bimble
floofy
Most likely the schools and shops reopening will have more impact than this small groups of people meeting outdoors maintaining distancing thing.
General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat
- Thread starter phillm
- Start date
Mogden
I like tea
Sober yes. But in this weather add in alcohol and it'll get messy.
bimble
floofy
Without a doubt. I think they were pretty much forced to announce this tbh, if they are going to go ahead and open shops car dealerships etc it’s just not reasonable to tell families they can’t sit in a park 2m apart from each other (and people are not in the mood to take instruction from these people right now anyhow).
Mogden
I like tea
Exactly. But it's all moving towards the general public taking the blame for a second wave. Undoubtedly there will be eating events between friends and family this weekend. Are they doing disposable cutlery? A wipe of the sauce bottle every time it is passed? A drop of bleach on the chair when a messy kid spits out their burger and it hits their lap and everything else? I don't think I'm being unrealistic about these assumptions but with the amount of gaslighting they've already subjected us to I can see this setup for a fall.
bimble
floofy
We have the worst numbers in the whole world I think I saw recently. Some time in the future an enquiry will find that had they locked down earlier and not allowed massive horse and football events whilst the virus was raging that would not have been the case. I don’t think blaming the public will work anymore tbh, apart from in a very short term way, but maybe I’m having a stray moment of optimism.
Mogden
I like tea
I do have very mild concern that I'm pessimistic rather than realistic, then I snap out of it
I'd rather be overcautious and alive. It's not the fear of death but the fear of missing out on all the cool stuff I still want to do!
prunus
Tick tock.
Remember that key to this is that each of the 6 people still have to remain 2m from each of the other people, and will be outdoors. In such conditions evidence is growing that transmission is unlikely.
However I’ve not seen much emphasising this part of the new rule (though it is part of it), and so, again, communication failure is the great weakness here. Although it’s happening so often it’s starting to look like a feature not a bug.
Mogden
I like tea
We're human and immensely fallible. How many times have you seen someone so distracted by conversation that they've not noticed someone next to them or behind them and done the bump then "Sorry mate". Yes people will be more aware but not a soul will be glued to the spot and I'd put money on them concentrating on distancing from the people they are there with and not others. I know in my garden I'd not get 6 with the distancing. Didn't stop the neighbours filling up their garden this weekend. I just don't trust humans, can you tell
prunus
Tick tock.
We're human and immensely fallible. How many times have you seen someone so distracted by conversation that they've not noticed someone next to them or behind them and done the bump then "Sorry mate". Yes people will be more aware but not a soul will be glued to the spot and I'd put money on them concentrating on distancing from the people they are there with and not others. I know in my garden I'd not get 6 with the distancing. Didn't stop the neighbours filling up their garden this weekend. I just don't trust humans, can you tell
Indeed, this is precisely why it needs to be drummed into us repeatedly. Which it isn’t.
And I’m right with you on the lack of trust.
Not really aware (from festivals
) that there's such a thing as self-sterilising portaloos?And in any case there's the issue of getting people, especially near pubs, to clean their hands properly etc.
Those portaloos would have to be staffed with really well trained** cleaners constantly cleaning them, for that to have any hope of working .....
**and decently paid too! Yeah, right ......
It will lead to a politically indefensible rise in infection numbers
Supine
Newt Member
Not if it's six people who are socially distanced appropriately. Obviously it increases the risk though as it is very difficult to keep to the rules if your passing close to somebody or sharing any objects at your BBQ or whatever.
I dunno. To be fair, groups of 6 (and more) outside have been going on throughout the entire pandemic. Standing in shopping queues, walking on our daily exercise, doing the dog walk, visiting the allotment. And yet, at least in the circles I move, compliance with the 2m rule has been conscientiously implemented...because we are still keeping a semblance of community awareness as well as self-interest. In itself, I don't think it should make much difference... but if going to shops, bars, schools are deemed acceptable, I think the uptick in infection will be very evident. The inside/outside thing is the point of danger, I think...because we tend to act differently when indoors whereas maintaining a reasonable distance outdoors is psychologically easier as well as physically more doable.
But, as usual, the message is deliberately (I think) left vague and ambiguous with the emphasis on numbers rather than circumstances...I have to think this wishy-washy approach is a deliberate distancing and preparation for scapegoating.
But, as usual, the message is deliberately (I think) left vague and ambiguous with the emphasis on numbers rather than circumstances...I have to think this wishy-washy approach is a deliberate distancing and preparation for scapegoating.
Last edited:
Supine
Newt Member
A question I've been wondering about is the average daily death total for things like heart disease and cancer in the UK. Do you have any idea?
The thing I'm struggling with is how to put covid into perspective with diseases that as a society we've grown used to.
Supine
Newt Member
Absolutely not! I'll be staying locked down a lot longer than any gov recommendations.
Although I am working so have been getting used to the social distancing measures which will be around for years and years.
Current estimates are around 137000 infected people. The doubling time at worst has been around 2 days, 5 days mostly. Assuming some degree of social distancing remains after next week, with much reduced social interactivity, let's assume a doubling time of 14 days. Let's reduce to 100000 people.
That means 8 weeks to c1.5 million infections. That's another full lockdown in my understanding.
That means 8 weeks to c1.5 million infections. That's another full lockdown in my understanding.
Supine
Newt Member
Yeah. It's not talked about much but the original Imperial modelling predicted 10-12 lockdowns and relaxations. The politicians are going for relaxing and staying below 1 but that's obviously the optimistic option.
There is a huge wave of cancer, heart disease and similar cases/deaths on the way. The number of diagnosed cases has dropped hugely during this shit and a lot of late diagnosis will follow sadly.
Yes, referrals to the cancer mdt (regional new-case meetings for each cancer type) dropped off a cliff two months ago. Loads of cancers therefore undiagnosed. My respiratory colleagues in my hospital had a backlog of 2500 clinic appointments missed due to the virus.
Chilli.s
mingling jets and statuettes
Neighbor with kids who usually stay with seperated parents now seem to be openly "interpreting the rules" in a way that allows free movement of kids to both separate households. They are richer people will who have been doing this all along but now it's blatant with loads of bags and shouts of bye see you monday.
crossthebreeze
Well-Known Member
Kids have always been allowed to go between separated parents' households during lockdown though (but obviously some families have altered contact arrangements during this time).
COVID-19 guidance for children and families - Cafcass - Children and Family Court Advisory and Support Service
Whilst I am suspicious of speculation there are a few senior doctors I follow online and they are suggesting the deaths from these diseases could rival the COVID-19 death rate
Raheem
Well-Known Member
By comparing stats to other years with no lockdown, I suppose.
It's unlikely that there will have been 60,000 excess suicides up to now.
Last edited:
20Bees
Well-Known Member
Of course - and there will be individuals on the radar for mental health issues but some who may have reacted with uncharacteristic alarm or misery at the prospect or the reality of lockdown. A history of depression coming to a head during this time might be recorded or documented differently from an unexpected dramatic reaction with tragic results.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
Is the virus getting weaker - I do hope so.
mobile.reuters.com
New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says
The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.
mobile.reuters.com
Similar threads
