elbows
Well-Known Member
Its pretty standard for them to combine multiple objectives into the same propaganda campaign. And to make use of sentiments they already stoked previously.
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Combustible
Well-Known Member
I don't get this line of argument, clearly any omicron cases in China must have originated outside the country, so either came in via a person entering the country or on the surface of an object. As I understand it in this case no transmission chain was identified and the virus was found on a recently delivered package. Plenty of cases have been reported as coming through the quarantine system leading to local transmissions so it's not exactly like they are unwilling to admit that cases get through sometimes. As I think you pointed out a number of times earlier in the pandemic there was an overemphasis on surface transmission, whereas now the dogma seems to have swung the other way that surface transmission does not occur. Recently 5 cases were reported at a Beijing cold storage facility. It's possible they had an unknown transmission chain to an incoming but arriving on imported frozen goods does seem much more likely.
elbows
Well-Known Member
When I use the word propaganda I am not actually saying something is or is not possibly true, I am just pointing out that something is being used for propaganda purposes. Sometimes the best propaganda is truth, sometimes not. But propaganda does tend to be more effective if it has some plausibility to it.
First flight lands on Covid-free island - what happened next won’t surprise you
Island imposes a four-day lockdown in response
www.independent.co.uk
Yossarian
Get thee behind me, Santa
The "omicron arrived in Beijing on mail from Toronto" claim is pure propaganda and nobody should believe it for a second - there have been omicron outbreaks in multiple cities in China, including Tianjin, less than 30 minutes away from Beijing by train.
An outbreak in Anyang was linked to a student who traveled 260 miles from Tianjin to the city on Dec. 29, more than a week before the first omicron case was detected in Tianjin. In Hong Kong, they've found omicron cases spreading through multiple floors in apartment buildings and as far as they can figure out, one person was infected in the few seconds they walked past a masked infected person in a subway tunnel.
But instead of concluding that this woman was infected from an unknown source during her extensive travels around the city, these clowns in Beijing expect people to believe that it's more likely that she got omicron from an infectious dose of the virus that survived on the outside of mail that traveled from Canada to Beijing in a four-day journey that took it through the US and Hong Kong.
Even if they're not just completely making up the stuff about finding the virus on an envelope, is it not just a tiny bit more likely that the infected woman contaminated her mail rather than the other way around?
With the number of people with British connections down there, there must have been a fuck of a lot of mail going from omicron-saturated Britain to largely omicron-free New Zealand in December, you'd expect at least a few cases in NZ to have been caused that way if this was a remotely plausible method of transmission.
An outbreak in Anyang was linked to a student who traveled 260 miles from Tianjin to the city on Dec. 29, more than a week before the first omicron case was detected in Tianjin. In Hong Kong, they've found omicron cases spreading through multiple floors in apartment buildings and as far as they can figure out, one person was infected in the few seconds they walked past a masked infected person in a subway tunnel.
But instead of concluding that this woman was infected from an unknown source during her extensive travels around the city, these clowns in Beijing expect people to believe that it's more likely that she got omicron from an infectious dose of the virus that survived on the outside of mail that traveled from Canada to Beijing in a four-day journey that took it through the US and Hong Kong.
Even if they're not just completely making up the stuff about finding the virus on an envelope, is it not just a tiny bit more likely that the infected woman contaminated her mail rather than the other way around?
With the number of people with British connections down there, there must have been a fuck of a lot of mail going from omicron-saturated Britain to largely omicron-free New Zealand in December, you'd expect at least a few cases in NZ to have been caused that way if this was a remotely plausible method of transmission.
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Their PM cancels her wedding. Boris gets married and has another few kids while he's at it, and then pisses it up in the heart of government to celebrate. It's unreal.
Balbi
Hey, Dean Yager!
Tbh we bought ourselves time to get the vaccine developed, get our order in after the countries who were being slammed by it, get high vax rates, buy the new treatments that came online, vaccinate the Cook Islands and Tokelau and others.
When Delta emerged we struggled to stop it but it still didn't kill thousands and things have been pretty normal here for the last two and a bit years.
