Galloway returns to Parliament in sensational win in Bradford West - Labour/Coalition smashed

[articul8]

Who said they were? What is wrong with you? What lessons? For who?

Even Galloway has an eye on changing the Labour party - that is still a strategically central project unless you can plausibly suggest that it's possible to build a genuine electoral alternative on a national or semi-national basis.

 

[belboid]

Quite robust in an aggressive interview on Sky at the mo

I always forget, till I have to watch it for any length of time, just how vile Sky is. All last night was 'queues at petrol pumps to beat the strike' - despite there not actually being any bloody strike.

 

[butchersapron]

You can do all those things - and it might have some effect. But unless you're in a position to mobilise some alternative then a Labour vote is still going to be the only way of punishing the Tories and LDs for those in England. Now, how does GGs win make this more likely outside of areas with similar demographics?

For gods sake, the lessons are in how mobilising local/community support against labour incumbents can be effective, that a labour vote is not to be so arrogantly assumed to be yours forever (that attitude you also display), and that people do care about issues and are prepared to (maybe in minimal ways, maybe not) act on them despite traditional loyalties if approached properly. You manage to turn this into vote labour - we're not the tories? Fucking hell.

 

[butchersapron]

Even Galloway has an eye on changing the Labour party - that is still a strategically central project unless you can plausibly suggest that it's possible to build a genuine electoral alternative on a national or semi-national basis.

Even Galloway, the labour party member for 40 years and former labour party MP wants to change the party that expelled him and kicked off war he made it his mission to oppose? Even he wants labour to change? Blimey. I must now vote and join labour then after this revelation.

 

[butchersapron]

Even Galloway has an eye on changing the Labour party - that is still a strategically central project unless you can plausibly suggest that it's possible to build a genuine electoral alternative on a national or semi-national basis.

It's not possible without challenging labour that's for bloody sure.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You can do all those things - and it might have some effect. But unless you're in a position to mobilise some alternative then a Labour vote is still going to be the only way of punishing the Tories and LDs for those in England. Now, how does GGs win make this more likely outside of areas with similar demographics?

What is the point in getting rid of the tories if what you get is New Labour? Better to spoil your ballot paper, imo.

There is another way to look at this, which is that if you vote for Labour, you show the tories that you're not really all that opposed to what they are doing.

 

[butchersapron]

GG stormed out of interview with C4 news (the 7 version).

 

[treelover]

He is about to do a victory tour around Bradford, he is not going to be a shrinking violet..

btw postal votes, are they concentrated in certain areas, demographics, etc? is so, what are the reasons, it is important...

 

[belboid]

aah, and yet another making pathetically racist innuendo

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's irrelevant anyway. He won by something of a landslide. It wasn't postal votes wot won it.

Also, if it is true that he got something like 3/4 of the Muslim vote, that means he must have got at least 40 percent of the non-Muslim vote. It wasn't even the Muslims wot won it for him.

 

[two sheds]

GG stormed out of interview with C4 news (the 7 version).

They asked him whether he composed his music in the shed again

 

[butchersapron]

It's irrelevant anyway. He won by something of a landslide. It wasn't postal votes wot won it.

Also, if it is true that he got something like 3/4 of the Muslim vote, that means he must have got at least 40 percent of the non-Muslim vote. It wasn't even the Muslims wot won it for him.

That depends on who turned out.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That depends on who turned out.

Conservative estimate based on the fact that Muslims are about 36% of the electorate. Assuming they turned out in significantly greater numbers, they might have been perhaps 50% of the vote. That would give Galloway 35% or so of the non-Muslim vote, based on big assumptions - hard to see how he got less than that, and quite probably got more.

 

[butchersapron]

38% i think and significantly greater numbers would surely push well past 50%

 

[treelover]

aah, and yet another making pathetically racist innuendo

appalling comment

I ask it because i would like evidence one way or the other, I don't want whole groups voting on the say so of family heads, etc, in fact i think its great that young women in bradford are refusing to kow tow to them, I've heard this is now happening in other cities, emancipation is great...;

 

[Citizen66]

Whenever the bnp are doing well (for the bnp) folk on here say it can yank the mainstream parties to the right. Can the opposite then be true with a respect win?

