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Historic defeat of Fianna Fail

Joe Higgins, Socialist Party / ULA elected in Dublin West.
Seamus Healy, Workers and Unemployed Action Group / ULA elected in Tipperary South
Clare Daly, Socialist Party / ULA almost at the quota and certain to be elected in Dublin North.
Joan Collins, People Before Profit / ULA likely to win according to tallies in Dublin South Central, but that count is veeeery slooooow.
Richard Boyd Barrett, PBP / ULA is in a scrap for the last seat in Dun Laoghaire with Ivana Bacik. Flip of a coin stuff.
Mick Barry, SP / ULA, polled very strongly in Cork North Central but isn't going to win a seat.

Other ULA candidates with over 5% are Gino Kenny (PBP Dublin Mid West), Mick Murphy (SP Dublin South West), Declan Bree (Sligo Independent Socialists, Sligo).

Greens look likely to be wiped out entirely. Sinn Fein will make big gains, up from four seats at the last election (five after a byelection) to more than ten. Their vote is up about 3% to circa 10%. Fine Gael and Labour make big gains and will be the government. Fianna Fail taking a joyous kicking.
 
Idris2002 said:
Now someone on Cedar Loung (a Millie) says IB hasn't conceded, just said it will be hard to close the gap.
Click to expand...

Agreed RTE twitter feed seems a little odd. I think the gap is far too close, and I suspect Hanafin/Cuffe transfers would favour Bacik over Barret.
 
Nigel Irritable said:
Joe Higgins, Socialist Party / ULA elected in Dublin West.
Seamus Healy, Workers and Unemployed Action Group / ULA elected in Tipperary South
Clare Daly, Socialist Party / ULA almost at the quota and certain to be elected in Dublin North.
Joan Collins, People Before Profit / ULA likely to win according to tallies in Dublin South Central, but that count is veeeery slooooow.
Richard Boyd Barrett, PBP / ULA is in a scrap for the last seat in Dun Laoghaire with Ivana Bacik. Flip of a coin stuff.
Mick Barry, SP / ULA, polled very strongly in Cork North Central but isn't going to win a seat.

Other ULA candidates with over 5% are Gino Kenny (PBP Dublin Mid West), Mick Murphy (SP Dublin South West), Declan Bree (Sligo Independent Socialists, Sligo).

Greens look likely to be wiped out entirely. Sinn Fein will make big gains, up from four seats at the last election (five after a byelection) to more than ten. Their vote is up about 3% to circa 10%. Fine Gael and Labour make big gains and will be the government. Fianna Fail taking a joyous kicking.
Click to expand...


As Iguana pointed out on another forum, With FG/labour in power and the opposition being FF and SF, the Irish Parliament is once again exactly split among pro and anti treaty lines.
 
Bacik or Barrett it still could even go to Hanafin.



Here she is justifying the 750 million bondholder giveaway a few days ago.

Whatever our objections to Barrett or Bacik, either one would be better than that odious bitch.
 
8den said:
Agreed RTE twitter feed seems a little odd. I think the gap is far too close, and I suspect Hanafin/Cuffe transfers would favour Bacik over Barret.
Click to expand...

Boyd Barrett is 153 votes ahead of Bacik after Green/FF transfers. They will now transfer FG surplus, which might go slightly more Bacik than Boyd Barrett but probably not enough. Bacik likely to be eliminated. Question then is whether Bacik transfer will give Boyd Barrett about 400 more than go to Hanafin. My bets on Boyd Barrett just scraping it on final count.
 
Hanafin pulled 461 votes ahead of RBB. Bacik to be eliminated. I think it's a foregone conclusion that RBB will get 462 votes more than Hanafin from Bacik's 7260.
 
Fisher_Gate said:
Boyd Barrett is 153 votes ahead of Bacik after Green/FF transfers. They will now transfer FG surplus, which might go slightly more Bacik than Boyd Barrett but probably not enough. Bacik likely to be eliminated. Question then is whether Bacik transfer will give Boyd Barrett about 400 more than go to Hanafin. My bets on Boyd Barrett just scraping it on final count.
Click to expand...

RTE 1 just confirmed that analysis. Boyd Barrett now favourite for seat.
 
Iguana said:
Hanafin pulled 461 votes ahead of RBB. Bacik to be eliminated. I think it's a foregone conclusion that RBB will get 462 votes more than Hanafin from Bacik's 7260.
Click to expand...

Hanafin was saying earlier on that she thought she could do well from Bacik transfers because she's a woman and because they actually have the same line on austerity. Both true, but I think FF are too toxic for transfers, and enough Labour voters will go with Boyd Barrett for him to win.
 
Yes, Boyd Barrett has gone from slight outsider to a reasonably strong favourite. However Labour are talking about calling a recount, which probably wouldn't change anything but would have the effect of delaying results for a very long time.

It's worth noting that Joan Collins (People Before Profit like Boyd Barrett, but unlike him not SWP) is in a very strong position according to the tallies, but still they are only tallies and you can never rest easy until you've seen the actual count results. Dublin South Central seem to have outsourced counting to the functionally innumerate. Still no sign of a first count result.
 
Labour calling for recount in Dun Laoghaire. As FG Barrett's surplus means counting 11,000 preferences, there's no chance of a result for hours.
 
Fisher_Gate said:
Hanafin was saying earlier on that she thought she could do well from Bacik transfers because she's a woman and because they actually have the same line on austerity. Both true, but I think FF are too toxic for transfers, and enough Labour voters will go with Boyd Barrett for him to win.
Click to expand...

Bacik is an arch-liberal, while Hanafin is a God-botherer. Amusingly, some of her more religious supporters are likely to be more appalled by Bacik than Boyd Barrett, just because they won't be as aware of Boyd Barrett's positions on social issues while Bacik is chiefly known for them.
 
Fisher_Gate said:
Labour calling for recount in Dun Laoghaire. As FG Barrett's surplus means counting 11,000 preferences, there's no chance of a result for hours.
Click to expand...

The recount will delay things for hours if its a full recount, rather than a recount of the most recent round. However, your second point is incorrect. Seanad elections work that way, but in Dail elections, the surplus distributed consists of randomly chosen ballots rather than a calculated proportion.
 
I dunno, I remember the recount over the Cork seat that could have gone to DL in 1992 taking days - or maybe there were multiple recounts.
 
Oh for fuck's sake, those Labour Party pricks have called a complete recount in Dun Laoghaire, not simply a recount of the most recent round. The count has been suspended until 9 tomorrow morning.
 
Fisher_Gate said:
Clare Daly elected. Joe Higgins about to be interviewed on RTE 1 Radio. http://www.rte.ie/radio1/
Click to expand...

Good. From here on out if I ever hear RTE or any other Irish "journalist" make along the lines of, "8 independents (includingjoehiggins)," I'm making an official complaint of political bias. Especially as even with no TDs they are still referring to the Green Party.
 
Iguana said:
Good. From here on out if I ever hear RTE or any other Irish "journalist" make along the lines of, "8 independents (includingjoehiggins)," I'm making an official complaint of political bias. Especially as even with no TDs they are still referring to the Green Party.
Click to expand...

Terrible interviewer - asked Joe if he wanted Ireland turned into Albania!
 
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