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I see the BBC live updates page about the China situation included an entry on the health situation:

Most of the world used lockdowns to buy time in order to develop and roll out Covid vaccines.

China is still dependent on strict controls.

The country developed its own vaccines, but they are not as good as the mRNA technology - such as the Pfizer and Moderna shots - used elsewhere and they have not been given to enough people.

Two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine gives 90% protection against severe disease or death vs 70% with China's Sinovac.
Click to expand...

And far too few of the elderly - who are most likely to die from Covid - have been immunised.

Another consequence of stopping the virus in its tracks is there is very little "natural immunity" from people surviving infections.

All this leaves China with a massive problem. The new variants spread far more quickly than the virus that emerged three years ago and there is a constant risk of it being imported from countries that are letting the virus spread.
Click to expand...

If China doesn't lock down at first sight of the virus then it risks the horrors of the early days of the pandemic.

Estimates from March this year suggested ending zero-Covid could overwhelm hospitals and lead to around 1.5 million deaths.

The choice is between being dependent on lockdowns in the long term and solving the country's immunity problem.
Click to expand...

From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...8496656967ef5dc5398fb2&pinned_post_type=share

I havent looked at those estimates from March properly yet.
 
I suppose the key bit they were on about from the March study, which would have applied wo an Omicron wave earlier this year in the absense of non-pharmaceutical interventions, was:

Our simulated baseline scenario suggests that, in the absence of strict NPIs, the introduction of the Omicron variant in China in March 2022 could have the potential to generate a tsunami of COVID-19 cases. Over a 6-month simulation period, such an epidemic is projected to cause 112.2 million symptomatic cases (79.58 per 1,000 individuals), 5.1 million hospital (non-ICU) admissions (3.60 per 1,000 individuals), 2.7 million ICU admissions (1.89 per 1,000 individuals) and 1.6 million deaths (1.10 per 1,000 individuals), with a main wave occurring between May and July 2022 (Figs. 1 and 2).
Click to expand...

www.nature.com

Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China - Nature Medicine

Estimates from a new modeling study suggest that current levels of vaccine coverage in China are insufficient to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, and that, if left untreated, a nationwide Omicron wave could result in up to 1.55 million deaths.
www.nature.com www.nature.com

Probably best to think about that sort of thing as the raw potential of the virus, rather than an exact scenario that can actually happen, since we know that once such a situation starts to develop some kind of response happens, behavioural changes happen. And we arent usually looking at a choice of no NPIs at all, even when people have had enough of the really strong measures.
 
Introducing bat SARS-like coronavirus BtSY2, perhaps a progenitor candidate for SARS-CoV-3, a recombinant coronavirus with human ACE2 receptor affinity, and as such, likely to be of high zoonotic risk.
Functional analysis indicated that Bat SARS-like coronavirus BtSY2 likely has the ability to the bind human ACE2 receptor, and even has slightly higher affinity than SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan-Hu 1. […] these data tentatively suggest that BtSY2 may be able to replicate rapidly with similar virulence as SARS-CoV. Although this issue merits further consideration, this virus is potentially of high risk of emergence and so should be monitored carefully.
Click to expand...
DOI:10.1101/2022.11.23.517609.
 
two sheds said:
www.indiatoday.in

Videos of bodies piling up at hospitals in China emerge, experts estimate Covid deaths in millions

Videos emerging from China showing bodies piling up at hospitals and crematoriums seem to confirm the claim by medical experts that Covid deaths are likely to have reached millions.
www.indiatoday.in www.indiatoday.in

Wtf? Is this accurate and if so how come - surely they'll have been vaccinating people.
Click to expand...
Some of the language is inaccurate, eg modelling estimates for a million or two million deaths are for time periods such as the year of 2023, the millions of deaths havent happened yet.

Vaccines dont eliminate covid death, they reduce it. The extent to which we would still expect to see deaths is dependant on factors such as:

How good your vaccines are
Getting booster shots at the right time
What proportion of the most vulnerable people got the vaccines and boosters
Properties of the version of the virus in circulation
Extent to which healthcare is overwhelmed
Levels of immunity in the population from prior infection with the virus
Other treatments for those who got sick
Peoples behaviours and other mitigation measures still in place
How many of the most vulnerable already died in previous waves

China has a very large population, not much immunity from prior infection, and is assumed to score quite poorly on many of the above. So the estimates for how many will die now that they ditched their policy which previously limited number of infections are rather large. The article you mention reflects this but is a bit sloppy at the start, and by relying on those who are prone to dramatic hyperbole such as Eric Feigl-Ding the article ends up with a similar dramatic tone. The fundamentals are no different to the sorts of things I've said all the way through though, the situation there is expected to be grim, as it would be in any other place with the same factors in play. There are still a range of possibilities in terms of how many deaths there will be there, and it is unlikely that we will be able to trust the official numbers either.

