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General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

I'm away from home at the moment. Can't really get stranded here. They'll not shut down all travel everywhere in one go surely?

'Rumours going round' is not very helpful tbh. Any reason to think there's a credible source behind this?
I’m sorry. Maybe shouldn’t have passed on unverified stuff like that. I’m sure everyone will be able to get home . Was just thinking about crowd avoidance.
 
The European model isn’t to stop everyone goring our. It’s to limit going out to buying food or medicine, going to work if needs be and traveling . The French do love a good form to fill in. I bet none of them ever get looked at.
 
How does the UK have 104 deaths and South Korea only 84?

Here in South Korea the govement have been giving adice and infomation from the start of this, are the Tories so inept?

SK had mass testing in place very very quickly.
 
Looking at the difference of population size that looks about equal. Don't know relative average age and health of population but that will be a factor. Unfortunately in the UK we don't really have a particularly healthy population on the whole.

The difference is that SK had a major outbreak a bit earlier, and yet their death rates are slowing... Just 3 recorded today. Or, to use new cases, the UK has +676 cases today (?, possibly yesterday), SK +93 (this even in the context of SK having a far more extensive testing regime). It's very clear if you find the graphs on worldometers.

Take March 8th as an example; SK had more than 7,313 recorded cases, the UK 278. SK has increased by 1100, UK by more than 2000. Obviously those absolute figures don't look too different, but as percentages that's massive. And remember the UK is effectively only picking up serious cases (and maybe contacts with them?) at the moment, whereas SK has tested more than 270,000 people (UK 828 tests/million, SK 5,776 tests/million).
 
Brixton. Stripped clean by panic buying vultures, FFS

In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020


In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020


In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020


 
Just found out Amazon are now paying drivers an extra £2 per hour/£18 per day during this pandemic :)

But - they’re going to review this at the end of April:hmm:
 
Brixton. Stripped clean by panic buying vultures, FFS

In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020


In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020


In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020



Much like our local Sains - the only canned food I did manage to get was some smoked oysters that students wouldn’t buy. Not much point in opening to the elderly first thing tomorrow morning if shelves ain’t stocked overnight.
 
Brixton. Stripped clean by panic buying vultures, FFS

In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020


In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020


In photos: Sainsbury's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020's Brixton Superstore picked clean by panic buying vultures, 18th March 2020



I must say I find some of the panic buying going on in London a bit scary. It epitomises the everyone for themself mentality. Understandable but a bit scary if this gets worse.

I was in Brixton in my off license having a chat this evening. Sainsbury came up.

Said that in the City of London , now no one is there except a few people, I can get stuff from the Tesco / Sainsbury / Boots in the City.
 
I must say I find some of the panic buying going on in London a bit scary. It epitomises the everyone for themself mentality. Understandable but a bit scary if this gets worse.

I was in Brixton in my off license having a chat this evening. Sainsbury came up.

Said that in the City of London , now no one is there except a few people, I can get stuff from the Tesco / Sainsbury / Boots in the City.

Is London a ghost town now?
 
I was chatting to my friend who runs the off license in Brixton about this government help.

He is still open but his takings have gone down 40% on weekend when Brixton, entertainment centre , is busy.

The government scheme to support small business has not been clarified yet. Also it will be administered by local Councils.

He is concerned by the time the bureaucracy gets round to organising it he will find it hard to survive.

Looks to me the measures the government is putting forward are to timid.

Basically the government needs to underwrite all peoples wages and all small business.

At moment a lot of smalll business and precarious workers are potentially going to go under.

So the whole market based ethic is going to have to be put on hold if people are expected to stop work for several months.
 
I was chatting to my friend who runs the off license in Brixton about this government help.

He is still open but his takings have gone down 40% on weekend when Brixton, entertainment centre , is busy.

The government scheme to support small business has not been clarified yet. Also it will be administered by local Councils.

He is concerned by the time the bureaucracy gets round to organising it he will find it hard to survive.

Looks to me the measures the government is putting forward are to timid.

Basically the government needs to underwrite all peoples wages and all small business.

At moment a lot of smalll business and precarious workers are potentially going to go under.

So the whole market based ethic is going to have to be put on hold if people are expected to stop work for several months.

Are you still working mate?
 
