Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[andysays]

They don't even have to be a leader of any party. They just need to command a majority in the HOC. #ThoughtYouGNU

This is true, but not immediately relevant.

If the Tories kick out May and choose a new leader, that new leader will get first go at forming a government, though them being able to command a majority isn't a certainty...

 

[cupid_stunt]

BREAKING NEWS - Dominic Raab has cancelled his planned trip to Brussels tonight.

 

[eatmorecheese]

Or has had it cancelled

 

[SpackleFrog]

This is true, but not immediately relevant.

If the Tories kick out May and choose a new leader, that new leader will get first go at forming a government, though them being able to command a majority isn't a certainty...

We're probably in very uncertain territory here but couldn't anyone who can form a majority come forward and have a go? It's all just convention anyway.

 

[bemused]

Anyone know what the technicalities of that would be?

I mean, theoretically could they just put a new leader in?

1. The MPs put names in the hat
2. MPs vote in a series of rounds until two are left
3. The membership vote on the two

If only one candidate is put forward, skip step three.

 

[andysays]

18:45
Is 'a leadership contest by accident' on the cards?
The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says she understands there has not yet been an official decision by the ERG - the European Research Group of influential Brexiteers - to push the button on letters calling for a vote of no confidence to be sent.

But, she adds, levels of anger so high that some are doing it anyway - this might be the start of crashing into a leadership contest by accident. It's impossible to tell yet.

 

[Sprocket.]

The party elects a leader from its parliamentary members. If the party are already in government the winner of the leadership contest becomes Prime Minister. Until a general election.

 

[Sprocket.]

How many letters in Brady’s locked drawer?

 

[andysays]

We're probably in very uncertain territory here but couldn't anyone who can form a majority come forward and have a go? It's all just convention anyway.

I dunno. The only way in a really close and complex situation to actually discover who can form a majority is to put it to the test.

There are, as I understand it, conventions about who gets to have first go, but none of that is immediately relevant so I'm more interested in the current drama...

 

[Santino]

How many Tory 'moderates' and Lib Dems would Corbyn need to form an emergency minority government, in the national interest?

 

[redsquirrel]

The party elects a leader from its parliamentary members. If the party are already in government the winner of the leadership contest becomes Prime Minister. Until a general election.

In practice that's how it works these days.

But technically SpackleFrog is right, the PM can be anyone who commands the confidence of the HoC.

 

[paolo]

If the ERG managed a power grab, I’d guess all manner of shit would kick off.

I have, of course, now entered the full extrapolated black hole of no news.

Speculating about speculation.

 

[paolo]

How many Tory 'moderates' and Lib Dems would Corbyn need to form an emergency minority government, in the national interest?

The Lib Dem’s fit in a minibus.

SNP would be the way to turn.

 

[Sprocket.]

In practice that's how it works these days.

But technically SpackleFrog is right, the PM can be anyone who commands the confidence of the HoC.

I suppose for instance in war time or national emergency, some form of coalition?

 

[bemused]

See Guardian live feed.

bemused is rather overstating it. There are some rumours that the ERG is making a move to try and force a VoNC. Even if the requisite number of letters are sent in that doesn't mean May would lose any vote.

I'm just repeating Laura K

 

[cupid_stunt]

BBC saying May is going to make a statement very soon.

 

[Santino]

I suppose for instance in war time or national emergency, some form of coalition?

Some kind of ''national" government.

 

[cupid_stunt]

C-4 News - Will it be May's finest hour or final hour?

 

[Yossarian]

Has anyone actually seen the Cabinet members since the meeting began? I'm starting to suspect May has killed them all and will address the press wearing a necklace of ears.

 

[paolo]

The Lib Dem’s fit in a minibus.

SNP would be the way to turn.

Doh. Scrub that. They’re wholly remain.

 

[redsquirrel]

If the ERG managed a power grab, I’d guess all manner of shit would kick off.

I have, of course, now entered the full extrapolated black hole of no news.

Speculating about speculation.

Do you know what % of Tory MPs are members of the ERG? Less than 20%.

They can make things very uncomfortable for May, they can probably mean that May will require Labour support to get this deal through parliament but they don't have the numbers to make a power grab, if the rest of the party oppose it.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Has anyone actually seen the Cabinet members since the meeting began? I'm starting to suspect May has killed them all and will address the press wearing a necklace of ears.

Nice idea but I just can't see May ever doing something that made me respect her.

 

[bemused]

Has anyone actually seen the Cabinet members since the meeting began? I'm starting to suspect May has killed them all and will address the press wearing a necklace of ears.

They went to the Saudi Embassy by 'mistake'

 

[andysays]

19:05

Five-hour cabinet meeting ends
After five hours, the cabinet meeting has concluded, says Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC's political editor.

Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to make a statement shortly. The microphone outside Number 10 awaits.

 

[paolo]

BREAKING NEWS - Dominic Raab has cancelled his planned trip to Brussels tonight.

I’m assuming that the *intended* schedule then, was that Raab would go to Brussels to say, yep, we’ve got cabinet backing, let’s now timetable U.K/EU announcements for tomorrow.

With nothing yet coming out, this is sounding like there’s a fight back in London. If so I’d guess that’ll go the distance. Both (UK) sides will be wanting to say *something* tomorrow, so they’ll go on all night if need be, even if it ends up with contradictory claims of victory.

(E2a: Oh hold on!)

 

[mauvais]

BREAKING NEWS - Dominic Raab has cancelled his planned trip to Brussels tonight.

After learning that it's in Belgium, presumably.

 

[Pickman's model]

After learning that it's in Belgium, presumably.

He's terrified of sprouts

 

[MickiQ]

Has anyone actually seen the Cabinet members since the meeting began? I'm starting to suspect May has killed them all and will address the press wearing a necklace of ears.

That would be totally awesome, it would certainly make the swivellers think twice about backstabbing her.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

I'm watching footage of her front door, and the Beeb are airing the director's audio feed bizarrely

 

[paolo]

My guess is that this statement is going to waffly and lacking any significant detail.

The next real churn will come when the MPs have at it.