Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Wilf]

My record isn't much better - did get 2017 right though. But my feeling is increasingly that this won't get through. In some ways it ties the UK even closer to the EU than doing nothing. It pleases nobody and the threat that it is this or crashing out is a hollow one. It will be even more hollow when the ejc rules that a50 can be extended.

I think the idea that instead of the Norway model or Canada model we in fact are presented with the Moldova model could gain traction.

Must admit I've lapsed into a the kind of politics free punditry you get from... pundits. The Tories want it go away, that don't want nothing, they don't want Corbyn - there's a possibility it the deal will meander through as the choice of the exhausted and defeated. It will certainly be a betrayal for anybody near the erg, but I just have a feeling the rest of the Tories are silently meandering into the territory of a close vote, lots of pressure on the night, MPs in tears (hopefully). At the very least, It's a scenario, bleary eyed MPs coming out with stuff the day after along the lines of 'it wasn't what I wanted, but in the end I... cont. p.94).

 

[Supine]

Dance like nobody is watching you.

Brexit like nobody's watching us

 

[ska invita]

If deal doesn't go through and May stands down it's a three month Tory election process. They might just about pick someone by the middle of March. Lol.

During that period I presume deputy prime minister takes over? One David Livington I presume.

 

[Crispy]

Either that or GE. Losing a high level but of legislation like this, by as large a margin as is being threatened, is surely enough?

 

[ska invita]

Either that or GE. Losing a high level but of legislation like this, by as large a margin as is being threatened, is surely enough?

Without a block/extension to A50 both elections are not neutral exercises but would lead to a no deal by default.

They don't have to call a GE, and why would they

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Without a block/extension to A50 both elections are not neutral exercises but would lead to a no deal by default.

They don't have to call a GE, and why would they

Because that would show that they can't govern. It's not so different from losing a budget vote or queen's speech vote

 

[Kaka Tim]

if anything - the number of mps prepared to vote against the deal seems to growing -

Theresa May prepares to face biggest threat to date: the Tory party

i guess as more depressing details about it emerge. the brexiteers have an open goal on this - the exit deal is shit on so many levels - and the glorious sunny uplands of control being taken back and and end to free movement rest on trusting Mays absolute determination and ability to sort it all out during the transition period.

Whats staggering is that the blocs to any sort of meaningful deal were completely clear from the start - but it has taken all that time for that reality to be accepted by the government. Why the fuck did she paint herself into a corner almost straight away by "red lining" everything but a hard brexit and then kicking the can down the road until the road ran out and she crashed into a big sign saying "complete and utterly humiliating climbdown" ?

 

[gosub]

Chancellor pledges £66m for Northern Ireland schools ahead of DUP conference speech - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

 

[alex_]

Chancellor pledges £66m for Northern Ireland schools ahead of DUP conference speech - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

They might have found the magic money tree in Ulster after all.

 

[Sprocket.]

Thar Brexit, thar mendsit!

 

[DexterTCN]

Chancellor pledges £66m for Northern Ireland schools ahead of DUP conference speech - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

Not all of them, I'm betting.

 

[Poi E]

Whats staggering is that the blocs to any sort of meaningful deal were completely clear from the start - but it has taken all that time for that reality to be accepted by the government. Why the fuck did she paint herself into a corner almost straight away by "red lining" everything but a hard brexit and then kicking the can down the road until the road ran out and she crashed into a big sign saying "complete and utterly humiliating climbdown" ?

The lady's not for learning.

 

[mauvais]

Because that would show that they can't govern. It's not so different from losing a budget vote or queen's speech vote

Fixed Term Parliament Act arguably means it needs to be in the majority self-interest. Quite how that pans out, who knows. Tory gambling hasn't necessarily been rational to date, has it.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

if anything - the number of mps prepared to vote against the deal seems to growing -

Theresa May prepares to face biggest threat to date: the Tory party

i guess as more depressing details about it emerge. the brexiteers have an open goal on this - the exit deal is shit on so many levels - and the glorious sunny uplands of control being taken back and and end to free movement rest on trusting Mays absolute determination and ability to sort it all out during the transition period.

Whats staggering is that the blocs to any sort of meaningful deal were completely clear from the start - but it has taken all that time for that reality to be accepted by the government. Why the fuck did she paint herself into a corner almost straight away by "red lining" everything but a hard brexit and then kicking the can down the road until the road ran out and she crashed into a big sign saying "complete and utterly humiliating climbdown" ?

Two options:

No Brexit.

Or

Hard Brexit.

Hard Brexit won’t be great, but won’t be the end of days the ‘remoaners’ make out either. It will be bad if jack shit is decided in advance, but with planning on both sides it can be smooth and orderly.

In any divorce things get shitty on both sides, then once separated they hopefully get better for each party. What we have here is one side who wants to leave for party time, but doesn’t want to lose having their dinner on the table at six and a shag every now and then, and another side who is bitter about the affrontery and wishes to fuck them up unless they can be bullied in to staying.

