Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Toast Rider]

Honestly, it baffles me why some people who claim to be ardent Labour supporters have so much faith in the Tories to do the right thing. Like when have the Tories EVER done the right fucking thing?

indeed.

I have no idea whether the EU would - bureacracy notwithstanding - withhold insulin, but I'm not entirely sure what these tories think is going to happen? Witholding medicine is inexcusable and I do not support the EU but we are here and this airy fairy nonsense from people who are themselves just as hardline as those they criticise is laughable

 

[ska invita]

Yes, exactly Labour. After all socialism is what Labour does isn't it? Just best ignore that troublesome beast labour.
Who has argued for any such thing. Christ you used to be better than this.

You and others above seem to be belittling those on this thread that don't want to see the economy tank/jobs get lost, dismissing it as "Socialists for GDP"! To me it comes across as flippant considering the times we live in.

We are on the verge of recession: last quarter had 0.1% growth...household debt is deeper than any time on record...high street chains are preparing for more job cuts in 2019....obviously we don't know what Brexit will really bring yet, but if it happens it will likely have a sizeable negative impact on the economy=on jobs and living standards, at a time that the economy is already teetering on the brink.

This stat is eye watering

According to ONS figures, the poorest 10% of households spent two and a half times their disposable income, on average, in the financial year ending 2017

yes we've had recessions before, you may feel its a price worth paying, but im genuinely worried...I dont think the full impact of 2008 crash has been faced up to yet...a little recession might be the best we have to look forward too...it could get a lot worse than that.

 

[CRI]

indeed.

I have no idea whether the EU would - bureacracy notwithstanding - withhold insulin, but I'm not entirely sure what these tories think is going to happen? Witholding medicine is inexcusable and I do not support the EU but we are here and this airy fairy nonsense from people who are themselves just as hardline as those they criticise is laughable

It wouldn't be withholding or delaying medicines out of spite, as some seem to be suggesting. There is a current system in place to regulate the distribution of medicines quickly that ensures quality and safety. It is the UK that have said, "we don't want that anymore," so there needs to be something to replace it. That will take time to set up and will inevitably cost, and this cost should be borne by the UK. Having to maintain a "special arrangement" with the UK even after it's set up will have an ongoing cost for the supplying countries, so it's a no brainer that they will be charging an extra premium to the UK. Why do some people seem to be surprised about this, or in a huff about it being unfair? Fucksake.

 

[andysays]

It wouldn't be withholding or delaying medicines out of spite, as some seem to be suggesting. There is a current system in place to regulate the distribution of medicines quickly that ensures quality and safety. It is the UK that have said, "we don't want that anymore," so there needs to be something to replace it. That will take time to set up and will inevitably cost, and this cost should be borne by the UK. Having to maintain a "special arrangement" with the UK even after it's set up will have an ongoing cost for the supplying countries, so it's a no brainer that they will be charging an extra premium to the UK. Why do some people seem to be surprised about this, or in a huff about it being unfair? Fucksake.

There's no inherent reason why anything need to change immediately.

If the NHS currently gets all its insulin from suppliers in the EU, they can continue to get all their insulin from the same suppliers after March 2019, unless the EU make it illegal or impractical for those suppliers to continue to sell their goods to Britain by imposing some sort of ban on exporting insulin, but why should they do that?

A problem which might occur would be once Britain has established its own insulin production industry, it wants to export some of it to the EU, and the EU argue either that it has to impose a tariff or that British insulin doesn't meet the standards required by EU law. But that doesn't mean British diabetics are suddenly going to find it impossible to get insulin when we leave the EU.

 

[xenon]

This withholding medicines thing. Has anyone in writing explained that it will happen and why? Of course certification and standards agreements have to be in place, like they are now. Are the respective EU and UK companies / regulators proposing that on day 1 of Brexit all existing standards no longer apply, certificates revoked? Why would they not remain in place until an alternative is agreed. Are EU border authorities going to stop shipments and fine companies for continuing to service existing contracts?

 

[redsquirrel]

Honestly, it baffles me why some people who claim to be ardent Labour supporters have so much faith in the Tories to do the right thing.

Who are these "ardent Labour supporters"?

