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Czechia elections

Red menace news -
Czech communists have savoured their first taste of power in nearly 30 years after their backing in a parliamentary confidence vote paved the way for a government headed by Andrej Babiš, a scandal-tainted billionaire tycoon, amid vehement protests against their return to the political mainstream.

The 15 MPs of the Communist party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) provided the votes needed to allow a pact formed between Babiš’ Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) movement and the Social Democrats (ČSSD) to survive its first test, ending nearly nine months of political stalemate that saw the Czech Republic governed by temporary administrations.

The vote - shortly after 1am local time on Thursday - followed a marathon debate lasting more than 12 hours in which opposition MPs voiced fierce opposition to the idea a government reliant on Communist support and questioned Babiš’ fitness to govern in the face of criminal allegations against him.
 
And again: Babiš is through to the second round of the presidential election.

Backgrounder on Babiš: Now The Czechs Have An Oligarch Problem (Foreign Affairs, 2015)

Some basic info on the context of the election: Al Jazeera

Babiš through to the second round, along with Petr Pavel: The Guardian

Pavel is a former army general; this puts off some, as does his past membership of the Communist Party. Otherwise, he has the support of most liberals. Babiš, billionaire and past secret police informer, has more support outside the capital. I suspect Babiš is likely to pick up votes from the far right and authoritarian communists. I'll post more thoughts when I have some time.
 
I am fairly sure Pavel is going to win. The governing coalition are supporting him, and his campaign has been quite good, appealing to both city liberals and more conservative types out in the regions. Babiš leads ANO, Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, a populist party drawing on left (increase in pensions) and right ideas and opposing help for Ukrainian refugees. He is backed by the current president, Miloš Zeman. High inflation and rising inequality favour Babiš, but I suspect that his appeal has waned in the past couple of years.

Disnformation is rife in this country. The presidential election ten years ago was marked by Zeman spreading the rumour that the other candidate, Karel Schwarzenberg, was going to hand the former Sudetenland back to Germany. Before the last general election a rumour went around that the Pirate Party would appropriate people's country cottages and spare rooms to house refugees. Today I read that a text message has been circulating claiming that Pavel will conscript Czechs to fight for Ukraine. All laughable, but people believe it.
 
Decent article from The Guardian here.

Either result will be divisive, but Pavel will try reconciliation, whereas Babiš revels in controversy. Czech society as a whole is polarised, partly as a result of constant disinformation (shit media, some of which is owned by Babiš, piss poor media literacy, along with credible suggestions that the country was a testing ground for Russian disinformation campaigns). Until liberals understand that many people outside the main cities have not benefited from the 1989 revolution like they have, the division will continue.

Lenka: a portrait of methamphetamine addiction in Czech Republic is a good insight into the way of life of far too many people here. Pustina (Wasteland) is a TV series set in north Bohemia; fiction, but the setting gives a good idea of Czech life beyond Prague.
 
70% turnout, and Petr Pavel has won with just over 58% of votes. It's said to be the biggest win in history, but as it's only the third time the president has been elected by the public, that's not saying much.

Pavel's win is a big relief, but the fact remains that over 41% of voters opted for a billionaire former agent of the secret police who opposes help for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees. This is not a happy country, and unless inflation is brought under control and rising inequalities addressed, I will not be confident for the future.

Good articles on Radio Prague (English), and The Guardian.
 
Posting this here rather than in the Ukraine forum, as this movement has begun to encompass something a bit wider, and this thread seems the most appropriate place.

The anti-government movement that began in protest at support for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees, which draws on supporters of the far right SPD and the KSČM (communist, but barely distinguishable from the fash), has developed into a new party called PRO (something like Law, Respect, Expertise). During a protest last month they tried to enter the National Museum to remove a Ukrainian flag hanging from the outside of the building. Further protests have been taking place this month; on my way to work this morning I passed a crowd of maybe 100 protesting near the Chamber of Deputies.

The current government are deeply unpopular: 63% rate the current prime minister unfavourably. This is fair enough - it's a coalition led by an essentially Thatcherite party, and inequality here is growing. However, they were voted in in order to remove ANO, a populist vehicle of oligarch former secret police informer Andrej Babiš, so it was a case of the lesser of two evils. That is the basic problem: the country is split between liberals who would not consider voting for any vaguely left party*, and the rest who either go for populism or all out authoritarianism. With the economy in a worsening state, and wages falling in relation to cost of living, I can see support for PRO and ANO rising, and liberal voters failing to turn out.

*A friend confessed to me that she is a leftist. We were in a cafe, and she actually spoke in hushed conspiratorial tones. The right have been so successful at associating anything other than neoliberalism with communism that few people admit to any sympathy with socialism. Because of that, there are no viable left parties. It seems that amongst younger people this might be changing, but it is going to take time.
 
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