Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Daily covid hospital admissions/diagnoses for England by age group. Looks like the two oldest age groups admissions figures are now the highest they've been in the delta wave so far.

 

[elbows]

I still think part of the Hospital overload is due to GPs taking the piss (yea ill get flak again, dont care)

Covid and other respiratory diseases and resource and staff shortages and people coming forwards who didnt during earlier stages of the pandemic, and bed capacity and bed blocking issues. And yes, people resorting to A&E because they've not managed to get attended to properly by their GP is an additional issue on top of those. I wouldnt like to say exactly how much of that last issue I mentioned can be directly blamed on GPs in the way you do.

 

[StoneRoad]

There are loads of people going to A&E with stuff that they could get sorted out by visiting a decent pharmacy / chemist ...
[or even using NHS webpages ...] even if they can't get to speak to or see someone at their GP surgery.

I was with my OH for a GP visit recently and in the half hour I was there (waiting pre-appointment & the actual appointment) there were three no-shows out of nine other appointments for GPs or the practice nurses.
That's a lot of times that were booked and not available for other people ...
[one guy did turn up, very late, as he'd had a fall and was still very shaken, so I'll let him off]

 

[_Russ_]

I was with my OH for a GP visit recently

We live in different worlds

 

[Artaxerxes]

We live in different worlds

I've managed it but it took 2 telephone calls with a month between them and he took 30 seconds to look in my ear and pass me on to the ENT people for a further appointment without giving any solid opinion on what was wrong.

 

[Orang Utan]

I still think part of the Hospital overload is due to GPs taking the piss (yea ill get flak again, dont care)

How do you think they’re taking the piss? They’re as overworked and overwhelmed as any other workers in the NHS

 

[existentialist]

Theres been a lot of talk about plan B but so far I've not seen any sign of plan A.

Plan A was the Plandemic

 

[existentialist]

Covid and other respiratory diseases and resource and staff shortages and people coming forwards who didnt during earlier stages of the pandemic, and bed capacity and bed blocking issues. And yes, people resorting to A&E because they've not managed to get attended to properly by their GP is an additional issue on top of those. I wouldnt like to say exactly how much of that last issue I mentioned can be directly blamed on GPs in the way you do.

Talking of bed blocking...our local NHS trust has released this letter: 'Unprecedented' demand on health and care service leads to call for help from home

"There is currently an unprecedented demand on health and social care services across Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire, which is leading to significant delays in care provision.

"Put simply, the difficulty in discharging medically-fit patients from hospital – many of whom have complex personal circumstances and needs – is leading to significant bed shortages, and consequently, lengthy ambulance waits at the ‘front door’ of A&E departments, which mean that paramedics are unable to respond to other 999 calls in the community."

 

[SpookyFrank]

Plan A was the Plandemic

Those two things both have the same word in them, so they must be the same.

/Facebook commenter logic

 

[Fez909]

I work for a TV station and can see which ads are played, and we have another govt Covid ad coming up. It was due to come in yesterday, presumably to broadcast today, but it's been delayed until tomorrow, for broadcast Saturday onwards.

It's not common, but also not very rare for these delays, but I did wonder if they're redoing it, given some new info/feedback from the public mood - making it scarier, basically? I don't know what's in it except it relates to vaccines, so probably booster stuff.

Also, out of curiousity I had a look when the last corona ad was broadcast and it was way back in January.

OK, this is now in and it's really tame. Not what I was expecting.

Vaccines help us. Cold and flu spreads in winter. Get a flu jab, and if over 50, get a top up. Happy nurse saying she's vaxxed.

 

[elbows]

OK, this is now in and it's really tame. Not what I was expecting.

Vaccines help us. Cold and flu spreads in winter. Get a flu jab, and if over 50, get a top up. Happy nurse saying she's vaxxed.

They should have recycled images of Tony Blair with red demonic eyes. New variant, new danger.

 

[elbows]

New SAGE documents release leads to stories like this one:

Covid: Home working likely to be best way to curb virus - scientists

Tougher measures to stop the spread of coronavirus could be avoided with early action, advisers say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Early action, ho ho ho, my how we laughed.

I havent read the documents yet but they are here and relate to a meeting of October 14th:

SAGE meetings, October 2021

Minutes and papers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) meetings held in October 2021.

www.gov.uk

 

[elbows]

I have the usual problem of there being far too many relevant points made in the SAGE docs for me to even begin to quote them all. So I have to pick and choose. I'll assume everyone is aware that the usual stuff is in these documents, such as the need to act and plan early, utility of face masks etc, and I will stick to highlighting other stuff.

