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Global financial system implosion begins

Large-scale complex societies have built subjectivity that is qualitatively and quantitatively different to that of small-scale societies, all because you cannot engage in exchange with a stranger without needing to trust that they will follow through. This isn’t just me saying it, it’s well established through research. For instance Henrich et al (2010) traveled all across the world, testing over 2000 people in communities ranging from US cities to tiny indigenous African settlements, and identified that with market integration and large community sizes comes the subjective expectation/assumption of fairness in interaction with a stranger and the willingness to expend your own resources to punish strangers who are not fair with other strangers. That subjectivity is built as a result of living in a system that requires a sense of fairness with strangers — in small communities, you simply rely on reputation with people that know you for reciprocity of results. If you break down that requirement for trust, you break the very subjective requirement that binds large societies together. A society that is built on smart contracts is not a community at all. To quote Zuboff (2015):

From Locke to Durkheim, the contract and the rule of law that supports it have been understood as derived from the social and the trust and organic solidarity of which the social is an effect (Durkheim, 1964: 215; Locke, 2010: 112-115, 339). For Weber, 'the most essential feature of modern substantive law, especially private law is the greatly increased significance of legal transactions , particularly contracts , as a source of claims guaranteed by legal coercion ... one can ... designate the contemporary type of society ... as a "contractual" one' (1978: 669).

As Hannah Arendt suggests, 'the great variety of contract theories since the Romans attests to the fact that the power of making promises has occupied the center of political thought over the centuries.' Most vivid is the operation of the contract as it enhances the mastery of individuals and the resilience of society. These goods derive precisely from the unpredictability 'which the act of making promises at least partially dispels ...' For Arendt, human fallibility in the execution of contracts is the price of freedom. The impossibility of perfect control within a community of equals is the consequence of 'plurality and reality ... the joy of inhabiting together with others a world whose reality is guaranteed for each by the presence of all.' Arendt insists that 'the force of mutual promise or contract' is the only alternative 'to a mastery which relies on domination of one's self and rule over others; it corresponds exactly to the existence of freedom which was given under the condition of non-sovereignty' (1998: 244).

In contrast to Arendt, Varian's vision of a computer-mediated world strikes me as an arid wasteland - not a community of equals bound through laws in the inevitable and ultimately fruitful human struggle with uncertainty. In this futurescape, the human community has already failed. It is a place adapted to the normalization of chaos and terror where the last vestiges of trust have long since withered and died. Human replenishment from the failures and triumphs of asserting predictability and exercising over will in the face of natural uncertainty gives way to the blankness of perpetual compliance. Rather than enabling new contractual forms, these arrangements describe the rise of a new universal architecture existing somewhere between nature and God that I christen Big Other . It is a ubiquitous networked institutional regime that records, modifies, and commodifies everyday experience from toasters to bodies, communication to thought, all with a view to establishing new pathways to monetization and profit. Big Other is the sovereign power of a near future that annihilates the freedom achieved by the rule of law. It is a new regime of independent and independently controlled facts that supplants the need for contracts, governance, and the dynamism of a market democracy. Big Other is the 21st-century incarnation of the electronic text that aspires to encompass and reveal the comprehensive immanent facts of market, social, physical, and biological behaviors. The institutional processes that constitute the architecture of Big Other can be imagined as the material instantiation of Hayek's 'extended order' come to life in the explicated transparency of computer-mediation.
 
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Strikes me as more of you getting frantic and obsessive about crypto stuff because 10 years ago you said it was meaningless bullshit, and it's still failed to go away.
 
Well it's pissed about running in mad circles yes. But it's not disappeared - and that seems to trigger you.
It’s not a “trigger”. It’s just closely related to the field of academic study, namely social and cultural psychology, that I’m doing a Masters in. Between that and the fact that I’m a financial professional, this means I have things to say about it that I think others might find interesting to read. If you don’t find it interesting, that’s fine.
 
Well it's pissed about running in mad circles yes. But it's not disappeared - and that seems to trigger you.

Offering criticism is being triggered now? Bonehead take. I don't necessarily agree that smart contracts are anti-contracts, but the fact that they haven't really gained traction outside of the scam-riddled crypto/NFT space strongly indicates that at the very least, their current incarnation leaves much to be desired on a pretty fundamental level.
 
It’s still gone nowhere, you mean.
10 years ago there were no smart contracts, it was still a theoretical concept. The first smart contract was launched in April 2016 (and hacked pretty much immediately). In the last 3 months of 2022, 4.6 million smart contracts were launched on Ethereum alone.

That doesn't seem like "gone nowhere"
 
Offering criticism is being triggered now? Bonehead take. I don't necessarily agree that smart contracts are anti-contracts, but the fact that they haven't really gained traction outside of the scam-riddled crypto/NFT space strongly indicates that at the very least, their current incarnation leaves much to be desired on a pretty fundamental level.
It's just that every time anything vaguely crypto is mentioned it sends him into paroxysms whereby he has to rant at length about how it's the end of the world. It's just not that deep.
 
On the contrary, everything has depth. Society is constructed from the way we understand who we are, how we relate to eachother, what we understand of the other, what we expect of ourselves and others and what we expect that the other expects of us. That’s why societies are radically different over geography and over time. You can’t expect to drop something seismic into the mix and for everything else to remain the same. I might have opposite views to qwerty on whether the effect of this is good or not, but we are in agreement that it has an effect.
 
It's just that every time anything vaguely crypto is mentioned it sends him into paroxysms whereby he has to rant at length about how it's the end of the world. It's just not that deep.

