Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[butchersapron]

In practice, could the EU really stop a determined UK renationalising its rail or finding a way of giving state aid, for example?

Yes.

 

[butchersapron]

Could the EU really impose it's shit on Greece/Spain/Ireland/Portugal/all new entrants? Yes.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

In practice, could the EU really stop a determined UK renationalising its rail or finding a way of giving state aid, for example?

Aye, if the commission complains that the UK is hampering free movement of capital with an unfair/non-competitive state monopoly, ECJ has ruled against such things in the past. It's all outlined in the fourth railway package.

 

[kabbes]

Could the EU really impose it's shit on Greece/Spain/Ireland/Portugal/all new entrants? Yes.

Of course, because they had those countries over a barrel. But what are they going to do to the UK if we nationalised and just told the EU to get to fuck? Throw us out?

 

[butchersapron]

In practice, could the EU really stop a determined UK renationalising its rail or finding a way of giving state aid, for example?

If you mean would a left-led govt give in to them - maybe not - but as is built into the plans, each crisis - which this would kick off - is designed to prepare for a move to further integration as a solution to this temporary crisis vs the final aim.

 

[kabbes]

If you mean would a left-led govt give in to them - maybe not - but as is built into the plans, each crisis - which this would kick off - is designed to prepare for a move to further integration as a solution to this temporary crisis vs the final aim.

Oh yeah, for sure. It’s a capitalist club built to buttress capitalist governments. But there’s nothing insurmountable if we had the kind of determined socialist government that we’d need to have anyway to implement proper change.

I dunno. The EU is a barrier to socialism. I’m not convinced it’s anywhere near the top of the list, though. I’ve no love for it and happy enough for us to leave. But I’m not going to go crazy over it either way.

 

[butchersapron]

Of course, because they had those countries over a barrel. But what are they going to do to the UK if we nationalised and just told the EU to get to fuck? Throw us out?

Bit late now but they would use the full existing ecj judgements against us and if we didn't back down the penalties this entails would kick in. That would cause a crisis - one welcomed by the eu as it would represent the option to move further with its not yet fully functioning plans of further liberalisation etc - the meeting of which would iron out any merely political problems like this.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh yeah, for sure. It’s a capitalist club built to buttress capitalist governments. But there’s nothing insurmountable if we had the kind of determined socialist government that we’d need to have anyway to implement proper change.

I dunno. The EU is a barrier to socialism. I’m not convinced it’s anywhere near the top of the list, though. I’ve no love for it and happy enough for us to leave. But I’m not going to go crazy over it either way.

The EU showed it exists in Greece - it shows it exists in ireland, spain and Portugal - it spends millions every day making sure those on the frontiers of fortress europe knows that it exists - a challenge to the very foundations of its existence, that is, neoliberalism - you can be damn sure they'll fight tooth and nail by every means to stop it. Check the voluminous record of court cases they have fought over every single step of anything like this over country to country (edit: with your money btw)

 

[kabbes]

Bit late now but they would use the full existing ecj judgements against us and if we didn't back down the penalties this entails would kick in. That would cause a crisis - one welcomed by the eu as it would represent the option to move further with its not yet fully functioning plans of further liberalisation etc - the meeting of which would iron out any merely political problems like this.

Well, that does sound pretty heavy. But I have to weigh that scenario on the one hand with philosophical thinking we’re all racists on the other.

 

[philosophical]

Surely what the EU can or can't do now is irrelevant to the UK, that ship has sailed and brexiteers won. There are more pressing matters for the UK to deal with as a result, especially what happens on the land border in Ireland, and of course Gibraltar in one year or two and a half years time.

 

[butchersapron]

He's remembered little brave gib now. This will take some time.

 

[philosophical]

This has a clip from the boss of the World Trade Organisation talking about the Irish border.

Damon Evans : "WTO boss on #HardTalk: Irish border. …" - Tweet

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Surely what the EU can or can't do now is irrelevant to the UK, that ship has sailed and brexiteers won. There are more pressing matters for the UK to deal with as a result, especially what happens on the land border in Ireland, and of course Gibraltar in one year or two and a half years time.

You don't give a fuck what happens on the land border with Ireland. It's a performance. Do you think anyone is buying it?

 

[butchersapron]

This has a clip from the boss of the World Trade Organisation talking about the Irish border.

Damon Evans : "WTO boss on #HardTalk: Irish border. …" - Tweet

Marv. Is it from at least 6 years ago?

 

[philosophical]

You don't give a fuck what happens on the land border with Ireland. It's a performance. Do you think anyone is buying it?

I have no idea who is or isn't buying whatever.
I am intrigued as to how you know what I 'give a fuck' about seeing as how we've never met, I suggest it is pure guesswork on your part, and you are wrong anyway.

 

[philosophical]

Marv. Is it from at least 6 years ago?

No.
Within the last week.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Could the EU really impose it's shit on Greece/Spain/Ireland/Portugal/all new entrants? Yes.

The four named countries are in the Eurozone though. I doubt the UK is constrained in the same way.

 

[butchersapron]

The four named countries are in the Eurozone though. I doubt the UK is constrained in the same way.

Have a look on the link i put up - nothing to do with eurozone - all to do with stuff we signed up and now part of the constitution.

