Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[gentlegreen]

How's the weight loss going?

With this weather not going bad actually
Thanks for asking
(warning for anybody do not do the Atkins one)

How are you managing to fail to quote properly ?

 

[billbond]

How are you managing to fail to quote properly ?

its a gift ha
Yes my mistake

 

[redsquirrel]

As argued in this economist's blog. . .

mainly macro: Brexit Endgame: second stage (which is unlikely to end with no deal)

Lovely, friendly economists.

 

[redsquirrel]

And here it comes: A humiliating Brexit deal risks a descent into Weimar Britain | Timothy Garton Ash

Grasping attempt at comparing Versailles to the Brexit negotiations here folks.

Do you have any idea about Garton Ash's politics? He's utterly committed to the EU and liberalism, the suggestion that he's a "brexiteer" is ludicrous.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

With Theresa May playing Sally Bowles...

Tomorrow belongs to Mogg

 

[isvicthere?]

I bet they don't really. What they want is brexit at no cost.

Well, that WAS what the leave campaign promised them.

 

[gentlegreen]

Well, that WAS what the leave campaign promised them.

Indeed

"Outside the EU we could have prosperity on a level that we can't even imagine now"

 

[SpackleFrog]

I reckon we are going to have a second referendum with 60% or more voting to remain. And all this will go down as one of the most costly and embarrassing periods in our history.

The far right and extreme Brexiteers wont take it well and i suspect we are going to have years or civil unrest instigated by them. Terrorism and agitation.

If we have another referendum, which we might, the result will be virtually the same. Perhaps with a slight increase in the Leave vote, say from 52% to 53 or 54%. Any idea that Remain would get a huge swing is just magical thinking. Large numbers of people have not changed their mind on the issue and some remain voters will see it as an attempt to reverse a democratic decision.

 

[SpackleFrog]

If slightly over half the country voted out, and slightly under voted in, then you’d have thought some kind of soft brexit half-in, half-out compromise would actually be the most representative outcome. How come it seems to please pretty much nobody?

Probably would please most actual people but you can't get a majority for it in the commons.

 

[kabbes]

If we have another referendum, which we might, the result will be virtually the same. Perhaps with a slight increase in the Leave vote, say from 52% to 53 or 54%. Any idea that Remain would get a huge swing is just magical thinking. Large numbers of people have not changed their mind on the issue and some remain voters will see it as an attempt to reverse a democratic decision.

I would switch from remain to leave because the EU are fucks and I don’t want to be part of their club on principle, even if it does cost us precious GDP points.

 

[kebabking]

I would switch from remain to leave because the EU are fucks and I don’t want to be part of their club on principle, even if it does cost us precious GDP points.

Same here - I voted remain not out of love for the EU, but because of concern about how it would pan out on a geo-strategic level - however now I'd vote to leave. I still have the same concerns, but nothing about how the EU has behaved, and how other EU members behave as members of NATO, has persuaded me that I want to be in their club.

I think one of the IFS studies reckoned that with a bad Brexit we'd end up being 9% poorer than we'd otherwise be in 2030 - well, when I got divorced I was a damn sight more than 9% poorer than I would have been had I stayed married for another 10 years, and I regard every lost penny as being a bargain at 10 times the price.

I'm aware of the dangers of Brexit, big fat political and strategic dangers, not piss arse economics - but I'm also aware of the dangers of remaining in the EU given the directions it's moving in, and of doing anything that undermines the already fragile (and under attack) commitment to democracy in the UK.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I would switch from remain to leave because the EU are fucks and I don’t want to be part of their club on principle, even if it does cost us precious GDP points.

How are they fucks?. Bear in mind they've had to deal with people who've taken years to come to a position which would never actually work.

 

[kabbes]

How are they fucks?. Bear in mind they've had to deal with people who've taken years to come to a position which would never actually work.

See the last 316 pages

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I would switch from remain to leave because the EU are fucks and I don’t want to be part of their club on principle, even if it does cost us precious GDP points.

Easy thing for a rich person to say. Losing 'precious GDP points' translates into unemployment and the poor being squeezed even more, especially as we currently have a tory govt.

 

[kabbes]

Easy thing for a rich person to say. Losing 'precious GDP points' translates into unemployment and the poor being squeezed even more, especially as we currently have a tory govt.

GDP was half in real terms in the 1970s than it is now. Are the poor now twice as well off as they were in the the 1970s? Or is it that GDP is a lousy way of measuring wellbeing for a country?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

GDP was half in real terms in the 1970s. Are the poor now twice as well off as they were in the the 1970s? Or is it that GDP is a lousy way of measuring wellbeing for a country?

yeah, the rich were far less rich back then. If this country 'loses a few precious gdp points' under this current economic system, a system that is no better exemplified than by the people currently negotiating brexit, what does that actually mean? Does it mean the rich get a little less rich while the rest carry on the same? No. And you must know that.