I don't think that's a fair characterisation of his posts. Crypto bros and their cousins have a worldview that includes extreme technological positivism, to the point where it starts encroaching upon intellectual territory that even I, as someone who generally considers themselves pro-technology, think that they shouldn't be treading on. Take this smart contract idea, doesn't it seem paradoxical to attempt to remove the human element from the application and enforcement of things which are intended to circumscribe human behaviour? Contracts can and will need to be altered after the fact, and in the time gap between the facts on the ground changing and those with the ability to alter the contract making the necessary changes, a smart contract could end up doing something that it turns out that it shouldn't have done. So far it seems to me that smart contracts are one of those attempts at automation which are unnecessary, or even detrimental to the primary function of the task in certain circumstances.
 
I don't think that's a fair characterisation of his posts. Crypto bros and their cousins have a worldview that includes extreme technological positivism, to the point where it starts encroaching upon intellectual territory that even I, as someone who generally considers themselves pro-technology, think that they shouldn't be treading on. Take this smart contract idea, doesn't it seem paradoxical to attempt to remove the human element from the application and enforcement of things which are intended to circumscribe human behaviour? Contracts can and will need to be altered after the fact, and in the time gap between the facts on the ground changing and those with the ability to alter the contract making the necessary changes, a smart contract could end up doing something that it turns out that it shouldn't have done. So far it seems to me that smart contracts are one of those attempts at automation which are unnecessary, or even detrimental to the primary function of the task in certain circumstances.
It's a straw man. You are saying that smart contacts have to be X and therefore must end up in Y horror. Any cursory review of history and the adoption of technology will yield rants by older people that is the end of the world, and 40 years later it's merely a useful thing that gets utilised here and there.

I strongly suspect it's the character and other professed views of particular "crypto bros and their cousins" that provoke the response.
 
For those who wonder what the fuss is about, let me give a concrete example of the way smart contracts compel set paths rather create terms with consequences.

It’s a Tuesday morning and you’re running late for work. You hustle out to your driveway. But your car won’t open because the biometrics on your Aviva watch have connected with the Aviva box in the car and decided, for opaque and unchallengeable reasons, that you aren’t meeting their risk criteria to be able to drive, which are embedded into the smart contract.

Or it doesn’t even have to be personal. Maybe the box has decided that Aviva have too much concentration of risk on these roads today and by the terms of your smart contract, that precludes you from driving.

These things are possible and only possible with smart contracts. And there is a very significant power asymmetry when it comes to deciding the terms of that contract and the way those terms are auto-monitored. It ain’t going to be Joe Public that codes the contracts.
 
Clearly the 30 billion bailout has not worked then

Contradicting the earlier FT story?
 
For those who wonder what the fuss is about, let me give a concrete example of the way smart contracts compel set paths rather create terms with consequences.
no, its exactly "terms with consequences", its just that these consequences are enforced.

But lets go through your scenario

It’s a Tuesday morning and you’re running late for work. You hustle out to your driveway. But your car won’t open because the biometrics on your Aviva watch have connected with the Aviva box in the car and decided, for opaque
Not opaque, smart contracts are public.

For example, here is the most used smart contract in 2022, its Uniswap's v3 router, which swaps one token for another. Running this contract through ChatGPT will give you a plain english version of what it does; the audit (people should not be using unaudited contracts unless they are solidity masters!) will give you further information.


and unchallengeable reasons, that you aren’t meeting their risk criteria to be able to drive, which are embedded into the smart contract.
...the smart contract, which you signed.

So you agreed that if these risk criteria were breached, you would not be able to drive the car.
For example, your watch might have identified a high proportion of alcohol in your bloodstream, or the precursors of a heart attack, or that your cortisol level is too high for you to drive safely.

Now you might think, "bah, I only had one little sherry to calm my nerves cos I is late for very important meeting and I am a super afe driver who never has an accident even when plastered", but that isnt what you signed up for.
Or it doesn’t even have to be personal. Maybe the box has decided that Aviva have too much concentration of risk on these roads today and by the terms of your smart contract, that precludes you from driving.
Indeed, you might have chosen a car insurance contract that states that you are not able to drive in the dark/under -3C/when there nearby fire on locally.

Under a traditional contract, you might decide to ignore that and take the risk that you will get caught/die/kill someone and suffer consequences for doing so, but a smart contract will enforce the terms.
These things are possible and only possible with smart contracts.
Yup.
And there is a very significant power asymmetry when it comes to deciding the terms of that contract and the way those terms are auto-monitored. It ain’t going to be Joe Public that codes the contracts.
Why not? There are increasing numbers of no-code platforms where you can write your own contract.

I dont have a say in what my insurance contract says...I get a few choices (third party or comprehensive etc), but mostly they write, I sign. With smart contracts you could tailor your insurance to exactly what you want.
If you want to be able to drive in the dark, at -3C with a nearby fire, while drunk, stressed to fuck and on the brink of a heart attack, I'm pretty certain someone would take the counterparty risk, and let your smart car turn on the ignition, but you'd pay through the nose for it.
 
So would it be fair to say that they've essentially been forcibly sold off to a competitor for buttons by the swiss govt, who changed the law so that none of the shareholders got any say over any of it?

Cos if so, the government must have been absolutely fucking shitting it.
 
The more I think about this Credit Suisse buyout, the more risk I perceive in it. Anybody who has been through a corporate acquisition knows just how much it dominates management time. This will introduce a massive distraction to UBS’s own day to day management, which could cause them to take their eye off their own plentiful balls. Plus they also risk polluting their more successful risk culture at UBS by injecting the vast Credit Suisse failed culture into their workings. Rather than rescuing Credit Suisse, there is thus the risk that this actually also just damages UBS.
 
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