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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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    362
There is a New Zealand guy, Crawford Falconer, involved. He made some stupid gaffe about the EU or WTO or something, and has been meeting with the shadowy Legatum people.
 
Shit question:
1. Age old sales trick to start sentence with the word 'image'
2. Trying to imply that peace in NI can only be possible if UK remains in EU

Project Fear, full steam ahead!
They also said they'd rather leave the EU than keep Scotland in the UK.
 
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Shit question:
1. Age old sales trick to start sentence with the word 'image'
2. Trying to imply that peace in NI can only be possible if UK remains in EU

Project Fear, full steam ahead!
While I agree about the methods here, is it Project Fear to be concerned for the GFA? Was Martin McGuinness part of this Project Fear in the run-up to the referendum when he voiced his concerns over this issue?
 
I can't find that actual poll anywhere other than on that Tweet, though the company - for which Simon Kellner works - has recently done stuff for the Sun on Sunday.

You'll find similar results - thought not that question - on the union in a Lord Ashcroft poll: Brexit, the Border and the Union - Lord Ashcroft Polls

I think this sort of polling is becoming more popular because it's said to be more realistic: ie, you don't give people a menu of choices, but you make them choose between two things, both of which they might think are shit, because that's the reality of political choice.
 
Better a sack full of monkeys than this current lot. They made Boris Johnson the foreign secretary for fuck's sake.
No. I meant the tories won't want to leave (trade negotiations) to labour so there's little chance of a snap election and less chance of labour winning it.
 
They'll be calling an election on the basis that they can win it.

You can expect a full-on assault on "communist spy" Corbyn and loads of flag waving. It also looks like - from the behaviour of some top Tories - that the Conservative Party is preparing to go fully down the truth-free smear line of the GOP, with whom they have plenty of links. Gove, Rees Mogg and Johnson have all spoken with Bannon now, who ran Cambridge Analytica among his many other talents. . .

All very speculative I know. . .
 
I can't find that actual poll anywhere other than on that Tweet, though the company - for which Simon Kellner works - has recently done stuff for the Sun on Sunday.

You'll find similar results - thought not that question - on the union in a Lord Ashcroft poll: Brexit, the Border and the Union - Lord Ashcroft Polls

I think this sort of polling is becoming more popular because it's said to be more realistic: ie, you don't give people a menu of choices, but you make them choose between two things, both of which they might think are shit, because that's the reality of political choice.
Would you rather have a socialist government or secure peace in Northern Ireland?

Would you rather the NHS be dismantled or terrorist attacks in the UK?

Would you rather 100 years of Tory rule or have to strangle a baby to death?
 
Would you rather have a socialist government or secure peace in Northern Ireland?

Would you rather the NHS be dismantled or terrorist attacks in the UK?

Would you rather 100 years of Tory rule or have to strangle a baby to death?
That particular question was a silly one. A better one might have been something along the lines of 'would you like to keep the common travel area with the Republic of Ireland or leave the EU customs union'. I still haven't seen anyone propose a system by which the UK leaves the customs union without imposing some kind of hard border in Ireland. In the absence of a working proposition to have both, it would seem reasonable to ask which of the two is more important to someone who voted 'leave', given that they probably weren't aware of the problem at the time they cast their vote. Also, of course, necessary to remember that this is only a poll of 52 per cent of the people who voted in that referendum (and so slightly fewer than 52 per cent of who would vote today due to natural wastage). Even if 90 per cent of them think something, that still doesn't make a majority in the country.
 
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Because during indyref1 they said if we voted to remain in the UK it would guarantee keeping our EU membership. In the EU ref both NI and Scotland voted to remain.
I would lay good money that in the event of a No Deal Brexit and subsequent Scottish independence that EU membership for Scotland would be fast tracked and the objections of countries like Spain will just get bought off.
Irish re-unification, I'm less sure of, All the Irish that I know seem to view the Northern Irish as backward rubes that could be more trouble than they're worth.
I don't know how prevalent that opinion is in Eire itself but the UK can't force the ROI to take NI any more than it can force it to leave the EU as well.
 
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Because during indyref1 they said if we voted to remain in the UK it would guarantee keeping our EU membership. In the EU ref both NI and Scotland voted to remain.

Who is "they" in this case? How do you know what those leave voters who were polled were saying during the indyref?
 
Santino you asked what Scotland had to trade, not the UK.

Combustible...tories, labour and libdems...the yoon parties.
 
or 'would you prefer 1. to stay in the EU or 2. give the 6 counties to the RoI and leave the EU'. I'm guessing high 80's to mid 90's % for option 2.
And how is that done? The UK has committed to keeping NI in the UK for as long as a majority of people in NI wish this to be the case. Whatever you think about that, and I could say a lot about it, practically and politically, how do they change that stance? Specifically, how does the Conservative and Unionist Party change that stance?
 
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