General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[two sheds]

I'm sure the Tories can pass legislation preventing an incoming Labour government from passing legislation to repeal the legislation that says they can't raise taxes.

Aha!!!!! But .....

And if the tories pass legislation that there can be no tax rises until 2020 all labour has to do is pass legislation saying that it's now 2020.

 

[danny la rouge]

No, it means that labour isn't going to be able to raise taxes if *they* get in after the tories' 5 years is up ...

Eh? But the pledge is that a Tory government will introduce a law guaranteeing no rise in income tax rates, VAT or national insurance before 2020. If Labour gets in in 2020, the time limit will have been reached. So the law applies to the Tory govt from 15 - 20, not Labour thereafter.

 

[articul8]

So [the Trews].... Frost/Nixon it ain't

 

[skyscraper101]

that was so last page ago

 

[articul8]

that was so last page ago

ah didn't keep up...

 

[two sheds]

Eh? But the pledge is that a Tory government will introduce a law guaranteeing no rise in income tax rates, VAT or national insurance before 2020. If Labour gets in in 2020, the time limit will have been reached. So the law applies to the Tory govt from 15 - 20, not Labour thereafter.

Fair play. Even more pointless, then.

 

[rioted]

I'm sure the Tories can pass legislation preventing an incoming Labour government from passing legislation to repeal the legislation that says they can't raise taxes.

Why bother? Labour haven't exactly got a brilliant record of repealing Tory legislation.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Why bother? Labour haven't exactly got a brilliant record of repealing Tory legislation.

I can already see the next election campaign if this happens, with the Tories demanding that Labour say whether or not they will keep the legislation. It's utterly absurd, but I can see the logic, and a spineless Labour party may well cave in.

 

[Quartz]

Grrr... Cameron's saying that he knows what needs doing. Well, the fuckwit's had five years, so why hasn't he done it?

 

[Orang Utan]

Sorry to ask such a specific question, but does anyone know if Labour have a chance of unseating Greg Mulholland in Leeds Northwest? The seat has alternated between LibDem and Tory for a while, and historically it was a strong Tory seat. I would like to use my vote to unseat a LibDem if there's any point, but otherwise I'm floating between Alliance For Green Socialism and Spunking Cock. I have a postal vote so need to decide soon.

 

[killer b]

it's a shoe-in for the greens, apparently.

 

[belboid]

Sorry to ask such a specific question, but does anyone know if Labour have a chance of unseating Greg Mulholland in Leeds Northwest? The seat has alternated between LibDem and Tory for a while, and historically it was a strong Tory seat. I would like to use my vote to unseat a LibDem if there's any point, but otherwise I'm floating between Alliance For Green Socialism and Spunking Cock. I have a postal vote so need to decide soon.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_vote_by_seat.html

Neck and neck between them in the LibScum, according to that.

 

[killer b]

You should vote Labour if you want Mulholland out, joking (and walter mitty fantasies) aside. They're in with a good chance I'd say.

 

[Orang Utan]

http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_vote_by_seat.html

Neck and neck between them in the LibScum, according to that.

Ooh wow, thanks for that, belboid. Good resource. I guess it's Labour then. My how things have changed. I feel a twinge of regret as I have been practising my phallus illustration and was improving daily.

 

[belboid]

Ooh wow, thanks for that, belboid. Good resource. I guess it's Labour then. My how things have changed. I feel a twinge of regret as I have been practising my phallus illustration and was improving daily.

It is quite shocking, innit? Twas always the awful Keith Hampson while I was there, and he won by a mile.

Oddly, I've just seen that Sheffield Central is the seat predicted to have the second highest non-Tory, Labour, LibScum, kipper, Green, or Speaker vote, a whole 6% Looking good for the Communists.

 

[killer b]

the seat was solid labour from 1997-2005, apparently.

 

[belboid]

the seat was solid labour from 1997-2005, apparently.

tis true, there was a massive swing in '97, significantly bigger even than it was nationally.

I wasn't there then, so cant help but think of it as tory heartland

 

[Orang Utan]

the seat was solid labour from 1997-2005, apparently.

That surprises me. I can understand Hampson losing his seat as he was one of those Tories tainted by the sleaze label, but the constituency has many wealthy voters in Westwood/Adel, and Otley, which is well posh, so it just goes to show how much New Labour appealed to that sort.

