Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[sealion]

That'd all be UK poverty and not EU-wide ?

It's the uk that voted leave, what more do you want?

 

[redsquirrel]

What have those graphs for to do with brexit?

They help explain why Leave won. Especially when you have people insisting that is "what worked before".
Even if you desperately want the UK to remain in the EU you have to be a grade A liberal cunt to want more of the last 30 years.

 

[philosophical]

 

[JimW]

What have those graphs for to do with brexit?

Nothing - apart from they'll look worse afterwards.

The possibility of changing the trajectory becomes much greater outside the EU.

 

[Kaka Tim]

What like this? 1, 2, 3, 4

EDIT: Better figure for level of poverty here.

do you have any projections for how inequality and poverty will look after brexit?

or how non-EU neo-liberal economies have fared on that front over the past 30 years?

As a non-brexiteer im certainly not arguing that the EU is some great champion of workers rights or egalitarianism - and thank fuck the uk is not bound to the euro and the ECB.
We are where we are - and choice looks very much like a deregulated bending over to the likes of china and the USA (plus probable hard border in NI and all the fun that would entail) , keeping all the EU rules and having no input or cancelling the whole thing altogether.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The possibility of changing the trajectory becomes much greater outside the EU.

does it really? how so? im all ears.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The possibility of changing the trajectory becomes much greater outside the EU.

How?

 

[JimW]

does it really? how so? im all ears.

Any reformist Labour government will have to listen more to internal pressures and worry less about breaking treaty commitments. Stay inside and anything bar out and out revolution can be batted away as we're not allowed.
A larger and more equal share of even a smaller pie means a better quality of life for more people.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Any reformist Labour government will have to listen more to internal pressures and worry less about breaking treaty commitments. Stay inside and anything bar out and out revolution can be batted away as we're not allowed.
A larger and more equal share of even a smaller pie means a better quality of life for more people.

brexit means a major economic hit - however you slice it. that will mean yet more slashing of public spending, pensions, pay. reformist labour gov or not - it will not mean a bigger slice of a smaller pie - they will be in weak positon trying to plug gaps in public finances with the forces of capital ripping into them on multiple fronts.

 

[redsquirrel]

We are where we are -

So we have to argue for more of the same?

Come on, this is myopia of incredible proportions. I'm not arguing that the picture those graphs show is all down to the EU, I'm arguing that "what worked before" didn't remotely work for millions. Hardly a controversial opinion for anyone who's even slightly on "the left", I'd have thought. You might want to remain in the EU but I can't seriously believe you want more Neo-liberalism?

And If you really do want to convince people to oppose leaving the EU then the last thing you want to be doing is arguing for is to turn the the clock back "to when things worked". If all you can offer them is to be continue to see their future, their kids futures getting shat on then you've absolutely no chance.

 

[JimW]

brexit means a major economic hit - however you slice it. that will mean yet more slashing of public spending, pensions, pay. reformist labour gov or not - it will not mean a bigger slice of a smaller pie - they will be in weak positon trying to plug gaps in public finances with the forces of capital ripping into them on multiple fronts.

I expect it not to be as major as made out and the opportunity to reverse corporation tax cuts etc give us a chance to sustain and grow a decent public sector, particularly if we start getting away from PFI and the rest.
Of course I might be wrong but to remain in the EU only embeds us deeper in a situation were "there is no alternative" and the onward march of technocracy and democracy-lite where any but the slightest deviation from remote policy is above your pay grade, citizen.

 

[CRI]

Why did "leave" win? Well, this for starters . . .

An £8.4m donation to the Leave campaign may have changed UK history | The Canary

On 29 July, a report [pdf] entitled Disinformation and ‘fake news’ emerged following a cross-party parliamentary inquiry. It examines “issues concerning the very future of democracy” in the UK following the EU referendum. Its findings are damning. But it also revealed [pdf, p51] that a Leave group received the “largest donation to a political campaign in British history”.

The report [pdf, p5] is unequivocal about the “deliberate distortion of facts” and “political manipulation” during the referendum. As a result, it states: “our democracy is at risk”. One detail also emerged that shakes the process of the referendum to its core. It states [pdf, p52] that Arron Banks, the founder of Leave.EU, donated a vast sum:

Arron Banks is believed to have donated £8.4 million to the Leave campaign, the largest political donation in British politics, but it is unclear from where he obtained that amount of money.

