Finland & Sweden, and NATO membership.

[2hats]

The Topols are mobile and can be launched from anywhere. The submarines are also permanently out and about with live nukes (like the UK ones). Not sure how the Russian silos work but the US ones are in a permanent state of readiness. They were designed with solid fuel tanks to minimise maintenance. Warheads need to be kept 'fresh' but it's a six year cycle and stuff should be being refreshed and replaced on a regular basis.

Topols use solid motors but SS18 are hypergolic. Russian SLBMs use hypergolics in at least one, some all, stages.

Some elements of warhead designs don't age well, whilst others are probably stable for decades. The physics package service lifetime very likely depends on how highly optimised it is for yield-to-mass (note: the Russian missiles tend to have the greater throw weights).

 

[strung out]

Erdogan threatening to block Sweden and Finland's entry to NATO



Suspect some F16s might need to change hands in order to get them to suddenly change their minds...

 

[bcuster]

I like the cut of PM Marin's jib:

EXPLAINER: Why Finland, Sweden joining NATO will be big deal

Finland appears on the cusp of joining NATO. Sweden could follow suit. By year's end, they could stand among the alliance's ranks.

apnews.com

 

[agricola]

Erdogan threatening to block Sweden and Finland's entry to NATO



Suspect some F16s might need to change hands in order to get them to suddenly change their minds...

I doubt it - getting back in the F35 deal perhaps, but even then this might be him trying to prevent an escalation.

 

[Dogsauce]

Hawkish ex military types on Twitter are reckoning as few as 25% of Russian warheads will work. That's 400 nukes. No thanks.

Where is the 401st least strategically important European city/town and what is it like to live there? Asking for a friend.

 

[cupid_stunt]

As expected...

Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats backs country joining Nato​

Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats said on Sunday that they backed the country joining Nato, abandoning decades of opposition in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and creating a large parliament majority in favour of membership.

“The party board has at its meeting on May 15, 2022 decided that the party will work toward Sweden applying for membership in NATO,” the Social Democrats said in a statement.
With Finland already set to hand in its application, Sweden’s prime minister Magdalena Andersson is now all but certain to launch a formal application within days, Reuters reports. LINK

 

[Elpenor]

Where is the 401st least strategically important European city/town and what is it like to live there? Asking for a friend.

And also isn’t generally affected by prevailing wind patterns from the other 400?

 

[Cid]

Reckon somewhere in Spain. Seville maybe. Or Leon if you fancy the north.

 

[MickiQ]

I suspect the Canary Islands or the Balearics are pretty low on the Russian target list. I've been to both Majorca and Minorca and the second one especially is really nice.

 

[yield]

South of Spain or North of Norway.

 

[spitfire]

Multiple Twitter threads here from a guy outlining exactly how much the potential joining of NATO fucks Russia over. I found them really interesting and highlighted some of the implications I hadn't thought of. The Baltic sub corridor, the single highway to the Kola peninsula, a real weak point (thread 3)

Spoiler: Mappy thread

Spoiler: Baltic thread

Spoiler: Cola peninsula thread

 

[existentialist]

What would you suggest would be a proper defence programme?

Beyond your suggestion of a fresh print run of Protect and Survive.

Which was itself a pretty meaningless exercise in Making It Look As If We Have A Plan.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Multiple Twitter threads here from a guy outlining exactly how much the potential joining of NATO fucks Russia over. I found them really interesting and highlighted some of the implications I hadn't thought of. The Baltic sub corridor, the single highway to the Kola peninsula, a real weak point (thread 3)

Spoiler: Mappy thread

Spoiler: Baltic thread

Spoiler: Cola peninsula thread

Interesting tweets. One thing which does occur to me is to compare this situation with WW1 and the Maginot Line. France back then fortified it's border with Germany, but didn't bother doing the same with neutral Belgium. So Germany attacked through Belgium. Does anyone seriously think that in the event of a war between nato and Russia that nato would necessarily observe Finnish neutrality? Also, if the Kola peninsular is so vulnerable in its land links with the rest of Russia you could smash the road and rail with saturation bombing if you had air access.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Yep. Spheres of influence, Russia being a top player in global politics etc.

Obviously no one since Hitler has thought invading Russia a remotely sensible thing to do....

Well mebbes Georgia but they were easily led into and subsequently stitched up by Russia in the first place - the status of Russian backed separatist enclaves in what Russia calls the near abroad does add to the mix

 

[Pickman's model]

Interesting tweets. One thing which does occur to me is to compare this situation with WW1 and the Maginot Line. France back then fortified it's border with Germany, but didn't bother doing the same with neutral Belgium. So Germany attacked through Belgium. Does anyone seriously think that in the event of a war between nato and Russia that nato would necessarily observe Finnish neutrality? Also, if the Kola peninsular is so vulnerable in its land links with the rest of Russia you could smash the road and rail with saturation bombing if you had air access.

the french did have a little maginot line in the south, along the border with italy - there's part of it at the small village of ste agnes above menton

it saw action against the italians in 1940

Ouvrage Sainte-Agnès - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Pickman's model]

