Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

as for people being none too bright, your wattage is below even treelover's

That's harsh

 

[Pickman's model]

That's harsh

but true

 

[not-bono-ever]

The whole brexit story could be summed up by referencing one single page episode of Drunken Bakers from Viz

 

[not-bono-ever]

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 152490

 

[Winot]

Stockholm syndrome Danny!

Slough Syndrome after Brexit.

 

[mojo pixy]

all I've got is tassel and wassail.
vessel is close but no

Hassle / Vassal.
That's all.

I love how we're about to become a ''vassal state'' implying we aren't currently.

 

[kebabking]

Noises from France, not much appetite elsewhere.

The biggest opposers historically has been the UK. That particular impediment has effectively ended, but I doubt it will happen.

Dunno, while it's normally given short shrift it's also never been mooted while US and Europe have been so divergent on foreign and defence policy (and relations so toxic on a personal level between the various governments).

The French are looking for a mechanism to get everyone else to pay for and contribute to their assorted wars in Saharan Africa, the Germans are looking for a way to get out of defence spending altogether, and the EU structures are looking for a way to centralise political power - the other side of this however is that the eastern states have absolutely no faith in German promises of military support, the northern EU states have no interest in the Brussels power grab, and the Irish are petrified that they'll be asked to actually have a defence budget.

My own view is that - assuming the € zone doesn't collapse - that this is very much the direction of travel for the EU: the EU is already attempting to set immigration policy, it already has a foreign policy structure, economic policy is being set by the ECB, and there's a nacent defence structure around the EDA.

European military in 5 years? No chance. European military in 30 years? Not an even chance, but heading that way....

 

[danny la rouge]

In all probability for 32 years. Though for how many of those he’ll remember anything is open to debate. And maybe bets. I’ll check.

not-bono-ever So my local bookie is not accepting bets on whether Prince Charles has Alzheimer's.

Which I’m assuming means he does.

 

[Pickman's model]

Hassle / Vassal.
That's all.

I love how we're about to become a ''vassal state'' implying we aren't currently.

even vassals
can wassail

 

[Pickman's model]

not-bono-ever So my local bookie is not accepting bets on whether Prince Charles has Alzheimer's.

Which I’m assuming means he does.

yeh, what do you give the prince who has everything? alzheimers

 

[paolo]

Dunno, while it's normally given short shrift it's also never been mooted while US and Europe have been so divergent on foreign and defence policy (and relations so toxic on a personal level between the various governments).

The French are looking for a mechanism to get everyone else to pay for and contribute to their assorted wars in Saharan Africa, the Germans are looking for a way to get out of defence spending altogether, and the EU structures are looking for a way to centralise political power - the other side of this however is that the eastern states have absolutely no faith in German promises of military support, the northern EU states have no interest in the Brussels power grab, and the Irish are petrified that they'll be asked to actually have a defence budget.

My own view is that - assuming the € zone doesn't collapse - that this is very much the direction of travel for the EU: the EU is already attempting to set immigration policy, it already has a foreign policy structure, economic policy is being set by the ECB, and there's a nacent defence structure around the EDA.

European military in 5 years? No chance. European military in 30 years? Not an even chance, but heading that way....

“EU AND WHOSE ARMY?” - sometimes Brexit headlines write themselves.

Seriously though, I largely agree with your analysis.

One idea is that by having a consolidated European force, the member states will be less on the hook to America, expecting quid pro quo for interventions.

That idea is, for now, running in glue. 27 member states with a range of views, makes things like this incredibly difficult to pass.

So yeah, I think your timeframe verdict and likelihood sound about right.

 

[not-bono-ever]

“unleash the dancing tramp of brexit”

ordered prime minister Cameron

A weak metaphor too far and too obscure for most

 

[DotCommunist]

I love how we're about to become a ''vassal state'' implying we aren't currently.

aye and the *we* here is problematic isn't it? I know what it means for jonson et al, but the we I know never owned one lousy handful of earth (as the song has it)

 

[mojo pixy]

Since this began each time I see ''sovereignty'' it's never made clear for whom exactly.

 

[Pickman's model]

aye and the *we* here is problematic isn't it? I know what it means for jonson et al, but the we I know never owned one lousy handful of earth (as the song has it)

never did have land reform in this country...

 

[Pickman's model]

Since this began each time I see ''sovereignty'' it's never made clear for whom exactly.

sovereign t

 

[Winot]

Since this began each time I see ''sovereignty'' it's never made clear for whom exactly.

The Queen.

 

[DotCommunist]

never did have land reform in this country...

I blame the 'Lord Protector'

 

[Pickman's model]

I blame the 'Lord Protector'

no time like the present, dc, no time like the present

 

[friedaweed]

 

[Pickman's model]

 

[friedaweed]

View attachment 152496

"Nasty Brexitses stole my precious"

 

[mojo pixy]

The Queen.

Exactly. Not for me, not for you. Not for anyone I know. Literally fuck all is going to change, but for the worse. ''Sovereignty'' ffs. ''Take back control'', well I'd sure like some control over my life.

 

[paolo]

"Nasty Brexitses stole my precious"

Man with zero credibility, and as such adds nothing to the debate. I’d be quite happy if he completely shut up about this. And most everything.

 

[SpackleFrog]

One idea is that by having a consolidated European force, the member states will be less on the hook to America, expecting quid pro quo for interventions.

Yeah! We can be way less reliant on US imperialism if we go back to good old fashioned European imperialism and THIS TIME we can all work together!

“EU AND WHOSE ARMY?” - sometimes Brexit headlines write themselves.

Srsly tho great headline

 

[Wilf]

Just read that may will be making a statement at 5.00 (sky feed I think). Not, I imagine that agreement has been reached, more about getting her version in first. Time for a Bingo Card:

• In the weeks and months ahead
• Working hard
• Seeking solutions
• Difficult issues remain
• National interest
• Junker is a pisshead

 

[paolo]

Yeah! We can be way less reliant on US imperialism if we go back to good old fashioned European imperialism and THIS TIME we can all work together!

The idea doesn’t have much traction.

Germany isn’t too keen on wars

Srsly tho great headline

First day at the Express tomorrow!

 

[brogdale]

Since this began each time I see ''sovereignty'' it's never made clear for whom exactly.

Prob best to assume that the person using the word is referring to that of finance capital, whether they did so intentionally or not.

 

[Wilf]

Just read that may will be making a statement at 5.00 (sky feed I think). Not, I imagine that agreement has been reached, more about getting her version in first. Time for a Bingo Card:

• In the weeks and months ahead
• Working hard
• Seeking solutions
• Difficult issues remain
• National interest
• Junker is a pisshead

Acshually, 6.00 or even 7 (grauniad):

May's Brexit cabinet meeting now expected to run at least until 6pm
The cabinet meeting is overrunning, we’ve been told. Theresa May had been expected to make a statement when it finished at around 5pm, but apparently it is now due to run at least until 6pm (ie, for four hours) and perhaps until 7pm (ie, for five hours).