Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Kaka Tim]

Fire brigade 'on standby' in event of fires.

Local authority 'has plan' in event of flood.

Hospital 'has practised' major disaster response.

its a uniquely awkward poistion the uk gov is in - they have to make out they are serious about "no deal" by preparing for it (although not very seriously) - in order have some sort of card to play with Brussels. but this has the effect of creating growing panic about what no deal might entail (stockpiling food ffs!) - and creates ever greater pressure for them to abandon it. But the only deal the EU would accept will be rejected by parliament.
Fucked at every turn they are.

I dont think its pure "project fear" - crashing out would be hugely disruptive. Sure the dangers may well be exaggerated - but equally nobody knows exactly how things will pan out - there so many interrelated, complex factors that a wide range unexpected consequences are pretty much nailed on. As is the element of Self fulfilling prophecy. As a potential crash out approaches, you will likely see a run on the pound and shortages in the shops due to panic buying.

 

[agricola]

its a uniquely awkward poistion the uk gov is in - they have to make out they are serious about "no deal" by preparing for it (although not very seriously) - in order have some sort of card to play with Brussels. but this has the effect of creating growing panic about what no deal might entail (stockpiling food ffs!) - and creates ever greater pressure for them to abandon it. But the only deal the EU would accept will be rejected by parliament.
Fucked at every turn they are.

I dont think its pure "project fear" - crashing out would be hugely disruptive. Sure the dangers may well be exaggerated - but equally nobody knows exactly how things will pan out - there so many interrelated, complex factors that a wide range unexpected consequences are pretty much nailed on. As is the element of Self fulfilling prophecy. As a potential crash out approaches, you will likely see a run on the pound and shortages in the shops due to panic buying.

The seriousness by which they are preparing for no deal can be seen by how many extra customs officers they've recruited.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The seriousness by which they are preparing for no deal can be seen by how many extra customs officers they've recruited.

?

 

[DotCommunist]

I'm sure G4s will cover it

 

[pesh]

thats why the army are on standby

 

[agricola]

View attachment 142628 ?

Well in 2017 they said they wanted 5000 more, Rudd said earlier this year that they were planning for 1000 more, and as of earlier this month they'd hired an extra* 300 who were still being trained.

* extra in the usual Government sense of the word, in that they represent 300 more officers than the 7670 Border Force staff they had in 2016-17, but not extra to the 8332 staff they had in 2014-15.

 

[danny la rouge]

The Government doesn't generally negotiate and organize fires, floods or major disasters - though admittedly this one does come very close to that.

Sky news "puts sensational spin" on mundane fact.

Says arboreal pooper, Mr Ursine.

 

[gentlegreen]

Project Fear seems to be working better in its current incarnation, but I'm sure that remain would manage to lose a second referendum as well.

Having 3 options might skew things :-

1. Do a runner / trade war

2. May-style fudge with civil war in NI

3. Stick with what worked before.

Or they set a threshold of 70 percent ....

 

[Winot]

Well in 2017 they said they wanted 5000 more, Rudd said earlier this year that they were planning for 1000 more, and as of earlier this month they'd hired an extra* 300 who were still being trained.

* extra in the usual Government sense of the word, in that they represent 300 more officers than the 7670 Border Force staff they had in 2016-17, but not extra to the 8332 staff they had in 2014-15.

So less than the Dutch then.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-netherlands-to-hire-750-extra-customs-officials-to-tackle/

 

[Crispy]

17m Dutch : 750 Extra Dutch Customs Officials
That's 22,666 Dutch people per CO
For 65m Britons, the same ratio gives 2,867 Extra British Customs Officers

 

[agricola]

17m Dutch : 750 Extra Dutch Customs Officials
That's 22,666 Dutch people per CO
For 65m Britons, the same ratio gives 2,867 Extra British Customs Officers

Even that is a bit misleading - the biggest criteria affecting how many customs officers are needed will be how many ports of entry there are, and we have many more of those than the Dutch do.

 

[Crispy]

Even that is a bit misleading - the biggest criteria affecting how many customs officers are needed will be how many ports of entry there are, and we have many more of those than the Dutch do.

I believe I've already done more homework on the topic than the government has.

 

[Fez909]

I wouldn't panic about the food shortages guff - that only happens in socialist countries

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I get it that it's possible for the EU to act in its interests as an institution rather than the interests of its members. If that's what's happening as far as its Brexit dealings are concerned, though, why aren't we seeing any objections from other member states? Or are we?

Far right Italian leader Salvini warns EU could 'swindle' UK on Brexit

Italy's Deputy Prime Minister and leader of far right party The League has warned the EU may try to “swindle” the UK out of Brexit.

Former Member of the European Parliament Matteo Salvini said Theresa May should take a hardline stance in her Brexit negotiations, saying: “My experience in the European parliament tells me you either impose yourself or they swindle you.”

Salvini said the UK should be prepared to walk away from talks.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Mussolini-quoting, racist, rabid anti-immigrant Matteo Salvini. There's lovely.

 

[sealion]

Far right Italian leader Salvini warns EU could 'swindle' UK on Brexit

It's pretty much what's already been said by a range of people in politics. A weak leader and remainer was never going to get any joy from the cabal.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Cabal?

 

[skyscraper101]

Nothing really to add, I just wanted to share this graphic from yesterday on the Daily Star website.

 

[sealion]

Cabal?

What is it then?

 

[sealion]

Nothing really to add, I just wanted to share this graphic from yesterday on the Daily Star website.

You missed this cracker,Brexit STD WARNING: Super-gonorrhoea to spread more easily when UK leaves EU. Good to see such a serious newspaper not going down the clickbait root

 

[Raheem]

Bring back Dacre now!!!

 

[mojo pixy]

You make it sound easy. The eu have stated- no cherry picking- must abide by the rules, yet they do the opposite with Japan and America. Wheres the consistency there? Or are they making it up as they go along?

I think (someone will sure point out if this is wrong) that what the EU is doing is legal somersaults so that...
a) If you are a member who wants to leave you must negotiate around every item from which your membership is made (including eg FoM)
b) If you are not a member you negotiate from the proverbial Blank Slate.

I may even have heard this said out loud by an EU rep but basically, if we want a Blank Slate deal we need to crash out with no deal, then negotiate a deal from a non-member's position.

Something like that. It's all about the wriggling but then legal somersaults are wriggling - backed up by force of law.

 

[redsquirrel]

3. Stick with what worked before.

What like this? 1, 2, 3, 4

EDIT: Better figure for level of poverty here.

 

[sealion]

yeah but,,

 

[gentlegreen]

That'd all be UK poverty and not EU-wide ?

 

[redsquirrel]

Yes. Does that make a difference?

 

[gentlegreen]

Yes. Does that make a difference?

How does the UK compare to the other EU members over the same period ?

 

[redsquirrel]

How does the UK compare to the other EU members over the same period ?

How about you answer my questions first. Do you stand by your claim that the system was working for most people? You want a continuation of the above?

 

[gentlegreen]

How about you answer my questions first. Do you stand by your claim that the system was working for most people? You want a continuation of the above?

I think we need to adjust for individual countries and their particular local political effects.

 

[Supine]

What have those graphs for to do with brexit?

Nothing - apart from they'll look worse afterwards.