Interesting tweets. One thing which does occur to me is to compare this situation with WW1 and the Maginot Line. France back then fortified it's border with Germany, but didn't bother doing the same with neutral Belgium. So Germany attacked through Belgium. Does anyone seriously think that in the event of a war between nato and Russia that nato would necessarily observe Finnish neutrality? Also, if the Kola peninsular is so vulnerable in its land links with the rest of Russia you could smash the road and rail with saturation bombing if you had air access.

that's all well and good in the summer. but as soon as things get cold up there i suspect it'll be easier to move things as they do in siberia, along rivers which when frozen become winter roads.

at other times you can enjoy a winter driving holiday there SUV Winter Adventure "Ice Roads Arctic Russia" (7 Days) on Kola Peninsula, something i think Spymaster would like

 

[not-bono-ever]

Good fishing on the peninsula. Too many bears for campo tho

 

[gosub]

Why Turkey doesn’t want Finland and Sweden to join NATO and why it matters​

archive.ph

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sweden has just confirmed that they are officially applying to join NATO

 

[cupid_stunt]

Joining the UK & US...

Norway, Denmark and Iceland have issued a joint statement offering their support to Finland and Sweden in case the two Nordic nations were to come under attack during their Nato applications.

Norways prime minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said: 'Together with Denmark and Iceland, Norway stands ready to assist its Nordic neighbours by all means necessary should they be the victim of aggression on their territory before obtaining Nato membership.' LINK

 

[Pickman's model]

Joining the UK & US...

boris johnson will utter warm words but i doubt there'll be so much left in the british arsenal for sweden and finland now it's broadly been emptied to hand over to ukraine

 

[MrCurry]

Joining the UK & US...

Seems Germany and France are also part of the party, according to Aftonbladet today, quoting Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson:

“We have received security guarantees from among others Usa, U.K., Germany, France and our neighbouring countries”

 

[Cid]

Erdogan seems to have issued a definitive nope.

Erdogan says Swedish, Finnish delegations should not bother coming to…

archived 16 May 2022 17:44:49 UTC

archive.ph

Can't imagine the US are particularly impressed at the moment, there are probably some interesting phone calls going on.

 

[gosub]

Erdogan seems to have issued a definitive nope.

Erdogan says Swedish, Finnish delegations should not bother coming to…

archived 16 May 2022 17:44:49 UTC

archive.ph

Can't imagine the US are particularly impressed at the moment, there are probably some interesting phone calls going on.

Probably not the clarity Mr Biden was aiming for

 

[MrCurry]

But is this just a shakedown? Is he looking for a pay off from the US - some weapon system they’re keeping back from him…? Wasn’t there that whole dust up over missile systems Turkey was threatening to buy from Russia a few years ago... similar scenario perhaps where Erdogan saw he could get leverage over the US.

This time he apparently made reassuring noises when consulted by the Finns ahead of their announcement (according to the Finnish president in below clip), then as soon as they formalise their decision, at the moment of maximum leverage, Turkey flips position.



Smells like a shakedown to me, which means it’ll probably get resolved.

 

[souljacker]

Erdogan seems to have issued a definitive nope.

Erdogan says Swedish, Finnish delegations should not bother coming to…

archived 16 May 2022 17:44:49 UTC

archive.ph

Can't imagine the US are particularly impressed at the moment, there are probably some interesting phone calls going on.

When erdogan says no to something, that's usually a pretty clear sign you are doing the right thing lol.

 

[Pickman's model]

But is this just a shakedown? Is he looking for a pay off from the US - some weapon system they’re keeping back from him…? Wasn’t there that whole dust up over missile systems Turkey was threatening to buy from Russia a few years ago... similar scenario perhaps where Erdogan saw he could get leverage over the US.

This time he apparently made reassuring noises when consulted by the Finns ahead of their announcement (according to the Finnish president in below clip), then as soon as they formalise their decision, at the moment of maximum leverage, Turkey flips position.



Smells like a shakedown to me, which means it’ll probably get resolved.

I thought it was to do with Kurds in Scandinavia Turkey, NATO, and the Ukraine war: Why Erdogan’s grievances are about more than Sweden and Finland

 

[gosub]

I thought it was to do with Kurds in Scandinavia

Yep and they flagged it before the weekend, and made Washington Post this morning doesn't look like Edrogen was in the mood to be finessed.

 

[MrCurry]

I thought it was to do with Kurds in Scandinavia Turkey, NATO, and the Ukraine war: Why Erdogan’s grievances are about more than Sweden and Finland

Yes, that’s what he’s citing. Whether that’s really the full extent of it or just a convenient figleaf, who knows.

 

[Aladdin]

that's all well and good in the summer. but as soon as things get cold up there i suspect it'll be easier to move things as they do in siberia, along rivers which when frozen become winter roads.

at other times you can enjoy a winter driving holiday there SUV Winter Adventure "Ice Roads Arctic Russia" (7 Days) on Kola Peninsula, something i think Spymaster would like

I'd love that..