Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[kabbes]

No, the second part is not all that controversial, I was more interested in the first.

What exactly is it you are questioning? That GDP is twice as high in real terms now as in the 70s? I’ve posted the evidence on that before — it’s not hard to find, given that it’s a statistic published by the government itself.

The premise is silly in any case. Few people are specifically worried about a drop in gdp. They are worried about continued rises in living costs, decreases in wages, increased unemployment and sustained reductions in public spending, inter alia.

The percentage drop in GDP is the figure always quoted as what we should be worried about. And existing drops in wages over time (look up statistics for real wage growth since the 70s whilst you’re at it) are exactly why so many people voted for Brexit in the first place.

 

[Poi E]

Same here - I voted remain not out of love for the EU, but because of concern about how it would pan out on a geo-strategic level - however now I'd vote to leave. I still have the same concerns, but nothing about how the EU has behaved, and how other EU members behave as members of NATO, has persuaded me that I want to be in their club.

I think one of the IFS studies reckoned that with a bad Brexit we'd end up being 9% poorer than we'd otherwise be in 2030 - well, when I got divorced I was a damn sight more than 9% poorer than I would have been had I stayed married for another 10 years, and I regard every lost penny as being a bargain at 10 times the price.

I'm aware of the dangers of Brexit, big fat political and strategic dangers, not piss arse economics - but I'm also aware of the dangers of remaining in the EU given the directions it's moving in, and of doing anything that undermines the already fragile (and under attack) commitment to democracy in the UK.

Not relevant but pretty much the same reasons I support Scottish independence. Just swap EU for the British state. One has has a much more bloodthirsty history, though.

 

[redsquirrel]

"Socialists" for economics! Save our GDP!

This is bullshit. The continuing cuts to councils are real. The continuing cuts to the NHS are real. The continuing widening of the gap between rich and poor is real.

The premise is silly in any case. Few people are specifically worried about a drop in gdp. They are worried about continued rises in living costs, decreases in wages, increased unemployment and sustained reductions in public spending, inter alia.

Thank goodness those cuts, the attacks on the welfare state, the rise in VAT didn't occur when the UK was part of the EU. Just think where we would be then!

 

[Wolveryeti]

Brexit recriminations spilling over into candidate selection:

Vauxhall Labour prepares to deselect Kate Hoey | LabourList

 

[teqniq]

And Frank Field.

 

[gentlegreen]

Could someone please summarise Hoey's and Field's motivations for supporting Brexit ?

 

[SpookyFrank]

This is bullshit. The continuing cuts to councils are real. The continuing cuts to the NHS are real. The continuing widening of the gap between rich and poor is real.

These are government policies though, not immutable economic facts. Don't forget that even at its current dire level of funding the NHS would be running a lot smoother without the ideology-driven privatisations of the last decade.

 

[DotCommunist]

And Frank Field.

good

 

[DownwardDog]

I would switch from remain to leave because the EU are fucks and I don’t want to be part of their club on principle, even if it does cost us precious GDP points.

They are negotiating in the interests of and at the direction of the 27 countries who will be staying. They don't owe the UK any favours or mercy.

 

[DexterTCN]

These are government policies though, not immutable economic facts. Don't forget that even at its current dire level of funding the NHS would be running a lot smoother without the ideology-driven privatisations of the last decade.

Do you think that will get better or worse with brexit?

 

[kabbes]

They are negotiating in the interests of and at the direction of the 27 countries who will be staying. They don't owe the UK any favours or mercy.

Doesn’t explain the rest of the rightward march of politics across Europe, though.

Also, the EU’s attitude towards a number of Brexit items goes way beyond enlightened self-interest and deep into the uncomfortably ideological.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Do you think that will get better or worse with brexit?

I think it was going to get worse either way.

 

[SpookyFrank]

They are negotiating in the interests of and at the direction of the 27 countries who will be staying. They don't owe the UK any favours or mercy.

Favours and mercy one thing, basic respect quite another. I understand the EU's frustration with the UK's political class (so far removed from the unimpeachable standards of politicians in the rest of Europe ) but there are 70-odd million people in this country that deserve better than to be put through the wringer just in order to teach a handful of incompetent tory buffoons a lesson.

Whatever deal we get it will be the result of a small group of people with one set of agendas quibbling with another small group of people with a different set of agendas. There is nothing at all to indicate that any of the agendas involved relate in any way to the welfare of the general public, in the UK or elsewhere in Europe. That is a problem regardless of whatever the actual deal is.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Favours and mercy one thing, basic respect quite another. I understand the EU's frustration with the UK's political class (so far removed from the unimpeachable standards of politicians in the rest of Europe ) but there are 70-odd million people in this country that deserve better than to be put through the wringer just in order to teach a handful of incompetent tory buffoons a lesson.

Not to mention the THREE MILLION non-UK EU citizens who are making their lives in the UK.

 

[JimW]

Strikes me they're negotiating in the interests of the EU as an institution (punishment for want-aways etc) rather than those of 27 member states, many of whom probably want to keep fairly matey and trading with us.

 

[DexterTCN]

Strikes me they're negotiating in the interests of the EU as an institution (punishment for want-aways etc) rather than those of 27 member states, many of whom probably want to keep fairly matey and trading with us.

And which states does the UK have as mates in the EU?

