It most certainly is
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
It most certainly is
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
I'll add the usual, "I'm not an expert..." disclaimer, but it's based on gambling on what happens next - betting on the direction that the pound will go for example.
(Farage is accused of doing that - though not all that seriously - on referendum night by coming out and saying that Remain had won, which sent the pound soaring, when it's been said that the polling that his side commissioned showed that Leave should win....)
More credibly, Crispin Odey, one of the major funders of the Leave side, was said to have made "hundreds of millions of pounds" on the referendum.
Crispin Odey
And continues to bet against the UK economy, reportedly:
Brexit-backing fund manager bets against UK assets
There's also a suspicion that the EU is going to be more proactive on tax avoidance and possibly other financial regulation in the near future. Of course, if there's an election and a Corbyn government nationalises the City...
(Farage is accused of doing that - though not all that seriously - on referendum night by coming out and saying that Remain had won, which sent the pound soaring, when it's been said that the polling that his side commissioned showed that Leave should win....)
More credibly, Crispin Odey, one of the major funders of the Leave side, was said to have made "hundreds of millions of pounds" on the referendum.
Crispin Odey
And continues to bet against the UK economy, reportedly:
Brexit-backing fund manager bets against UK assets
There's also a suspicion that the EU is going to be more proactive on tax avoidance and possibly other financial regulation in the near future. Of course, if there's an election and a Corbyn government nationalises the City...
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Hedge funds offer to invest your money so that it will grow whichever way a given event pans out. So Brexit means customers.
not-bono-ever
meh
take a stance to exploit market moves should a hard brexit ensue- eg shorting securities where their income flow is EU/UK based rather than US based. Ditto leveraging on currencies ( and by default their rates). many different ways to do this.
There's this coming into effect for EU members in 2019. Probably one Rees Mogg and co will be keen on not implementing.
The Anti Tax Avoidance Directive - Taxation and Customs Union - European Commission
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Hedge funders etc - Some short term speculative gains to be made, but longer term it’s definitely about avoiding regulation/oversight, plus a smaller country is easier to buy than a multi-nation organisation. Most of the brexit funders seem to be on the fringes of the finance industry, opaque offshore bastards, egoists.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Cool headed assessment of how difficult stockpiling food would be in the event of a crash out.
Stockpile food in the event of a no-deal Brexit? Dream on | James Ball
Basically - there is no way the UKs food supply chain will be able to cope and government stuff about ensuring "adequate food" are just part of a bluff. In reality there is no way a government will allow this sort of chaos to happen and no deal will not happen. Im sure the EU know this is as well.
I think some sort of extension to the A50 process is inevitable - and it will probably cost May her job.
Stockpile food in the event of a no-deal Brexit? Dream on | James Ball
Basically - there is no way the UKs food supply chain will be able to cope and government stuff about ensuring "adequate food" are just part of a bluff. In reality there is no way a government will allow this sort of chaos to happen and no deal will not happen. Im sure the EU know this is as well.
I think some sort of extension to the A50 process is inevitable - and it will probably cost May her job.
not-bono-ever
meh
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MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
"You cannot see Barnier's mouth move when Raab speaks. Impressive."
Ho ho. From not-very-popular centrist legal person.
Ho ho. From not-very-popular centrist legal person.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Saw it.
not-bono-ever
meh
As did most of I5 probably
Yep Must be hard battling against soroses ill gotten billions backing remain
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
The dirty money went to brexit though, yeah? The untraced stuff...'dark money'.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
When I see that phrase I cannot help but think of shit.
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
It's bollocks. They don't have the type of storage facilities required. It has to be population size, yeah?
They're basically announcing a massive budget overspend and giving the money to private companies in the soon-to-be-defined sector.
(did someone mention hedge funds earlier?)
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
Some targetted Leave ads have been released by Facebook (with the campaigners' permission I gather as they say one group Veterans for Brexit refused to allow theirs to be seen):
Targeted pro-Brexit Facebook ads revealed
It's a bit off topic here. Sorry. . . Interesting. I use an adblocker so I don't know if I'd have seen these (I don't use Facebook any more but I did at the time of the referendum) even if I'd have been targetted. I have a vague recollection of the "polar bears" one being shared as a WTF jokey thing maybe. . .
