Donald Trump the road that might not lead to the White House - Redux 2024 thread.

[Coffeecup]

 

[story]

There're always people that are undecided, some even until up to the day, the polls reflects that, it happens in the UK too, I've known people that have only made a final decision when they are in the polling booth, with the ballot paper in front of them, it seems weird to me, but it happens.

But mate, this is the wrong lens I mentioned.

 

[story]

I hope Harris will win.
I think she probably will.

It's still possible that Trump could win.

 

[cupid_stunt]

But mate, this is the wrong lense I mentioned.

You said -

Anyone who thinks this election is being fought over policies is looking at it through the wrong lense.

I am not arguing with that, but some people don't even pay attention to policies, and end-up voting by gut-feeling.

 

[Coffeecup]

But how can anyone truly be "undecided"?

Trump is a disaster. Everyone outside MAGA knows that.

Those who are wavering on their vote are people who don't want to vote for a Black Democrat woman but feel uncomfortable putting Trump back into the driving seat.

It really is possible they they'll either not vote, or vote for him.

Anyone who thinks this election is being fought over policies is looking at it through the wrong lense.


Of course Harris won the debate last night. But Trump voters aren't evaluating the debate, they're evaluating a set of matrices that too many people either don't see, aren't aware of, or dismiss.

There are always people who are undecided as new voters become adults and have the right to vote.

There are also those who take no heed in politics until they settle down and have a mortgage and or start a family. A lot of these people will vote on policies. The fact Trump lost the last election shows he’s not guaranteed a win. The big hype by Trump is getting so boring with nothing new has commenters saying he’s losing some of his base.

 

[Coffeecup]

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Haven’t seen the debate yet, but from the analysis I've read it seems like Harris did a great job of baiting and distracting Trump. Apparently in areas where Trump has higher approval than Harris (on immigration and inflation), the digs she made at him threw him off track and instead of discussing these issues he instead started boasting about his crowd sizes. His narcissism is so extreme that he just can't help himself!

 

[Wilf]

I hope Harris will win.
I think she probably will.

It's still possible that Trump could win.

Yes, the same. I've only seen clips of the debate, but it's clear Harris performed better without managing to provoke a full meltdown. However, I'd be surprised if the polls - which, iirc, have drifted back towards Trump a bit (to something like equal) - are that much affected. Maybe a bit and a bit is all that she needs, but this is still wide open.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

But how can anyone truly be "undecided"?

Trump is a disaster. Everyone outside MAGA knows that.

Those who are wavering on their vote are people who don't want to vote for a Black Democrat woman but feel uncomfortable putting Trump back into the driving seat.

It really is possible they they'll either not vote, or vote for him.

Anyone who thinks this election is being fought over policies is looking at it through the wrong lense.


Of course Harris won the debate last night. But Trump voters aren't evaluating the debate, they're evaluating a set of matrices that too many people either don't see, aren't aware of, or dismiss.

There are 50m+ who would vote Trump even if he'd walked onto the stage and taken a literal shit. Ditto 50m+ who vote Harris if she'd done the same. But there genuinely are undecided voters out there.

A registered Republican, conservative in the traditional sense. Not one of his family have ever voted Democrat. But, he doesn't like Trump - he's not a small c conservative, he's not from the same stable as McCain, Bush, Reagan. There's virtually no chance of this guy ever voting Dem, but there is a tipping point where his lack of enthusiasm for Trump outweighs his love of party and/or hatred of the opponents, and the lense through which he is viewing this election will decide whether he casts a Republican vote or stays at home.

Every single voter is somewhere on the spectrum from 10/10 Trump to 10/10 Harris. Millions of those are somewhere close to their own personal tipping points, and every time the needle moves - like for example, after one candidate has a successful, high profile TV debate - it puts another few thousand into play.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

 

[story]

There are 50m+ who would vote Trump even if he'd walked onto the stage and taken a literal shit. Ditto 50m+ who vote Harris if she'd done the same. But there genuinely are undecided voters out there.

