Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[paolo]

I have yet to see any explanation, with workings, of how brexit helps any of this shit, of how it does anything other than just make everything even worse.

At the risk of sounding like a flimsy “oh yeah what he said”

Yes.

The shit show is all consuming. Even if the current government wanted to sort out housing, healthcare... they’re a bit busy right now. And it would be the same under Labour (or any other party).

We’ve talked ourselves - no matter what leaning - into a box.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I have yet to see any explanation, with workings, of how brexit helps any of this shit, of how it does anything other than just make everything even worse.

Without access to a parallel universe where the vote was 52-48 the other way I fear quantitative analysis of this question will remain elusive. But remember, in that parallel universe Cameron is still the PM and he still has a majority in parliament. Corbyn has no electoral gains to wave under the noses of his detractors, and has quite possibly already been replaced by a less charismatic verson of Ed fucking Miliband. Boris Johnson, having been exposed to rather less scrutiny than he has in our universe, still has enough of a veneer of legitimacy to be positioning himself to stand for the tory leadership and a likely 2020 general election victory.

 

[DexterTCN]

Those issues exist as we stand, long term turn against EDIT manufacturing and towards financial services etc. While we remain in the EU that will be propped up and continue to hollow out any real economy.

I'm asking what the UK will bring to the table after brexit.

It's a perfectly sane, reasonable and required question to ask.

As a general comment, not towards you, the talk on this thread has been garbage. Fantasy economics, stoner solutions, claimed moral superiority. Absolute garbage. Just like brexit itself.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm asking what the UK will bring to the table after brexit.

It's a perfectly sane, reasonable and required question to ask.

It's also perfectly sane and reasonable to point out that the structure of our economy has been a problem since long before brexit.

If you think addressing the trade deficit is a priority then you should be over the moon, as brexit will force the government to address it as a matter of urgency rather than blindly allow finance and services to grow at the expense of everything else.

 

[paolo]

Without access to a parallel universe where the vote was 52-48 the other way I fear quantitative analysis of this question will remain elusive. But remember, in that parallel universe Cameron is still the PM and he still has a majority in parliament. Corbyn has no electoral gains to wave under the noses of his detractors, and has quite possibly already been replaced by a less charismatic verson of Ed fucking Miliband. Boris Johnson, having been explosed to rather less scrutiny than he has in our universe, still has enough of a veneer of legitimacy to be positioning himself to stand for the tory leadership and a likely 2020 general election victory.

You’ve painted the worst outcome.

Tip of the hat though on your analysis... that could have indeed happened.

Would it have been worth it, to avoid this shit show?

Open question.

 

[JimW]

I'm asking what the UK will bring to the table after brexit.

It's a perfectly sane, reasonable and required question to ask.

As a general comment, not towards you, the talk on this thread has been garbage. Fantasy economics, stoner solutions, claimed moral superiority. Absolute garbage. Just like brexit itself.

And I'm saying pretty much the same as it does now with problems arising from that factor you point out, a fair amount of it as currently set up is predicated on our access to the EU market. But while there'll be a hit i think the general inertia of things means it won't be as severe as worst case scenarios - city will remain the bloated heart of a largely service economy etc.
It's not fantasy economics, it's prioritising things other than headline GDP figures and seeing this as an opportunity to turn away from the sort of finance capitalism that will only get more deeply embedded if we stay in the EU.

 

[redsquirrel]

Trade union/Labour movement right there.

Yes, exactly Labour. After all socialism is what Labour does isn't it? Just best ignore that troublesome beast labour.

Whats the name of that marxist tradition that actively seeks/hopes the economy will completely collapse so as to usher in the revolution? Its a shit plan that, whatever its called.

Who has argued for any such thing. Christ you used to be better than this.

 

[SpookyFrank]

You’ve painted the worst outcome.

Tip of the hat though on your analysis... that could have indeed happened.

Would it have been worth it, to avoid this shit show?

Open question.