 

[StigoftheDig]

Didn't we nationalise banks during the banking crisis?

That's a genuine question, because I'm looking at stuff now - including Butcher's link - and finding support for both sides of the argument, including one supposed "legal test" of the Labour 2017 manifesto that said it was all fine. (I'm sure you can find a legal opinion saying the opposite.)

And, back to the Irish border. Those are all workable plans, and they're exactly what Mrs May has ruled out on a "red-line" basis as THINGS SHE WILL NOT ALLOW! It's that more than anything - and there are lots of other things - that make me think this government isn't really negotiating in good faith.

 

[Raheem]

Didn't we nationalise banks during the banking crisis?

I think we may have moved on from trying to make out that EU rules prevent nationalisations, to arguing that they would prevent the creation of something identical to British Rail. I'm not sure if this is true, or how much is the right amount in terms of caring about it, but it's a much less ridiculous proposition.

 

[StigoftheDig]

Ah, OK, sorry.

 

[pocketscience]

Surely if the EU wouldn't try to stop a rail natuonalisation, you'd need be asking yourself why the fuck the citizens of europe have been paying a fortune for an army of Eurocrats in Brussels to develop tomes of ineffective directives and legislation to do exactly that.
All while their colleagues have been enforcing austerity in the poorest parts of the continent.

if there's an EU version of the Trade Descriptions Act they need to have themselves nicked for using the word union in their name.

 

[teuchter]

if there's an EU version of the Trade Descriptions Act they we need to have themselves ourselves nicked for using the word union in their our name.

 

[Raheem]

Surely if the EU wouldn't try to stop a rail natuonalisation, you'd need be asking yourself why the fuck the citizens of europe have been paying a fortune for an army of Eurocrats in Brussels to develop tomes of ineffective directives and legislation to do exactly that.

Before we ask why, we should probably ask if.

 

[butchersapron]

Surely if the EU wouldn't try to stop a rail natuonalisation, you'd need be asking yourself why the fuck the citizens of europe have been paying a fortune for an army of Eurocrats in Brussels to develop tomes of ineffective directives and legislation to do exactly that.
All while their colleagues have been enforcing austerity in the poorest parts of the continent.

if there's an EU version of the Trade Descriptions Act they need to have themselves nicked for using the word union in their name.

The whole job is a lie. They're open about it. I'll add them things i said on the eu reading list and also Europe Didn't Work Why We Left and How to Get the Best from Brexit tmw (first and last chapters need to read)

(i'll add a link to the book in a bit)

 

[teuchter]

To be honest, I'm pretty neutral as to whether Brexit happens or not. Although the country has gone fucking bonkers over it, I don't honestly think the question of whether or not we are in the EU ranks even in the top 20 things we actually need to worry about. The world moves on either way, and it can do so under a range of political philosophies either way. Exit the EU, don't exit the EU -- it's not the deciding factor in how we will treat inequality, health, care or any other aspect of human dignity. We can make those decisions whether in or out of the EU.

To some extent, or perhaps to an increasing extent, I agree. Whether we're in or out isn't a deciding factor in those things. But if you're neutral in that way - the benefits of being in or out aren't clear one way or the other - then the cost of making the change surely becomes the significant factor in deciding whether we should leave. There's going to be a big cost in terms of general hassle, and time spent doing, basically admin type stuff that could be spent doing more useful stuff. And all the "perfectly workable" solutions you describe have a cost for at least some people in Ireland. The Irish border thing can't be solved without creating a mess of some kind. So that's why I can't dismiss it as a triviality. Of course, for people who believe there's a great benefit for the people of Britain in leaving the EU, then it can be dismissed as just an unfortunate but necessary side effect.

 

[teuchter]

Before we ask why, we should probably ask if.

yes.

 

[WJ90]

Yes.

Article 50 has been triggered, we're half way into the process; both main parties support the concept of leaving the European Union; there's no overwhelming public desire to reverse the Brexit etc; etc.

 

[kabbes]

To some extent, or perhaps to an increasing extent, I agree. Whether we're in or out isn't a deciding factor in those things. But if you're neutral in that way - the benefits of being in or out aren't clear one way or the other - then the cost of making the change surely becomes the significant factor in deciding whether we should leave. There's going to be a big cost in terms of general hassle, and time spent doing, basically admin type stuff that could be spent doing more useful stuff. And all the "perfectly workable" solutions you describe have a cost for at least some people in Ireland. The Irish border thing can't be solved without creating a mess of some kind. So that's why I can't dismiss it as a triviality. Of course, for people who believe there's a great benefit for the people of Britain in leaving the EU, then it can be dismissed as just an unfortunate but necessary side effect.

Does it matter whether I agree or not? The vote was to leave. Subverting directly asked democratic decisions is something with downstream consequences at least as great as losing a few points of GDP.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Does it matter whether I agree or not? The vote was to leave. Subverting directly asked democratic decisions is something with downstream consequences at least as great as losing a few points of GDP.

This x 1000. Of course many are David-Cameron-confident that a further year of project fear bullying and screaming about doomsday scenarios has been sufficient and that most of us are ready to #thinkagain. They've not learned much from all this it seems.