General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat
- Thread starter phillm
- Start date
ska invita
back on the other side
From what I gather Whitty is talking about the usual taking the foot off the restrictions pedal once numbers eventually come down and expecting Covid to be around during winter to come, possibly for years to come.
When we came out of lockdown #one the numbers were low, but Superspreader Sunak and the rest of the cabinet encouraged everyone to go forth and multiply, instead of trying to stamp it out.
The Tories mindset aside, is the possibility of having a Zero Covid policy in the UK impossible?
When we came out of lockdown #one the numbers were low, but Superspreader Sunak and the rest of the cabinet encouraged everyone to go forth and multiply, instead of trying to stamp it out.
The Tories mindset aside, is the possibility of having a Zero Covid policy in the UK impossible?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I've touched on this in the last week.
I dont spend too much time on it because I dont think there will be many serious signs of the establishment going with such an approach unless key aspects of their remaining orthodox approach repeatedly fail.
In practice that probably means that the entire vaccination-based approach would have to be thwarted repeatedly before the powers that be might come to accept that zero covid was now the more plausible exist strategy.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah, size of population and nature of internal and external travel are some of the reasons why the establishment in this country would not generally consider having a complete suppression approach to respiratory viruses on their menu of orthodox options.
I did spend quite a lot of time commentating on the chunks of orthodoxy that went down in flames in this country, most notably in March but to some extent since (eg attitude towards masks). I will be sure to get involved in that again if the time comes, but I dont currently have reasons to expect more orthodoxy-busting moments soon.
They might well soon shift the extent to which they bother doing anything at all about certain kinds of travel restrictions and border tests. This would be another useful bit of progress should the time come to do that stuff more wholeheartedly in the pursuit of zero covid, but I dont know as I will ever really get to see it happen in that context.
ska invita
back on the other side
yes please. the fact it hasnt/isnt happening is mind boggling to me.
ska invita
back on the other side
if we get to low numbers like we did last summer (not a certainty this time around, what with mutations etc), i cant see why there couldnt be a serious push to squash it properly. proper test and trace and isolate. proper covid control on borders.
inevitably instead we'll get bojo eating ice cream on a beach in cornwall singing knees up mother brown
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well now is not the moment to focus on it and consider its viability, those moments come when cases are back down to minimal levels.
Zero Covid is a tricky approach because of how many times you may need to go through it, and how strongly guards must be kept up. Its easier to imagine it if the establisment were onboard, and if most countries had the same approach. Otherwise there are just too many forces that are not sincerely onboard, and there is no end-game to the approach if the virus is still rampant in countries, ready to reimport it when border restrictions are eased.
Most countries that have managed to get into a position where they are able to go for something resembling zero covid, probably see it as a situation to be maintained in order to buy time for vaccinations. Vaccination is expected to totally change the nature of the burden this disease has on society, and then responses to the virus will in turn change. And I think that will be true whether its a country with an impressive zero covid record or one thats had huge, barely controlled waves of infection. Countries that have taken surveillance, control and preventative action seriously and built it into their systems may maintain aspects of that on an ongoing basis, but that side of things wont be asked to carry the same weight after mass vaccinations as it was before.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Fears over particular new strains are another way that some of the concepts from zero covid may end up finding new appreciation from the establishment. Even under such situations, they may just not bother though, and reach for other tools such as vaccinations tweaked to counter new strains as required.
We'll just have to wait and see. I know Scotland went so far as to at least introduce the concept of total suppression of the virus into its rhetoric at one stage, when cases were low. And they are more the sort of size of country where I'd expect such things to be easier to imagine, and face somewhat less political & press opposition from the usual toxic interests. And indeed there is mention in some documents about tracking of various strains and mutations, that one particular lineage with a particular mutation that was seen in Scotland in fair numbers for a time, appeared to go extinct at some stage, perhaps June, I forget the detail. There may be a lesson there. Not one many with power will want to heed, for economic reasons, unless they are forced to by failure of other options.
We'll just have to wait and see. I know Scotland went so far as to at least introduce the concept of total suppression of the virus into its rhetoric at one stage, when cases were low. And they are more the sort of size of country where I'd expect such things to be easier to imagine, and face somewhat less political & press opposition from the usual toxic interests. And indeed there is mention in some documents about tracking of various strains and mutations, that one particular lineage with a particular mutation that was seen in Scotland in fair numbers for a time, appeared to go extinct at some stage, perhaps June, I forget the detail. There may be a lesson there. Not one many with power will want to heed, for economic reasons, unless they are forced to by failure of other options.
ska invita
back on the other side
Thing is the economy - by which i mean peoples lives - are getting destroyed right now. Propping the rest up with furlough is a huge spending exercise.