With Omicron it was just a matter of time, and the messaging here has been "get jabbed, get boosted, get ready, it's coming" for the last two months.
We're as well prepared as 5,000,000 folks can be, only had 15000 cases so far since February 2020 and 51 deaths. That's going to change a bit now, but hopefully we won't tank as much as the UK and Aussie have.
When Delta emerged we struggled to stop it but it still didn't kill thousands and things have been pretty normal here for the last two and a bit years.
With Omicron it was just a matter of time, and the messaging here has been "get jabbed, get boosted, get ready, it's coming" for the last two months.
We're as well prepared as 5,000,000 folks can be, only had 15000 cases so far since February 2020 and 51 deaths. That's going to change a bit now, but hopefully we won't tank as much as the UK and Aussie have.
I don't think you could possibly get a different style of 'leadership' than what we're dealing with here.
I'm glad your strategy has worked out anyway. 90% double jabbed aint bad so I'm sure you'll ride this one out. We're being sent back to work here with still over 100,000 cases a day, so our glorious leader can placate the right wing nuts in his party. Personally I've told my boss no fucking way I'm going back in yet.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Looking at Danish figures, where our new cases peaked around New Year, theirs have just kept on going up after momentarily slowing at New Year.
But their health indicators remain pretty good despite this - deaths reasonably low, hospital occupancy around half what we have here (they may be measuring more accurately, though, I don't know - ie excluding incidental covid): around 900, which is equivalent to about 11,000 in the UK. Intensive care and respirator use also lower than here.
They seem to be keeping it reasonably well away from vulnerable old people.
Experience
But their health indicators remain pretty good despite this - deaths reasonably low, hospital occupancy around half what we have here (they may be measuring more accurately, though, I don't know - ie excluding incidental covid): around 900, which is equivalent to about 11,000 in the UK. Intensive care and respirator use also lower than here.
They seem to be keeping it reasonably well away from vulnerable old people.
Experience
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well in regards 'incidental' Covid, this was said in regards Denmark on January 17th. I expect that figure may have changed by now, if the UK is anything to go by it will have increased further.
www.reuters.com
Denmark eases coronavirus restrictions, as cases hit new record
Denmark registered a record number of coronavirus infections on Monday, as cinemas, museums and other cultural institutions reopened after a month-long COVID-19 lockdown.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Neil Young trying to pull his songs from Spotify because they’re pushing Covid misinformation and it’s killing people, specifically the Joe Rogan podcast.
Better music than Clapton/van Morrison and also a better human.
www.theguardian.com
Better music than Clapton/van Morrison and also a better human.
Neil Young demands Spotify remove his music over Joe Rogan vaccine misinformation
‘They can have Rogan or Young. Not both,’ writes musician in an open letter to his management that has since been taken down from his website
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Thanks for that - it reminded me to uninstall spotify that had been auto-running since some podcast or other.Neil Young trying to pull his songs from Spotify because they’re pushing Covid misinformation and it’s killing people, specifically the Joe Rogan podcast.
Better music than Clapton/van Morrison and also a better human.
Neil Young demands Spotify remove his music over Joe Rogan vaccine misinformation
‘They can have Rogan or Young. Not both,’ writes musician in an open letter to his management that has since been taken down from his website
I'm so relieved he hasn't gone to the dark side on this
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah the last thing we needed was a anti-vax rework of Needle and the damage done.Thanks for that - it reminded me to uninstall spotify that had been auto-running since some podcast or other.
I'm so relieved he hasn't gone to the dark side on this
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Must. Not. Google. That.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
The other thing of note for me is the way omicron has taken over in countries that had relatively high rates of delta when omicron entered the scene, which includes both the UK and Denmark. Both countries now have 99% omicron, same as South Africa and Botswana, which had relatively low rates of delta pre-omicron. The absolute number of delta cases is going down rapidly - well under 1,000 a day now in the UK. Two months of omicron, and delta seems to be toast. It does appear that it is swiftly being pushed towards extinction worldwide.Well in regards 'incidental' Covid, this was said in regards Denmark on January 17th. I expect that figure may have changed by now, if the UK is anything to go by it will have increased further.
