British governments.

What's the point of this?

I look at this picture and I see a hostile government that I think has a high degree of control over what happens, with no domestic resistance to it, and therefore I say parliament is in charge of what happens to the vacuum of Brexit, not the people.

You see a government and people that you think are both powerless against the external, so you say the external is in charge, and I guess you feel that removal of an element of that opens the door to the people if not the government. They're not irreconcilable positions but it's not straightforward.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

well that's all right then...

 

[SpackleFrog]

Still though "people's" movements are still led; usually by charismatic individuals and small groups, committees, parties. People don't spontaneously rise up en masse, they are always provoked to do so. And usually they need to be hungry and desperate before they begin.

There's no way the UK is going to see anything like this, probably not in my lifetime. We are too comfortable, even the WC here is bourgeois in aspiration, the last thing we want here is to tear down what so many of us aspire to be.

 

[mojo pixy]

Words?

 

[danny la rouge]

Between the lines of age.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Still though "people's" movements are still led; usually by charismatic individuals and small groups, committees, parties. People don't spontaneously rise up en masse, they are always provoked to do so. And usually they need to be hungry and desperate before they begin.

There's no way the UK is going to see anything like this, probably not in my lifetime. We are too comfortable, even the WC here is bourgeois in aspiration, the last thing we want here is to tear down what so many of us aspire to be. Brexit as it stands is a bourgeois movement, there is no benefit in it for the working class. Actually I believe the hope of the key brexiters has always been a weakening and cheapening of labour. Dyson, Farage, Rees-Mogg, Banks etc don't want a strong, solid working class.

Brexit is not for us, it's for them.

What a lot of shite! Are the foodbanks there for show? The one in Orkney gets a lot of trade and this is apparently a bourgeoise paradise. Fuck there really is an “underclass” isn’t there.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I would like to post re “working class are bourgeoise in their aspirations” but it’s all coming oot angry at the moment- bit close to the bone. Saved for the morn.
Ends—————

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Talking to a Bulgarian friend tonight, who has realised that her recent low-level depression has been in part fuelled by brexit and worries about brexit. She took out British citizenship, with all the expense and hassle that now involves, but is still worried about the way the country is going to the extent of not being sure she wants to stay here much longer.

This shit feeds into other shit for a great many people, none of whom deserve it. Britain has already become a meaner place because of this referendum, regardless of what happens from now on. People are suffering because of that.

 

[teqniq]

IEA withdraws rival Brexit report after charity watchdog's investigation

 

[mojo pixy]

What a lot of shite! Are the foodbanks there for show? The one in Orkney gets a lot of trade and this is apparently a bourgeoise paradise. Fuck there really is an “underclass” isn’t there.

It'll need to get worse than food banks before a revolution comes.

 

[Pickman's model]

It'll need to get worse than food banks before a revolution comes.

Food loan sharks

 

[mojo pixy]

The army doling out rations to ordely queues in car parks. Brexit means Brexit.

 

[Pickman's model]

The army doling out rations to ordely queues in car parks. Brexit means Brexit.

No, more like deaths from starvation
Rickets
Scurvy
The country's best days are in the future

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

The army doling out rations to ordely queues in car parks. Brexit means Brexit.

U.K. working class are too bourgeoise.
Revolution.
Ration queues.

Maybe chat to you when you relinquish post of Chief Dramatist haha

 

[mojo pixy]

No, more like deaths from starvation

And from the army.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

No, more like deaths from starvation
Rickets
Scurvy
The country's best days are in the future

We’ve got TB in high rise flats will that do for drama?

 

[Pickman's model]

We’ve got TB in high rise flats will that do for drama?

it was just for starters

Back in the day there were specialist TB hospitals, certainly in hackney. Now they're needed where are they?

 

[mojo pixy]

U.K. working class are too bourgeoise.
Revolution.
Ration queues.

Maybe chat to you when you relinquish post of Chief Dramatist haha

Chief dramatist is fine. I don't seriously think it'll be ration queues in car parks - but I do think revolution isn't going to happen because most people, even most of us (and I am) working class to be honest, have got more to lose that way. Revolutions come when most people have fuck all to lose, and we are along, long, long, long long long long way from that.

The reason revolution comes up at all here isn't really my doing. There's talk of a socialist version of a post-brexit UK, but little in the way of how that can happen in stages, concrete plans etc. And that's fine, but in that case Revolution as a means to that end just sort of hangs there like, you know, historical precedent. Hard not to look that way, in the absence of any other plan to study.

And it won't happen, not here, not now. ''Ration queues in car parks'' is more likely than ''A socialist revolution'' in the UK just now.

I am open to optimism btw, I just don't carry a lot around with me.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Guys you are confusing me. Which statement are you going with- everyone in the U.K. is too comfortable to move or is it rickets, rations and TB?

 

[mojo pixy]

The mistake is ''everyone''. That's not really a thing, politically.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

The mistake is ''everyone''. That's not really a thing, politically.

Thanks for clarifying. I’ll run that edit through your last few posts and we will say no more about it.

 

[mojo pixy]

I may, you don't have to.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Chief dramatist is fine. I don't seriously think it'll be ration queues in car parks - but I do think revolution isn't going to happen because most people, even most of us (and I am) working class to be honest, have got more to lose that way. Revolutions come when most people have fuck all to lose, and we are along, long, long, long long long long way from that.

The reason revolution comes up at all here isn't really my doing. There's talk of a socialist version of a post-brexit UK, but little in the way of how that can happen in stages, concrete plans etc. And that's fine, but in that case Revolution as a means to that end just sort of hangs there like, you know, historical precedent. Hard not to look that way, in the absence of any other plan to study.

And it won't happen, not here, not now. ''Ration queues in car parks'' is more likely than ''A socialist revolution'' in the UK just now.

I am open to optimism btw, I just don't carry a lot around with me.

Who mentioned “a socialist revolution”
I’m not suggesting there should never be such a thing, but it’s hardly the only example of workers challenging their relationship with capital. Perhaps you have a more nuanced perspective on this subject but you seem to be encapsulating the situation in a kinda childish way, and then projecting these ideas onto people that haven’t really expressed them. At least not on this thread anyway.

 

[mojo pixy]

You know what, I'm not projecting anything on anyone. I'm playing out my own little dystopian post-brexit fantasy (we all have 'em, come on) and you're responding like it's way more than that. Fair enough, but it's not.