Greek elections

[phildwyer]

I would love them to tell the EU to stuff themselves

No you wouldn't. You're a cringing coward.

I suspect the reality is that they're scared of a coup, or even an invasion, if they cancel their debts. That's the only thing they really have to fear. I trust they're currently and rapidly taking measures to prevent such eventualities.

 

[coley]

How's that going to happen then? Do they eat Euros or something?

You just believe what the capitalist media tells you. You believe in absurdities.

Oh stop being so silly,we have a capitalist system in place, it needs changing, most would agree with that.
However it won't happen overnight and it's unfair and unrealistic to expect the Greeks to suffer extreme hardship in order to rub the financial institutions nose in it.

 

[coley]

No you wouldn't. You're a cringing coward.

I suspect the reality is that they're scared of a coup, or even an invasion, if they cancel their debts. That's the only thing they really have to fear. I trust they're currently and rapidly taking measures to prevent such eventualities.

Yup that's me, covered in white feathers I am.

 

[phildwyer]

Yup that's me, covered in white feathers I am.

That's the impression you give on here, yes.

 

[coley]

That's the impression you give on here, yes.

Kind of you to say so

 

[phildwyer]

Oh stop being so silly,we have a capitalist system in place, it needs changing, most would agree with that.
However it won't happen overnight and it's unfair and unrealistic to expect the Greeks to suffer extreme hardship in order to rub the financial institutions nose in it.

But they won't suffer extreme hardship if they cancel their debts. It is having the debt that is causing the hardship they are currently suffering. That's why they (the people if not the government) want to cancel it.

It's not like there's no precedent for this. Castro did it under much more difficult circumstances.

Anyway Coley, I'm intrigued. What terrible, dreadful things do you think will happen to Greece if it cancels its debts?

 

[Greebo]

<snip>t's not like there's no precedent for this. Castro did it under much more difficult circumstances.

One example is hardly a reliable sample. I know you're more into the humanities, but you should know that much.

 

[coley]

But they won't suffer extreme hardship if they cancel their debts. It is having the debt that is causing the hardship they are currently suffering. That's why they (the people if not the government) want to cancel it.

It's not like there's no precedent for this. Castro did it under much more difficult circumstances.

Ok, they default where's the money going to come from to pay for the running of the country?
Oh aye, it would become an asset strippers wet dream,though I have no doubt Russia or China, possibly both, would offer to assist.

 

[phildwyer]

Ok, they default where's the money going to come from to pay for the running of the country?
Oh aye, it would become an asset strippers wet dream,though I have no doubt Russia or China, possibly both, would offer to assist.

Unless the asset strippers bring an army with them, they can be told to fuck off.

Plenty of people would still be willing to lend money to Greece, bad credit rules don't apply to sovereign nations in the same way as to individuals.

But their best bet is to hope that their cancellation of their debts would set off a chain reaction. I think that's exactly what would happen, starting with Spain.

In any case, continued austerity isn't an option, for them or for us.

 

[gosub]

Ok, they default where's the money going to come from to pay for the running of the country?
Oh aye, it would become an asset strippers wet dream,though I have no doubt Russia or China, possibly both, would offer to assist.

Russia ain't got much money at the mo, but the location is geographically useful, not so much for China as shipping goes round the Cape rather than through the Suez canal these days

 

[coley]

Unless the asset strippers bring an army with them, they can be told to fuck off.

Plenty of people would still be willing to lend money to Greece, bad credit rules don't apply to sovereign nations in the same way as to individuals.

But their best bet is to hope that their cancellation of their debts would set off a chain reaction. I think that's exactly what would happen, starting with Spain.

In any case, continued austerity isn't an option, for them or for us.[/QUOTE

Who are these"plenty of people"?

 

[coley]

Russia ain't got much money at the mo, but the location is geographically useful, not so much for China as shipping goes round the Cape rather than through the Suez canal these days

The way Putins behaving it's any opportunity to keep the pot bubbling as for China they were/are in the process of buying most of Greeces port facility IIRC

 

[butchersapron]

The way Putins behaving it's any opportunity to keep the pot bubbling as for China they were/are in the process of buying most of Greeces port facility IIRC

Syriza stopped that pronto.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Russia have plenty to think about these days outside the machinations of the Greek situation- they have a long neo beef with Greek neighbours Turkey going back to the Czars - and have a port in Syria to keep them busy. Given the history of western meddling in post war Greece, I cant see the Russians getting / being allowed to have any kind of foothold amidst the chaos

I am happy to take on board the idea of the greeks handing back the keys and walking away from their liabilities- after all, we are in a totes new paradigm with regard to the suppsoed rules of economics- anything could happen, so not too bothered about the degree of historical precedent.

fuck knows how the rest of the world would react, but there is enough cash slopping about for people to get involved with a post default greece

 

[newbie]

Reuters has the story:

One of the first decisions announced by the new government was stopping the planned sale of a 67% stake in the Piraeus Port Authority, agreed under its international bailout deal for which China’s Cosco Group and four other suitors had been shortlisted.