A registered Republican, conservative in the traditional sense. Not one of his family have ever voted Democrat. But, he doesn't like Trump - he's not a small c conservative, he's not from the same stable as McCain, Bush, Reagan. There's virtually no chance of this guy ever voting Dem, but there is a tipping point where his lack of enthusiasm for Trump outweighs his love of party and/or hatred of the opponents, and the lense through which he is viewing this election will decide whether he casts a Republican vote or stays at home.

Every single voter is somewhere on the spectrum from 10/10 Trump to 10/10 Harris. Millions of those are somewhere close to their own personal tipping points, and every time the needle moves - like for example, after one candidate has a successful, high profile TV debate - it puts another few thousand into play.

I don't disagree with what you say here. But I think most of those people have already decided. Lots of Republicans have already publicly declared that they will be voting Democrat. Hopefully it's enough.

 

[Petcha]

I mean, I was half asleep, so could have imagined it but at one point did Trump suggest Harris was in favour of aborting babies after they were born? Ie, murdering them? And had to be corrected by the moderator?

 

[Petcha]

Oh and the 'she can be who she likes, whatever race she chooses, I don't care'.... bit. again i might be paraphrasing.

How she kept her shit together for the most part throughout those 90 minutes is beyond me. Those ad breaks must have been excruciating as they weren't allowed to leave the stage to consult their teams.

 

[belboid]

I mean, I was half asleep, so could have imagined it but at one point did Trump suggest Harris was in favour of aborting babies after they were born? Ie, murdering them? And had to be corrected by the moderator?

He did indeed.

 

[GarveyLives]

Voters react:

​

 

[Petcha]

I think those are three takeaways then for me:

• Harris would support 'aborting' babies even after they've left the womb
• Illegal migrants in Ohio eat the locals' cats and dogs habitually for dinner (apparently there was a huge massive gasp from the Rebublican side of the spin room on that one)
• And that Harris has the option to choose her race, it's fully up to her, not her genes

It was fucking amazing. I want more, what a shame there's only one of these.

I know a lot of you are saying these debates don't matter but 50m people watched his increasingly insane performance and that will absolutely swing some votes.

 

[Cloo]

But how can anyone truly be "undecided"?

Trump is a disaster. Everyone outside MAGA knows that.

Those who are wavering on their vote are people who don't want to vote for a Black Democrat woman but feel uncomfortable putting Trump back into the driving seat.

It really is possible they they'll either not vote, or vote for him.

Anyone who thinks this election is being fought over policies is looking at it through the wrong lense.


Of course Harris won the debate last night. But Trump voters aren't evaluating the debate, they're evaluating a set of matrices that too many people either don't see, aren't aware of, or dismiss.

I was thinking about this. Maybe it's a problem of an utterly two-party system - I was thinking what I'd do if a Labour leader started spouting that she'd be a dictator from day one and allied herself with Christian Nationalists etc etc. The fact is I think me and many others would switch out vote to Lib Dems because they're not the Tories. In the US you are Republican or you are Democrat. Your distaste for a leader is less likely to outweigh the principles on which you vote and I do think some otherwise intelligent GOP voters still fall for the line that Dems are some sort of super-Socialists.

I mean, it still astonishes me that anyone can look at Trump and not feel utterly humiliated by the idea of being represented by this stupid, hateful incoherent pile of mouldy tangerines representing you on the world stage, but there you go.

 

[Petcha]

It's her expressions here as she desperately tries not to laugh and then eventually loses it

 

[Coffeecup]

Just watched the 23rd anniversary of 9/11 on CNN.

Camera went briefly to a row of politicians which consisted of Schumer, Harris, Biden, ( can’t remember the name sorry), Trump JD Vance and Giuliani. Giuliani looks a mess.

But Schumer is looking sideways at Giuliani with, imo, daggers.

Although Giuliani is bowing his head, he looks a fallen man. What a difference 23 years has made? From hero to zero I would say.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Haven’t seen the debate yet, but from the analysis I've read it seems like Harris did a great job of baiting and distracting Trump. Apparently in areas where Trump has higher approval than Harris (on immigration and inflation), the digs she made at him threw him off track and instead of discussing these issues he instead started boasting about his crowd sizes. His narcissism is so extreme that he just can't help himself!

