Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Gerry1time]

Not a single MP left over their parties formation of a coalition with the Tories. In fact they were ready and willing to go into coalition again. The orange bookers won

Not a single MP no, but a shed load of activitists and leaflet deliverers did. It's the less mentioned part of what fucked them over in the 2015 election. I suspect MPs didn't leave as they generally weren't the sharpest tools in the box. It was a parliamentary party not formed from those successful in the world of business or the world of trade unionism (or Oxbridge PPE for New Labour), but people who had a career path of neighbourhood watch - local council - leader of local council - accidental MP. It's part of why some of the Orange Bookers found it so easy to get to senior positions, many of the MPs were only really interested in local issues in their constituencies.

 

[Poi E]

It’s like the people who ran the Better Together Campaign have teamed up to give us Scottish Urbs for Remain

Interesting one for Scotland. Non deal and chaos and independence looks a reasonable option. Special deal between the EU and the UK and there's the argument that on independence there is a good chance Scotland will get a deal with the EU and with rump UK. There is simply no way that anything going forward can strengthen the Union.

 

[Kaka Tim]

the EU's aim is to ensure that Britain cannot "win" the negotiation - not to conclude a trade deal. When Donald Trump takes this position we are invited by the likes of the Guardian & the FT to boo & hiss the pantomime villain trying to undermine the global order. Its noticeable that even such grovellingly pro-EU mouthpieces such as them are starting to buckle under the strain of trying to cheerlead for their side e.g the above Garton-Ash piece or

Europe should offer Theresa May’s Brexit plan a helping hand
Subscribe to read | Financial Times

political entities look to secure their own interests shock.
Trump isn't doing that - hes feeding his own fucked up narcissism in a way that is damaging his own country. You could make the same argument about brexit - its indulging in a post imperial delusion about britian's place in the world - and being pursued by people whose real agenda is driven a by a self serving freidmanite dogma of deregulation.
The EUs position is entirely logical, utterly predictable and the only politically realistic option available to them - allowing the UK to have cake would be immediately rejected by the individual members of the EU27 - and their own populations.

 

[sleaterkinney]

the EU's aim is to ensure that Britain cannot "win" the negotiation - not to conclude a trade deal.

Where has this win stuff come from?. The UK has taken two years to come up with its negotiating position, which is just a fudge, and the reason it's a fudge is because it's trying to limit the damage of brexit. There is no winning they can do.

 

[teqniq]

Sky Data poll: 78% think the government is doing a bad job on Brexit

 

[gentlegreen]

Army 'on standby' to handle food and medicines shortages in event of 'no deal' Brexit

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Where has this win stuff come from?. The UK has taken two years to come up with its negotiating position, which is just a fudge, and the reason it's a fudge is because it's trying to limit the damage of brexit. There is no winning they can do.

Exactly. What has the EU been asked to negotiate? What has the UK offered up as a plan? When the UK goes into negotiations demonstrating clearly, as Davis did for instance, that they haven't even thought of problems such as the NI border, what would you expect from the EU negotiators, to go away and come up with a plan for them?

 

[teuchter]

Exactly. What has the EU been asked to negotiate? What has the UK offered up as a plan? When the UK goes into negotiations demonstrating clearly, as Davis did for instance, that they haven't even thought of problems such as the NI border, what would you expect from the EU negotiators, to go away and come up with a plan for them?

As the Lexiteers of this thread have explained - it's not Britain's problem what happens at the border, because it's the EU that wants to enforce controls. So the EU has to think up a solution, and it shouldn't be one that prioritises the interests of its members because that just wouldn't be a nice thing to do.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As the Lexiteers of this thread have explained - it's not Britain's problem what happens at the border, because it's the EU that wants to enforce controls. So the EU has to think up a solution, and it shouldn't be one that prioritises the interests of its members because that just wouldn't be a nice thing to do.

Has the UK's position on NI changed at all? Last I heard, they planned both to maintain the common travel area with Ireland that existed long before EU membership and to enforce immigration controls from the EU. Riiiight.

 

[sealion]

the UK's aim is to screw over the EU,

In what way?

 

[MickiQ]

In what way?

Wishy washy shit that it may actually be, the Chequers agreement is still underpinned by the belief that the UK government can get to pick and choose what bits of EU membership it wants, being able to have free trade without free movement, being able to ignore the ECJ and so forth, having free movement across the UK/ROI border without accepting the associated conditions.
The EU on the other hand isn't willing to do or accept anything that it sees as undermining its basic principles.
There's a bit of a game of chicken going on at the moment with both sides expecting the other to blink first and neither doing it.

 

[sealion]

being able to have free trade without free movement,

The usa and Japan have done deals with the eu, freedom of movement didn't apply to these.

 

[DotCommunist]

interesting overlap between those who thought it was ok for the EU to fuck greece and the people who now claim that the EU now acts soley with members interests at heart in this case. No other considerations at all. they didn't pay their taxes/you voted out. Lol.
Interesting also to note the same sudden concerns for the poorest (thats me btw) being most likely to bear the brunt of a crash out. Yet nary a word to be said about the greek working classes being on the end of a waterboarding. Did you not see the writing on the wall then? Kaka tim did

My point was that greece rejected the EUs austerity with a threat to leave the union. The EU called their bluff and they had to crawl back and eat up their gruel.
The UK is not in the same state as Greece economically and is not having to take ECB terms to stay solvent - but on the issue of trying to gain concessions in the event of leaving the union, the position is the same -as is the EUs response.
Its Hotel California - Brussels style.