Denmark eases coronavirus restrictions, as cases hit new record
Denmark registered a record number of coronavirus infections on Monday, as cinemas, museums and other cultural institutions reopened after a month-long COVID-19 lockdown.
Latest figures here:
Share of SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are the omicron variant
miss direct
misfungled
Can anyone tell me what's happening re covid in Bangladesh? I can't find much up to date news and am not sure where to look.
ruffneck23
front left
I work with a couple of peeps in India, not sure where , but I can ask them tomorrow when they come on line and see if they know.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I havent had time to look at the data for myself, but I understand that the BA.2 variant of Omicron seems to be dominating in Denmark. Its on the rise in the UK too, some think it will be the dominant Omicron version here by mid Feb if current trends continue, but again I havent done such analysis for myself. I dont think there is a proper handle on whether there will be any important implications.
deeyo
hurled unheard to this world.
nah, he's pro-vax, is young neil.
wrote a song bout it n all.
eta: & for real, he made a new video for ''shut it down' as a reaction to the pandemic
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Yossarian
Get thee behind me, Santa
The Dhaka Tribune has a daily update in English.
Covid: Bangladesh logs 16,033 new cases with an infection rate of 32.4%
Fatality rate stands at 1.65%
elbows
Well-Known Member
I've now taken more time to look at their hospital data.
I've been comparing hospital and intensive care figures to the levels they had in past waves. Their numbers in hospital have started increasing again and are comparable to the numbers that they had a year ago.
Number of COVID-19 patients in hospital
An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.
ourworldindata.org
However there are obviously different implications when comparing the numbers in hospital now and in the wave a year ago, when looking at countries that did relatively well at protecting a lot of people in that wave compared to counties that ended up having the sort of numbers the UK had a year ago.
Also their intensive care graph shows the 'Omicron drop'.
Number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care (ICU)
An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.
ourworldindata.org
And that drop is leading to policy decisions that may seem strangely timed when looking at all the other data we are used to looking at, but makes more sense when we see the ICU data and consider what fears forced countries to act strongly in this pandemic in the first place.
And so we now have stories like these about Denmark announcing that they are dropping remaining restrictions at the start of February:
Denmark becomes first EU country to scrap all COVID-19 restrictions
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says country can find its ‘smile’ again.
www.politico.eu
Denmark ends most virus restrictions, as Sweden extends them
COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Denmark’s government said Wednesday it will scrap most...
The latter article also covers Sweden extending its measures for a few more weeks.
I wouldnt call the Danish approach entirely risk free, but I'm not going to talk much about such risks unless they show clear signs of materialising.
By the way, Denmark also presented some initial estimates in regards BA.2 transmissibility and severity, which I've mentioned here: Covid Mutations
elbows
Well-Known Member
These days this site is especially good at showing variants over time per country. I'm looking at it now because it shows BA.2 as well, most obviously in the chart for Denmark:
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Denmark has regularly been one of the first countries to lift restrictions. It lifted all restrictions around end of August last year, citing the vaccination rate, before bringing some back in November, and was earlier than most in reopening schools in 2020.
It benefits from a healthier political culture than here. Politicians don't have to pretend they get everything right all the time in quite the same way.
Thing about risks in removing remaining restrictions is that Denmark has really high rates (which can't be sustained for long, regardless) and isn't in trouble from those high rates. The risk was that high rates would cause big problems. They now know that high rates haven't caused big problems. It seems a pretty rational decision to me. Otherwise what? We have restrictions every winter from now on? There's a nasty bug around most winters.
It benefits from a healthier political culture than here. Politicians don't have to pretend they get everything right all the time in quite the same way.
Thing about risks in removing remaining restrictions is that Denmark has really high rates (which can't be sustained for long, regardless) and isn't in trouble from those high rates. The risk was that high rates would cause big problems. They now know that high rates haven't caused big problems. It seems a pretty rational decision to me. Otherwise what? We have restrictions every winter from now on? There's a nasty bug around most winters.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm not actually being critical of their approach in the way it sounds like you think I am. I reported their explanation for the dropping of restrictions with a pretty straight face and spoke of how the intensive care data can explain that decision in the ways other data cannot if people just use what they've learnt to expect from soaring case rates in previous waves as their main guide.