I appreciated the fact that she called him on some of his nonsense. The bit about eating cats and dogs was bizarre, but directly out of some of the more racist anti-immigrant memes I've seen. (And, quite frankly, anyone who eats meat really can't be upset if someone eats dog or cat.) Overall, it seemed strange coming from Trump who has never had a pet. You can tell he's never had a pet because he doesn't understand caring for any being other than himself.

The most telling bit was when Harris called him on placing the ad that called for five young black men to get the death penalty (for a crime they didn't commit). He was smirking. He was proud of it, even now. Some of his base will never accept that they were innocent or didn't deserve the death penalty even if they were not.

Over the years, I never thought he believed some of the things he said. I'm beginning to think he's gotten crazy enough that he believes his own shit.

<edited to add>
I also laughed at him talking about not being able to buy food like eggs and bacon. You know he's never bought his own groceries in his entire life.

 

[emanymton]

I appreciated the fact that she called him on some of his nonsense. The bit about eating cats and dogs was bizarre, but directly out of some of the more racist anti-immigrant memes I've seen. (And, quite frankly, anyone who eats meat really can't be upset if someone eats dog or cat.) Overall, it seemed strange coming from Trump who has never had a pet. You can tell he's never had a pet because he doesn't understand caring for any being other than himself.

The most telling bit was when Harris called him on placing the ad that called for five young black men to get the death penalty (for a crime they didn't commit). He was smirking. He was proud of it, even now. Some of his base will never accept that they were innocent or didn't deserve the death penalty even if they were not.

Over the years, I never thought he believed some of the things he said. I'm beginning to think he's gotten crazy enough that he believes his own shit.

He is a bullshiter and unlike liars they don't care about the truth, and I think are quite cable of believing whatever thing they are saying right now.

Lying vs. Bullshit

Emeritus professor of philosophy at Princeton Harry Frankfurt‘s book, On Bullshit, was a surprise bestseller a few years ago. Given the public musings about our President, I thought it time to revi…

reasonandmeaning.com

 

[Jeff Robinson]

I appreciated the fact that she called him on some of his nonsense. The bit about eating cats and dogs was bizarre, but directly out of some of the more racist anti-immigrant memes I've seen. (And, quite frankly, anyone who eats meat really can't be upset if someone eats dog or cat.) Overall, it seemed strange coming from Trump who has never had a pet. You can tell he's never had a pet because he doesn't understand caring for any being other than himself.

The most telling bit was when Harris called him on placing the ad that called for five young black men to get the death penalty (for a crime they didn't commit). He was smirking. He was proud of it, even now. Some of his base will never accept that they were innocent or didn't deserve the death penalty even if they were not.

Over the years, I never thought he believed some of the things he said. I'm beginning to think he's gotten crazy enough that he believes his own shit.

The philosopher Harry Frankfurt famously draws a distinction between a ‘liar’ and a ‘bullshiter’. Whilst a liar takes the truth seriously (in so far as they are trying to subvert it) the bullshiter is indifferent to the distinction between truth and lies, they just say what is ever expedient to them. They don’t fact check, they don’t care. Trump is the quintessential bullshiter.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

He is a bullshiter and unlike liars they don't care about the truth, and I think are quite cable of believing whatever thing they are saying right now.

Lying vs. Bullshit

Emeritus professor of philosophy at Princeton Harry Frankfurt‘s book, On Bullshit, was a surprise bestseller a few years ago. Given the public musings about our President, I thought it time to revi…

reasonandmeaning.com

Ha snap, I was typing my reply before I saw this!

 

[story]

I think those are three takeaways then for me:

• Harris would support 'aborting' babies even after they've left the womb
• Illegal migrants in Ohio eat the locals' cats and dogs habitually for dinner (apparently there was a huge massive gasp from the Rebublican side of the spin room on that one)
• And that Harris has the option to choose her race, it's fully up to her, not her genes

It was fucking amazing. I want more, what a shame there's only one of these.

I know a lot of you are saying these debates don't matter but 50m people watched his increasingly insane performance and that will absolutely swing some votes.

