Greek elections

[8den]

Diamond I know a great dentist who moonlights as a podiatrist, if you need that foot in mouth thing looked at.

Does anyone know what the potential ramifications are for the wider eurozone if Greece does exit? Presumably a much more weakened and insecure Euro? Will Spain or Portugal consider opting out as well. Presumable a Greek exit will both strengthen the pound and the Tory Euro skeptics in the run up to the referendum?

 

[brogdale]

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in ARD television interview. “It won’t be able to destroy Europe. Europe is stable and Europe is standing together.”[/QUOTE]

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

They want debt relief, continued eurozone debt relief and no real consequences.

That is not realistic.

The austerity imposed so far has not achieved what the Troika predicted it would achieve, Greek GDP is 25% lower than it was before the financial crisis, and 1 in 4 Greeks are unable to find work. Given all these facts, please tell us how realistic it is for Greece's debts to be paid off in the time-frame proposed by the Troika.

 

[brogdale]

 

[ska invita]

I havent seen any polls on the referendum so next best place is oddschecher
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/will-greece-exit-the-eurozone-in-2015

now i get confused with fractional odds
but they have*
Vote yes for EU package: 2/5 with odd shortening
Vote no for EU package: 2/1 with odds drifting
*precise odds are changing all the time

Unless Ive read it wrong the bookies are increasingly going with the Greek people voting Yes for the package, right? And by some way... Can someone confirm?

Someone with Greek family was telling me today that because of 4 centuries of Turkish rule there is a cultural need amongst many Greek people to be 'within Europe' - seemingly at all costs..

 

[ska invita]

The telegraph are running an 'exclusive' that :

Greece has threatened to seek a court injunction against the EU institutions, both to block the country's expulsion from the euro and to halt asphyxiation of the banking system.
“The Greek government will make use of all our legal rights,” said the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis.
“We are taking advice and will certainly consider an injunction at the European Court of Justice. The EU treaties make no provision for euro exit and we refuse to accept it. Our membership is not negotiable,“ he told the Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...reatens-top-court-action-to-block-Grexit.html
[...]
Any request for an injunction against EU bodies at the European Court would be an unprecedented development, further complicating the crisis.

Greek officials said they are seriously considering suing the European Central Bank itself for freezing emergency liquidity for the Greek banks at €89bn. It turned down a request from Athens for a €6bn increase to keep pace with deposit flight.
This effectively pulls the plug on the Greek banking system. Syriza claims that this is a prima facie breach of the ECB’s legal duty to maintain financial stability. “How can they justify setting off a run on the Greek banking system?” said one official.

...no idea on the truth or power of that

 

[Diamond]

The telegraph are running an 'exclusive' that :

Greece has threatened to seek a court injunction against the EU institutions, both to block the country's expulsion from the euro and to halt asphyxiation of the banking system.
“The Greek government will make use of all our legal rights,” said the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis.
“We are taking advice and will certainly consider an injunction at the European Court of Justice. The EU treaties make no provision for euro exit and we refuse to accept it. Our membership is not negotiable,“ he told the Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...reatens-top-court-action-to-block-Grexit.html
[...]
Any request for an injunction against EU bodies at the European Court would be an unprecedented development, further complicating the crisis.

Greek officials said they are seriously considering suing the European Central Bank itself for freezing emergency liquidity for the Greek banks at €89bn. It turned down a request from Athens for a €6bn increase to keep pace with deposit flight.
This effectively pulls the plug on the Greek banking system. Syriza claims that this is a prima facie breach of the ECB’s legal duty to maintain financial stability. “How can they justify setting off a run on the Greek banking system?” said one official.

...no idea on the truth or power of that

Hmm... Like that's going to happen any time soon...

Another punt from Varoufakis.

 

[Roadkill]

Does anyone know what the potential ramifications are for the wider eurozone if Greece does exit? Presumably a much more weakened and insecure Euro? Will Spain or Portugal consider opting out as well. Presumable a Greek exit will both strengthen the pound and the Tory Euro skeptics in the run up to the referendum?

