Tooze is fascinating on the nature of this “new normal” for monetary policy in rich countries. QE is a reasonably straightforward process: a central bank electronically creates new money and uses this new cash to purchase assets from the private sector—mostly in the form of government bonds. But what exactly is this simple operation actually achieving? That is less clear: Ben Bernanke, head of the US Federal Reserve during the crash, once remarked that QE “works in practice, but not in theory.” It’s probably more accurate to say there are so many rival theories about how it might work, that it is hard to have faith in any of them.
According to monetarist logic, increasing the supply of money should, all things being equal, lead to higher inflation. But all things are rarely equal. The more persistent threat facing the US, the Eurozone and Japan over the past decade (and in Japan’s case longer) has been undershooting inflation (or even outright deflation) rather than soaring prices.