And what will be traded?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Strikes me they're negotiating in the interests of the EU as an institution (punishment for want-aways etc) rather than those of 27 member states, many of whom probably want to keep fairly matey and trading with us.

Everything they do is for the EU as an institution rather than the people in it. Anything they do that might actually benefit people is only a bribe. Same as politics at any scale, everyone's first priority is to keep themselves on the gravy train and everything else follows from that.

 

[SpookyFrank]

And what will be traded?

Someone's got to drink all that Polish beer.

 

[DexterTCN]

Someone's got to drink all that Polish beer.

No...what will the UK trade to have equity to conduct business?

 

[SpookyFrank]

No...what will the UK trade to have equity to conduct business?

There's this new thing called 'money'.

 

[JimW]

No...what will the UK trade to have equity to conduct business?

HM Revenue & Customs uktradeinfo - Commodities

ETA and particularly where we have a balance of trade deficit they'll be keen to keep selling to us

 

[DexterTCN]

There's this new thing called 'money'.

Are you being deliberately disingenuous?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Are you being deliberately disingenuous?

Are you? You are aware that even while we're still in the EU we have to trade stuff with other people? We don't just get piles of free stuff?

 

[paolo]

I wonder how long all of this will go on.

My current feeling: Forever, in my lifetime at least.

There’ll be an outcome sure. A deal or no deal.

But whatever happens will divide the nation. Too soft, too hard, or “shouldn’t have happened”. And we’ll be picking through the detail for years and years and years.

This is the shit show train that departed... and will never arrive. Welcome aboard (The buffet has run out of drinks).

 

[sleaterkinney]

HM Revenue & Customs uktradeinfo - Commodities

ETA and particularly where we have a balance of trade deficit they'll be keen to keep selling to us

Are we back at BMW taking over negotiations now?.

 

[Wolveryeti]

Strikes me they're negotiating in the interests of the EU as an institution (punishment for want-aways etc) rather than those of 27 member states, many of whom probably want to keep fairly matey and trading with us.

Not really. The 27 member states have a shared concern in not having their social and environmental chapters undermined through letting in cheap goods from the rest of the world via a leaky UK soft border. Likewise, given the UK is already being taken to court for not collecting customs duties, why should the EU have faith that it would diligently collect and pass on duties for EU-bound goods passing its borders?

 

[DexterTCN]

HM Revenue & Customs uktradeinfo - Commodities

ETA and particularly where we have a balance of trade deficit they'll be keen to keep selling to us

OK let's start with that Jim...and I should point out that that's my employer you're quoting there...(and I've had this conversation before in this thread)...

Precious metals, jewels and cars are not UK products...the UK is a conduit for them primarily because of the attractiveness of its connections and pre-established (EU) trading contracts around the world.

What does the UK create/produce/generate independently that can be used to strengthen the pound and make the currency trade-able and attractive in order to sustain the internal economy and ensure a reasonable standard of living for the citizens?

A balance of trade deficit means you get fucked over, you don't improve your situation, you're not at the big table you just feed off the scraps.

What does the UK have to trade that originates in the UK so that the UK has control over supply/price and can demand returned equity? And it has to be on an international scale so as to keep an economy buoyant and adaptable, protected against bubbles/depressions/unknowns?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

These are government policies though, not immutable economic facts. Don't forget that even at its current dire level of funding the NHS would be running a lot smoother without the ideology-driven privatisations of the last decade.

Yes, of course. And they are continuing, more than two years after the brexit vote. Certain aspects of the basketcase 'austerity' policies are being softened a little, but I'd argue that that's not really anything to do with brexit. Thatcher had to abandon some of her loony monetarist policies too when it became clear that they didn't work. Other aspects of it are still working their way through onto the streets - literally onto the streets in the case of the explosion of homelessness over the last couple of years.

I have yet to see any explanation, with workings, of how brexit helps any of this shit, of how it does anything other than just make everything even worse.

 

[JimW]

OK let's start with that Jim...and I should point out that that's my employer you're quoting there...(and I've had this conversation before in this thread)...

Precious metals, jewels and cars are not UK products...the UK is a conduit for them primarily because of the attractiveness of its connections and pre-established (EU) trading contracts around the world.

What does the UK create/produce/generate independently that can be used to strengthen the pound and make the currency trade-able and attractive in order to sustain the internal economy and ensure a reasonable standard of living for the citizens?

A balance of trade deficit means you get fucked over, you don't improve your situation, you're not at the big table you just feed off the scraps.

What does the UK have to trade that originates in the UK so that the UK has control over supply/price and can demand returned equity? And it has to be on an international scale so as to keep an economy buoyant and adaptable, protected against bubbles/depressions/unknowns?

Those issues exist as we stand, long term turn against EDIT manufacturing and towards financial services etc. While we remain in the EU that will be propped up and continue to hollow out any real economy.

 

[ska invita]

I reckon we are going to have a second referendum with 60% or more voting to remain. And all this will go down as one of the most costly and embarrassing periods in our history..

Doesn't make the top 50 things Britannia has good reason to be embarrassed about.

Easy thing for a rich person to say. Losing 'precious GDP points' translates into unemployment and the poor being squeezed even more, especially as we currently have a tory govt.

Let them eat high return investment portfolios

"Socialists" for economics! Save our GDP!

Trade union/Labour movement right there.

Whats the name of that marxist tradition that actively seeks/hopes the economy will completely collapse so as to usher in the revolution? Its a shit plan that, whatever its called.