I linked to some recent articles about the modelled estimates for China and what the current fears are here: #1,046
 
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There were a few other factors missing from my list, such as nature of underlying population health, demographics, population density etc. And when it comes to peoples behaviour, some of the concerns in China are around events such as their new year when vast numbers of people travel, and the nature of the contacts between people and different generations changes for a period.

Another way to think about this is to consider other countries which had a covid suppression strategy until they were well into the vaccine era of the pandemic. Unlike the experience of the UK and many others, these countries would always be expected to see larger death spikes in the vaccine era, once restrictions were lifted, than they experienced in the early, pre-vaccine waves. Because they kept the number of infections down in the early waves, and vaccines dont save everyone.

So take for example Australia. On paper they would not score as poorly as China with some of the items in my list, eg we dont question the efficacy of their vaccines in the way we question Chinas. And unlike China, they probably did a much better job of getting their older population vaccinated and then boosted. And there will be differences in terms of population density, nature of many jobs and on-the-job contacts etc. As the following graph demonstrates, they still saw more action on the deaths graph in the vaccine era than they experienced earlier, but obviously the scale is not the same as what is expected in China. Some assumptions about China are based on the experience of Hong Kong.

Screenshot 2022-12-20 at 13.29.36.png
From Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
 
2hats said:
Introducing bat SARS-like coronavirus BtSY2, perhaps a progenitor candidate for SARS-CoV-3, a recombinant coronavirus with human ACE2 receptor affinity, and as such, likely to be of high zoonotic risk.

DOI:10.1101/2022.11.23.517609.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that. An interesting article.
I wonder given the genetic similarity with SARS-CoV-2 and the small number of amino acid substitutions in the RBD how efficacious the Spike based vaccines might be.
 
It also reminded me of this Podcast from a couple of years ago. It eventually gets onto how it is possible to identify all viruses with spillover potential if only someone would pay for it. It's expensive but not pandemic expensive.
 
two sheds said:
www.indiatoday.in

Videos of bodies piling up at hospitals in China emerge, experts estimate Covid deaths in millions

Videos emerging from China showing bodies piling up at hospitals and crematoriums seem to confirm the claim by medical experts that Covid deaths are likely to have reached millions.
www.indiatoday.in www.indiatoday.in

Wtf? Is this accurate and if so how come - surely they'll have been vaccinating people.
Click to expand...
No, it isn't accurate. Brainless Covid Cult Society members, of which Feigl-Ding is one of the heads, need to sell the fear.
 
two sheds said:
www.indiatoday.in

Videos of bodies piling up at hospitals in China emerge, experts estimate Covid deaths in millions

Videos emerging from China showing bodies piling up at hospitals and crematoriums seem to confirm the claim by medical experts that Covid deaths are likely to have reached millions.
www.indiatoday.in www.indiatoday.in

Wtf? Is this accurate and if so how come - surely they'll have been vaccinating people.
Click to expand...

The toll will probably reach millions in the months ahead, most of them elderly people with underlying conditions, but few of them will be counted as COVID deaths.

Beijing health officials Tuesday said that only those who had directly died of respiratory failure caused by the virus would be counted under Covid death statistics.

“At present after being infected with the Omicron variant, the main cause of death remains underlying diseases,” Wang Guiqiang of Peking University First Hospital told a press conference of the National Health Commission (NHC).

“Old people have other underlying conditions, only a very small number die directly of respiratory failure caused by infection with Covid,” they added.

hongkongfp.com

'No more space' at China's crematoriums as Covid-19 cases soar | Hong Kong Free Press HKFP

By Laurie Chen and Matthew Walsh Crematoriums across China are straining to deal with an influx of bodies as the country battles a wave of Covid cases that authorities have said is impossible to track. Cases are soaring across China, with hospitals struggling and pharmacy shelves stripped bare...
hongkongfp.com hongkongfp.com
 
