General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[treelover]

David Cameron: it's time for Tory campaign to let rip in final week

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ign-let-rip-final-week-election-conservatives

Puff piece in the Guardian

 

[Pickman's model]

Puff piece in the Guardian

have you put in a complaint yet? http://www.theguardian.com/info/complaints-and-corrections

 

[Pickman's model]

Puff piece in the Guardian

are you a no platform for tories in the mainstream media man?

 

[redsquirrel]

Ooh wow, thanks for that, belboid. Good resource. I guess it's Labour then. My how things have changed. I feel a twinge of regret as I have been practising my phallus illustration and was improving daily.

Yeah if your primary aim is to kick the LibDems out then you want to vote Labour, the Guardian and May2015 both have it remaining LD but only by a small margin.

 

[William of Walworth]

Could we have a law to stop it raining on a Thursday? I'd ask for it not to rain on a weekend but there'd be some fucking point to that.

Forecasts I've seen** suggest mostly fine weather later next week and into the weekend after GE day, for what that far-too-early data might be worth.

**Prospective festival goer checks forecasts for non-electoral reasons ...
Remember your forecasts may go down as well as up etc etc.

 

[Quartz]

Puff piece in the Guardian

Puff piece? Fart piece more like, with Cameron issuing a steaming pile of shit.

 

[Pickman's model]

Forecasts I've seen** suggest mostly fine weather later next week into the weekend after GE day, for what that far-too-early data might be worth.

**Prospective festival goer checks forecasts for non-electoral reasons ...
Remember your forecasts may go down as well as up etc etc.

 

[Dogsauce]

This no tie and rolled up sleeves thing Cameron does is really shit, isn't it? I presume it's supposed to make him look 'hard working' but combined with the rosy face just looks like a straggler from a shit stag do, falling out of Yates's on a Saturday afternoon. They've got no fucking idea.

 

[superfly101]

 

[two sheds]

 

[Pickman's model]

here's a treat

 

[David Clapson]

Here's the nightmare scenario keeping me awake at night: a Boris majority government in November. It's being floated in the media here and there. A second election this year is a strong possibility http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/will-there-be-2-general-elections-in-2015 A minority Labour govt is currently the bookies' favourite for next week http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government Boris would replace Cameron as Tory leader. Labour would fall out with the SNP and lose a vote of no confidence. There'd be a snap election in November. Boris would stand down as Mayor and win a majority. It would make the last 5 years look like a picnic.

(N.B. The bookies have proven more accurate than pollsters in the past.)

 

[Pickman's model]

Here's the nightmare scenario keeping me awake at night: a Boris majority government in November. It's being floated in the media here and there. A second election this year is a strong possibility http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/will-there-be-2-general-elections-in-2015 A minority Labour govt is currently the bookies' favourite for next week http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government Boris would replace Cameron as Tory leader. Labour would fall out with the SNP and lose a vote of no confidence. There'd be a snap election in November. Boris would stand down as Mayor and win a majority. It would make the last 5 years look like a picnic.

(N.B. The bookies have proven more accurate than pollsters in the past.)

i wouldn't mind a boris government in november as long as there was a general election in december.

 

[brogdale]

nothing if not consistent, then?

 

[brogdale]

Here's the nightmare scenario keeping me awake at night: a Boris majority government in November. It's being floated in the media here and there. A second election this year is a strong possibility http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/will-there-be-2-general-elections-in-2015 A minority Labour govt is currently the bookies' favourite for next week http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government Boris would replace Cameron as Tory leader. Labour would fall out with the SNP and lose a vote of no confidence. There'd be a snap election in November. Boris would stand down as Mayor and win a majority. It would make the last 5 years look like a picnic.

(N.B. The bookies have proven more accurate than pollsters in the past.)

Assuming Cameron does not present, or fails to pass a QS(VoC), then Miliband would only pass his own QS with SNP votes. Why, if that were to happen, would the SNP then seek to bring that administration down and risk bringing about a tory admin? And 'snap elections' are not really within the remit of an incumbent; remember the provisions of the fixed term parliament act.

 

[redsquirrel]

Here's the nightmare scenario keeping me awake at night: a Boris majority government in November. It's being floated in the media here and there. A second election this year is a strong possibility http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/will-there-be-2-general-elections-in-2015 A minority Labour govt is currently the bookies' favourite for next week http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government Boris would replace Cameron as Tory leader. Labour would fall out with the SNP and lose a vote of no confidence. There'd be a snap election in November. Boris would stand down as Mayor and win a majority. It would make the last 5 years look like a picnic.

(N.B. The bookies have proven more accurate than pollsters in the past.)

