Global financial system implosion begins

[8ball]

What I've read from those who understand it a lot more than me, is that with blockchain design you have to choose 2 priorities from security, speed and decentralisation - but currently you can't have all 3.

From what little I know, you’ll never have all
3. There seem to be a heap of things where you are after 3 desirable attributes and are faced with a trade-off and you can have two of the attributes you want but not three.

You want a car, say - you may want fast, safe and cheap.
There are heaps of examples.

 

[magneze]

Thanks, sounds very much like CAP Theorem.

CAP theorem - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[not-bono-ever]

It’s been a bloodbath today in the markets in the basis of the new covid strain . Confidence is a shitty and unreliable bedfellow. Bad winter ahead

 

[Idaho]

Not really a bloodbath yet. That's more abh than gbh. Certainly a kicking.

 

[flypanam]

McKinsey seems to have admitted that global economic growth has been fraudulent. It seems that the asset bubble is the main driver of new wealth so much so that the global economy is overshadowed by liabilities, debt and shite and that hoarding intellectual property as an asset stops growth

The rise and rise of the global balance sheet: How productively are we using our wealth?

Global wealth has tripled in 20 years, but how productively have we used that growth in wealth?

www.mckinsey.com

 

[elbows]

Not surprising given that growth is a god of this system and if god dies then it is necessary to pretend otherwise for as long as possible. Ultimately unsustainable though I suspect, and that will eventually combine with the other big stories of the century in a way that is more obvious to all than it has been over the last 21 years.

 

[yield]

Extreme Weather and Pandemic Help Drive Global Food Prices to 46-Year High
Yale Climate Connections. December 6, 2021

Food prices are complex, with weather, biofuel policies, trade policies, grain stocking policies, and fluctuating international financial conditions all important factors. High fuel prices, supply chain disruptions resulting from the pandemic, and high fertilizer prices are all contributing to the current high global food prices.

According to Reuters, global fertilizer prices have increased 80% this year, reaching their highest levels since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Primary causes of the current high prices include extreme weather events (particularly the February cold wave in Texas and Hurricane Ida in August), which disrupted U.S. fertilizer production, and the high cost in Europe of natural gas, a key component in producing fertilizer). Fertilizer shortages threaten to reduce grain harvests in 2022, according to CF Industries, a major fertilizer producer.

Carlos Mera of Rabobank pointed out that Russia, a major wheat producer, hiked its export tax on wheat this year to incentivize keeping supplies at home. “That is quite scary,” said Mera. “Events like the French Revolution and the Arab Spring have been blamed on high food prices.” High wheat prices in 2011 (in the wake of export restrictions triggered by the 2010 drought in Russia) helped lead to massive civil unrest and the toppling of multiple governments (the “Arab Spring”).

The current high food prices, combined with the ongoing pandemic, will make the global food supply highly vulnerable to extreme weather shocks in 2022. An upcoming post here will analyze what may be climate change’s greatest threat to society: a food-system shock driven by extreme weather, primarily drought, and causing simultaneous crop failures in multiple key grain-exporting areas.

 

[flypanam]

Stock market not reflecting profits or corporate earnings thus some observers are getting jittery Corporate profits are not keeping up with inflation, a warning sign for the market.

 

[kabbes]

I’m not saying that the US stockmarket is either undervalued or overvalued, but that is one tiny opinion piece in a general newspaper basing its opinion on a single, universal metric.

The aggregate opinion of the stockmarket is its price. That’s literally the average view on whether it is overvalued or undervalued, at least of those who are putting their money where their mouths are. For every opinion piece about why it is overvalued, there is an equivalent one to say the opposite. If that wasn’t the case, the piece would already have dropped until it became the case again.

As regards this specific metric — I can think of 10 reasons off the top of my head why the rise in dividend yield for this specific year might be less than inflation, including the spiky nature of this year’s inflation and the impact of a rapid bounce back of the share prices. At the end of the day, US dividend yields are always very low compared to other markets. The S&P500 remained between 1% and 2% for the whole of the 2000s (except a brief spike up to 3% following the 2008 crash). It’s currently 1.26%, which is low but doesn’t in itself mean that much.

 

[Pickman's model]

Stock market not reflecting profits or corporate earnings thus some observers are getting jittery Corporate profits are not keeping up with inflation, a warning sign for the market.

Better to invest in Lego apparently

 

[kabbes]

I just came across the statistic that the top 6 companies are 26% of the S&P 500, and they have a P/E ratio of nearly 70, which really drags that dividend yield down. The remaining 494 companies have a mean P/E in the mid to late 20s and a median of more like 20. This is far more in line with long-term averages. I guess people will have their own views on whether Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla are overvalued, but you have to separate that view out from the general stockmarket

 

[flypanam]

But the fact that the price has been written by a long time observer must be of some note but mind you Bloomberg had this great tweet back in 2017…

 

[kabbes]

That's... one take on it, I suppose...

 

[yield]

Wall Street Is Close to Triggering a Climate Financial Crisis
December 14, 2021
And just like 2008, the biggest losers will be those least responsible for it.

If the financial-services industry was a country, it would rank as the world’s fifth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

A study authored by the Sierra Club and the Center for American Progress shows that eight of the biggest U.S. banks and 10 of its largest asset managers combined to finance an estimated 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, based on year-end disclosures from 2020, or about 1% less than what Russia produced.