I think Gramsci meant The City specifically. Not much residential, and most of the offices there are going to be financial services and the like, probably many now working from home.

This is what is happening.

Im surprised how quickly the big business in the City have organised this. The big legal firms and auditing firms. They are paying people to stay at home.

Whole loads of equipment has been moved out to peoples homes. A massive logistical effort in short space of time.

My delivery firm has been busy this week doing that.

This has all been done without any direction from Boris/ government.

I notice two things in London. Local people starting to automously organsising local support groups and big capitalist business organising home working on a large scale whilst still paying the employees.

So the State response in comparison has been pitiful imo.
 
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This was my route today - normally a route of this size would take my up to around 6.30pm to complete with a 40min drive home - today I completed route at 5.10pm and home by 5.45pm due to the coronavirus majority of people were home and the roads were clear. Felt surreal at times.
 
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The difference is that SK had a major outbreak a bit earlier, and yet their death rates are slowing... Just 3 recorded today. Or, to use new cases, the UK has +676 cases today (?, possibly yesterday), SK +93 (this even in the context of SK having a far more extensive testing regime). It's very clear if you find the graphs on worldometers.

Take March 8th as an example; SK had more than 7,313 recorded cases, the UK 278. SK has increased by 1100, UK by more than 2000. Obviously those absolute figures don't look too different, but as percentages that's massive. And remember the UK is effectively only picking up serious cases (and maybe contacts with them?) at the moment, whereas SK has tested more than 270,000 people (UK 828 tests/million, SK 5,776 tests/million).
Hope we fast get some clarity about how S.K.'s kept her fatalities so low. There's demographic factors -- more infections among younger people and women -- but they don't appear to explain it all. Are they starting supportive treatment earlier? Is there something in their antiviral cocktail? (Maybe administering it earlier to slow viral replication.) Is it a milder strain? Or something else?
 
Hope we fast get some clarity about how S.K.'s kept her fatalities so low. There's demographic factors -- more infections among younger people and women -- but they don't appear to explain it all. Are they starting supportive treatment earlier? Is there something in their antiviral cocktail? (Maybe administering it earlier to slow viral replication.) Is it a milder strain? Or something else?

Yeah no current way for me to know if any of those are factors.

A few other possibilities:

Due to their very different testing & contract tracing regime, their total number of cases may be much, much closer to the actual real number of cases than ours.

If you can avoid spread of the disease in hospitals and other institutional settings it can make a notable different to the number of deaths, and these could really affect the statistics even more obviously early in the outbreak, if for example a lot of the first cases you find are a result of an outbreak that affects people in a care home, a big hospital-related cluster etc.

In this case that latter point so far applies more obviously to South Korea than the UK, making the low number of South Korea deaths even more remarkable. I've found it very hard to keep up with news regarding clusters in different countries recently, which is bad because institutional outbreaks can be a big factor that changes the burden. But at the point where I lost touch with the full South Korea story around 25th Feb, 7 out of the 10 deaths they had recorded at the time were from an outbreak in the mental health ward of a hospital.

And when it comes to the UK on this point, I havent seen much talk of institutional outbreaks at all yet - some hints here and there, but I get the idea I would have to read a lot of local press and read between lines to pick up on these. That might change, eg we have started to hear about individual prisoner/prison officer cases, there is always the fear that one of those will turn into something far more. As for hospitals, I dont feel like we are being provide with much of a picture really. Same with care homes. I dont know what to expect in regards of future reporting on such things.
 
Hope we fast get some clarity about how S.K.'s kept her fatalities so low. There's demographic factors -- more infections among younger people and women -- but they don't appear to explain it all. Are they starting supportive treatment earlier? Is there something in their antiviral cocktail? (Maybe administering it earlier to slow viral replication.) Is it a milder strain? Or something else?

Tbh I think a major component of it is just testing. Many published figures are crude mortality rates, so just deaths/number of people tested positive. That figure is essentially meaningless without a lot of interpretation.
 
So following on from my previous thoughts, in order to understand the burden other countries have faced, we need to understand not just something about the timing of their epidemics, their testing regimes, timing of lockdowns, societal and behavioural differences, demographics, state surveillance etc, but we also need to understand their institutions. For example I know absolutely nothing about care homes in South Korea. And I dont know what their protocols are for testing healthcare workers. These things can be big difference makers.
 
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