Mr Retro said:
No, it isn't accurate. Brainless Covid Cult Society members, of which Feigl-Ding is one of the heads, need to sell the fear.
Click to expand...
In September 2020 you were not happy with the levels of fear or the suggestions of what strong measures would be required to cope with the second wave. After getting into a war of words with various people here, complaining about the 'hive mind' etc you said that you would see us all back here on October 13th 2020 to see if we were on track for 200 deaths a day. I dont remember you actually returning at the promised time, nor on 25th October 2020 when we had gone past that 200 a day mark, nor during November 2020 when daily deaths were in the 300-400 range, nor for that winters peak that saw over 1000 deaths per day for 15 days in a row. Instead you had the luxury of pissing off from posting until the following summer, when you returned to demonstrate your broadly unchanged stance despite the unpleasant wave of death we had experienced in the meantime. And the number I used to indicate that timeline arent even UK deaths, they are deaths for England alone, due to some rather tedious changes to the dashboard these days (certain UK nations stopped counting deaths within 28 days of a positive test so the dashboard these days tends to zoom into England when trying to look at certain UK figures)

There are a range of opinions seen during this pandemic, with some people falling towards the extremes at either end. If people would rather not place their faith in either extreme end of that spectrum, then they certainly shouldnt listen to you any more than they should take Feigl-Ding in undiluted form. I have placed myself on the extreme end of things at times too, due to what I consider to be the extreme consequences of this virus, so people may also want to listen to me less when I'm in that mode, as opposed to my more nuanced and longwinded posts.
 
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Yossarian said:
The toll will probably reach millions in the months ahead, most of them elderly people with underlying conditions, but few of them will be counted as COVID deaths.

Beijing health officials Tuesday said that only those who had directly died of respiratory failure caused by the virus would be counted under Covid death statistics.

“At present after being infected with the Omicron variant, the main cause of death remains underlying diseases,” Wang Guiqiang of Peking University First Hospital told a press conference of the National Health Commission (NHC).

“Old people have other underlying conditions, only a very small number die directly of respiratory failure caused by infection with Covid,” they added.

hongkongfp.com

'No more space' at China's crematoriums as Covid-19 cases soar | Hong Kong Free Press HKFP

By Laurie Chen and Matthew Walsh Crematoriums across China are straining to deal with an influx of bodies as the country battles a wave of Covid cases that authorities have said is impossible to track. Cases are soaring across China, with hospitals struggling and pharmacy shelves stripped bare...
hongkongfp.com hongkongfp.com
Click to expand...
In that case we'll have to rely on large clues via the pattern of total deaths from all causes for China, and excess death estimates, if such data is actually available for China and considered to be broadly correct. I dont remember whether I've seen that sort of data from China in the past or not.
 
Good piece here from the South China Morning Post on the unfolding disaster in China - Beijing spent years focusing on zero COVID policies then did an abrupt U-turn, bringing the country into the "everybody has COVID" stage when the health system was entirely unequipped to deal with it.

...they have tried to give the impression that the abrupt reopening in the middle of winter, when respiratory viral infections usually peak, was planned and thought out. Alas, the reality could not be more starkly different – fever medicine in short supply, hospitals and emergency services swamped, an acute blood shortage in many cities, the death toll soaring among the elderly, and morgues and funeral parlours overwhelmed with bodies.

When my friend wheeled his father’s body into the hospital mortuary, he saw body bags lined up against walls and inside a warehouse as the freezers had run out of space. He was told it would take at least seven days for his father’s body to be cremated because all crematoriums have been overwhelmed by demand....

The government also messed up its vaccination strategy from the outset. When China first started to roll out vaccines, the National Health Commission strongly recommended that only those people aged between 18 and 59 should get jabbed. That gave the impression that the vaccines were not suitable for people over 60, particularly those with underlying medical conditions....

The acute shortage of fever medicine is also a situation of Beijing’s own making. Strict rules have for the past three years discouraged people from buying such medicine over the counter, with the aim of sending anyone infected with the virus to quarantine facilities and makeshift hospitals. That has meant all pharmacies across the country have limited stocks of fever medicine and pharmaceutical firms had significantly curtailed their production of it. Now the authorities have asked them to ramp up production around the clock.
In addition, since medical resources were directed into mass testing and quarantine three years ago, hospitals around the country simply don’t have enough ICU beds and equipment to cope with the surging coronavirus cases.

 
teqniq said:
How on earth could they fuck up so badly?
Click to expand...
Authorities are prone to fuck up and highly centralised authoritarian ones which dont tolerate criticism have much more room to expand upon their fuckups to a much greater degree.

This can be mitigated against to some extent via luck, and having leaders that actually manage to make the right call on some major decisions at key moments, and to occasionally demonstrate that they have the right priorities.