 

[ChrisD]

http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_vote_by_seat.html

Neck and neck between them in the LibScum, according to that.

what's this based on and how often updated? interesting.

 

[belboid]

what's this based on and how often updated? interesting.

"Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 29 April 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk"

It's often being sited as 'Nate Silver's Election Forecast' despite him having almost absolutely nothing to do with it.

It does get quite dodgy on some of the particular seats tho. I just noticed that Bradford West is down for having only 3% of people voting for someone outside of the Big 5. And Bradford West is where George Galloway is MP, of course. I think he'll get at least 5%

 

[brogdale]

Yes, it's a shit assumption to be starting from. But I just thought the message was pretty astonishing. Like, "To be honest, I can't be trusted on any of these promises, so I'm going to have to pass laws that stop me from going against my word".

So, will you pass a law to make sure you pass the law stopping you from increasing taxes?

Guardian have dug up this gideon quote from 2009...

No other chancellor in the long history of the office has felt the need to pass a law in order to convince people that he has the political will to implement his own Budget. As one commentator observed this week, there are only two conclusions. Either the chancellor has lost confidence in himself to stick to his resolution, and is, so to speak, asking the police to help him, or he fears that everyone else has lost confidence in his ability to keep his word, but hopes that they might believe in the statute book if not in him. Neither is much of a recommendation for the chancellor of the day.

 

[killer b]

Milibrand (urgh) was impressive I thought - very solid performance. That won't have done any harm at all.

 

[ChrisD]

"Our model combines data .......
It does get quite dodgy on some of the particular seats tho. I just noticed that Bradford West is down for having only 3% of people voting for someone outside of the Big 5. And Bradford West is where George Galloway is MP, of course. I think he'll get at least 5%

The Bookies are giving good odds for Claire Wright (independant) in East Devon which is not reflected in that table - but elsewhere I can see that data other than national stuff is included.

 

[two sheds]

Could we have a law to stop it raining on a Thursday? I'd ask for it not to rain on a weekend but there'd be some fucking point to that.

 

[chilango]

It is quite shocking, innit? Twas always the awful Keith Hampson while I was there, and he won by a mile.

Oddly, I've just seen that Sheffield Central is the seat predicted to have the second highest non-Tory, Labour, LibScum, kipper, Green, or Speaker vote, a whole 6% Looking good for the Communists.

What's the highest?

 

[Dogsauce]

That surprises me. I can understand Hampson losing his seat as he was one of those Tories tainted by the sleaze label, but the constituency has many wealthy voters in Westwood/Adel, and Otley, which is well posh, so it just goes to show how much New Labour appealed to that sort.

There was a massive increase in the student population in the 90s, with many staying on afterwards and spreading out into neighbouring areas like Meanwood. Although these were fairly WC areas so probably solidly labour, the increased density will have helped numbers. The posh bits seemed to leak voters to the lib dems which will have reduced the Tory lead quite a bit, enough for labour to poke ahead. There's lots of orange banners in places like bramhope. Still quite a lot of Tory voters about. Not sure if there's been any boundary changes too.

Locally in the Leeds area I think Pudsey might be a close one, not a big Tory majority. Visiting politicians seem to be heading for there if they come to the city.

 

[Pickman's model]

Could we have a law to stop it raining on a Thursday? I'd ask for it not to rain on a weekend but there'd be some fucking point to that.

i quite like it raining on thursdays.

 

[Pickman's model]

Could we have a law to stop it raining on a Thursday? I'd ask for it not to rain on a weekend but there'd be some fucking point to that.

king canute trying to enforce a variation on the law against rain on thursdays

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Just heard that the Tories will pass legislation to stop them raising taxes for 5 years if they win.

Are they saying they aren't to be trusted? It sounds a strange ploy.

from what i gather, proposal does not apply to excise taxes (e.g. fags, booze, petrol) or any other new / existing stealth taxes

and this bunch have form (aided by spineless absention by labour on the workfare thing) for retrospective changes to law, so completely meaningless bollocks (ETA - what they are saying - not you)

 

[belboid]

What's the highest?

Wyre Forest - which had the independent doctor bloke until 2010.

I suspect Sheffield Central is because they have pirate party AND 'none of the above party' candidates.