The cuppa one...?!?!
The football one, well, that's quite well known. Interesting how few of them are explicitly branded - perhaps that is made clear when you click the button and presumably go to a Leave website or Facebook page?
I haven't seen any Remain ones. . .
Shared for interest really.
Targeted pro-Brexit Facebook ads revealed
It's a bit off topic here. Sorry. . . Interesting. I use an adblocker so I don't know if I'd have seen these (I don't use Facebook any more but I did at the time of the referendum) even if I'd have been targetted. I have a vague recollection of the "polar bears" one being shared as a WTF jokey thing maybe. . .
The cuppa one...?!?!
The football one, well, that's quite well known. Interesting how few of them are explicitly branded - perhaps that is made clear when you click the button and presumably go to a Leave website or Facebook page?
I haven't seen any Remain ones. . .
Shared for interest really.
andysays
Love and solidarity
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
It says he "tore them up" in the report I read. How rude!
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
A comment on a BBC story on the negotiations:
"Here’s the best negotiating strategy:
UK: “We’re leaving. No payments, no rights, no obligations, period. But we’d like free mutual trade, if you want it. Win-win, or nothing.”
EU: “But that’s not acceptable, blah blah blah...”
Click. Beeeeeee...
EU: “Hello? Hello? Sorry, we meant ... hello?”
... beeeee ...
EU: “Oh no, we’ve blown it. Quick, call them back.”
Beep, beep..."
And that seems quite a common belief - thanks I think to Julia Hartley Brewer, who said pretty much exactly that on a video a while ago.
"Here’s the best negotiating strategy:
UK: “We’re leaving. No payments, no rights, no obligations, period. But we’d like free mutual trade, if you want it. Win-win, or nothing.”
EU: “But that’s not acceptable, blah blah blah...”
Click. Beeeeeee...
EU: “Hello? Hello? Sorry, we meant ... hello?”
... beeeee ...
EU: “Oh no, we’ve blown it. Quick, call them back.”
Beep, beep..."
And that seems quite a common belief - thanks I think to Julia Hartley Brewer, who said pretty much exactly that on a video a while ago.
Supine
Newt Member
It's almost like our shower are required to sort out the thing they wanted!
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
Does anyone remember a year or so ago when the tories were saying of course they were doing trade negotiations they just couldn't tell anyone about them or it would weaken their position?
Probably were...just not for the UK.
Someone mentioned hedge funds?
Some people are going to get very rich if this continues...and that capital has to come from someplace.
Probably were...just not for the UK.
Someone mentioned hedge funds?
Some people are going to get very rich if this continues...and that capital has to come from someplace.
Balbi
Hey, Dean Yager!
They're utterly fucking mad, all of this is utter fucking lunacy.
May's spent weeks fighting her own party, lost her Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary, over an agreement she managed to strike with her own party which was instantly dismissed by the E.U. And this is like the fifth time it's happened, where the Tories spend more time shifting their negotiating strategy and finally agreeing on something - but forgetting the E.U isn't interested in the division within the party, they're trying to negotiate the fucking thing the fucking referendum was about.
In the two years since the referendum, they've achieved almost precisely fuck all on the important issues of trade, borders etc and are still clinging desperately, like nuggets of shite to arse hair, to the hope that the UK public will blame the European Union for, er, patiently waiting for us to sort our shit out and engage in negotiations.
May's spent weeks fighting her own party, lost her Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary, over an agreement she managed to strike with her own party which was instantly dismissed by the E.U. And this is like the fifth time it's happened, where the Tories spend more time shifting their negotiating strategy and finally agreeing on something - but forgetting the E.U isn't interested in the division within the party, they're trying to negotiate the fucking thing the fucking referendum was about.
In the two years since the referendum, they've achieved almost precisely fuck all on the important issues of trade, borders etc and are still clinging desperately, like nuggets of shite to arse hair, to the hope that the UK public will blame the European Union for, er, patiently waiting for us to sort our shit out and engage in negotiations.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
utterly delusional. Haven't they noticed that no a single member of the EU27 has tried to put any pressure on Barnier to soften the EU's stance?
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