General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat
- Thread starter phillm
- Start date
Cloo
Banana for scale
It does feel at the moment a bit like we (as in our household) are feeling a little 'Must catch up with everyone and everything before winter' at the moment. I think the government are going to resist a lockdown at all costs, but can't see myself going to the pub for Christmas drinks exactly. But honestly if I could have even one household round at a time this winter that would be 100% improvement on last year. I foresee a lot of 'dinner parties'
'Dry December'** (or at least most of??)
**(At least prior to Xmas Eve/Xmas Day/Bocing Day or whichever, anyway??)
COVID-19: Winter support package expected for 20 local authorities over coronavirus fears
Sky News can reveal that from 22 October, four local authorities including Bolton, Luton, Blackburn with Darwen, and Leicester, will be categorised as areas of "enduring transmission" for COVID and will therefore receive a tailored package to support them until potentially March 2022.
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
What’s special about those places which means their transmission is higher?COVID-19: Winter support package expected for 20 local authorities over coronavirus fears
Sky News can reveal that from 22 October, four local authorities including Bolton, Luton, Blackburn with Darwen, and Leicester, will be categorised as areas of "enduring transmission" for COVID and will therefore receive a tailored package to support them until potentially March 2022.news.sky.com
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
1 in every 500 people in the country.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Lets face it the whole of the UK is a place of enduring transmission, largely due government policyCOVID-19: Winter support package expected for 20 local authorities over coronavirus fears
Sky News can reveal that from 22 October, four local authorities including Bolton, Luton, Blackburn with Darwen, and Leicester, will be categorised as areas of "enduring transmission" for COVID and will therefore receive a tailored package to support them until potentially March 2022.
Yeah but there are some super spreader towns/cities for sure.
Luton is my Covid gig and this week the test centres are getting 8-15% positive tests. That figure is worrying on it's own but bear in mind these are the people who actively come to get tested. Those that do not want to test and most likely are not vaccinated are unknown figures.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Badger, except for a week or so at the beginning of October Wales as a whole hasnt gone below 15% positivity since the middle of August, it hit 20% at the end of August and its currently above 17% and climbing again
Cases 522/100,000 and also climbing again
The gap between the media narrative and what is actually happening is 1984-esque
Cases 522/100,000 and also climbing again
The gap between the media narrative and what is actually happening is 1984-esque
My understanding is these figures do not include:
Anyone who tested positive before
The armed forces
Emergency services
Others?
elbows
Well-Known Member
People testing positive once are only counted once, when they first test positive, yes. Despite the likes of Peston complaining about this months ago, I dont think they have changed it. A weekly report does show some indication of number of probably reinfections, but its relatively feeble data.
The rest are things you have obviously deduced based on your own experience and knowledge, but since I've never found such exemptions listed in the official definition of cases I remain entirely unable to verify such claims. And the authorities would be in trouble with the official stats watchdog if it did turn out to be the case without it being mentioned in the extensive descriptions of methodology used for that data. Didnt you used to have vaccinated people on that list? I'm glad you at least removed that one, since rather large numbers of people who have been vaccinated have clearly been testing positive in recent months and show up in official stats.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Which means I am not entirely ruling out what you are saying, just that I have no means to substantiate it. And its the sort of thing which, if true, I might have expected to come out by now as a result of disgruntled people within the system drawing attention to it in a way that can be probed. Especially if such exemptions amount to very many cases and that data being missing pissed people within the system off.
I suppose other possibilities exist such as those cases still counting, but being sent down a different pathway when it comes to things like contact tracing, and this having caused some confusion if you caught a partial glimpse of that picture but were left with a wrong impression about the resulting data implications. Likewise its also possible that some of the cases you think arent counted are counted in the overall national headline figures figures but might be placed differently when it comes to pillar or test centre or location.