You and others above seem to be belittling those on this thread that don't want to see the economy tank/jobs get lost, dismissing it as "Socialists for GDP"! To me it comes across as flippant considering the times we live in.

You're the one making the false claim that people are rooting for recession. You're the one pushing for "free trade" while claiming to be a socialist.

yes we've had recessions before, you may feel its a price worth paying,

Again this is a smear. Attacking the ideology of economics is not hoping for recession. Not buying into the liberal political construct of GDP does not mean you want to see people lose their jobs. I can't believe that I need to spell this out. You are accepting and furthering the political system that is responsible for the attacks on labour.

EDIT: Re-read this thread, think about the question kabbes asked here, about the points I made to paolo back in January (which they seem to have forgotten). This

but if it happens it will likely have a sizeable negative impact on the economy=on jobs and living standards

is not a neutral statement, it's a deeply ideologically political one.

 

[Supine]

This withholding medicines thing. Has anyone in writing explained that it will happen and why? Of course certification and standards agreements have to be in place, like they are now. Are the respective EU and UK companies / regulators proposing that on day 1 of Brexit all existing standards no longer apply, certificates revoked? Why would they not remain in place until an alternative is agreed. Are EU border authorities going to stop shipments and fine companies for continuing to service existing contracts?

The UK have requested that they leave the current legal arrangement for the transfer of pharmaceutical products. This is what brexit is, the stupidity of tearing up effective current agreements.

The latest government white paper has backed off to some kind of proposal for mutual recognition but the red line on legal jursidiction and oversight makes this difficult for an agreement to be made.

 

[DexterTCN]

There's no inherent reason why anything need to change immediately.

If the NHS currently gets all its insulin from suppliers in the EU, they can continue to get all their insulin from the same suppliers after March 2019, unless the EU make it illegal or impractical for those suppliers to continue to sell their goods to Britain by imposing some sort of ban on exporting insulin, but why should they do that?

A problem which might occur would be once Britain has established its own insulin production industry, it wants to export some of it to the EU, and the EU argue either that it has to impose a tariff or that British insulin doesn't meet the standards required by EU law. But that doesn't mean British diabetics are suddenly going to find it impossible to get insulin when we leave the EU.

Under what laws and regulations are these supplies going to come into the UK?

Which regulatory body is going to be responsible for them when they enter the UK?

Who's going to negotiate this trade, what is their budget and their remit, will the standards be the same and if not who is going to define the new ones?

What about all the other medicines?

Who is legally responsible if something bad happens, if anyone?

This should have been sorted out a long time ago, nothing has been done.

 

[xenon]

Lawyers will inevitably make a killing, is there any situation in which they don't. But the whole transition period thing is supposed to deal with switching over to new arrangements. This government are venal and fucking useless of course but I still don't think come 20/03/2019 all bilateral trade between the EU and UK will cease until such new arrangements are signed off.

 

[DexterTCN]

You only have a transition period if you have a deal.

Longer it goes on like this with fuck all happening...the bigger a hand the EU will have.

 

[ska invita]

You're the one making the false claim that people are rooting for recession. You're the one pushing for "free trade" while claiming to be a socialist.

Im not saying anyone is rooting for recession (although there is a real radition of that in the left), im saying some arent interested in the negative impact.

i note you didnt engage with that Protectionism thread - no one on the boards did in fact. I found that strange considering how much shit gets chatted on these boards...I put it down to the fact that its a difficult thing to take a position on. Feel free to mischaracterise me as a GDP-loving free-trade guru....my position seems to be the same as Militant/Socialist Party and others mentioned in the thread - who also went through the thought process and decided that in most cases free trade was better than protectionism for the advancement of socialism.

That's taking a position on the world as we find it - just like Lexiters who were prepared to vote for a position despite it being led by the openly racist right. Just as voting Lexit doesnt mean you support UKIP or Bannon, so thinking that free trade is better than protectionism doesn't mean you are a neoliberal. Its engaging with political reality as it exists and going from there.

Not buying into the liberal political construct of GDP does not mean you want to see people lose their jobs. I can't believe that I need to spell this out. You are accepting and furthering the political system that is responsible for the attacks on labour.

It sounds like you are in an ivory tower of ideological purity not wishing to engage with the world as it is...Deciding what conditions are most fertile for social change and improving the lives of the majority doesnt mean "furthering the political system", it means being strategic within it, and for me its about keeping peoples survival at the forefront.

