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Global financial system implosion begins

tldr
i just hope they lose their own money and not ours
Unless your Tech startup recieved a lot of wedge form VC backers lately, you're unlikely to be directly connected - but there is a contagion risk, more from the Silvergate collapse - the fed having taken SVB over, though it looks like lots of cash will be lost as they are only talking about Federal Deposit G'tee levels of support - max $250k per account - the rest they will try to recoup. In both cases neither back had ANY kind of hedge agianst interest rate rises, 1 year one from the Fed raising rates and saying they were going to raise em more. instead both had all deposits parked in US Govies bonds. Idiocy. I know they were bankers to Techies, but they should not have thought they were somehow vitual and thus not involved in the real world, so needed to make no provision. Goldmans/Citi/BOA etc would have written an Interest Rate swap for the full at risk capital for a few million - cheap concidering the losses now incurred. Hope they charge thes buggers with some serious incompetance related stuff
 
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Contagion - Barclays fell over 3.5 per cent in morning trading, while Natwest tumbled around three per cent, Lloyds Banking Group around 3.5 per cent and HSBC over five per cent. The FTSE 350 banking index is down around 4.1 per cent as of 2:15pm today. - thats from yest afty, no trading today - well no trades can be settled but orders can still be placed for Monday execution - expect further falls after the W/end - Wells Fargo will join em downwards if they have not resolved their issues by later today, when the claim the "glitch" will be resolved. The MBS problem for ALL US banks is more of a slowburner, but is also tied to interest rates which have caused a serious slowdown in housing starts and sales - most US mortages are on fixed rates for the duration so there should not be massive foreclosures, but as valuations drop, it will inhibit activity. More scary laffs on Monday
 
If I were the Fed, I’d be taking this as a warning sign that the markets can’t cope with the pace of change in base rates, and I need to halt the increases for a bit. They may have too much tunnel vision to see it, though.
 
2 quick points
re SVB
But 89% of the bank's $175 billion in deposits were uninsured as the end of 2022, according to the FDIC, and their fate remains to be determined.

The FDIC is racing to find another bank over the weekend that is willing to merge with Silicon Valley Bank, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity because the details are confidential. While the FDIC hopes to put together such a merger by Monday to safeguard unsecured deposits, no deal is certain, the sources added.
But 89% of the bank's $175 billion in deposits were uninsured as the end of 2022, according to the FDIC, and their fate remains to be determined.

The FDIC is racing to find another bank over the weekend that is willing to merge with Silicon Valley Bank, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity because the details are confidential. While the FDIC hopes to put together such a merger by Monday to safeguard unsecured deposits, no deal is certain, the sources added. Source Reuters

If I were the Fed, I’d be taking this as a warning sign that the markets can’t cope with the pace of change in base rates, and I need to halt the increases for a bit. They may have too much tunnel vision to see it, though.

Fed under less pressure to speed rate hikes as wage gains cool​

 
Re the problems with payroll - iirc , the US system primarily covers wages weekly as opposed to the usual European monthly setup. So yer looking at blips if possible liquidy stresses and downstream impact that can hit up quicker.
 
Even this isn't blatantly illegal, it's certainly cronyism.

CEO describes pulling money from bank hours before collapse: Alison Greenberg, CEO of Ruth Health, describes to CNN's Erin Burnett what it was like to urgently withdraw money from Silicon Valley Bank before it collapsed.



If you're a middle-class retiree who saved all their life, putting away a nest egg worth over $250,000, they're likely to lose much of it. I'm sure it's their fault for not having the proper connections. The US looks more corrupt and incompetent every day.
 
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SVB is mainly tech startups, not little old ladies.

Everyone was pulling money out of SVB as soon as they heard, apparently this was the quickest bank run in history and people's wages are now dependent on whether their CEO heard about the situation and pulled the company's funds before it collapsed.
 
Essentially, they hadnt noticed the value had dropped so much in Treasury Bonds they held they went from having bank capital of 18 billion to 1 billion in the last year as the Fed had cranked rates, reducing the Bonds value massively. Neither had they noticed tht they huge amounts in the longer term bonds meaning that they had to pay billions in early redemption fees, so their 1 bill became negative - for example of the notional $22.5 billion portfolio had it been held to term they sold on Thurs, they made a $1.8 billion loss so if the liquidated the whole lot of the 200 bil plus they had as collateral for the deposits, they would be 20+ BILLION short of the depositors funds and the bank itself would have zero capital!!!! Fucking idiots. Reuters reporting it was a call form Moodys, the ratings crew, on Wed that first alerted them to their impending insolvency - Moodys said, you underwater, we're gonna down grade you - sqeaky bum time caused the sudden sale, they had a committedment form a hedgey to take .5 bill of the share offering they planned to plug the gap, but were unable to secure the rest of the $1.8 bill they were touting overnight - few have that kind of instant cash, even in Hedgie land - it also seems they had not planned any of this, it was all shit the kecks and flail about after the Moodys call so were unable to present a coherent plan to potential investors. Jeffries are now offer the starups to buy their claim against SVB for uninsured deposits - ie the majority of clients - for 70c in the $ - 30 % haircut!!! - but thats the highest, many vulture funds offering 50 - 60c. In short total shambles of the management caused this, no hedges, do diversification, no risk management, no ALM (Asset and Liability Committee) just bundle all the wedge into Govies - all US - higher yields avail from $ denominated Supras - eg Japan bank for International Cooperation, backed by the Japanese Govt was paying 4.75% - so no FX risk and just as safe as the US ones they held, only paying 4% more. I found that out it 5 minutes, have their management been in a collective coma???? Equally, the regulators should have seen this, to me they look below minimum capital adequacy ratio Complete shit show with Fking bells on it
 
