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Hong Kong protest

how will central command react to this ?

eta- How will Xi respond ? hes at a crossroads here- either Mao style or a pramatic Deng path - What does concern me is that Xi is runnng the show more like an monarch for life than a talented beaurocrat serving his time. he a wily fucker but he cannot allow HK to decide its own future, at the very least for the message it will send to the other regions where movements for autonomy are curtailed with force.
 
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not-bono-ever said:
how will central command react to this ?

eta- How will Xi respond ? hes at a crossroads here- either Mao style or a pramatic Deng path - What does concern me is that Xi is runnng the show more like an monarch for life than a talented beaurocrat serving his time. he a wily fucker but he cannot allow HK to decide its own future, at the very least for the message it will send to the other regions where movements for autonomy are curtailed with force.
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This is a pretty big failure for Xi. The internal power struggle within the party is opaque to say the least, but after a series of major failures including One Belt One Road, a break down of relations with the US, a slowing economy, the Huawei debacle, and a general breakdown of relationships with the rest of the world, losing control of Hong Kong may remove any remaining doubt that Xi has been a disaster. There is no way that Xi could stay in after 2022 now. Daggers are going to being sharpened in Zhongnanhai, I'd imagine.

What is remarkable is the step down. They have released symbolically important prisoners (Joshua Wong), cancelled the extradition law, and Carrie Lam has apologised. A display of weakness like this is very unusual in Chinese politics in general, and by winning the protestors could inspire a movement in the mainland, particularly in neighbouring Guangdong province.

Also what is interesting is the step down seems to have come after the US drafted the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. The million march last week was ignored, this law was drafted, Carrie Lam met with Central Government, and then the act was shelved and concessions were made. The act is below:

Commissioners Reintroduce The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act | Congressional-Executive Commission on China

The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act would:

Require the Secretary of State to issue an annual certification of Hong Kong’s autonomy to justify special treatment afforded to Hong Kong by the U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992.
Require the President to identify persons responsible for the abductions of Hong Kong booksellers and journalists and those complicit in suppressing basic freedoms in Hong Kong, including those complicit in the rendition of individuals, in connection to their exercise of internationally recognized rights, to mainland China for detention or trial, and to freeze their U.S.-based assets and deny them entry into the United States.
Require the President to issue a strategy to protect U.S. citizens and businesses from the risks posed by a revised Fugitive Offenders Ordinance, including by determining whether to revise the U.S.-Hong Kong extradition agreement and the State Department’s travel advisory for Hong Kong.
Require the Secretary of Commerce to issue an annual report assessing whether the government of Hong Kong is adequately enforcing both U.S. export regulations regarding sensitive dual-use items and U.S. and U.N. sanctions, particularly regarding Iran and North Korea.
Make clear that visa applicants shall not be denied visas on the basis of the applicant’s arrest, detention or other adverse government action taken as a result of their participation in the nonviolent protest activities related to pro-democracy advocacy, human rights, or the rule of law in Hong Kong.
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Now, given half the Chinese Communist Party elite have family with green cards, and real estate as well as other assets all in the US, this law is essentially threatening their ill gotten fortunes that they've squirrelled away. The net worth of the 153 members of China's National Peoples Congress reportedly amounts to USD 650billion, (so on average 4billion each) and much of this is held in offshore accounts as exposed by the Panama Papers and a lot of it is tied up ultimately in US real estate.

Consider that Xi Jinping's daughter lives in the US, and most of the top leaders have family living luxurious lifestyles in Vancouver, Melbourne, London, Paris, California... The possibility of the US freezing their assets would mean they lose the family fortune so their useless spoiled offspring will no longer be able to live the high life. I wonder to what extent this has played a role in them backing down.

I think it is a huge factor, and also a huge miscalculation, because they have merely emboldened the protestors to demand the resignation of Carrie Lam, and ultimately they will go back to the demands of the Umbrella Movement in 2014 and demand an end to Beijing screening candidates and also to elect candidates. I don't think Beijing will accept this, but they also daren't send in the tanks as the economy can't take any further global backlash. However, the Central Government live in a fantasy world of their own creation to quite a large extent due to the echo chamber effect created by censorship, and there is a risk that they might convince themselves they need a show of force.

Very interesting times indeed. Hard to predict where this is going.
 
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The protesters have finally broken into, and now occupied the main chamber in the parliament building.

Protesters have forced their way into Hong Kong's legislature, after besieging the building for hours.

Dozens of demonstrators broke through the glass of the Legislative Council (LegCo) building, while a large crowd observed the unrest from outside.

Hundreds crowded the building's lobby, spray-painting messages on the walls and waving to the crowd outside from upstairs windows.
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Hong Kong protesters storm government building

I fear that this will not end well. :(
 
There's some suggestions it's a trap, hence the Hong Kong police melting away to allow the protesters to take over the building.

  • It has been suggested that this inaction from the police was a trap, aimed at swinging public sentiment against the protest movement with the help of violent and destructive scenes
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James Griffiths from CNN International says there will be a public backlash and quotes the vice-chair of the democratic Labour party Fernando Cheung, who describes the latest events as a “trap” set by the government for the protesters.
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Hong Kong protesters graffiti walls after storming government building – live
 
I notice that the OP hasn't been here on Urban since they started this thread.

Hope you're OK Danika and please let us know how things are going.
 
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