“The Cosco deal will be reviewed to the benefit of the Greek people,” Thodoris Dritsas, the deputy minister in charge of the shipping portfolio, told Reuters.


http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-tsiptas-live#block-54c8efa9e4b074fbabe7c2e8

 

[newbie]

this interview with a Piraeus docker, Syriza activist and trades unionist is well worth reading.

 

[butchersapron]

Russia have plenty to think about these days outside the machinations of the Greek situation- they have a long neo beef with Greek neighbours Turkey going back to the Czars - and have a port in Syria to keep them busy. Given the history of western meddling in post war Greece, I cant see the Russians getting / being allowed to have any kind of foothold amidst the chaos

I am happy to take on board the idea of the greeks handing back the keys and walking away from their liabilities- after all, we are in a totes new paradigm with regard to the suppsoed rules of economics- anything could happen, so not too bothered about the degree of historical precedent.

fuck knows how the rest of the world would react, but there is enough cash slopping about for people to get involved with a post default greece

Do you know nothing of CONTRACT LAW!!!!!

 

[Lo Siento.]

But they won't suffer extreme hardship if they cancel their debts. It is having the debt that is causing the hardship they are currently suffering. That's why they (the people if not the government) want to cancel it.

It's not like there's no precedent for this. Castro did it under much more difficult circumstances.

Anyway Coley, I'm intrigued. What terrible, dreadful things do you think will happen to Greece if it cancels its debts?

Well, when Argentina defaulted at the end of 2001 their poverty rates jumped from 38.3% (October 2001) to 57.5% (October 2002), with their extreme poverty rates going from 13.6% to 27.5% (October 2002). Whilst their poverty rates dropped thereafter they didn't recover to October 2001 levels until 2005.

Now, you could say that's a price worth paying in the long run in order re-assert economic sovereignty, you could also argue that such consequences could be avoided if Greece simultaneously adopted particular political and social policies at the same time as defaulting. But it's a pretty massive stretch to claim it's consequence free.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I am not a lawyer, but know of the various south american expeditions into default and the vulture funds who went all legal of them

 

[DotCommunist]

I'd also be surprised if we don't see another run on the banks in Greece next week.

If you had deposits in an Athens bank account denominated in Euros, would you keep them there given what has happened the past week?

You've been reeling around this thread with an ill concealed hardon at the thought of a democratically elected anti-austerity government being brought to heel by unelected forces of capital. You with your 'interesting'

why don't you take your law degree and your thesaurus away to the land of clue where you might pick up something useful to add to your stunning array of intellectual tools.

 

[coley]

Syriza stopped that pronto.

But will it stay stopped?

 

[phildwyer]

Well, when Argentina defaulted at the end of 2001 their poverty rates jumped from 38.3% (October 2001) to 57.5% (October 2002), with their extreme poverty rates going from 13.6% to 27.5% (October 2002). Whilst their poverty rates dropped thereafter they didn't recover to October 2001 levels until 2005.

Now, you could say that's a price worth paying in the long run in order re-assert economic sovereignty, you could also argue that such consequences could be avoided if Greece simultaneously adopted particular political and social policies at the same time as defaulting. But it's a pretty massive stretch to claim it's consequence free.

I think the Cuban model's more relevant that the Argentinian. As you suggest, there are things that people value more than wealth, and national sovereignty can often be one of them. So can social justice for that matter. Argentina didn't emphasize those aspects, Cuba did, and Greece will if they've got any sense.

Cuba paid a heavy price for their independence, and are still paying it today. But there are very few Cubans--in Cuba at least--who'd say it wasn't worth paying. The difference is that the Cubans could rely on the Soviet Union, but they paid a heavy price for that too, not least having to adopt Marxism-Leninism as their official ideology.

Then again, is the situation really so different today? The West is certainly not lacking for enemies who would jump at the chance of buggering up the EU.

In any case, the need for international solidarity is just as strong for Greece as it was for Cuba. I don't think the Greeks will be able to get out from under the troika alone. That's why the Spanish election is so vital. I suspect that Syriza have concluded the same thing, and are playing a waiting game...

 

[phildwyer]

Who are these"plenty of people"?

China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela.