Crocodile tears. Still I suppose we are to have this from now until at least conference season...

 

[MickiQ]

The usa and Japan have done deals with the eu, freedom of movement didn't apply to these.

Indeed they have and we will do one as well eventually but the current bunch of fuckwits in power are still clinging to their rose tinted brexit glasses.

 

[sealion]

Indeed they have and we will do one as well eventually but the current bunch of fuckwits in power are still clinging to their rose tinted brexit glasses.

You make it sound easy. The eu have stated- no cherry picking- must abide by the rules, yet they do the opposite with Japan and America. Wheres the consistency there? Or are they making it up as they go along?

 

[MickiQ]

You make it sound easy. The eu have stated- no cherry picking- must abide by the rules, yet they do the opposite with Japan and America. Wheres the consistency there? Or are they making it up as they go along?

I think it's obvious to everyone by now that it most certainly isn't easy, As for making it up as they go along, you're asking that question? of course they fucking do both the EU Commission and Mayhem and her bunch of clowns

 

[sealion]

As for making it up as they go along, you're asking that question? of course they fucking do

So impossible to deal with them., Ta.

 

[MickiQ]

So impossible to deal with them., Ta.

Of course it is possible to deal with them, they are acting in what they view as a rational manner just because it differs from your or my viewpoint doesn't mean it isn't.
This is a trade deal it has nothing to do with fair or right or just it is about what each side wants and finding something that gives both as much as possible whilst making them give up as little as possible.
Currently it seems to me that the EU has it act together a lot more than the UK does in this regard.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Sunday times fact free filler - it’s a jolly doom laden read and shit but there’s nothing to it really.

Do we actually have any enough army left to achieve this consumables supply bridge for eg ?

I have to think about stuff like this all the time - if this level of contingency is in progress and is a real thing , then it leads me to think that either

A) we are utterly fucked beyond comprehension and have not yet realised it / and I really don’t even want to go there

Or

B) This administration is unable to think logically and professionally about outcomes and risk and prioritise accordingly


I am going for b) on this / no reason to think that there may be a nugget of logic amongst the slag heaps of incompetence on display here

/

 

[teuchter]

people who now claim that the EU now acts soley with members interests at heart in this case.

I get it that it's possible for the EU to act in its interests as an institution rather than the interests of its members. If that's what's happening as far as its Brexit dealings are concerned, though, why aren't we seeing any objections from other member states? Or are we?

 

[DotCommunist]

I get it that it's possible for the EU to act in its interests as an institution rather than the interests of its members. If that's what's happening as far as its Brexit dealings are concerned, though, why aren't we seeing any objections from other member states? Or are we?

I only remembered this lone mep . But I'm not so sure they would raise any objections, why? Its not them leaving. Did they object with any force when greece was shafted?

e2a, obviously the lions share of this non negotiations blame goes to the incompetents in charge, who've had 2 years to do even the basics and have not but I don't see the EU as ideologically neutral in all of this as some do.

 

[sleaterkinney]

You make it sound easy. The eu have stated- no cherry picking- must abide by the rules, yet they do the opposite with Japan and America. Wheres the consistency there? Or are they making it up as they go along?

Japan and the US still have to pay tariffs.

 

[Raheem]

Army 'on standby' to handle food and medicines shortages in event of 'no deal' Brexit

Isn't the army always on standby for that sort of thing?

 

[J Ed]

The new Sky News polling being pushed by hard remainers as justification for another vote. The title of this thread is very much relevant again.

 

[sleaterkinney]

The usa and Japan have done deals with the eu, freedom of movement didn't apply to these.

Both of them still pay tariffs and have different regulatory regimes.

 

[Kaka Tim]

You make it sound easy. The eu have stated- no cherry picking- must abide by the rules, yet they do the opposite with Japan and America. Wheres the consistency there? Or are they making it up as they go along?

have they? the trade deals with Japan and the US are not universal free trade agreements - they still include tariffs and dont include all areas of trade. Some tariffs have been reduced or removed on certian products. That sort of deal is entirely feasible for the uk - but would take years to negotiate and would still be considerably worse then what its in place already - and would still necessitate a hard border in norn iron.
The deal the UK is looking is comprehensive and tariff free - whilst not being tied to the EUs rules. Its utterly delusional that the EU wont agree to it in a million years.
If the UK signs comprehensive free trade deals with the USA or China it will have to sign up to their regulations instead. If the UK signs comprehensive deals with india - they will want their citizens to be able to come and work here. The uks postion would only make sense if it had a monopoloy on large swathes of global trade backed up a massive navy - i.e the position it was in in 1890 and was completely eroded by 1950.

 

[Winot]

The new Sky News polling being pushed by hard remainers as justification for another vote. The title of this thread is very much relevant again.

We need to run the OP’s poll again with an additional option for “Barricaded in behind insulin stockpile surviving in adequate food”.

 

[J Ed]

We need to run the OP’s poll again with an additional option for “Barricaded in behind insulin stockpile surviving in adequate food”.

Project Fear seems to be working better in its current incarnation, but I'm sure that remain would manage to lose a second referendum as well.

 

[danny la rouge]

Army 'on standby' to handle food and medicines shortages in event of 'no deal' Brexit

Fire brigade 'on standby' in event of fires.

Local authority 'has plan' in event of flood.

Hospital 'has practised' major disaster response.

 

[agricola]

Fire brigade 'on standby' in event of fires.

Local authority 'has plan' in event of flood.

Hospital 'has practised' major disaster response.

The Government doesn't generally negotiate and organize fires, floods or major disasters - though admittedly this one does come very close to that.