It's perhaps striking today how little speculation there's been about how far the fallout will go if Greece does leave, perhaps partly because there's been too much happening of immediate note, and perhaps also because some of it's been quite well rehearsed for the last five years or so. I can't see Portugal, Spain or Italy leaving voluntarily in the near future, but a 'Grexit' (is it only me who hates all the weird acronyms and portmanteau words that have come out of the crisis?!) could potentially open that option up - or, perhaps more worryingly, open the way to one or more of them being forced out if the financial markets turn seriously against them. We might see how serious a risk that is in the next few weeks: back in 2011/2 the main reason Papandreou was forced to abandon his referendum on the bail-out terms was that a 'no' vote and 'Grexit' might have unleashed real trouble for the rest of the GIIPS, whereas now the Euro establishment reckon they can contain it. Remains to be seen whether they're right and the 'firewalls' hold up: Portuguese, Spanish and Italian government bonds all spiked this morning and then dropped back. Not sure whether that signifies anything or not really on a day like today.

Of course, one reason why the Euro elite is so keen to stop Syriza in its tracks is that they don't want uppity voters in any of those countries getting the idea that they might be able to vote for an alternative to endless austerity too. My guess is they're especially concerned about Spain there. Again, whether anything comes of it probably depends more than anything on what happens in the next week or so.

Re. the UK, depends on what happens of course, but might make Cameron's attempt to renegotiate aspects of the UK's membership easier, or it might not. It could well bolster British Eurosceptics, but tbh I suspect some of them are secretly hoping that the Euro, and maybe the EU as a whole, will come apart and save them the trouble of campaigning to get out. The latter isn't at all likely, of course, but then when has reality ever troubled the Tory right?

In other words it's all maybes, don't knows and 'it depends' atm.

 

[gosub]

ECB is at its heart a political appointed court, tasked with ever closer union, only way they would win is if its its seen as The opportunity to push Germany towards full federalism.

 

[Spymaster]

Unless Ive read it wrong the bookies are increasingly going with the Greek people voting Yes for the package, right? And by some way... Can someone confirm?

Yes.

 

[ska invita]

Looks like they're staying then.

 

[gosub]

Blaming the ECB for capital flight while going can't sign won't pay, reminds me of when Jimmy Goldsmith threatened to burn down the bank he owned in France, little French woman bullied him back to sanity 'Non! Jimmy Non!'

 

[J Ed]

It will be a very confusing picture if the Greek people do give in to the intimidation and threats and vote yes. If we have resignations and new elections, then what? Syriza still polls very favourably. It would be absolutely absurd for them to be the ones to carry out the EU's austerity measures.

 

[J Ed]

It would be really great if just for once hope, or fuck it just hate against the real class enemy, would win over fear.

 

[ska invita]

It will be a very confusing picture if the Greek people do give in to the intimidation and threats and vote yes. If we have resignations and new elections, then what? Syriza still polls very favourably. It would be absolutely absurd for them to be the ones to carry out the EU's austerity measures.

yes - that does look like whats going to happen - though I cant see Syriza holding together after a yes vote....

yet another level of sadness to this whole sorry mess

 

[J Ed]

yes - that does look like whats going to happen - though I cant see Syriza holding together after a yes vote....

yet another level of sadness to this whole sorry mess

The ramifications for the wider European Left would also be terrible. Anyone to the right of Podemos in Spain will be able to point to Greece and say 'look, this is what you are letting yourself in for'.

 

[MochaSoul]

It would be absolutely absurd for them to be the ones to carry out the EU's austerity measures.

I don't think that's necessarily true. They call themselves "true democrats" so they should follow the will of the people. If they have that many qualms about the proposals, then the test of their claim will be on whether they resign or not.

 

[agricola]

It will be a very confusing picture if the Greek people do give in to the intimidation and threats and vote yes. If we have resignations and new elections, then what? Syriza still polls very favourably. It would be absolutely absurd for them to be the ones to carry out the EU's austerity measures.