Keep in mind how angry and blunt I get when I think a complete pandemic catastrophe of timing or strength of measures is happening somewhere. I am a long way away from that position at the moment, even when it comes to the current UK approach to an extent at least. But also consider that I'm not exactly a cheerleader for establishment attitudes, priorities etc when it comes to public health in non-pandemic times, so even when we arent in an acute phase of the pandemic I'm not likely to be in 100% approval mode.
And I'm not inclined to talk about no risk when there is still some lurking in theory with this virus due to ongoing unknowns about the future. For this reason I'm not going to make claims about what will be normal or necessary in any future winters, and I would suggest that my stance that is actually not very far removed from the rhetoric of many governments. They reserve the right to act if the shit were to hit the fan again in future, and the door is still open to that even at times like these when they have the numbers more on their side than before, and are confident enough to speak of 'the end' in various ways. Its the end with an asterisk and some small print. And there will be various opportunities to see how much that evolves during 2022, eg we will eventually discover to what extent the powers that be in various countries are prepared to scale back on mass testing.
Declaring the acute phase of the pandemic to be over is a tricky business because the pandemic description is a global thing, and because of the usual variant uncertainties. What we are starting to see is that the current circumstances start to allow more and more individual countries to see themselves as moving beyond the acute phase of the pandemic, largely because they've had the lions share of vaccine supply. Assuming such progress holds, much of the old normal returns, a slightly modified version of the old orthodox approach but with some lessons learnt and much enhanced testing and still plenty of public attention that will fade gradually in the absence of notable setbacks.
When countries reach that phase and manage to sustain it for a while, we move on to questions such as how high levels are when in states approximating 'endemic equilibrium', and whether that requires any new ways of organising health services etc to cope at the same time as dealing with other health backlogs. eg in the UK, the ambulance service buckled a fair bit even in the vaccine era, and that may require some ongoing work to rectify fully. And then assuming these endemic periods will be punctuated by epidemic waves from time to time, authorities will want to consider the potential of each epidemic wave as it arrives, via variables such as the disease severity of the virus at that time, and how well they think vaccine and other immune protections will hold up on that occasion. If those factors deem it still likely that things will stay within the range that the orthodox approach can deal with, then we wont be asked to make very heavy changes to our behaviour. But things like public health guidance, press attention and mood music changes will still be part of our lives because they were before this pandemic, they are part of the old normal, as is me talking about them here. But the volume will be lower than that which was deemed essential by people like me and the authorities during the pandemic. And the audience will be smaller and compromised of a greater proportion of people who have personal, professional or political reasons to pay much attention to the plight of those still vulnerable to severe health outcomes from this virus beyond the acute pandemic phase.
Keep in mind how angry and blunt I get when I think a complete pandemic catastrophe of timing or strength of measures is happening somewhere. I am a long way away from that position at the moment, even when it comes to the current UK approach to an extent at least. But also consider that I'm not exactly a cheerleader for establishment attitudes, priorities etc when it comes to public health in non-pandemic times, so even when we arent in an acute phase of the pandemic I'm not likely to be in 100% approval mode.
And I'm not inclined to talk about no risk when there is still some lurking in theory with this virus due to ongoing unknowns about the future. For this reason I'm not going to make claims about what will be normal or necessary in any future winters, and I would suggest that my stance that is actually not very far removed from the rhetoric of many governments. They reserve the right to act if the shit were to hit the fan again in future, and the door is still open to that even at times like these when they have the numbers more on their side than before, and are confident enough to speak of 'the end' in various ways. Its the end with an asterisk and some small print. And there will be various opportunities to see how much that evolves during 2022, eg we will eventually discover to what extent the powers that be in various countries are prepared to scale back on mass testing.
