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Global financial system implosion begins

petee said:
hey we found the problem with SVB

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Oh My, why no reference to their not having a Risk Manger for the last 9 months or having unwound ALL their interest rate hedges 2 years ago to save money? Also worth noting, Bernie Saunders predicted this years ago when Trump unwound the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, allowing lowering of Capital provisions - hardly an arch Capitalist, he was able to see how this was a near certainty. PLus, SVB was regulated as a "Community Bank" meaning that it was not Basel 3 compliant, as ALL UK and European banks - stupidity on a massive level - but of course being the US, Culture bollocks is the major whine. The USA needs to get grip, and we need to stop being their mini me copyists
 
All the usual bottom feeders and geriatric finance titans pointing the finger at the bank's failure being due to the organisation being too woke. Nice distraction from the rampant deregulation that happened under trump's watch that helped facilitate this latest shit show.
 
12 month context for the FTSE 100

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So at the moment, the impact has merely been to unwind half the increase seen since the lows of last October. If there really is a big contagion effect from the collapse of Credit Suisse, I imagine it will have a much bigger impact than that.
 
kabbes said:
12 month context for the FTSE 100

View attachment 366788

So at the moment, the impact has merely been to unwind half the increase seen since the lows of last October. If there really is a big contagion effect from the collapse of Credit Suisse, I imagine it will have a much bigger impact than that.
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Combine that with the inflationary effects on that same period, we are talking a real terms loss.
 
My old work pension had only just recovered from the 10% fall in 2022, it’s lost half of that already
 
Idaho said:
Combine that with the inflationary effects on that same period, we are talking a real terms loss.
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Not particularly. It’s a 3-4% increase in price plus a 3-4% dividend yield, for a total return in the region of 7%. Depending on your personal inflation, it’s kind of level. And probably better than whatever else you did with that money.

Thing is, it won’t stay as it is. It could collapse from here, it could rebound and reclaim its recent drop of 5-10%. That’s the big unknown.
 
kabbes said:
Not particularly. It’s a 3-4% increase in price plus a 3-4% dividend yield, for a total return in the region of 7%. Depending on your personal inflation, it’s kind of level. And probably better than whatever else you did with that money.

Thing is, it won’t stay as it is. It could collapse from here, it could rebound and reclaim its recent drop of 5-10%. That’s the big unknown.
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Your personal inflation is running at 7%? Presumably you don't pay for petrol, electric, gas, food, council tax, or..er... Anything!
 
Idaho said:
Your personal inflation is running at 7%? Presumably you don't pay for petrol, electric, gas, food, council tax, or..er... Anything!
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I hardly ever pay for petrol, my council tax has just gone up by about 5% and I have been eating out much less, so my food costs have actually gone down. My electric is more expensive, true, as is my LPG. But then again, I don’t spend all the income I receive, so I also have to factor that into the allowance. I have no idea what my personal inflation is, but 7% doesn’t seem like a bad guess.
 
Credit Suisse would be a major scalp -- Ihave a feeling though, that the investors who've refused to give them any more money are squeezing for something
 
Bingoman said:
What has happened to Credit Suisse to make it collapse
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Years of incompetant management, stupid decisions, involvement in products they didnt understand, etc - trying to pretend they were a "powerhouse" and should be playing with the big boys, in short, hubristic pursuit of "ranking" - pretty much the same idea that fucked Deutsche + Barclays, but they didnt even realise they were fucked till later than those guys. Expect Commerz, Unicredito to be the next under big time pressure
 
kabbes said:
I hardly ever pay for petrol, my council tax has just gone up by about 5% and I have been eating out much less, so my food costs have actually gone down. My electric is more expensive, true, as is my LPG. But then again, I don’t spend all the income I receive, so I also have to factor that into the allowance. I have no idea what my personal inflation is, but 7% doesn’t seem like a bad guess.
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I would guess our household inflation is more like 10-12% at a time when our income has halved and our outgoings have doubled (regardless of inflation). Fortunately I have money to cover all of this, but the vast majority of people don't and are really feeling it.
 
hipipol said:
Years of incompetant management, stupid decisions, involvement in products they didnt understand, etc - trying to pretend they were a "powerhouse" and should be playing with the big boys, in short, hubristic pursuit of "ranking" - pretty much the same idea that fucked Deutsche + Barclays, but they didnt even realise they were fucked till later than those guys. Expect Commerz, Unicredito to be the next under big time pressure
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all that probably true but CS is a bit special isn't it due to long string of absolutely massive scandals, one after another, over the last few years, leading to many billions being withdrawn by people who just preferred to put their money somewhere that wasn't constantly in the news for you know, helping torturers and being taken to court for fraud.
 
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bimble said:
all that probably true but CS is a bit special isn't it due to long string of absolutely massive scandals, one after another, over the last few years, leading to many billions being withdrawn by people who just preferred to put their money somewhere that wasn't constantly in the news for you know, helping torturers and being taken to court for fraud.
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Why wouldn't you trust in a bank which had the only banker convicted of anything about 2008. For extra giggles there's the Chairman's name
 
bimble said:
all that probably true but CS is a bit special isn't it due to long string of absolutely massive scandals, one after another, over the last few years, leading to many billions being withdrawn by people who just preferred to put their money somewhere that wasn't constantly in the news for you know, helping torturers and being taken to court for fraud.
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You imply that investors and depositors in Swiss banks give a toss about Moral Turpitude - really? ALL Swiss banks traded with the Nazis and took decades to return the assets of Jewish families slaughtered in the Concentration camps, denying the relatives their money back - not returned till the 90s or 2000s in some cases - a few mill to smaller scale mass murders caused very little complaint. It was the lack of returns/increasing risk that made tham pull out, to think otherwise is dangerously niave. Know you enemy bruv, only judge em human when you have concrete proof
 
Hmm ok bruv. Most depositors of the billions withdrawn recently didn’t get any returns at all though, that’s Swiss banks for you, secrecy instead of interest rates. I do know about the Swiss & the nazis thanks.
 
bimble said:
Hmm ok bruv. Most depositors of the billions withdrawn recently didn’t get any returns at all though, that’s Swiss banks for you, secrecy instead of interest rates. I do know about the Swiss & the nazis thanks.
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OK, you know? Then why post simple nonsense? Yes I did talk down to you, but then, evidence would suggest it was deserved as you seem unable to understand how these organisations work - if you knew about the history of Swiss banks and the Nazis, Jean Baptiste Bocassa, etc and any number of Dictators then why suggest moral outrage played any part in decisions about keeping money there? As for the most revent depositors getting no return - no that was the INVESTORS, who got fuck all or made a loss, the DEPOSITORS got v little but still some, unless the withdrew early from fixed term schemes
 
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