For England we do know that a current weakness of the data stems from the issue with people testing positive via LFTs but negative on PCRs - their LFT positive will be added to the case numbers but will subsequently be removed if the PCR comes back negative.
I suppose other possibilities exist such as those cases still counting, but being sent down a different pathway when it comes to things like contact tracing, and this having caused some confusion if you caught a partial glimpse of that picture but were left with a wrong impression about the resulting data implications. Likewise its also possible that some of the cases you think arent counted are counted in the overall national headline figures figures but might be placed differently when it comes to pillar or test centre or location.
For England we do know that a current weakness of the data stems from the issue with people testing positive via LFTs but negative on PCRs - their LFT positive will be added to the case numbers but will subsequently be removed if the PCR comes back negative.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Well you know me, I'd need to pick over the detail of exactly what was said in order to get tot he bottom of it, and thats not going to happen if its not been published.
I have now found some UK armed forces data for number fo tests and positive tests. It doesnt sound like the system is special, they are reliant on personnel reporting positive cases to the relevant medical military entity in order for their numbers to show up in this particular report. Which if anything suggests the main system doesnt have the ability to identify military cases specifically, which would make it hard for authorities to treat them differently in the data.
www.gov.uk
I have now found some UK armed forces data for number fo tests and positive tests. It doesnt sound like the system is special, they are reliant on personnel reporting positive cases to the relevant medical military entity in order for their numbers to show up in this particular report. Which if anything suggests the main system doesnt have the ability to identify military cases specifically, which would make it hard for authorities to treat them differently in the data.
Number of COVID-19 tests in defence and positive cases in the UK Armed Forces 2021
Summary statistics on the number of defence personnel who have had a COVID-19 test; and for the UK Armed Forces, the number of positive cases of COVID-19.
My last update meeting with PHE they said that. I have no idea if it has changed but it was the case since at least 'freedom day' and possibly before.
elbows
Well-Known Member
By the way, just to give a vague idea about the scale of reinfection, using up to the end of August 2021 they have identified about 45,000 possible reinfections, based on at least 90 days gap between positive tests. This data is only updated once a month in the weekly surveillance reports I use as the source of this info ( National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2021 to 2022 season ). For comparison, in the previous set of data going up to the end of July 2021, the figure they had was around 35,000, so we can assume that they found about 10,000 such cases in August, and so thats the sort of figure thats missing from Augusts positive case totals. I will post about this again when the next set of data is available (in a weeks time if they stay on schedule). These numbers are for England only.
Also quite a lot of reinfections wont be classified as such and so will still show up in the normal daily data. Because they wont be classified as reinfections if the person was infected previously but didnt have access to testing the first time around. Given the lack of testing in the first wave, this probably applies to quite a lot of people.
Also quite a lot of reinfections wont be classified as such and so will still show up in the normal daily data. Because they wont be classified as reinfections if the person was infected previously but didnt have access to testing the first time around. Given the lack of testing in the first wave, this probably applies to quite a lot of people.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah bad numbers, not that the numbers were previously good. I'm not looking forward to drilling down into recent cases by age group again, but I will either today or tomorrow in the main UK thread.
Just to finish off what I was saying about reinfection numbers, the scale of them is probably also why they've not faced too much pressure to change the system to include reinfected cases in the headline case numbers. Because as I was saying it looks like they found about 10,000 reinfections in August in England, compared to a total number of positive cases (excluding reinfections) of 784,640 for England in the same period. So this undercounting is not going to make a huge difference to the huge overall totals.
Just to finish off what I was saying about reinfection numbers, the scale of them is probably also why they've not faced too much pressure to change the system to include reinfected cases in the headline case numbers. Because as I was saying it looks like they found about 10,000 reinfections in August in England, compared to a total number of positive cases (excluding reinfections) of 784,640 for England in the same period. So this undercounting is not going to make a huge difference to the huge overall totals.
prunus
Tick tock.