Declaring the acute phase of the pandemic to be over is a tricky business because the pandemic description is a global thing, and because of the usual variant uncertainties. What we are starting to see is that the current circumstances start to allow more and more individual countries to see themselves as moving beyond the acute phase of the pandemic, largely because they've had the lions share of vaccine supply. Assuming such progress holds, much of the old normal returns, a slightly modified version of the old orthodox approach but with some lessons learnt and much enhanced testing and still plenty of public attention that will fade gradually in the absence of notable setbacks.
When countries reach that phase and manage to sustain it for a while, we move on to questions such as how high levels are when in states approximating 'endemic equilibrium', and whether that requires any new ways of organising health services etc to cope at the same time as dealing with other health backlogs. eg in the UK, the ambulance service buckled a fair bit even in the vaccine era, and that may require some ongoing work to rectify fully. And then assuming these endemic periods will be punctuated by epidemic waves from time to time, authorities will want to consider the potential of each epidemic wave as it arrives, via variables such as the disease severity of the virus at that time, and how well they think vaccine and other immune protections will hold up on that occasion. If those factors deem it still likely that things will stay within the range that the orthodox approach can deal with, then we wont be asked to make very heavy changes to our behaviour. But things like public health guidance, press attention and mood music changes will still be part of our lives because they were before this pandemic, they are part of the old normal, as is me talking about them here. But the volume will be lower than that which was deemed essential by people like me and the authorities during the pandemic. And the audience will be smaller and compromised of a greater proportion of people who have personal, professional or political reasons to pay much attention to the plight of those still vulnerable to severe health outcomes from this virus beyond the acute pandemic phase.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Oops I forgot to include vaccine waning uncertainties in that description.
Will Israel continue to provide early clues about such matters? I'm not sure. Their intensive care data trends didnt look great when I looked at them briefly using the site I linked to earlier when talking about Denmark. But I need to augment such data with quotes from their authorities, news reports etc to see what the actual story is and/or how its being presented.
Will Israel continue to provide early clues about such matters? I'm not sure. Their intensive care data trends didnt look great when I looked at them briefly using the site I linked to earlier when talking about Denmark. But I need to augment such data with quotes from their authorities, news reports etc to see what the actual story is and/or how its being presented.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I've only had a brief chance to look at news from Israel. Much of it is from around 3 weeks ago when they were talking about the massive increase i cases to come, plus the easing of restrictions.
But here is a sample of some more recent news. Its the same sort of picture as has being presented for other countries, including confidence that systems wont be overwhelmed, also featuring some comparisons to the UK. But since their booster timing was ahead of ours, and this wave is behind us, there is also an expansion of their 4th dose campaign, but not to the extent some recommended:
www.timesofisrael.com
www.timesofisrael.com
www.timesofisrael.com
I wouldnt describe their intensive care numbers as mirroring the pattern seen in the UK, they havent seen an 'Omicron drop', but they were starting from a different point before the Omicron surge, having dealt with the previous wave quite differently to how the UK did. All the same this picture requires further explanation.
ourworldindata.org
But here is a sample of some more recent news. Its the same sort of picture as has being presented for other countries, including confidence that systems wont be overwhelmed, also featuring some comparisons to the UK. But since their booster timing was ahead of ours, and this wave is behind us, there is also an expansion of their 4th dose campaign, but not to the extent some recommended:
1 in 20 Israelis infected, yet experts optimistic Omicron won’t defeat hospitals
Virus cases have passed half a million and are about to peak, but all indications are that the number of seriously ill patients is small enough to avoid health system crisis
www.timesofisrael.com
Israel approves fourth COVID vaccine shots for vulnerable over-18s
Boosters will also be available to carers of those at-risk due to medical conditions and others with high risk of exposure to virus
www.timesofisrael.com
‘I see death daily’: Under record strain, doctor describes misery of Omicron wards
Ariel Rokach speaks to ToI minutes after yet another patient dies; hospitals will cope, he says, but doctors are being pushed to their limits, emotionally and physically
www.timesofisrael.com
I wouldnt describe their intensive care numbers as mirroring the pattern seen in the UK, they havent seen an 'Omicron drop', but they were starting from a different point before the Omicron surge, having dealt with the previous wave quite differently to how the UK did. All the same this picture requires further explanation.
Number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care (ICU)
An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.
ourworldindata.org