Fantasy stuff. A minority Labour gov is on the cards but the rest is silly season.

Firstly Boris will have to win the Tory leadership, which despite what some are saying is nothing like a certainty. Then you have to have a situation where the SNP know that causing Labour to lose a vote of confidence would probably issue in a Tory government and they do it anyway. Finally you're assuming a party that hasn't won a majority in 20 odd years can sweep to power when they are still trying to find a narrow channel to keep their right and left flanks in order.

 

[killer b]

Johnson.

 

[killer b]

also, not a fucking chance.

 

[David Clapson]

Assuming Cameron does not present, or fails to pass a QS(VoC), then Miliband would only pass his own QS with SNP votes. Why, if that were to happen, would the SNP then seek to bring that administration down and risk bringing about a tory admin? And 'snap elections' are not really within the remit of an incumbent; remember the provisions of the fixed term parliament act.

What I imagine is: SNP demands no Trident replacement but Labour won't budge. SNP, playing the long game with the overriding goal of another referendum one fine day, decides to stick to its principles and not risk what happened to the LibDems with tuition fees. They don't mind letting the Tories in for a few years. The main thing is to keep their near-100% of Scottish seats, and if anything a Tory govt will make the appetite for independence stronger than a Labour one would. As for the question of a snap election, I thought we'd have to have one if a govt loses a no-confidence vote?

 

[jakethesnake]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/29/uk-election-ballot-papers-stolen-van-thieves-london
Stolen ballot papers What dodginess is this? Are they getting ready to steal an election?

 

[brogdale]

What I imagine is: SNP demands no Trident replacement but Labour won't budge. SNP, playing the long game with the overriding goal of another referendum one fine day, decides to stick to its principles and not risk what happened to the LibDems with tuition fees. They don't mind letting the Tories in for a few years. The main thing is to keep their near-100% of Scottish seats, and if anything a Tory govt will make the appetite for independence stronger than a Labour one would. As for the question of a snap election, I thought we'd have to have one if a govt loses a no-confidence vote?

I think you're over-looking the capacity for the opposition to vote with or abstain to allow the government to legislate for (eg) Trident without any need for support from the nationalists.

 

[Quartz]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/29/uk-election-ballot-papers-stolen-van-thieves-london
Stolen ballot papers What dodginess is this? Are they getting ready to steal an election?

Fresh ballot papers are being issued. In a different colour. There'll be no stealing of the election there.

Officers found nothing to suggest the white Mercedes van had been targeted for its contents or that the theft was an attempt at electoral fraud. They told the local authorities they believed it was a coincidence the stolen van contained ballot papers. The theft took place overnight.

 

[David Clapson]

I think you're over-looking the capacity for the opposition to vote with or abstain to allow the government to legislate for (eg) Trident without any need for support from the nationalists.

There wouldn't be a vote specifically about Trident. Tories can just sit on their hands and wait.

 

[brogdale]

There wouldn't be a vote specifically about Trident. Tories can just sit on their hands and wait.

But you implied that their objection would bring down the administration they will put in place. What are you on about?

 

[David Clapson]

I imagine that the SNP vote with Labour initially, while announcing that they are having a backroom negotiation about Trident. After a few weeks SNP announces that negotiations have broken down so they're withdrawing all support.

 

[brogdale]

I imagine that the SNP vote with Labour initially, while announcing that they are having a backroom negotiation about Trident. After a few weeks SNP announces that negotiations have broken down so they're withdrawing all support.

More likely that they would preserve their principled stance and let Lab take the rap for nukes. Not much logic to put an administration in place only to then immediately bring it down. Nonsense.

 

[David Clapson]

But how do you preserve your principled stance while propping up a govt which opposes your principle? Clegg showed what happens if you try.

 

[Quartz]

As long as Trident gets moved from Scotland, why should the SNP care? Labour can kick the whole thing into the long grass by announcing a consultation as to the future location of Trident and that can take as long as Labour likes and the SNP have a sufficient victory for their voters.

 

[brogdale]

But how do you preserve your principled stance while propping up a govt which opposes your principle? Clegg showed what happens if you try.

I don't think they intend to prop it up. Sturgeon has made clear that they'll offer Lab 'confidence' (QS) and thereafter support(or not) on a case-by-case basis with no formalised agreement, let alone coalition. Sturgeon has said all this knowing that Lab will keep the nukes.

 

[David Clapson]

I hope you're right. And I think you probably are right. I like to think that Sturgeon will be an asset to England by pushing Miliband to the left on one or two things. But..it's nerve-wracking. I don't remember ever being this worried about an election before.