 

[Diamond]

You've been reeling around this thread with an ill concealed hardon at the thought of a democratically elected anti-austerity government being brought to heel by unelected forces of capital. You with your 'interesting'

why don't you take your law degree and your thesaurus away to the land of clue where you might pick up something useful to add to your stunning array of intellectual tools.

Ad hominems aside, you do tangentially wander into interesting territory with your distinction between a "democratically elected anti-austerity government" and the "unelected forces of capital".

I'm not sure why you think Schauble, for instance, or the German government in general falls into the latter box in contra-distinction to the former.

That's rather the heart of the problem - we have a currency that is supranational, with some of the national areas that constitute its jurisdiction experiencing very different parts of the economic cycle and having very different ideas about how things should be taken forward.

This is really the heart of the Eurozone problem - nations have ceded an enormous amount of sovereignty for short-term gain (in the early part of the last decade) without acknowledging the possible risks that go with that.

The people in those nations are now starting to wake up to this by increasingly electing not so much nationalist as independent pro-sovereignty parties of both the right and the left.

There's nothing wrong with any of that and Greece is perfectly entitled to default and exit the euro but there are also a huge number of short-term risks involved and, yes, I do find them interesting because no-one knows quite what will happen. I've also done a fair bit of work on Eurozone exit and the roughly three different scenarios that might happen:

• First, Greece leaves and adopts a new Drachma - Eurozone hangs together as is.
• Second, Greece leaves and is shortly joined by the rest of the peripheral Eurozone states to form a Euro 2. The Northern European Eurozone states retain what has effectively become a Euro 1.
• Third, Greeze leaves, adopts a new Drachma - the rest of the Eurozone falls to pieces unleashing general centrifugal forces within the EU.

 

[Coolfonz]

Don't forget that millions of Argentinian workers lost the entirety of their savings in the wipeout. And its still hasn't finished, inflation is what? 30pc? More debt defaults. You can't eat national sovereignty.

 

[DotCommunist]

you've literally been drooling

 

[DotCommunist]

Don't forget that millions of Argentinian workers lost the entirety of their savings in the wipeout. And its still hasn't finished, inflation is what? 30pc? More debt defaults. You can't eat national sovereignty.

Hello mr worker do you want fuck all

-no that sounds bad, this is shitty enough for me as it stands

well what about another big sarnie made of fuck all

-WTF


see where this is going. Wank yourselves silly about the fiscal and procedural. If a government is democratically elected on the back of 'fuck this, wheres all our money going' then what. Gloat while they get ripped to shreds I suppose. Or accept what is happening, a neoliberal project falling apart at the seams.

or of course abandon all pretence of respecting the democracy of nation states and just hammer any electorate who dares put an alternative in place

 

[phildwyer]

If a government is democratically elected

It really shouldn't be ordered around by the walking personifications of Money.

What we're learning here is that finance-based capitalism and democracy are fundamentally incompatible.

 

[Diamond]

Well, when Argentina defaulted at the end of 2001 their poverty rates jumped from 38.3% (October 2001) to 57.5% (October 2002), with their extreme poverty rates going from 13.6% to 27.5% (October 2002). Whilst their poverty rates dropped thereafter they didn't recover to October 2001 levels until 2005.

Now, you could say that's a price worth paying in the long run in order re-assert economic sovereignty, you could also argue that such consequences could be avoided if Greece simultaneously adopted particular political and social policies at the same time as defaulting. But it's a pretty massive stretch to claim it's consequence free.

I happened to be in Argentina between roughly end of February 2002 to mid-May 2002 and saw the results of the default up close, in real life while working as an intern at the Buenos Aires Herald.

All Argentinian bank accounts were effectively frozen thanks to a run on the banks. The amounts that could be withdrawn were limited by the day.

Nonetheless the microcentro of Buenos Aires, effectively downtown, featured enormous queues around pretty much every bank as people tried to withdraw whatever value they had and exchange out of the peso and into, usually, the dollar.

There were instances of people self-immolating in protest that we reported on at the Buenos Aires Herald, as far as I can remember.

I used to walk to and from work through the microcentro on most days and remember that, when the currency was allowed to float free, you could see the dollar exchange rate, which was listed live outside most banks, change significantly between the morning ratio and the evening one.

I had budgeted for my time in Argentina on a fixed peso-dollar rate. By the time I left in May the currency had depreciated by around four times in the space of about three months.

 

[brogdale]

Mason has just said on C4 News that the Greeks have queued-up outside the head's office and handed in their homework as they were told to. Apparently, they have had it given back because they forgot a few things like numbers, underlining titles and having a cover, title page. It's got to be back in first thing tomorrow, so I hope their mums have turned the internet off.