Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Chz]

It was a Eurosceptic argument for years that the UK was the only country that actually followed EU regulations while the French were drinking leaded petrol and unpasteurising their coffee before breakfast.

I'm a europhile and I say that all the time. There's more than a nugget of truth to it.

 

[hot air baboon]

I just think its magical thinking that brexit will open up opportunities for a more leftist economy - it will lead to an increasingly isolated UK, with a weaker economy, with a resurgent far right and far less able to resist the raptors of capital especially if there further economic shocks And even if labour take control, they could very easily be turfed out by the tories within a few years.

I really can't see anything in the experience of austerity, the rise of the far right & the replacement of popularly mandated government with centrally appointed technocrats - as experienced by the EU member states - still more those enjoying the "even more Europe" version obtaining in the eurozone to see exactly what upside we are going to be missing out on post-Brexit in those particular areas

There's no angle...the French will not continue to keep them there after brexit, why should they?

the Le Touquet agreement on the Calais border is now governed by a bi-lateral treaty signed by May & Macron in January - & doesn't seem to have any particular tie-up or conditionality with the Brexit process

May and Macron to sign new Calais border treaty

 

[SpookyFrank]

There's no angle...the French will not continue to keep them there after brexit, why should they?

Most likely there will be some bilateral deal with France which looks a lot like the current shit state of affairs. What I meant by angle though, is whether you think France no longer policing our border would be a good thing or a bad thing. Because you seemed to be using the prospect of people being able to escape the hellish conditions inflicted on them by the French authorities and come to the UK instead as some kind of threat, or an example of how bad it's all going to get.

 

[DexterTCN]

[QUOTE="hot air baboon, post: 15671762, member: 64025"...the Le Touquet agreement on the Calais border is now governed by a bi-lateral treaty signed by May & Macron in January - & doesn't seem to have any particular tie-up or conditionality with the Brexit process

May and Macron to sign new Calais border treaty[/QUOTE]
Yes but the UK border was being defined as in France for this. That will change with brexit as the UK border will be in the UK...there will be huge pressure on (any) French leader on this after brexit.

 

[MightyTibberton]

Are we finally getting Calais back then?

 

[killer b]

In this video: Grace Blakeley, who is a pro-Brexit economist from the IPPR, says sort of the same thing: ie, that "it's not massively the state aid rules" because there's a debate about the extent to which EU "law" is actually law.

Her argument is that the most important positive (and potentially left-wing) effect of Brexit (she wants a "hard but managed Brexit") is that in leaving the single market we would be able to control the movement of capital within the UK economy and in and out of the UK economy.



If sharing Novara Media stuff makes me non-grata in some way, well, there you go. . . I had this on this morning and that question turned up fairly concurrently with its discussion here.

I didn't notice Grace Blakely was on this, and was avoiding because a) it's novara, and b) george eaton. I'll give it a listen later though, she was on the politics/theory/other podcast the other day and is very good.

 

[SpookyFrank]

The UK border in France thing is a convenient legal fudge, not a meaningfully real state of affairs. It allows our border control people to operate at their port, and vice versa. That suits both parties and will most likely continue to be the case after Brexit.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Are we finally getting Calais back then?

Have you been there? Trust me, we don't want it.

 

[MightyTibberton]

She's always on Novara...

 

[MightyTibberton]

EU negotiators arrive to pay their first tributes to Jeremy Hunt and begin discussions for the relocation of Paris to Kent.

 

[DexterTCN]

The UK border in France thing is a convenient legal fudge, not a meaningfully real state of affairs. It allows our border control people to operate at their port, and vice versa. That suits both parties and will most likely continue to be the case after Brexit.

I don't think that's realistic.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I don't think that's realistic.

But do you think it's desirable?

 

[DexterTCN]

But do you think it's desirable?

The UK would desire it, the UK will not get it. If it gets any deal the price will be exorbitant and won't last because of French politics.

 

[pocketscience]

I'm I right in thinking that Dexter is predicting millions of Asylum seekers camping out in a Dover jungle camp trying to get to the EU promised land once all our food and medicine stockpiles are depleted?

 

[DexterTCN]

As right as you are about anything on this thread.

 

[not-bono-ever]

The UK border in France thing is a convenient legal fudge, not a meaningfully real state of affairs. It allows our border control people to operate at their port, and vice versa. That suits both parties and will most likely continue to be the case after Brexit.

It will for France as their booths seem unoccupied or have only one uninterested uniform on show whenever I get the tunnel at Folkestone - they dont seem to give a shit

 

[MightyTibberton]

It'll be interesting as more of this reality of Brexit - however exactly it turns out - bumps up against the promises of the Leave campaign.

Happy days. . .

