Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[redsquirrel]

I genuinely have no idea what posts you are talking about.

You have previously argued that leaving the EU was more important than anything else.

Now, leaving the EU is all consuming. It's more important than anything else. We don't even know why we're doing it anymore, because we still don't know what it means yet.

When I pointed out the logic of this position means you are arguing for a coalition with Tory Remainers you stated

Grumbly remainer. Never, ever, Tory.

Now in response to SpackleFrog 's question

Would you be happy then if we had a 2nd referendum, Brexit was stopped and May stayed in power?

You agreed with the proposition that stopping the EU leaving the UK was the priority.

Ideally the Tories lose power. However, we have elections every 5 years so they can be turfed out next time. Brexit is potentially permanent.

That.

You jump from one position to another not actually thinking about the actually consequences of that position so long as it superficially supports the UK staying the EU somehow. What actually are your politics beyond staying in the UK? Or is that all they amount to?

If you want to make a argument for a 2nd referendum or for parliament to ignore the results of the 2016 referendum then please do so but follow the logic of your positions through.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

it may seem non virtuous to someone like yourself, but alas, this is how reality is

I for one, if stuck right at the bottom in my own country, wouldn't want massive extra competition, and it's a common sentiment to be heard in those parts

Not anymore common than it is to hear it from well off right wing types, and in “those parts” such a sentiment wouldn’t often go unchallenged in my experience.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Fuck. Me.

Never mind the Blairite betrayals. Social Democracy can fuck itself up, all on its own.

Yeh. it's been doing that since 1914 to be fair.

 

[Wilf]

Labour have been coiled, ready to strike for 18 months. Silent, unmoving, but ready:

'The time has come'... hang on, I'm nearly ready... 'strike you fool!'... nearly there... 'it must be now!'... but we have the 6 tests... 'NOW!'...today is not the day...

 

[sleaterkinney]

Labour have been coiled, ready to strike for 18 months. Silent, unmoving, but ready:

'The time has come'... hang on, I'm nearly ready... 'strike you fool!'... nearly there... 'it must be now!'... but we have the 6 tests... 'NOW!'...today is not the day...

Can Corbyn be decisive about anything?. Look at how anti-Semitism dragged out.

 

[Wilf]

Can Corbyn be decisive about anything?. Look at how anti-Semitism dragged out.

Despite the way I presented it, I don't think the biggest problem is decisiveness. It's the failure to get out there and build something after the Brexit, to try and even construct some kind of lexit agenda - but by actually getting out into communities and making it a class issues. Not by repeating mantras about the 6 tests in tv interviews. In the absence of that spade work, all they are left with is something strategic, just a decision as to when they can get the most tories to peel off and somehow deliver a labour government by default. It's part of the reason that even in this week of all weeks, Labour are only 3% ahead.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Despite the way I presented it, I don't think the biggest problem is decisiveness. It's the failure to get out there and build something after the Brexit, to try and even construct some kind of lexit agenda - but by actually getting out into communities and making it a class issues. Not by repeating mantras about the 6 tests in tv interviews. In the absence of that spade work, all they are left with is something strategic, just a decision as to when they can get the most tories to peel off and somehow deliver a labour government by default. It's part of the reason that even in this week of all weeks, Labour are only 3% ahead.

They made two tactical errors, which leave them limited in options now.

First was to agree to support the referendum in the first place. There was no reason they had to vote for it. Up to the tories to push through their manifesto commitments - labour's manifesto had no such commitment at all. And they could easily have made the case that there shouldn't be a referendum until such a time as there is some kind of plan on the table for how it might be done and who might be doing it (a big point of difference from the Scottish indy ref, for example, a contrast that could have been drawn).

And second, there was no reason why they had to vote through the activation of A50. The reason would have been pretty much the same - you don't set the clock ticking until it is agreed what it is you're seeking and the issues around that (eg NI) have been debated. If the Tories want to do it, let them vote it through. No need to help them. You can make a reasoned argument that you think the process is in haste. But there was a collective rush to be the first and loudest to state that 'the referendum must be honoured', and that is a large part of what has led to now. And those who actually want brexit to happen should also now be regretting this haste. But no, first trigger A50 and bask in the glow of your democratic righteousness, then sit down and try to work out what it is you want and whether you can get it. Aside from anything else, the lack of a plan at the start of the process left the UK negotiators with few cards to play.

If Labour had taken a stand on either of those points, they would have a much freer hand in what they can now say. Leave the humiliating backtracking to the government, who after all created every single aspect of this mess.

 

[Wilf]

They made two tactical errors, which leave them limited in options now.

