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Donald Trump, the road that might not lead to the White House!

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For context, Rubio has been fighting rumours that he is gay which is something he denies vigorously and yet he still chose to pose with that sign...
 
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I think those numbers might change after the next week or two, if and when Clinton and Trump become the presumptive nominees.

The story of this election so far on both the Democratic and Republican sides has been many voters rebelling against corporate-financed candidates and opting for either Sanders or Trump. If Clinton and Trump wrap up their respective nominations this week, they'll have nothing to do but sling mud at each other between now and November.

Trump seems almost bulletproof in the way that his messy personal and business lives make little impact with voters, and in how he successfully claims not to be owned by big business, whereas Clinton is in the pocket of multiple corporations - and voters are going to get very tired very soon of hearing about Whitewater, Monica Lewinsky, and Benghazi emails once again.

Six months ago, I would have said Trump had zero chance of becoming president, but it now seems like the Democrats are going to have to work very hard indeed with ground organization in swing states etc. to have any chance of beating him.
 
Six months ago, I would have said Trump had zero chance of becoming president, but it now seems like the Democrats are going to have to work very hard indeed with ground organization in swing states etc. to have any chance of beating him.

It is that email server thing that should really be giving them sleepless nights.
 
It is that email server thing that should really be giving them sleepless nights.

Seems to me like nobody outside very committed Republicans really gives a shit about the email server thing. It's been hammered into the ground for quite a while now, and it would take some serious revelations for it to become an issue again.
 
That is no doubt what she would like to be the case, but its still going on.

Yep, it's still going on, but I can't imagine it being a game-changer at this point - every issue arising from it was dealt with long ago, for opponents to keep going on about will just make it look like Clinton is being victimized - I think Sanders recognized that early on,when he told a debate crowd that nobody cares about her "damn emails."
 
http://nypost.com/2016/02/28/hillary-could-lose-to-trump-in-democratic-new-york/


Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner’s support grows to the point of being “surprisingly strong,” The Post has learned.

Most of the polling didn’t address the possibility that former Mayor Michael Bloomberg would run as an independent, but some of it did — and found the former mayor took “significant’’ votes away from Clinton in heavily Democratic New York City and the surrounding suburbs, a source familiar with the data said.

The new polls, a second source said, showed Trump’s support, even without Bloomberg in the race, was “surprisingly strong’’ in Westchester and on Long Island, the key suburbs often viewed as crucial swing bellwethers on how statewide elections will turn out.

The polls found that Clinton often had higher negative ratings with voters than did the more controversial Trump, whose inflammatory pronouncements have often angered and even horrified many of his fellow Republicans.

“In the suburbs and upstate, Trump has a net positive while Hillary is a net negative,” one longtime Republican operative contended. “She’s more of a liability than many Democrats realized.”
 
Six months ago, I would have said Trump had zero chance of becoming president, but it now seems like the Democrats are going to have to work very hard indeed with ground organization in swing states etc. to have any chance of beating him.

Clinton is still the favorite and several % ahead of trump in head to head polls but the guy does seem to be very good at marketing, I'd expect him to completely change his various rants if he gets the nomination in an attempt to grab swing voters (I'll bet he'll also start accepting larger donations and repay himself the loans he lent his own 'self funded' campaign)
 
Polls schmolls. Trump may win the Repub nomination because bugger all people apart from weirdos vote in it. But the US which voted for Obama twice is now going to vote in Trump? Even the left of the Republican voter base hate him.
If Trump become president of the US I will pay everyone in the world fifty gazillion fadoolies. And that is a promise.
 
So Trump's a traitor to the Nostalgia IRA then?

More like Trump will court any community/creed/political side if he thinks it will suit his purpose.

IIRC he did court NI loyalists when he threatened to take his golf resort to Antrim instead of Aberdeen.
 
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Polls schmolls. Trump may win the Repub nomination because bugger all people apart from weirdos vote in it. But the US which voted for Obama twice is now going to vote in Trump? Even the left of the Republican voter base hate him.
If Trump become president of the US I will pay everyone in the world fifty gazillion fadoolies. And that is a promise.
Hillary has her haters too. Hilary Trump and turns into hold your nose and sledge the other side as hard as you can.

Talking to an expat Republican who has been in the states all month, and that what's he was up to, til he noticed the jaw dropping over that meant he was boosting for Trump. Obviously in the states, that wasn't such an incredulous thing to do now
 
The latest bookies' odds show a rough chance of 20% of that happening (Trump winning). Clinton's is 50%, Rubio 20% & Sanders 10%. I haven't bothered showing the others for simplicity as they're less than 5% & I can't be arsed.

That also suggests 60% chance of Democrats/40% for Republicans winning. You can search under presidential odds, but remember, gambling is bad kids!

The above was as at 21/2/16.

The latest inferred representative chance of candidates winning, from a major bookie today is:
Clinton 56%, Trump 29%,Rubio 5%, Sanders 3%, Cruz 2%,Bloomberg 2%, Kasisch 2% & Joe Biden 1%.
 


He is already tacking to the centre on immigration and emphasising economic populism, if he continues along that line it will be interesting to see whether 1) his core support holds 2) his general election polling goes up

I think that both may well happen.

I am starting to revise my view that Clinton is absolutely inevitable against Trump in a general election.
 
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