 

[belboid]

even if he did only get muslim votes (and LABOUR were saying last night that that wasn't the case by a long chalk), the fact that they would have had to get 67% of ALL muslims would be quite astounding

 

[belboid]

appalling comment

yes, yours was. I expect agricola, cobbles and JHE to come out with that racist rubbish, and to pathetically then backtrack and go 'ooh, its not me saying that,I'm only asking/reporting.' Leaping to assumptions to support their own racism

 

[treelover]

'The big question now is whether what happened was a one off, arising from an unrepeatable combination of the right candidate in the right constituency at the right time, or something that is generalisable.It is too early to give a definitive answer. Sociologically speaking, there are numerous Bradford Wests that Labour has taken for granted far too long. But there are a limited supply of candidates with the charisma and profile evidently possessed by Galloway, and a limited supply of by-elections in which they can compete.
Last night’s outcome does not offer proof that a run of the mill leftwing activist, backed largely by Trotskyist groupings and a few trade unions, could repeat the performance. It does not disprove the contention, either.

The sight of those who fell out so badly during the Respect split of five years ago kissing and making up will be amusing for the rest of us to behold. But the prospect of two, three, many Bradford Wests emerging from the next general election still seems something of a long shot.'

http://www.davidosler.com/2012/03/bradford-west-one-off-or-turning-point/#more-4113

Anyway, on Dave Oslers blog, not another realignment of the far left, count me out this time...

 

[butchersapron]

Whenever the bnp are doing well (for the bnp) folk on here say it can yank the mainstream parties to the right. Can the opposite then be true with a respect win?

No, the best it can do is make people aware that the options are not simply tory/labour. The frame is firmly fixed now - this has no impact on the frame at all. It'll be viewed as special local conditions - see articul8's hackery on this already.

 

[chilango]

appalling comment

I ask it because i would like evidence one way or the other, I don't want whole groups voting on the say so of family heads, etc, in fact i think its great that young women in bradford are refusing to kow tow to them, I've heard this is now happening in other cities, emancipation is great...;

Hmmmm....

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Alright, call it 40% for ease. If all of those turned out, that would mean just 10/60 non-Muslims turned out. If he did get 75% of the Muslim vote, that would give him 30/50 of the vote just from that, so 60%, roughly what he did get. So a 100% Muslim turnout would give Galloway all the votes he got. So I suppose we should wait to see what the Muslim turnout was - if such a thing is measured. If it was up over 80%, then that would mean he didn't receive that many votes from elsewhere. If it's under 70%, then he did. A 25% non-Muslim turnout would mean a 75% Muslim turnout, btw. But I would suspect that this being a by-election rather than a local election would mean a slightly higher than 25% turnout - even that gives Galloway 1/3 of the non-Muslim vote, though.

/stats nerd

 

[chilango]

"The Muslim vote" ? C'mon people...you should know better than this.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

"The Muslim vote" ? C'mon people...you should know better than this.

It is something both Labour and Galloway thought was important. But this result does show that even on conservative estimates, a lot of people voted for Galloway across the divide. And it is a divide in places like Bradford. It's stupid to deny this.

 

[Citizen66]

"The Muslim vote" ? C'mon people...you should know better than this.

Well it isn't completely divorced from it. Bethnal Green and now Bradford? Both areas with large Muslim communities.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

I'm not clear on the degree to which imaginary sky-pixies were involved in this result.

Do we know if that alleged Galloway flyer with a bunch of God nonsense in it was real or fake yet?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's not a question of sky pixies. It's a question of pretty separate communities with agendas that are also to a certain degree separate. It would appear that local government cronyism, which the Labour candidate personified, was a particular issue for the Muslim community (and in the case of somewhere like Bradford, I think it is legitimate to talk of a separate Muslim community).

(Call it 'Pakistani community' if you prefer, or even 'Kashmiri community'.)

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't think salma yaqoob or any other ruc candidate could repeat galloway's succrss; what limits the ruc like what limits the bnp - even if people want to support them - is the lack of credible candidates. Who else is in the ruc? There was, as well as the reaction against tory/lib dem policies a sizeable personal vote in bradford.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I don't think salma yaqoob or any other ruc candidate could repeat galloway's succrss; what limits the ruc like what limits the bnp - even if people want to support them - is the lack of credible candidates. Who else is in the ruc? There was, as well as the reaction against tory/lib dem policies a sizeable personal vote in bradford.

Salma Yaqoob does have a profile in the city and ime generally comes over well in the local media. She got a decent vote in the last GE too. Other than that agree entirely with this and what Treelover posted above.

But the result does make another leftie realignment inevitable as they seek the magic formula of credibility via magic rather than hard graft.

 

[butchersapron]

Leftist-alchemists