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Council by-election results

It's maybe too early for a dedicated thread so I'll put this here for now. Here are the wards up for election next year via Election Maps


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Oh yeah i did read about that. See what you mean. I doubt those changes would happen by the may 2025 election though?
No, but that's the point; if an area is declared to be up for re=organisation before that point then the elections due for the out-going administrations won't take place.
 
Oh yeah i did read about that. See what you mean. I doubt those changes would happen by the may 2025 election though?
No, but that's the point; if an area is declared to be up for re=organisation before that point then the elections due for the out-going administrations won't take place.
And guess what, the "15 minute city" wazzocks have accused the government of denying democracy, gerrymandering, all of that. Reform has suggested that their leading the polls is why elections will not happen next year. Tin foil bollocks.
 
And guess what, the "15 minute city" wazzocks have accused the government of denying democracy, gerrymandering, all of that. Reform has suggested that their leading the polls is why elections will not happen next year. Tin foil bollocks.
No defence of the faux outrage but, in opposition, the LP would doubtless have said the same.
 

Classic territory. Even by Sittingbourne standards, the creekside ward is deprived; almost all of it in the top 3 levels of the Index of Multiple Deprivation and has previously elected UKIP councillors. Turnout an abysmal 17% which was 8% down on the previous local. The only consolation is that these 272 refUKer supporters only amount to 6% of the electorate, but they are the biggest group that bothered to vote on a dank `Thursday before Xmas. A depressing result from a depressing area.
 
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Labour retained Greenwich - solid enough margin but still a fair bit lower than 22. 45% down from 61% or so.
LDs a solid 2nd at 31%, up 24%, Ref/Con at 8.9/8, with latter down 6.8, Greens 5.3 down 9.6
 
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I don't really think we can predict too much about 2026 London elections now, but it would be pretty fucking brutal for Labour if they lost 20% of their vote share across the city where they hold wards. Hell, or even 10%.

They got 57% of the vote in Greenwich in 2022 last time, taking all but 3 of the councillors, with the Tories at 2, with 3.
 
I don't really think we can predict too much about 2026 London elections now, but it would be pretty fucking brutal for Labour if they lost 20% of their vote share across the city where they hold wards. Hell, or even 10%.

They got 57% of the vote in Greenwich in 2022 last time, taking all but 3 of the councillors, with the Tories at 2, with 3.
Yeah, but peoples' voting behaviour in council by-elections is rarely a useful predictor in how they might in wider, whole administration votes.
 
Yeah, but peoples' voting behaviour in council by-elections is rarely a useful predictor in how they might in wider, whole administration votes.

Oh absolutely.

But there have been enough this year since the general that it's reasonable to think it would have an impact.

But in London's case we don't have any till 26 so who knows where Labour will be then.

I do think it is reasonable to think that Labour has been pretty popular in a lot of Inner/Central London boroughs for 15 years or so and to conclude that their time in government so far indicates that they have reached their high point
 
Upcoming by-elections


9 January:
North Devon, Instow (2027). Lucinda Renshaw (Conservative) has resigned.

16 January:
Bath & North East Somerset, Saltford (2027). Alison Streatfeild-James (Liberal Democrat) has resigned.
Cotswold, Chesterton (2027). Roly Hughes (Liberal Democrat) has resigned.

23 January:
Edinburgh, Colinton/Fairmilehead (2027). Marco Biagi (SNP) has resigned.
Edinburgh, Colinton/Fairmilehead (2027). Louise Spence (Liberal Democrat) has resigned.
Liverpool, Much Woolton & Hunts Cross (2027). Dave Aizlewood (Liberal Democrat) has resigned.
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Town (2026). Wendy Brockie (Labour) has resigned.
Shetland, Shetland North (2027). Tom Morton (Labour) has resigned.
Stirling, Bannockburn (2027). Margaret Brisley (Labour) has died.

6 February:
Hyndburn, Baxenden (2028). Edward Blake (Labour) has died.
Medway, Rochester East & Warren Wood (2027). Tris Osborne (Labour) has resigned. He is the new MP for Chatham & Aylesford.
Medway, Rochester East & Warren Wood (2027). Lauren Edwards (Labour) has resigned. She is the new MP for Rochester & Strood.
Medway, Gillingham South (2027). Naushabah Khan (Labour) has resigned. She is the new MP for Gillingham & Rainham.
Tendring, The Bentleys & Frating (2027). Lynda McWilliams (Conservative) has resigned.
Wokingham, Winnersh (2026). Paul Fishwick (Liberal Democrat) has died.
 
Just 2 LD defences yesterday, one of which they lost to Indies.

Not sure there's much to see here beyond more evidence of people actually turning out to vote for the refUKers in real electoral contests; 25% and 10% vote share from scratch.

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Upcoming by-elections


6 February:
Hyndburn, Baxenden (2028). Edward Blake (Labour) has died.
Medway, Rochester East & Warren Wood (2027). Tris Osborne (Labour) has resigned. He is the new MP for Chatham & Aylesford.
Medway, Rochester East & Warren Wood (2027). Lauren Edwards (Labour) has resigned. She is the new MP for Rochester & Strood.
Medway, Gillingham South (2027). Naushabah Khan (Labour) has resigned. She is the new MP for Gillingham & Rainham.
Tendring, The Bentleys & Frating (2027). Lynda McWilliams (Conservative) has resigned.
Wokingham, Winnersh (2026). Paul Fishwick (Liberal Democrat) has died.

11 February:
Pembrokeshire, Haverfordwest Prendergast (2027). Andrew Edwards (Independent, elected as Conservative) has resigned.

13 February:
Barnet, Burnt Oak (2026). Ammar Naqvi (Labour) has resigned.
East Dunbartonshire, Kirkintilloch North & East & Twechar (2027). Susan Murray (Liberal Democrat) has resigned. She is the new MP for Mid Dunbartonshire.
New Forest, "Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East" (2027). Neil Millington (Green) has resigned.
Stevenage, Manor (2026). Graham Snell (Liberal Democrat) has died.
Torfaen, Trevethin & Penygarn (2027). Sue Malson (Labour) has ceased to be a councillor.
Warwick, All Saints & Woodloes (2027). John Sullivan (Independent, elected as Labour) has been removed from the list of councillors.

18 February:
Brent, Alperton (2026). Anton Georgiou (Liberal Democrat) has resigned.

20 February:
Barking & Dagenham, Whalebone (2026). Glenda Paddle (Labour) has died.
Colchester, Tiptree (2028). Roger Mannion (Conservative) has died.
East Ayrshire, Kilmarnock North (2027). Elaine Cowan (Labour) has died.
Hammersmith & Fulham, Hammersmith Broadway (2026). Emma Apthorp (Labour) has resigned.
Hammersmith & Fulham, Lillie (2026). Ben Coleman (Labour) has resigned. He is the new MP for Chelsea & Fulham.
 
(I get these lists from VoteUK, the difference between 'resigned' and "no longer a councillor/removed from list of councillors" is usually an announcement or press release or something comes out to explain why a Cllr has left their job; if there's no explanation or confirmation, then the latter tag is used rather than "resigned". See, messageboards of all kinds have rules and regulations as though the Internet hasn't really changed at all)
 
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