An example: Im for Scottish independence on principle - always was. But if it meant a deepening of poverty in Scotland I wouldn't have supported it. I needed convincing that Scotland could go independent without it deepening what is already serious poverty in the country.

When people say "my life is shit, how much worse can it get", I don't think they realise how much worse it can get.Who feels it knows it.

 

[sleaterkinney]

There's no inherent reason why anything need to change immediately.

If the NHS currently gets all its insulin from suppliers in the EU, they can continue to get all their insulin from the same suppliers after March 2019, unless the EU make it illegal or impractical for those suppliers to continue to sell their goods to Britain by imposing some sort of ban on exporting insulin, but why should they do that?.

EU suppliers will have to have tariffs paid, so it will change.

If no deal occurs, it will mean increased checks at the ports, this will disrupt the flow into the UK.

 

[NoXion]

What would the point of tariffs be? If we don't produce our own insulin then there's no reason for such protectionist measures.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

If they came out tomorrow and said, "Y'know, this has all been a mistake. We were all mislead. We want to call it all off. Who's with us?" there would be a stampede to back them.

Fuck sakes, are you still this deluded?

 

[redsquirrel]

Im not saying anyone is rooting for recession (although there is a real radition of that in the left), im saying some arent interested in the negative impact.

Yes you are

Whats the name of that marxist tradition that actively seeks/hopes the economy will completely collapse so as to usher in the revolution? Its a shit plan that, whatever its called.

yes we've had recessions before, you may feel its a price worth paying, but im genuinely worried...I dont think the full impact of 2008 crash has been faced up to yet...a little recession might be the best we have to look forward too...it could get a lot worse than that.

---

i note you didnt engage with that Protectionism thread - no one on the boards did in fact. I found that strange considering how much shit gets chatted on these boards...I put it down to the fact that its a difficult thing to take a position on. Feel free to mischaracterise me as a GDP-loving free-trade guru....my position seems to be the same as Militant/Socialist Party and others mentioned in the thread - who also went through the thought process and decided that in most cases free trade was better than protectionism for the advancement of socialism.

No it's not. Tressell and Engles (as quoted by Roberts) both specifically point out the nonsense for socialist to "take a side" on the debate you try create. Your insistence that people must chose either protectionism or free trade (and your defence of the latter) just shows far from any socialist politics you have ended up.

It sounds like you are in an ivory tower of ideological purity not wishing to engage with the world as it is...

You're the one bound by ideology, the very ideology you claim to be opposed to. Read butchers posts on the thread I linked to. Think about whether the economy is now better than in the 70s? What about in the 90s? What does "good/bad for the economy" even mean?

 

[andysays]

EU suppliers will have to have tariffs paid, so it will change.

If no deal occurs, it will mean increased checks at the ports, this will disrupt the flow into the UK.

Who will be imposing these tariffs?

 

[sleaterkinney]

Who will be imposing these tariffs?

When something is imported from the EU it will incur tariffs, paid by the UK. It's what happens under trade rules, in this case WTO rules.

 

[DexterTCN]

2 years ago brexiters were being told this about trade and tariffs.

How would we spend all the tariff money if the EU wants to damage their trade with us?

 

[CRI]

Fuck sakes, are you still this deluded?

Kindly fuck off.

 

[Yogibear]

Not before the Tories implode and a new general election.

 

[DexterTCN]

Ah....looks like we don't have any rights under WTO either.

 

[J Ed]

Ah....looks like we don't have any rights under WTO either.

The Alex Jones of Remain

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Kindly fuck off.

Yes sir, sorry for not knowing my place, sir.

 

[CRI]

Here's a jolly explanation of what will happen regarding the import and export of food from 30th March of next year if there is "no deal."

This is what no-deal Brexit actually looks like

Downing Street could decide to unilaterally give up all these tests and procedures for goods coming into the UK. After all, it is now unbound from EU law. It can do what it likes.

Transport secretary Chris Grayling told the BBC categorically in March that "we will not impose checks" at the port of Dover.

Opening the border in this way would provide an open invitation for fraudsters. They could send anything to the UK they like - any food product, any drink, with any ingredient - knowing there would be no checks. The spot check system operating under EU law would vanish. There would be no documentation, no safeguards, no court oversight, and no supervision.