Tory economic thinking on this is more capitalist ideology of values than it is economic reason. Economic reason to me is Zero Covid
magneze
🎧
Agreed as a temporary measure but really difficult to have permenantly which a zero covid strategy would mean.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I found the Scottish detail since it didnt seem right to make vague references to it without the deetail.
Its from a document about mutations from September, before the newcent new variant concerns came to light.
Its from a document about mutations from September, before the newcent new variant concerns came to light.
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ska invita
back on the other side
yeah they got down really low
news.stv.tv
Scotland has a very open border of course
Zero confirmed coronavirus deaths in Scotland for 10 days
Four new cases recorded in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of positive cases across the country to 18,551.
Scotland has a very open border of course
elbows
Well-Known Member
yeah they got down really low
Zero confirmed coronavirus deaths in Scotland for 10 days
Four new cases recorded in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of positive cases across the country to 18,551.
Scotland has a very open border of course
When the dust settled on their equivalent of ONS stats, by date of death I dont think they actually ended up having more than 5 continuous days in a row without at least one Covid-related death according to death certificates.
Just thinking aloud about immunity. So they reckon that immunity lasts 5-6months now, is that right? So any chance the rules might change on isolating. For example if you've had a positive test and isolated, do you still need to isolate if you are named as a close contact? I'm guessing the answer is still yes.
prunus
Tick tock.
The answer is still yes, yes, and will remain so for some time I should think, until we’ve had time to examine just what immunity means for onward transmission.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Very definitely yes. A friend had symptoms and tested positive recently, isolated and then recovered. And then her dickhead housemate brought someone in from London, who then developed symptoms and tested positive and so then she had to isolate again, 3 days after hers had finished. She was slightly pissed off...
smmudge
i know the smudge is true
Unfortunately it feels like every failure makes it harder and harder to consider zero covid. When I still feel like there's a chance that will end up as our only option, when the virus is mutating and it's too hard to make vaccines effective.
Maybe we're fucked in this pandemic, hopefully for the next one they'll pursue the zero virus approach a bit more avidly from the start.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Is he clinically vulnerable? My dad is the same age and hasn't heard anything yetMy 78-year-old dad had his first dose of vaccine today
And, very pleasingly indeed, they booked him in for his second dose for 3-weeks' time
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
Some cognitive decline/early dementia. Cancer, but not one of the ones on the list. Very mobility impaired.
I don't know what the equation is that balances those and other things. Hopefully not too much 'postcode lottery' in it.
He only got his appointment 2 days ago (or became aware of it then).
Fingers crossed for your dad to get his vax asap.
BigMoaner
We will all go together
been trying to find the first ever world news story that broke about the virus. best i can get:
edition.cnn.com
creepy the way it was relatively small news for a few days. here we are 10 months or so later.
CNN's early reporting on the novel coronavirus: Articles, videos and posts from January and February 2020 | CNN
President Donald Trump on Monday falsely claimed the media had ignored the outbreak of coronavirus in January and February, as he sought to defend his response to the pandemic.
creepy the way it was relatively small news for a few days. here we are 10 months or so later.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Ah ok, my dad is healthier - cancer but not poorly with it, just the usual age-related things like arthritice and no cognitive impairment. I'm just impatient as I don't want to bring it home to him from work.
crossthebreeze
Well-Known Member
This is quite disturbing and disgusting behaviour from scottish police to a family that were obviously already under a huge amount of stress. Pushing their way into the house accusing them of having guests around, when their ill daughter had just returned home from hospital (and subsequently fits while the police continue to argue with the family) in stark contrast to how little businesses have been held to account for covid health and safety. Comments on twitter show this is being jumped on by smiley-faced covid deniers of course.
ska invita
back on the other side
going back to zero covid chat i really agree with this
...and if lockdown doesnt work to bring R down we are well and truly stuffed
...and if lockdown doesnt work to bring R down we are well and truly stuffed
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
I'm amazed they are still fuzzy around whether fever needs to be reduced.
I never have - I just take enough paracetomol / codeine / ibuprofen to relieve pain and it seems to work .
I never have - I just take enough paracetomol / codeine / ibuprofen to relieve pain and it seems to work .
Supine
Newt Member
Paracetamol and Ibuprofen reduce fever
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
I think I mean I lean towards codeine, with ibuprofen for sinus pain.
I always endeavour to keep the dose as low as possible - especially paracetomol cos it's nasty stuff.
It's a pain having to get cocodamol off the pharmacist when I need a lot of it (when I had sciatica and shingles I had to use three different ones) - they used to dish the soluble ones out by the hundred.
prunus
Tick tock.
Why do you think paracetamol is nasty stuff? If you keep to the recommenceded dosage it’s incredibly safe - far safer than aspirin or brufen or indeed codeine.
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