 

[kabbes]

yeah, the rich were far less rich back then. If this country 'loses a few precious gdp points' under this current economic system, a system that is no better exemplified than by the people currently negotiating brexit, what does that actually mean? Does it mean the rich get a little less rich while the rest carry on the same? No. And you must know that.

It shows that the well-being of the nation is not dependent on maximising GDP. The rest is strategy for removing the wrong people from power. And the current strategy of Brexit is doing a better job of exploding the Tories than the previous strategy ever was.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It shows that the well-being of the nation is not dependent on maximising GDP. The rest is strategy for removing the wrong people from power. And the current strategy of Brexit is doing a better job of exploding the Tories than the previous strategy ever was.

Like fuck it is. Who's still in power? What kinds of cunty fucking policies are they continuing to implement? Who continues to get even richer? Who continues to be ever more fucked?

 

[kabbes]

Like fuck it is. Who's still in power?

A minority government after the last Tory government lost power post-Brexit.

What kinds of cunty fucking policies are they continuing to implement? Who continues to get even richer?

Fuck all really because they have so little bandwidth with no majority and Brexit to focus on.

Who continues to be ever more fucked?

As compared with the pre-Brexit Tory majority, you mean?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As compared with the pre-Brexit Tory majority, you mean?

Two years. A lot can happen in two years. In these last two years the tories have continued in power and continue with their vicious, murderous cuts. To somehow claim victory for the brexit vote when we are still being fucked is bizarre. Who knows what would have happened with a narrow remain vote? Not like Cameron was secure in his position. We don't know. What we do know is that with a narrow leave vote the tories renewed themselves and clung to power.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Fuck all really because they have so little bandwidth with no majority and Brexit to focus on.

This is bullshit. The continuing cuts to councils are real. The continuing cuts to the NHS are real. The continuing widening of the gap between rich and poor is real.

 

[butchersapron]

Like fuck it is. Who's still in power? What kinds of cunty fucking policies are they continuing to implement? Who continues to get even richer? Who continues to be ever more fucked?

I want my lolly right now mum.

 

[butchersapron]

This is bullshit. The continuing cuts to councils are real. The continuing cuts to the NHS are real. The continuing widening of the gap between rich and poor is real.

Friday night LBJ? Literally using opposition to inequality to attack you. The private school twat. Just happened.


Just ended up editing that famous mag.

 

[toblerone3]

I would switch from remain to leave because the EU are fucks and I don’t want to be part of their club on principle, even if it does cost us precious GDP points.

Many of the people who voted leave the first time and would be running policy post-Brexit are even worse fucks and many more people are seeing that. You are swimming against the tide. Many more people will switch the other way I believe. To blame the EU for what has happened over the past two years in the negotiations is myopic in the extreme.

 

[butchersapron]

Many of the people who voted leave the first time and would be running policy post-Brexit are even worse fucks and many more people are seeing that. You are swimming against the tide. Many more people will switch the other way I believe. To blame the EU for what has happened over the past two years in the negotiations is myopic in the extreme.

Name them.

Evidence this tide-turning swimming shit metaphor.

 

[toblerone3]

Name them.

Evidence this tide-turning swimming shit metaphor.

Yawn...I'm going to bed.

 

[Raheem]

GDP was half in real terms in the 1970s than it is now. Are the poor now twice as well off as they were in the the 1970s? Or is it that GDP is a lousy way of measuring wellbeing for a country?

I wouldn't be at all surprised if both of those things are true. But I'm pretty sure you will have done thorough research, so perhaps you could share it with us.

 

[JimW]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if both of those things are true. But I'm pretty sure you will have done thorough research, so perhaps you could share it with us.

It's hardly a controversial point, just do a quick search on GDP as a measure of well-being for hundreds of articles.

 

[Raheem]

It's hardly a controversial point, just do a quick search on GDP as a measure of well-being for hundreds of articles.

No, the second part is not all that controversial, I was more interested in the first.

The premise is silly in any case. Few people are specifically worried about a drop in gdp. They are worried about continued rises in living costs, decreases in wages, increased unemployment and sustained reductions in public spending, inter alia.

 

[JimW]

No, the second part is not all that controversial, I was more interested in the first.

The premise is silly in any case. Few people are specifically worried about a drop in gdp. They are worried about continued rises in living costs, decreases in wages, increased unemployment and sustained reductions in public spending, inter alia.

Fair enough; there's definitely studies showing that more people on low incomes reported greater happiness and security in the 1970s; less housing stress etc.
As for those latter issues, they've all been worsening over decades in large part thanks to the neoliberal policies pursued while we were part of the EU so while the disruption of transition might well make contribute to further declines its not like those policies wouldn't have been pursued in any case and IMO we have more chance of doing something to reverse them outside the EU.