Leave.EU claims to have “played a decisive role” in winning the Brexit vote. The other key Leave.EU player was Nigel Farage.

and

MPs to dig deeper into online political ads

The Commons digital, culture, media and sports committee backed stricter electoral laws, new taxes on social media companies and limits on voter profiling, in an interim report leaked on Friday. Its full report, expected in the autumn, will include an analysis of a large quantity of data belonging to Aggregate IQ, a Canadian digital advertising company which carried out work for Vote Leave, the official pro-Brexit group.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

brexit means a major economic hit - however you slice it. that will mean yet more slashing of public spending, pensions, pay. reformist labour gov or not - it will not mean a bigger slice of a smaller pie - they will be in weak positon trying to plug gaps in public finances with the forces of capital ripping into them on multiple fronts.

“Internal pressure” the key phrase here, no one said brexit will automatically bring socialism.

 

[redsquirrel]

3. Stick with what worked before.

Whatever your views on the EU if you're on the left and unable to see the above for nasty I'm alright Jack shite that it is then you're a mug (at best).

 

[Raheem]

I expect it not to be as major as made out and the opportunity to reverse corporation tax cuts etc give us a chance to sustain and grow a decent public sector

Could you explain this a bit more? How is it you feel Brexit provides an opportunity to reverse corporation tax cuts etc?

 

[DexterTCN]

I expect it not to be as major as made out and the opportunity to reverse corporation tax cuts etc give us a chance to sustain and grow a decent public sector, particularly if we start getting away from PFI and the rest...

That is the exact opposite of what will happen.

 

[JimW]

Could you explain this a bit more? How is it you feel Brexit provides an opportunity to reverse corporation tax cuts etc?

As part of an overall opportunity to set a completely different sort of economic policy not tied to a set of free market rules.

 

[mx wcfc]

That is the exact opposite of what will happen.

well, exactly. Tories will argue lower Corporation taxes are needed to attract external investment etc.

 

[JimW]

That is the exact opposite of what will happen.

Because there'll be a permanent Tory majority for ever? They won't last a year.

 

[mx wcfc]

As part of an overall opportunity to set a completely different sort of economic policy not tied to a set of free market rules.

That needs a Corbyn government, not brexit.

 

[DexterTCN]

Because there'll be a permanent Tory majority for ever? They won't last a year.

It doesn't matter who is in government.

 

[redsquirrel]

No it needs a strong, empowered working class. To mx wcfc

 

[mx wcfc]

Because there'll be a permanent Tory majority for ever? They won't last a year.

Ok, I've got your argument now.

Brexit leads to fall of Tories, and a labour government. Seems reasonable, but tbf you missed a step in your first post, which threw a couple of us!

 

[DotCommunist]

its like the snap election literally never happened and there isn't a party proposing to raise corporation tax.

 

[JimW]

Ok, I've got your argument now.

Brexit leads to fall of Tories, and a labour government. Seems reasonable, but tbf you missed a step in your first post, which threw a couple of us!

Well, my view is more there's no hope of ever reversing that trend redsquirrel set out if we stay in the EU rather than it's nailed on if we do leave. Just that more possibilties open up.

 

[Supine]

As part of an overall opportunity to set a completely different sort of economic policy not tied to a set of free market rules.

Sounds like pie in the sky to me. Being in the EU hasn't tied us to free market rules and leaving isn't going to make any politicians stop following them. Do you have an example of what this new kind of economic policy would be?

 

[JimW]

Sounds like pie in the sky to me. Being in the EU hasn't tied us to free market rules and leaving isn't going to make any politicians stop following them. Do you have an example of what this new kind of economic policy would be?

Yes, send me an SAE and I'll post you my detailed costings.

 

[DexterTCN]

Yes, send me an SAE and I'll post you my detailed costings.

Any example will do.

 

[redsquirrel]

Is this seriously what this place has come to - we can't challenge neo-liberalism so we might as well just give up and accept the increasing poverty, the contraction of wages, the transfer of wealth from the poor to rich. There's no alternative that can be offered. Isn't socialism supposed to turn the world upside down?

Taking a realistic view of the future surely doesn't mean giving up on articulating something better, something that will really change people's lives for the better.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

We’ve to weesht and eat up our gruel.