I see. I’d always assumed (never assume!) that that meant they would only count 1 test per person per infection - eg one would expect a person with covid in hospital to be tested daily(?), or at least certainly repeatedly, and it makes sense not to count these as ‘cases’. But the idea that a positive test in June 2020 means a positive test in October 2021 is not a new case makes no sense. (I note your figures above that show it’s unlikely to be that significant - even so).
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah I'm not attempting to justify their narrow case definition that ends up excluding reinfected cases from the main figures, I'm just trying to explain it and get some sense of the magnitude. I would have changed it long ago if I were in charge, to avoid bringing the system into further disrepute.
Meanwhile in regards todays case figures and concerns for the future, I've switched back to the main UK thread eg #42,494
Meanwhile in regards todays case figures and concerns for the future, I've switched back to the main UK thread eg #42,494
To confirm the above, my recent (extensive!
) inpatient experiences tell me that I was tested (PCR 
) twice a week throughout both hospital stays. Not daily then, but re-assuringly often, definitely! As well as on the day of my first (A & E) admission, on Friday 17th July, the testing days both in Guy's, and after being transferred back to Swansea, were Wednesdays and Saturdays.
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existentialist
Tired and unemotional
If this virus is any cop at all, it'll evolve a variant which doesn't show up in testing on Wednesdays and SaturdaysTo confirm the above, my recent (extensive!
As well as on the day of my first (A & E) admission, on Friday 17th July, the testing days both in Guys, and after being transferred back to Swansea, were Wednesdays and Saturdays.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Looks like a similar picture in Wales - our numbers are up at December 2020 levels at the moment, and apparently show little sign of falling away (colleague with partner who works at local district hospital - currently has 44 Covid cases, occupying 2 wards).Covid cases in England are nearing levels seen at the peak of the second wave
upday.com
f7td5.app.goo.gl
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its been a wave since back then. I've been calling it the third wave because the autumn/winter waves were merged together so I just called those wave 2 collectively, but some people consider those to have been waves 2 and 3 so the one that started this summer would be wave 4 in their book. Whether they will classify this latest phase of the current wave as a distinct wave I wouldnt like to guess. I probably wont be, since this is all part of the wave that began when Delta really got going here and I dont think the number of infections fell to a low enough level since the July peak that I could have begun to consider that wave to be ending, and for whats happening now to count as a new one.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And if I sound a bit tetchy when discussing this wave and the recent turn of events compared to how its been for months already, Im not pissed off with anyone here specifically. But I am more than dismayed with how perceptions more broadly (including in the press) shifted once we were no longer dealing with continual increases in numbers.
I mean for example I just posted latest version of hospital admissions by age graphs, and they show a worsening picture but its not like the picture was good even before the increases this month. #42,511
My only consolation is that whats happened in recent months is a thumb in the eye to the idiots who refused to believe that lockdowns and various other measures and changes to behaviour were responsible for the continual declines seen after the peaks of the previous waves. Declines we havent been treated to this time around. When people were tempted to feel like their actions were pointless in previous waves, I can at least point to whats happened this time as an illustration of what failure really looks like in that particular respect.
edit - oh and on that sort of theme I just found this:
www.theguardian.com
I mean for example I just posted latest version of hospital admissions by age graphs, and they show a worsening picture but its not like the picture was good even before the increases this month. #42,511
My only consolation is that whats happened in recent months is a thumb in the eye to the idiots who refused to believe that lockdowns and various other measures and changes to behaviour were responsible for the continual declines seen after the peaks of the previous waves. Declines we havent been treated to this time around. When people were tempted to feel like their actions were pointless in previous waves, I can at least point to whats happened this time as an illustration of what failure really looks like in that particular respect.
edit - oh and on that sort of theme I just found this:
Why Britons are tolerating sky-high Covid rates – and why this may not last
Analysis: as Covid cases reach 40,000 a day, scientists think normalisation is partly to blame for the lack of public reaction
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