I haven't painted the worst outcome at all, only what seems most likely to me. But in general it's not that helpful to spend too much time thinking about the world we don't have and whether we would go there if we could. That world doesn't exist, only this one.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Without access to a parallel universe where the vote was 52-48 the other way I fear quantitative analysis of this question will remain elusive. But remember, in that parallel universe Cameron is still the PM and he still has a majority in parliament. Corbyn has no electoral gains to wave under the noses of his detractors, and has quite possibly already been replaced by a less charismatic verson of Ed fucking Miliband. Boris Johnson, having been explosed to rather less scrutiny than he has in our universe, still has enough of a veneer of legitimacy to be positioning himself to stand for the tory leadership and a likely 2020 general election victory.

A narrow remain vote would have left Cameron in power with a majority, yes, but the tories still leaking votes to UKIP, still in all kinds of crises. Would he have clung to power? Probably - that's what tories do - while lurching from one disaster to the next. Would Corbyn have survived in such a situation? He was elected on a massive landslide, remember, and it would not have been easy to get rid of him. The tories might still have been in a situation of perpetual crisis and meltdown over Europe, leaving the real possibility of a Corbyn-led govt in 2020.

You're right that we can't know, but the idea that what we can know - ie what has happened over the last two years - is in any way a positive thing is, imo, bonkers wishful thinking.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Y

Who has argued for any such thing. Christ you used to be better than this.

You misrepresented what I said, though, tbf. Within the current system, without any kind of plan to change it, the idea that we shouldn't worry about GDP going down is crazy - recession, which is what we're talking about, hits the poor first and deepest. It's schoolboy politics to pretend otherwise.

 

[paolo]

Who has argued for any such thing. Christ you used to be better than this.

It’s been done on here before (very quickly shouted down). One or two posters argued that the banking collapse was all win.

Most - if I remember the threads, ten years now - knew that it was a horror show, no big win.

 

[redsquirrel]

It’s been done on here before (very quickly shouted down). One or two posters argued that the banking collapse was all win.

Bullshit. Evidence.

 

[paolo]

Bullshit. Evidence.

The urban 75 thread on the 2008 banking collapse is here. Inside this very forum. The editor hasn’t deleted opinions.

(Find the the thread yourself. We all posted on it. Not my job to prove that we did.)

 

[Poi E]

But whatever happens will divide the nation.

The UK is already divided many ways. Brexit is not only the cause of division but also a symptom.

 

[redsquirrel]

You misrepresented what I said, though, tbf. Within the current system, without any kind of plan to change it, the idea that we shouldn't worry about GDP going down is crazy - recession, which is what we're talking about, hits the poor first and deepest. It's schoolboy politics to pretend otherwise.

Neither I, BA or kabbes misrepresented anything. You're asserting that GDP is a measure or prosperity that "economic growth" is good. Nevermind that inequality has grown as GDP has increased, that the welfare state has been dismantled, that anti-strike legislation has been passed in the name of growth.

 

[redsquirrel]

Not my job to prove that we did.

If you're going to make such claims it is. There are no, and haven't been any (barring perhaps the odd troll or two) proponents of immiseration on U75.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Neither I, BA or kabbes misrepresented anything. You're asserting that GDP is a measure or prosperity that "economic growth" is good. Nevermind that inequality has grown as GDP has increased, that the welfare state has been dismantled, that anti-strike legislation has been passed in the name of growth.

No I'm not asserting that. I responded to a point about not worrying about losing a few points of GDP due to brexit. That was not me asserting that GDP as a measure of prosperity is good. It was me pointing out that what is being not worried about here is recession, and recessions hit the poor first and hardest.

You have a plan for a socialist future in which a smaller pot is divided far more equitably? I'm all ears. But for the current discussion, you need to link that to a Tory-led brexit - you know, the thing that's actually happening right now.

 

[JimW]

No I'm not asserting that. I responded to a point about not worrying about losing a few points of GDP due to brexit. That was not me asserting that GDP as a measure of prosperity is good. It was me pointing out that what is being not worried about here is recession, and recessions hit the poor first and hardest.

You have a plan for a socialist future in which a smaller pot is divided far more equitably? I'm all ears. But for the current discussion, you need to link that to a Tory-led brexit - you know, the thing that's actually happening right now.

C'mon, LBJ, even some mildly reformist labour government would face capital flight and all the rest of the tricks but surely you'd not give that as a reason never to try to change anything? Same with the EU to my mind.