Our own form of 'democracy' was capable of many absurdities during this pandemic, but Chinas system gave them the potential to take the absurd to a whole new level.
 
kabbes said:
Worth noting that if China do end up with 1.6 million deaths, that would still put their overall death rate at about half that of the UK.
Click to expand...
Closer to a third isn't it? Taking the total UK deaths as 213K, you would expect about 4.5 million deaths in China with the same death rate.
 
Combustible said:
Closer to a third isn't it? Taking the total UK deaths as 213K, you would expect about 4.5 million deaths in China with the same death rate.
Click to expand...
You’re right — I was thinking China has a population of about a billion but I see it’s actually more like 1.5 billion. Time moves on!
 
extra dry said:
Researchers study immune response, proteins in blood of young adults who develop rare complication after COVID vaccination

An article looking at the vaccine and side effects.
Click to expand...
Specifically, it’s an article looking at the fact that any side effects are so incredibly rare that they are hard to research because they are so hard to find, plus the fact that any side effects that do develop seem pretty straightforwardly treatable.

It’s estimated that roughly 18 cases occur in every 1 million vaccine doses administered, making it so rare that it is challenging to find cases to investigate…
…
Patients with myocarditis can be treated with steroids to reduce inflammation, and there are largely favorable early outcomes for young adults and adolescents who develop this condition after vaccination. The new study may point to additional ways to treat and improve outcomes for patients with post-vaccination myocarditis.
Click to expand...
 
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Kevbad the Bad said:

i wasn't sure which thread to put this under. It seems very much to suggest that repeated vaccination can lead to an increased risk of getting the omicron variant.
Click to expand...

At the moment this observation gets lumped in with other indicators from other studies which seem to show the same sort of thing. The main theory that offers a possible explanation for this so far is to do with immune imprinting. Which involves the idea that if your immune system meets the same strain of the virus over multiple successive events with reasonable gaps in between them, it might get primed to look for the threat in a rather narrow way in future. So its not as well primed to respond when it meets a version of the virus that has evolved more substantially.

Its important to note that studies which have seen signs of this so far have mostly only been able to quantify the risks of infection, and how the hazard of that is reduced by vaccination, rather than being able to say much about the extent to which this sort of thing is impacting protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death.

This sort of immune system story also tends to get more complicated as time moves on and people develop increasingly complicated histories of prior vaccination and infection. And we cant say to what extent this immune imprinting will eventually come undone as the immune system meets a greater diversity of virus variants in future.
 
elbows said:
At the moment this observation gets lumped in with other indicators from other studies which seem to show the same sort of thing. The main theory that offers a possible explanation for this so far is to do with immune imprinting. Which involves the idea that if your immune system meets the same strain of the virus over multiple successive events with reasonable gaps in between them, it might get primed to look for the threat in a rather narrow way in future. So its not as well primed to respond when it meets a version of the virus that has evolved more substantially.

Its important to note that studies which have seen signs of this so far have mostly only been able to quantify the risks of infection, and how the hazard of that is reduced by vaccination, rather than being able to say much about the extent to which this sort of thing is impacting protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death.

This sort of immune system story also tends to get more complicated as time moves on and people develop increasingly complicated histories of prior vaccination and infection. And we cant say to what extent this immune imprinting will eventually come undone as the immune system meets a greater diversity of virus variants in future.
Click to expand...
Thanks for all that. the reason I posted it is because a vaccine conspiracist on a local Facebook site is crowing about this as proof that all vaccines have been useless since the pandemic started
 
Kevbad the Bad said:

i wasn't sure which thread to put this under. It seems very much to suggest that repeated vaccination can lead to an increased risk of getting the omicron variant.
Click to expand...
Or repeated vaccination because you are considered vulnerable (in some respect) and/or increased occupational exposure risk and potentially higher viral loads (because, hey - you work in clinical healthcare!) might be greater factors in elevating the risk of developing COVID-19.

Really, that paper is sloppily written and the study poorly designed, riven through with a lorryload of confounders (to their credit they admit to many). It brings no new knowledge to the table. Vaccines prevent severe disease episodes and suitable antigenic exposure histories can be quite effective at even reducing infection/symptomatic episodes, whilst poor antigenic exposure histories (inadequate maturation, imprinting) can lead to less satisfactory outcomes (am still waiting to see if anyone studies administration of bivalent or new mono/polyvalent in the arm not used in the primary series). But here, sadly, they never even bothered to gear the study to shining more light on these factors - which would have been a useful contribution.
 
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