First was to agree to support the referendum in the first place. There was no reason they had to vote for it. Up to the tories to push through their manifesto commitments - labour's manifesto had no such commitment at all. And they could easily have made the case that there shouldn't be a referendum until such a time as there is some kind of plan on the table for how it might be done and who might be doing it (a big point of difference from the Scottish indy ref, for example, a contrast that could have been drawn).

And second, there was no reason why they had to vote through the activation of A50. The reason would have been pretty much the same - you don't set the clock ticking until it is agreed what it is you're seeking and the issues around that (eg NI) have been debated. If the Tories want to do it, let them vote it through. No need to help them. You can make a reasoned argument that you think the process is in haste. But there was a collective rush to be the first and loudest to state that 'the referendum must be honoured', and that is a large part of what has led to now. And those who actually want brexit to happen should also now be regretting this haste. But no, first trigger A50 and bask in the glow of your democratic righteousness, then sit down and try to work out what it is you want and whether you can get it. Aside from anything else, the lack of a plan at the start of the process left the UK negotiators with few cards to play.

If Labour had taken a stand on either of those points, they would have a much freer hand in what they can now say. Leave the humiliating backtracking to the government, who after all created every single aspect of this mess.

Not sure I agree about the first point (literally, I'm not sure). But certainly not diving in with article 50 would have given labour more ammo about things like the North and the rest. But I just think Labour should have been more active - not so much saying more and doing more, but giving voice to people who are still pissed off and bemused by the whole thing. Neither Labour or Tory are in contact with the working class in all its forms and neither have they learned the lessons of the Brexit vote itself. As it plays out over the next month or so it will still be another inter/intra-elite game.

 

[Winot]

Corbyn wanted Art. 50 triggered the morning after the referendum result.

 

[brogdale]

Corbyn wanted Art. 50 triggered the morning after the referendum result.

Which could be interpreted as consistent with his historical antipathy towards the supra-state...or a tactically astute move to highlight the impossibility of the right party of capital delivering a 'people's will' that damages capital.

 

[Supine]

Which could be interpreted as consistent with his historical antipathy towards the supra-state...or a tactically astute move to highlight the impossibility of the right party of capital delivering a 'people's will' that damages capital.

Or his total lack of understanding real world politics

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Or his total lack of understanding real world politics

oh he totally understands real world politics. I don't understand what opposition to the supra-state means either.

 

[Winot]

Which could be interpreted as consistent with his historical antipathy towards the supra-state...or a tactically astute move to highlight the impossibility of the right party of capital delivering a 'people's will' that damages capital.

Corbyn doesnt have a strategic bone in his body.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Corbyn doesnt have a strategic bone in his body.

we cast down all geniuses and exalted idiots, and that's that!

 

[Wilf]

Or his total lack of understanding real world politics

Don't think its that at all. The leadership are no doubt aware of their remain membership and different leave/remain areas in the country. Their solution to this conundrum has been to play it safe and not take risks - all the way through. For me it goes back to both Corbyn and the left's preference for mild social democratic activism over class politics. Its the Grand Old Duke of York rise in membership and all that. All those revivalist meetings when Corbyn was elected and now... not much. No engagement.*

*Edit: treelover usually puts me right when I get into one of these rants about Labour not doing or understanding the idea of communities, class and engagement. I'd be (genuinely) interested to know if anything like this has been done by Labour at the local level (on Brexit specifically).

 

[Supine]

oh he totally understands real world politics. I don't understand what opposition to the supra-state means either.

By calling to trigger article 50 immediately he proved beyond reasonable doubt that he understands nothing about negotiation, timing or politics. If he'd said OK the country has spoken - is up to the conservatives to go away and do the detailed analysis of what leaving entrails and the relevant cost /benefit analysis for each decision we'd be in a very different place.

 

[Supine]

Don't think its that at all. The leadership are no doubt aware of their remain membership and different leave/remain areas in the country. Their solution to this conundrum has been to play it safe and not take risks - all the way through. For me it goes back to both Corbyn and the left's preference for mild social democratic activism over class politics. Its the Grand Old Duke of York rise in membership and all that. All those revivalist meetings when Corbyn was elected and now... not much. No engagement.

I'm not a fan of class based politics but generally agree with you on this.

A big problem with politics at the moment is parties don't try to influence peoples ideas on subjects. They just go with opinion polls and try to pander to those people they think can potentially vote for them.