Not really - in fact there isnt any other way in which the could survive and perform the EU's austerity measures apart from a "yes" referendum vote.

 

[ska invita]

I don't think that's necessarily true. They call themselves "true democrats" so they should follow the will of the people. If they have that many qualms about the proposals, then the test of their claim will be on whether they resign or not.

yes but Syriza is a coalition with many of its members already biting their knuckles in disgust that the leadership has gone as far it has to make a deal - the idea that they would then implement these 'red line' policies would be sure to create a rupture in the coalition. Hard to imagine anything other than an implosion, infighting and resignations.

 

[J Ed]

Not really - in fact there isnt any other way in which the could survive and perform the EU's austerity measures apart from a "yes" referendum vote.

I don't think it could come to that to be honest, no way can Syriza hold in those circumstances

 

[agricola]

I don't think it could come to that to be honest, no way can Syriza hold in those circumstances

After a "yes" referendum vote? That is the easy course of action for them to take; they would have more of a mandate than any Western government has had to impose this sort of thing in the past fifty years.

 

[Diamond]

One thing is for certain - if Greece leaves, it will not be pretty for the Greeks.

 

[gosub]

It's perhaps striking today how little speculation there's been about how far the fallout will go if Greece does leave, perhaps partly because there's been too much happening of immediate note, and perhaps also because some of it's been quite well rehearsed for the last five years or so. I can't see Portugal, Spain or Italy leaving voluntarily in the near future, but a 'Grexit' (is it only me who hates all the weird acronyms and portmanteau words that have come out of the crisis?!) could potentially open that option up - or, perhaps more worryingly, open the way to one or more of them being forced out if the financial markets turn seriously against them. We might see how serious a risk that is in the next few weeks: back in 2011/2 the main reason Papandreou was forced to abandon his referendum on the bail-out terms was that a 'no' vote and 'Grexit' might have unleashed real trouble for the rest of the GIIPS, whereas now the Euro establishment reckon they can contain it. Remains to be seen whether they're right and the 'firewalls' hold up: Portuguese, Spanish and Italian government bonds all spiked this morning and then dropped back. Not sure whether that signifies anything or not really on a day like today.

Of course, one reason why the Euro elite is so keen to stop Syriza in its tracks is that they don't want uppity voters in any of those countries getting the idea that they might be able to vote for an alternative to endless austerity too. My guess is they're especially concerned about Spain there. Again, whether anything comes of it probably depends more than anything on what happens in the next week or so.

Re. the UK, depends on what happens of course, but might make Cameron's attempt to renegotiate aspects of the UK's membership easier, or it might not. It could well bolster British Eurosceptics, but tbh I suspect some of them are secretly hoping that the Euro, and maybe the EU as a whole, will come apart and save them the trouble of campaigning to get out. The latter isn't at all likely, of course, but then when has reality ever troubled the
Clearl Tory right?

In other words it's all maybes, don't knows and 'it depends' atm.

Clearly some technocrat has done a spreadsheet that a default by 1.3% of the EUrozone will be a Weeble rather than a cascade, and there is more value in doing an Admiral Byng to Greece for need of an idea of moral hazard. ITN news at Ten interviewed NO supporters in Athens main square today who bought into NO still means EUro membership, so easy to sell Greek shonky salesman when the the default insurance bites in equally impoverished countries. Merkel I think will have it harder, the can kicking that got the insurance fund though, only got through in Germany by being theoretical money. Germany may, get dragged kicking and screaming towards full federalization, which will help build the case for UK's Associate Membership. Having pointed out that's where Cameron is headed over year before he even mentioned it, I would hope to have some credence when I say its the worst of all possible worlds .

 

[J Ed]

One thing is for certain - if Greece leaves, it will not be pretty for the Greeks.