The other solution would be to turn away from the continent and start importing our food from across the Atlantic.

The problem with this idea is the existence of geography. The EU is not our main food supplier because of some metropolitan conspiracy by people who like brie. It's our main food supplier because it is close to us.

For America to replace this volume of trade flow in nine months is simply not realistic.

The EU rejects US standards on the levels of pesticides residue in fruit, for instance, hormone injections in beef and chlorine wash for poultry. It has strict and very welcome requirements on the excess and routine use of antimicrobials in agriculture.

We're a medium-sized country surrounded on both sides by massive trading entities. The reality is we'll either snuggle into the EU ecosystem or the US ecosystem - it's as simple as that.

So stick your fingers in your ears and sing La La La and keep on believing the magical Brexit Unicorn will ride in to make it all better, but it's going to be shit with no deal, pure unmitigated shit, and it will be all of the UK's making.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Y

You're the one bound by ideology, the very ideology you claim to be opposed to. Read butchers posts on the thread I linked to. Think about whether the economy is now better than in the 70s? What about in the 90s? What does "good/bad for the economy" even mean?

What does recession mean? Here and now, without political change or redistribution of wealth, with the patterns of ownership and power as we have them now, who gets hit in a recession? Looking forwards to what happens if the British economy starts to shrink post-tory-brexit, who suffers?

There have been a lot of 'you're not a socialist' accusations flying around on this thread at various points. Lots of false inferences, such as that you cheer on neoliberalism because you only see further destruction when one neoliberal construct disengages from another on the terms being offered, for instance. The ability to see something even fucking worse than what we have now, and not wanting that to happen.

And now this - people are not real socialists or whatever because they are concerned by the answer to the question of recessions, who they hit in this system, in this world as it is set up right now, and do not see that answer as anything other than just more shit for those least capable of coping with more shit.

I note that you haven't really addressed this. So tell me, who gets hit first in a recession in a capitalist economy such as the one we live in?

 

[a_chap]

Not before the Tories implode and a new general election.

I'm getting a little confused.

The Tories are imploding. Labour's exploding. The LibDems are never coming back. UKIP's down the drain. The Monster Raving Loony Party never recovered from the death of Screaming Lord Sutch.

Is it safe to assume that, in England, no-one will win any seats?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

What does recession mean?

To my friends David and Sarah?

Already their house is at risk as their middle child died two years ago this month and they’ve been battling to stay in a three bed place as they still have one boy and one girl alive. Sarah gets money from the state. Dave doesn’t, he’s sanctioned to shit, so the only way he can earn anything is illegally. He is now trapped in that situation, there really is no way out. His eldest boy has just left school with nothing. He has a job doing the night shift at the BP. That covers the costs of his smokes. The girl is now 16, so the council will soon chuck them out of their house.

You tell me what recession will mean to Dave & Sarah. And why they should give a flying fuck about it.

 

[Yogibear]

I'm getting a little confused.

The Tories are imploding. Labour's exploding. The LibDems are never coming back. UKIP's down the drain. The Monster Raving Loony Party never recovered from the death of Screaming Lord Sutch.

Is it safe to assume that, in England, no-one will win any seats?

In times like these I wouldn't assume anything. Just concentrate on what you would like to really happen.

 

[redsquirrel]

What does recession mean? Here and now, without political change or redistribution of wealth, with the patterns of ownership and power as we have them now, who gets hit in a recession? Looking forwards to what happens if the British economy starts to shrink post-tory-brexit, who suffers?

I note that you haven't really addressed this. So tell me, who gets hit first in a recession in a capitalist economy such as the one we live in?

So you want me to define and defend your political construct? Amazing.

You're the one talking about the UK leaving the EU will "harm the economy"*, will cause a recession. BTW the UK was out of recession by 84 so I guess the 80s were a time of plenty? Unlike in the mid-70s when the UK was the sick man of Europe.

(*like rolling back anti-strike legislation, increasing taxes, nationalising industries will also do - I guess those all should be off the table too)

 

[a_chap]

Just concentrate on what you would like to really happen.

I spent *years* doing that.

Bo Derek has yet to appear....