 

[The Fornicator]

The biggest problem is still Corbyn as a leader, and also the clueless Russ Abbott at Home Office. Should surely be 10-15 points ahead.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

By calling to trigger article 50 immediately he proved beyond reasonable doubt that he understands nothing about negotiation, timing or politics. If he'd said OK the country has spoken - is up to the conservatives to go away and do the detailed analysis of what leaving entrails and the relevant cost /benefit analysis for each decision we'd be in a very different place.

politics has nothing to do with negotiation. the time wasting was determined as an option before the 25th of June (because parliamentary politics is always about creating predeterminations.) it was all boxed from the outset. read my post on virtual violence on page 510. this is virtual state violence. it's gonna get much worse when they start using real violence against us and the left aren't prepared.

Edit: I don't mean determination in rubbing together ur hands and cackling evily. I mean the inherent constraints in the parliamentary system determine the choices long before its foot soldiers are even aware of what they are doing, and even then they will use all kinds of wacko ideologies to justify what they are doing in a confused and muddled way.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

I'm not a fan of class based politics but generally agree with you on this.

A big problem with politics at the moment is parties don't try to influence peoples ideas on subjects. They just go with opinion polls and try to pander to those people they think can potentially vote for them.

There is no such thing as a non-class-based politics. it is scientifically impossible unless you believe in God. but even then it's a stretch to defend such a position. anything that presents itself as such is class based, just more than not it is based on the reproduction of the opposing class.

 

[not-bono-ever]

aside/

from a senior civil servant the other night- at least this car crash has reached the kinetic stage

I though that was quite witty

 

[Poi E]

The car hasn't crashed yet. We're still sliding.

 

[Supine]

There is no such thing as a non-class-based politics. it is scientifically impossible unless you believe in God. but even then it's a stretch to defend such a position. anything that presents itself as such is class based, just more than not it is based on the reproduction of the opposing class.

Class is irrelevant. Brexit is a shit idea for everyone in the UK apart from a small number of disaster capitalists who will use financial market moves to make money.

 

[Supine]

The car hasn't crashed yet. We're still sliding.

Tune in for season 2 of Breaking Brexit...

 

[ManchesterBeth]

youve got that back to front. whatever the result, even if remain loses, remainers will win. neither lexit nor lemain exists.

 

[agricola]

The biggest problem is still Corbyn as a leader, and also the clueless Russ Abbott at Home Office. Should surely be 10-15 points ahead.

By the way, the most Labour have ever got in an election is 47% of the vote, with the next biggest 43%. The polls have them around 40% at present.

 

[Wilf]

neither lexit nor lemain exists.

Yes, this has defined the whole thing. Remainy liberals have had the greatest delusion about this... neoliberalism as 'progressivism', certainly. But that's a fixed point, business as usual. The absence of any kind of lexit has allowed the whole process to be reduced down to parliamentary manoeuvres, the lack of 48 letters, John McDonnell deciding Labour might do something or other at some point etc.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

The cab has turned up, but the person that booked it hasn’t left their house.

The meter is now running, for being at standstill.

aside/

from a senior civil servant the other night- at least this car crash has reached the kinetic stage

I though that was quite witty

The car hasn't crashed yet. We're still sliding.

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST

youve got that back to front. whatever the result, even if remain loses, remainers will win. neither lexit nor lemain exists.

Seen from one of those Labour types earlier earlier “Lexit not a possiblity but lemain just might be”

In this fantasy world the untakeonable Tories who decide all policy ( the EU is a distant finger wagging wizard that simultaneously saves us but has no effect on govt policy whatsoever) are magically bypassed-or are these guys still thinking a second ref will eliminate the Tories or what? - and this time, THIS time social democrats will rise up and change the EU from within.


Alternatively , the Tories must also be a force we can also challenge, in order for “lemain” to be a real possibility in which case how the fuck isn’t “Lexit” possible?!
Also something along the lines of :
“It’s time to make the case for changing the EU from within, I bet there’s a real appetite for this amongst the left in France, Italy and beyond.” Hmm yum yum.
It’s all about the left of course, and if they have to deny working class people basic rights like being able to vote and seeing their vote being honoured, it’s all good.

I'm not a fan of class based politics but generally agree with you on this.

A big problem with politics at the moment is parties don't try to influence peoples ideas on subjects. They just go with opinion polls and try to pander to those people they think can potentially vote for them.

Huh wow. Well, honest at least. But yeah, it’s a big problem that the likes of May and they red Tories and fucking Farage haven’t managed to leave a footprint on my thoughts the pandering cunts.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Seen from one of those Labour types earlier earlier “Lexit not a possiblity but lemain just might be”

Well you know what they say don't you, some people are more intelligent in primary school than when they've gained a doctorate.

 

[The Fornicator]

By the way, the most Labour have ever got in an election is 47% of the vote, with the next biggest 43%. The polls have them around 40% at present.

The polls reflect the Tories being seen as a credible option, and that's only because Corbyn is seen as not.