Unedifying, to say the least.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

You need to put something over your caps lock to prevent it being turned on accidentally

I would if I was in the habit of turning on caps accidentally YA DICK

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Two options:

No Brexit.

Or

Hard Brexit.

Hard Brexit won’t be great, but won’t be the end of days the ‘remoaners’ make out either. It will be bad if jack shit is decided in advance, but with planning on both sides it can be smooth and orderly.
.

To be fair smooth and orderly from their point of view doesn’t always look the same this side of the fence.

 

[Raheem]

Whats staggering is that the blocs to any sort of meaningful deal were completely clear from the start - but it has taken all that time for that reality to be accepted by the government. Why the fuck did she paint herself into a corner almost straight away by "red lining" everything but a hard brexit and then kicking the can down the road until the road ran out and she crashed into a big sign saying "complete and utterly humiliating climbdown" ?

Think she was just plain terrified of the Brexit hardliners and her strategy was to string them along and then hit them with reality as late in the game as possible. But, yeah, pretty obvious flaw in that strategy. I actually think her deal could be sailing through in a parallel universe where she had been preparing the ground for it with her party. So I'm not so sure she's done a terrible job in negotiating with the EU. But she's done a fucking excellent job of making sure it was a waste of everyone's time.

 

[Sprocket.]

They might have found the magic money tree in Ulster after all.

Why don’t the Tories stop fucking about and just revert to their old name of Conservative and Unionist Party. They deserve each other so much.

 

[Winot]

Two options:

No Brexit.

Or

Hard Brexit.

Hard Brexit won’t be great, but won’t be the end of days the ‘remoaners’ make out either. It will be bad if jack shit is decided in advance, but with planning on both sides it can be smooth and orderly.

In any divorce things get shitty on both sides, then once separated they hopefully get better for each party. What we have here is one side who wants to leave for party time, but doesn’t want to lose having their dinner on the table at six and a shag every now and then, and another side who is bitter about the affrontery and wishes to fuck them up unless they can be bullied in to staying.

Unedifying, to say the least.

Hard Brexit is the macho choice of the hard-of-understanding, the frustrated bloke in the pub who can’t be dealing with detail and wants to tell those Frenchies where to stick it. It’s the small businessman who runs his own firm and tells his staff “Just get it done OK?” when they try to get him to engage with complexity. It’s David Davies boasting that “This will be the easiest trade deal in history” because he was in the fucking SAS.

Nobody with any sense wants a hard Brexit.

 

[DexterTCN]

Hard Brexit is the macho choice of the hard-of-understanding, the frustrated bloke in the pub who can’t be dealing with detail and wants to tell those Frenchies where to stick it. It’s the small businessman who runs his own firm and tells his staff “Just get it done OK?” when they try to get him to engage with complexity. It’s David Davies boasting that “This will be the easiest trade deal in history” because he was in the fucking SAS.

Nobody with any sense wants a hard Brexit.

Unless they're very rich and see a chance to get richer and are amoral, obviously.

 

[DotCommunist]

Leavers are the ones who walk away from omelas and remainers are the ones who do not.

I have more, and more torturous, analogies to bring. But what with the car crash one, the four weddings and a divorce or three stories, well I think the allegorical bantz may have reached over saturation for one lifetime

 

[Yossarian]

Leavers are the ones who walk away from omelas

...only to stop just outside the gates while an argument develops among those who think keeping the child in the cellar is wrong and those who think they could have an Omelas twice as good if they had two children in a cellar.

 

[DotCommunist]

...only to stop just outside the gates while an argument develops among those who think keeping the child in the cellar is wrong and those who think they could have an Omelas twice as good if they had two children in a cellar.

don't stretch a strained allegory! it'll snap and hit me in the eye

 

[Badgers]

I thought it was all done and sorted?

 

[gosub]

 

[ska invita]

Good article going through procedure.. sounds like it knows what its talking about. Though as ever there's a few Ifs and Coulds.

The bit about second ref is guardian click bait sub editing, though it does consider that eventuality

We’re heading for a second referendum – and maybe a third | Vernon Bogdanor

 

[paolo]

Good post, just watched it all.

 

[Winot]

Good article going through procedure.. sounds like it knows what its talking about. Though as ever there's a few Ifs and Coulds.

The bit about second ref is guardian click bait sub editing, though it does consider that eventuality

We’re heading for a second referendum – and maybe a third | Vernon Bogdanor

Yes it’s very good. Summarises clearly the mess we’re in.

 

[alex_]

Hard Brexit won’t be great, but won’t be the end of days the ‘remoaners’ make out either. It will be bad if jack shit is decided in advance, but with planning on both sides it can be smooth and orderly.

So hard brexit will be ok if there is a deal?

Alex