 

[DexterTCN]

Government's 'no deal' Brexit plans lost on M20 motorway

This is more to do with conditions at the upcoming border than the headline.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Do you want to Be hit over the head with a bat or stabbed in the arse with a kitchen devil is the L vs R take for me now. When I take my pragmatic work hat off , I can only see disruption being a good thing for the longer term as long as we don’t fall back into letting the usual suspects retake the wheel of SS United Kingdom afterwards. That is more of a fear than the departure itself

 

[MightyTibberton]

What is this "long term" of which you speak?

 

[SpackleFrog]

"a few points off GDP" would mean even greater poverty and a existential crises for the NHS. To salvage some sort of socialist policies out of that you would have to have an old school, centrist, authoritarian regime - imposition of capital controls, seizing assess - basically an isolationist model that nobody is going to vote for. More likely its crises management and then a real danger of the tories getting back in with their eager axe. And a more isolationist UK will also be a further boon for the ugly naitonalism that brexit has released.
The here and now is not about building socialism through some convoluted set of circumstance post brexit (seriously - what are the chance of that? its fucking delusional) - its about keeping the NHS, reducing poverty and giving people decent homes and jobs - brexit will fuck the chances of that big time. precisely because of " a few points of GDP" (i.e. a major recession) followed by reduced economic growth and higher prices.
Yes - the EU as it is currently set up is still pushing for greater neo-liberalsim, but their is also greater resistance to that across the member states - especially post 2008. And those neo-liberal forces will be even harder to resist outside the EU - because the UK will be in a much weaker position and coronations and major economic powers like the USA and china will be pushing for much greater "liberalisation" in return for market access.

Scrap brexit. Stay in for now, do whats possible, see what happens.

Hopelessly illiterate

 

[agricola]

Do you want to Be hit over the head with a bat or stabbed in the arse with a kitchen devil is the L vs R take for me now. When I take my pragmatic work hat off , I can only see disruption being a good thing for the longer term as long as we don’t fall back into letting the usual suspects retake the wheel of SS United Kingdom afterwards. That is more of a fear than the departure itself

SS United Kingdom? Bannon's influence must run deeper than anyone has realised.

 

[bemused]

Government's 'no deal' Brexit plans lost on M20 motorway

This is more to do with conditions at the upcoming border than the headline.

I still don't think we'll have a no deal. Economics will win out, the EU and UK will come up with some fudge that annoys everyone but keeps most of the cash flowing.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Because no-one will buy or sell with us. They have a thing called solidarity.

Best post in the whole thread.

"We can't take on the bourgeois lads, they have a weapon called solidarity!"

Say what you like about Dexter he's great value.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Hopelessly illiterate

how so?

 

[not-bono-ever]

SS United Kingdom? Bannon's influence must run deeper than anyone has realised.

MV sceptered isles?

 

[MightyTibberton]

By Theresa May showing Tory MPs in marginal seats videos of a Corbyn government taking their houses off them after Stalinist show trials after she publishes the advice on No Deal by playing the War Game on BBC1 at 9pm with "IN THE EVENT OF BREXIT" subtitles.

That's it, isn't it? That's the plan. She's going to scare as much of the Tory party and DUP as she can into voting for what she can get out of the EU - Chequers Minus Minus - and hope that Labour will abstain or back it on the basis that it's better than No Deal. There's no obligation for them to call an election if they go out with No Deal. It might be what the public call for - and I think it would probably happen - but they don't have to call an election until 2022 and Corbyn terrifies them.

 

[SpackleFrog]

how so?

Your entire post - from your belief that the level of GDP is the primary reason for NHS cuts to your idea that stopping Brexit and seeing what happens will resolve the contradictions highlighted by the referendum - rests on a perspective based on delusion.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Your entire post - from your belief that the level of GDP is the primary reason for NHS cuts to your idea that stopping Brexit and seeing what happens will resolve the contradictions highlighted by the referendum - rests on a perspective based on delusion.

i didn't say either of those things. i pointed out that economic shocks - the sort that takes of chunk out of GDP - always result in slashing of public services and the NHS is dependant on a certain level of economic growth. economic growth = greater government income and vise versa.
And no "staying on and seeing what happens" is not going to solve problems or contradictions - its just somewhat less shit than the alternative - an outcome where a neo-liberal shit hole under the likes of rees mogg is a far more likely than a move towards greater equality and less poverty.
Brexit fucks the economy - the only debate is by how much. How that leads to better pay, less poverty or a well funded NHS is a total fucking mystery to me. please enlighten.

 

[mauvais]

economic growth = greater government income and vise versa.

This isn't true, for a start. Correlation at best. What if growth is stimulated by tax cuts?

For clarity, I don't disagree with the thrust of your argument, but direct ties to GDP don't do you any favours.