These lies have been circulating for a while. The only new-ish one is the pets thing, which broke into the public yesterday. But it didn't come from nowhere. It's been repeated in the comments for a while already.

Trump repeats them because they're already working.

 

[agricola]

Just watched the 23rd anniversary of 9/11 on CNN.

Camera went briefly to a row of politicians which consisted of Schumer, Harris, Biden, ( can’t remember the name sorry), Trump JD Vance and Giuliani. Giuliani looks a mess.

But Schumer is looking sideways at Giuliani with, imo, daggers.

Although Giuliani is bowing his head, he looks a fallen man. What a difference 23 years has made? From hero to zero I would say.

I don’t know if you have seen it or not, but John Oliver’s show on Giuliani demonstrated that, in fact, he was always weird.

 

[two sheds]

I mean, I was half asleep, so could have imagined it but at one point did Trump suggest Harris was in favour of aborting babies after they were born? Ie, murdering them? And had to be corrected by the moderator?

No he didn't say 'murder' that I heard. He repeated 'execution'.

 

[Petcha]

I think she did miss a trick, although possibly intentionally, to not call him out more on his ranting about 'criminals' being let into the country under Biden's watch. Erm.... You're a felon. You're a criminal, with many more trials coming. She went a bit light on all that. I assume that was intentional, to try not to do too much shit-flicking and appear more Presidential.

Which she did very well at. It was a bit of an ass-kicking. Apparently he might want a rematch pre-election which would be great.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I've never understood the rights focus on late term abortions. There are fewer than 1,000 of these each year and in all cases there's massive fetal anomalies or the life of the mother is at risk. I suppose it plays well to low information voters who believe that they're "executing babies". I had a friend who dealt with a late term abortion, and she had to be airlifted to Denver for the procedure. The last thing she or her family needed was people interfering in their family's tragedy.

 

[agricola]

I think she did miss a trick, although possibly intentionally, to not call him out more on his ranting about 'criminals' being let into the country under Biden's watch. Erm.... You're a felon. You're a criminal, with many more trials coming. She went a bit light on all that. I assume that was intentional, to try not to do too much shit-flicking and appear more Presidential.

Which she did very well at. It was a bit of an ass-kicking. Apparently he might want a rematch pre-election which would be great.

This sort of leads into a wider question of why he believes that sort of thing.

He would probably much rather have people believe that it’s because of his political nous in expertly dividing society - but it would probably be really effective to say that it’s because he is gullible and the vessel for sinister forces, a bit of a rube if you will. I mean he reacts in much the same way as his base does, especially when challenged.

 

[story]

I was thinking about this. Maybe it's a problem of an utterly two-party system - I was thinking what I'd do if a Labour leader started spouting that she'd be a dictator from day one and allied herself with Christian Nationalists etc etc. The fact is I think me and many others would switch out vote to Lib Dems because they're not the Tories. In the US you are Republican or you are Democrat. Your distaste for a leader is less likely to outweigh the principles on which you vote and I do think some otherwise intelligent GOP voters still fall for the line that Dems are some sort of super-Socialists.

I mean, it still astonishes me that anyone can look at Trump and not feel utterly humiliated by the idea of being represented by this stupid, hateful incoherent pile of mouldy tangerines representing you on the world stage, but there you go.

MAGA genuinely does feel represented by Trump.
How many of those are registered to vote and will go out to vote is important.

Not all MAGA is thick as shit. Plenty recognise his faults and don't care. Some are willing to hold their nose and vote for him even if they don't really like him. And outside the crazy of MAGA are more apparently reasonable people who do support Trump.

The American thing of shoving your way to the front is honoured respected even revered. It's enshrined. It's why Middle School is such a torture chamber for American school kids. They're essentially.thrown into the pit and they find a way to play the game or they go under. The Logan brothers are an perfect example. Both foul bullies, both hugely successful despite fucking up. And they're respected and honoured exactly because they're bullies and have fucked up and hugely successful.

Remember when Trump pushed through to the front at the NATO meeting? They fucking loved that. I mean, really loved it. It's exactly what they want to see and to be.