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Its seems they may have had their door damaged by irate punters ............A notice hangs on the door of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) located in San Francisco, California, U.S. March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Krystal Hu
 
Essentially, they hadnt noticed the value had dropped so much in Treasury Bonds they held they went from having bank capital of 18 billion to 1 billion in the last year as the Fed had cranked rates, reducing the Bonds value massively. Neither had they noticed tht they huge amounts in the longer term bonds meaning that they had to pay billions in early redemption fees, so their 1 bill became negative - for example of the notional $22.5 billion portfolio had it been held to term they sold on Thurs, they made a $1.8 billion loss so if the liquidated the whole lot of the 200 bil plus they had as collateral for the deposits, they would be 20+ BILLION short of the depositors funds and the bank itself would have zero capital!!!! Fucking idiots. Reuters reporting it was a call form Moodys, the ratings crew, on Wed that first alerted them to their impending insolvency - Moodys said, you underwater, we're gonna down grade you - sqeaky bum time caused the sudden sale, they had a committedment form a hedgey to take .5 bill of the share offering they planned to plug the gap, but were unable to secure the rest of the $1.8 bill they were touting overnight - few have that kind of instant cash, even in Hedgie land - it also seems they had not planned any of this, it was all shit the kecks and flail about after the Moodys call so were unable to present a coherent plan to potential investors. Jeffries are now offer the starups to buy their claim against SVB for uninsured deposits - ie the majority of clients - for 70c in the $ - 30 % haircut!!! - but thats the highest, many vulture funds offering 50 - 60c. In short total shambles of the management caused this, no hedges, do diversification, no risk management, no ALM (Asset and Liability Committee) just bundle all the wedge into Govies - all US - higher yields avail from $ denominated Supras - eg Japan bank for International Cooperation, backed by the Japanese Govt was paying 4.75% - so no FX risk and just as safe as the US ones they held, only paying 4% more. I found that out it 5 minutes, have their management been in a collective coma???? Equally, the regulators should have seen this, to me they look below minimum capital adequacy ratio Complete shit show with Fking bells on it
Isn't hedging used to protect against such eventualities?
 
US or UK? UK regulation already requires assets to be measured at market value
Depends. Banks have to for "Regulatory Capital", ie the minimum level of funds needed to meet their capital adequacy requirements - which should mean they do not have to sell securities at a lower than face value, just to pay any depositors who need their cash - often referred to to as Tier one capital - like brown fat releases energy faster than the rest of our blubber, but longer term energy stays stored. Its really basic stuff
 
Looks like SVB UK will be liquidated tonight

"

Silicon Valley Bank UK Update​

We are announcing that following conversations with the Prudential Regulation Authority there is an intention, barring any intervening event, to put Silicon Valley Bank UK Limited into insolvency from Sunday evening. We are determined to work on the behalf of our clients and are proud of our employees in their engagement with you. If clients have any questions please get in touch with us and we will try our best to answer any and all of your queries."
 
Al Jazeera is reporting Signature Bank of New York has been closed down.
Apparently Signature Bank specialises in "crypto"
 
Faisal Islam of BBC 2 Newsnight posted a Twitter thread on Silicon Valley Bank about 12 noon today (12th March).
I thought this response to Faisal quite interesting
 
HSBC UK have bought UK arm of SVB - v quick, more proof it was v poor management at SVB that was at fault, HSBC are a rather conservative firm and would not stump up cash and take on liabilties if the underlying business was crap
 
FDIC taking charge at Signature Bank. the one time keeper of Trumps private acct - they dropped him after Jan 6 - g'teeing all deposits. An East Coast private bank initially, it had morphed into a Crypto friendly commercial bank , ie classic banking functions not an investment firm, with 25% of deposits from Crypto businesses - prob not just Rates causing probs for them then. Banks generally taking hit re valuations in the US - First Republic Bank shares halved in price on pre market opening trades - ie aggregated orders BEFORE the NSE opens in a few mins - maybe an hr, cant figure out the timezone stuff, while in other news, Cred Suisse woes continues, shares dropped 12% in Zurich this morning - already in a mess over years of mad decisions, this current wave has not helped much. More after the Bell
 
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