You can definitely see him strike out with the baton there, picture is too small for me to be sure whether he makes contact or not and if so just where ...
The baton is chambered on his left shoulder and looking at both the new and old footage it's clear that he's trying to strike somewhere between mid thigh and knee (i.e. he's trying to give him a 'dead leg' plus the probability of painful muscle cramps for weeks afterwards), with potential for contact on both the outside of the left leg and the back of either leg, which have vulnerable nerve bundles and inner right thigh which also has the largest artery in the body, the femoral. If he is making contact, it's probably with just the tip of the baton. It's clear from the way the officers body is moving that he's got considerable force behind the blow. My guess would be that he either missed or just clipped him with the tip of the baton, then turns the follow through into a lunge forwards to shoulder Mr Tomlinson down.
I'm not sure whether he does make contact at all. Mr Tomlinson appears to flinch but doesn't jerk as the blow lands or immediately show any effects. It's absolutely clear to me though that the officer's intention is to give him a hard fall, either by whacking him in a 'dead leg' spot, or by charging him down or both. Particularly given that he has his hands in his pockets and is already looking quite shaky for whatever prior reason ...