Bloomberg, biting the hand that feeds it.

 

[ska invita]

hurry up and implode you bastards

 

[brogdale]

hurry up and implode you bastards

 

[extra dry]

https://youtube.com/c/StatusCoup slowly getting there

 

[gosub]

Goldman Flags $8.2 Trillion Threat Worse Than China Evergrande

Goldman Sachs says the total debt of local government financing vehicles rose to $8.2 at the end of 2020.

www.forbes.com

 

[CH1]

Goldman Flags $8.2 Trillion Threat Worse Than China Evergrande

Goldman Sachs says the total debt of local government financing vehicles rose to $8.2 at the end of 2020.

www.forbes.com

sounds terrible - but in a Marxist state surely money is ultimately the tool of the state - and the fiscal rules not necessarily Gordon Brown prudent?

 

[gosub]

sounds terrible - but in a Marxist state surely money is ultimately the tool of the state - and the fiscal rules not necessarily Gordon Brown prudent?

was thinking at the time I posted its alright nationalising Evergrande and the rest of the construction industry but local govenrment thats a different question. I think a lot of people are going to get killed and then China might think about reorganising it political C&C and taxation structures.

 

[CH1]

was thinking at the time I posted its alright nationalising Evergrande and the rest of the construction industry but local govenrment thats a different question. I think a lot of people are going to get killed and then China might think about reorganising it political C&C and taxation structures.

Indebtedness was apparently a municipal strategy in the UK in the 1920s, particularly for (council) house building.
LCC and Liverpool 3% irredemable bonds used to be traded on the stock market - probably got cancelled when the Tories put interest rates up to 17%, forcing the bonds down to 20p in the £.

This channel seems to have interesting titbits, but also appears to be like an RT slot (Keiser/Boom Bust) owned by Falun Gong/Epoch Times.

 

[NoXion]

This channel seems to have interesting titbits, but also appears to be like an RT slot (Keiser/Boom Bust) owned by Falun Gong/Epoch Times.

Between the Falun Gong nutters, right-wing onanism, and tankie apologists, it really is a fucking minefield when it comes to looking up content concerning China.

 

[gosub]

Indebtedness was apparently a municipal strategy in the UK in the 1920s, particularly for (council) house building.
LCC and Liverpool 3% irredemable bonds used to be traded on the stock market - probably got cancelled when the Tories put interest rates up to 17%, forcing the bonds down to 20p in the £.

This channel seems to have interesting titbits, but also appears to be like an RT slot (Keiser/Boom Bust) owned by Falun Gong/Epoch Times.

Aware of that re falun gong bur do find sources that are less worried about Chinese face and offense useful. That one for example has stats on how much local government is responsible for health and education for example and he's not wrong about Chinese local governments tax rasing powers AND Chinese does disappear and/or execute its citizens on corruption charges

 

[Flavour]

In strictly relativist terms, given the alternatives on offer, are Falun Gong really that bad as a source of news? Not really sure what their large-scale agenda is, if they have one beyond freedom of expression for their (admittedly new age and a bit wacky) religion

(Strictly talking about China stuff obv)

 

[NoXion]

In strictly relativist terms, given the alternatives on offer, are Falun Gong really that bad as a source of news?

They're a racist cult, so yes they really are that bad.

 

[platinumsage]

I think they're broadly equivalent to Scientologists

 

[CH1]

NoXion Flavour
I don't necessarily write off a news source if it's ownership is dodgy/suspect.
But there is a long term issue with British press - particularly Telegraph and Mail (Wikipedia no longer allow the Daily Mail to be quoted as a source)
If you are/were a long-term viewer of RT this has now got ridiculous.
GB News started ridiculous - they have nowhere else to go.

I have no in depth knowledge about Falun Gong - but their strident views on China govt persecution align with Sir Geoffrey Nice
I attended this lecture, which was horrifying Organ Transplants and Human Rights Abuses in China

Not aware of how Falun Gong are racist. Please explain.

 

[CH1]

I think they're broadly equivalent to Scientologists

You mean they sell enlightenment on credit - and harass people who quit?

 

[gosub]

They're a racist cult, so yes they really are that bad.

As this is a finance thread thats not particularly relavent. And whilst rationally white monkeys pro-shilling for the CCP aren't racist, you still have a problem given that they are thought of as white monkeys. Think this is more a lets talk abourt China bit of debate tbh

 

[NoXion]

NoXion Not aware of how Falun Gong are racist. Please explain.

Try here: Lecture in Sydney

Quote from the cult's founder, Li Hongzhi:

The races in the world are not allowed to be mixed up. Now, the races are mixed up and it has brought about an extraordinarily serious problem. Once races are mixed up, one does not have a corresponding relationship with the higher levels, and he has lost the root. Mixed races have lost their roots, as if nobody in the paradise will take care of them. They belong to nowhere, and no places would accept them. Therefore, you find the place where the continents of Europe and Asia meet a desert in the past and a depopulated zone. When the transportation means were not advanced, it was difficult to pass through it. With the progress of modern means, all these are broken through. Thus, races have become increasingly mixed up, which can lead to serious consequences. Of course, I will not go into details. I'm just saying that the higher levels do not recognize such a human race.