 

[paolo]

The UK is already divided many ways. Brexit is not only the cause of division but also a symptom.

It’s certainly a symptom of something. Maybe it’s complicated - not just the disentangling - because there’s many different reasonings.

I voted remain. When I talk to people who voted leave... there is no consistent answer. It’s a conversation about understanding not point scoring.

I hear people who have genuine views, and they always different. I can barely remember one if any I’d chuck under the tedious “you’re all racists”

I’m waffling now.

If you're going to make such claims it is. There are no, and haven't been any (barring perhaps the odd troll or two) proponents of immiseration on U75.

There ARE threads about the 2008 collapse.

Read them

(fair to say this is a tangent... ignore)

 

[redsquirrel]

There ARE threads about the 2008 collapse.

Read them!

You made the claim you provide evidence of it.

You don't seem to understand that an attack on the ideology of economics is not the same as arguing in favour of immiseration*. Despite the fact that I previously outlined the ideology that you were implicitly accepting was what was used to justify the increase in inequality that has occurred over the lat 40 years.

You have a plan for a socialist future in which a smaller pot is divided far more equitably? I'm all ears. But for the current discussion, you need to link that to a Tory-led brexit - you know, the thing that's actually happening right now.

The assertion that there must be a smaller pot is (yet again) an acceptance of GDP being related to prosperity. You are arguing that a recession (i.e. a decrease in GDP) is related to prosperity, so by definition defending the ideology of economics. As for the above point what JimW said. You used to claim to be a socialist, so are you giving up on that now? Wet liberalism is all that is possible so we all better climb into that boat?

EDIT: * I should have said "what is commonly described as immiseration".

 

[SpackleFrog]

But for the current discussion, you need to link that to a Tory-led brexit - you know, the thing that's actually happening right now.

...not actually happening though is it?

 

[paolo]

...not actually happening though is it?

A Tory led Brexit isn’t happening?

Say that again, and repeat each word slowly.

 

[paolo]

Although to be fair, the current results of the negotiation could have been dreamt up over London and foyr pints in the Albert.

We’d pat outselves, six stallas - yeah this would work. And then stagger home. It’s Johnson style win!

 

[not-bono-ever]

GDP is a measure of nothing except GDP- this is pretty mainsream thought now both indside and outside the trade

 

[SpackleFrog]

A Tory led Brexit isn’t happening?

Say that again, and repeat each word slowly.

Well it's not, is it?

 

[CRI]

Good old Steve, coming over to lend a hand.

Ex-Trump strategist Bannon targets Britain in anti-EU campaign

Bannon, a former chairman of the right-wing Breitbart.com website and an architect of Trump’s 2016 election win, has launched a project to coordinate and bolster the anti-EU vote across the European Union.

He held a series of meetings in London this month after launching a Brussels-based political organization he says is intended to undermine, and ultimately paralyse, the EU.

Bannon said he had been in direct contact with Johnson and two other potential challengers to May: Michael Gove, who is still a member of May’s cabinet, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, a leader of an anti-EU Conservative Party faction.

“Boris Johnson is one of the most important persons on the world stage today,” Bannon said. He described Johnson as “his own guy” and said he had “texted a lot” with him and spoken by phone with him during this month’s London trip.

Bannon said he had been in contact some time ago with Gove and had also been in touch with Rees-Mogg. The three represented a “deep talent bench” of potential anti-EU leaders for the Conservative Party, Bannon said.

 

[paolo]

Well it's not, is it?

Go word by word.

Is this Tory led?

 

[SpackleFrog]

Go word by word.

Is this Tory led?

Is what Tory led?

Why don't you think about what you're saying before you try and fail to be amusing?

 

[paolo]

Is what Tory led?

Why don't you think about what you're saying before you try and fail to be amusing?

This is a thread about Brexit.

I’m not not trying to be amusing, just give context.

 

[redsquirrel]

A Tory led Brexit isn’t happening?

Say that again, and repeat each word slowly.

Tories - check, Leave - check, Remain - check, Labour - check.

capital, labour, the working class - cue tumbleweeds and whistling of wind.