How many more suicides are necessary for you to call the current situation 'not pretty' exactly? FFS do you know anything whatsoever or do you just mouth whatever platitude you've last heard some fellow dickhead mouth on the BBC?

 

[ska invita]

After a "yes" referendum vote? That is the easy course of action for them to take; they would have more of a mandate than any Western government has had to impose this sort of thing in the past fifty years.

but they dont want to agricola! none of their members want to, and many of their membership won't let it happen in their name
now if this was the labour party, that would be something else...theyd love the mandate, practice their frowns in the mirror and get on with it

 

[agricola]

but they dont want to agircola! none of their members want to, and many of their membership won't let it happen in their name
now if this was the labour party, that would be something else...theyd love the mandate, practice their frowns in the mirror and get on with it

Of course noone wants to do it! My point was if the "Yes" vote happens what are they going to do? It is a vote they called, they arranged, and they fought against. If the Greeks vote yes the choice for them is to stay in power and try to mitigate the worst aspects of it, or take a principled position, bite their own legs off and walk away from the trap that they put down and stepped in - whilst letting some random centrists carry it out.

 

[ska invita]

Of course noone wants to do it! My point was if the "Yes" vote happens what are they going to do? It is a vote they called, they arranged, and they fought against. If the Greeks vote yes the choice for them is to stay in power and try to mitigate the worst aspects of it, or take a principled position, bite their own legs off and walk away from the trap that they put down and stepped in - whilst letting some random centrists carry it out.

its a left coalition - they eat legs for breakfast
i follow your logic, i just cant see it happening

 

[MochaSoul]

The ramifications for the wider European Left would also be terrible.

I think the biggest problem of the European Left is that it's fractured, prone to infighting and full of people who "know better than anyone else". It doesn't follow on the footsteps of earlier movements like the civil rights movements in the US or the Indian revolts where people cradled each other as they "moved". It's not like the know-how is not there already and ready to be picked up and adapted to different cultures/mores.
So everyone outside the different movements switches off. I know I do. My experience of left wing movements is of bunches of people who are more than prepared to lecture people, quasi brainwash them and humiliate them when they say something iffy but not really open to mentoring newcomers (especially those who are eager but still learning about, well, everything really). That makes it difficult, in a world where the soundbite is monarch, for people to feel those movements are as relevant as ever and their part is important if only in going back home and disputing what mum, neighbour or co-worker spouts. Coupled with the realities of each and every person's life and the sense of powerlessness the corporate media does its best to foster et voilá. Everyone watches documentaries on everything from climate change to the nature of corporations and global finance. Everyone applauds and spews scorn at the pigs on the global animal farm but few actually see the point in organising against them because the beast is greater than ever and it won't allow dissent to be televised. It all rather reminds me of Hável's discourse on the power of the powerless but not in a nice way.

 

[CNT36]

So it's back to the ad hominems again, is it?

No substance, no argument, no evidence.

You have lazily tried to make some simplistically erroneous points and can't back them up so instead of getting involved in a more in depth debate you start casting about broad accusations and insinuations to hide your basic ignorance.

Please stop.

 

[J Ed]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-break-bail-out-referendum-polls-suggest.html

Most Greeks will vote "Yes" in this Sunday's referendum on whether to accept the terms of a bail-out deal from the eurozone, polls have indicated.
In a sign that the country's prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, may have misjudged the public mood, two separate polls conducted by Greek newspapers suggest that nearly 60 per cent of the public would vote Yes.

The polls were carried between Wednesday and Friday of last week, prior to Mr Tsipras's unexpected announcement on Saturday that he would put the matter to a popular vote.

But they suggest that most ordinary Greeks no longer share his appetite for further stand-offs with Europe over the terms of Greece's €240bn bail-out deal. Both polls were published on Sunday.

In the poll by Alco for the Proto Thema paper, 57 per cent said they believed Greece should make a deal, compared to 29 per cent against. A Kapa Research poll for To Vima newspaper found that 47.2 per cent in favour, compared to 33 per cent against and 18.4 per cent undecided.