From the minutes for the October 14th meeting: https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1027514/S1381_SAGE_96_minutes.pdf

There should be no complacency around the risk posed by further viral evolution.
Ensuring sufficient testing and sequencing capacity to monitor for variants and capability to characterise new variants and conduct predictive vaccinology is crucial. SAGE noted recent discussions on the significant level of infections sequenced and border surveillance measures that are required to identify new variants within specified timeframes following their emergence.

Although there remains uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of any future resurgence, these scenarios suggest hospital admissions above those seen in January 2021 are increasingly unlikely, particularly in 2021.

SAGE has previously noted the risks associated with high prevalence (SAGE 93). Cases and admissions are currently at much higher levels than in European comparators, which have retained additional measures and have greater vaccine coverage especially in children. Reducing prevalence from a high level requires greater intervention than reducing from a lower level.

There has been a decrease in self-reported precautionary behaviours such as wearing a face covering. Effective reintroduction of measures would require clear and positive public communications (providing sufficient time for implementation), setting out expected impacts as well as scope, exemptions and approach to enforcement.

Reintroduction of working from home guidance is likely to have the greatest individual impact on transmission out of the proposed measures. Impact would be dependent on effectiveness of communication and guidance, employer response, and the proportion of workers able to work from home who were not already doing so at the time of implementation. It was noted that “presenteeism” may become an increasing reason for spread in the workplace and that it will be important to communicate effectively to avoid this.

SAGE reiterated the importance of individuals showing symptoms of any respiratory infection to prevent further transmission by staying at home. As noted above, public health communications should seek to tackle work presenteeism in the UK culture as we approach winter.

 

[elbows]

There is lots of detail about levels of testing (depressingly low) and the need for clear messages and support for people to not go to work when feeling unwell in this document.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027649/S1402_Testing_when_symptomatic__and_staying_at_home_with_influenza-like_illness_during_autumn_and_winter_2021__30.09.2021_.pdf

The UK Government’s ‘COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021’ proposes that existing NHS Test and Trace strategies will continue largely unchanged, with additional encouragement for employees to stay at home if they have non-COVID influenza-like illness.

2. At present, among people who take a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for COVID-19, rates of adherence to self-isolation are good [Moderate to High Confidence]. However, most people do not take a PCR test when symptomatic. [Moderate to High Confidence].

3. Whether people test when symptomatic partly depends on how they interpret their symptoms, particularly if these are mild, non-specific, occur in isolation, have lasted only a day or two, or occur in the absence of an obvious transmission event [Moderate Confidence].

The ubiquity of lateral flow tests has altered testing behaviour among people with symptoms [Moderate Confidence]. Around 45% of people with symptoms who have taken a test report having used a lateral flow test rather than a PCR, while 12% report having used both a lateral flow test and a PCR. There are trade-offs between the lower sensitivity of lateral flow tests and the greater likelihood that more people will use them earlier in their illness. Whether these trade-offs lead to a net beneficial or detrimental effect is unclear.

Multiple factors affect whether someone attends work when experiencing influenza-like illness, including the absence of sick leave, organisational culture, lack of cover for work, a sense of professional obligation, not feeling sufficiently ill and financial worries [Moderate Confidence]. Many of these factors have been exacerbated by the pandemic. At the same time, ability to work from home and motivation to protect others from respiratory illness have become more common. Clear communication that it is important to stay at home when ill, even if a negative COVID-19 test result is obtained, may encourage more people to stay at home. This is particularly likely if communication comes from multiple sources. Support that enables people to take time off is also necessary [Moderate Confidence].

The benefits of using PCR for symptomatic testing, and the limitations of using a lateral flow test in this situation, should be made clear to the public. Modelling to understand the trade- offs between a greater uptake of lateral flow tests among people with symptoms and a reduced sensitivity compared to PCR would be useful.

Rates of testing among people who have COVID-19-like symptoms have always been low.

Notably, the top barriers to intending to seek a test if symptomatic were “I know what symptoms I have and don’t believe they are COVID- 19 ones” and “it is unlikely I have COVID-19 because there aren’t many cases in my area.” Also common were “I’m not sure my symptoms are bad enough” and “I’m not sure this symptom is one that needs testing.”

While lateral flow tests remain free for the public for the time being, from 4 October 2021, a “collect code” is required in order to receive packs from the pharmacy. The introduction of any barrier to distribution seems likely to reduce the number of people who access testing.

 

[killer b]

It's cute that SAGE think 'work presenteeism' is a culture thing, rather than a most people don't have decent sick pay conditions thing.

 

[StoneRoad]

idk, but it seems to me that the beeb has been "pushing" the idea of bringing in 'Plan B now' quite hard in the past few days.

 

[elbows]

It's cute that SAGE think 'work presenteeism' is a culture thing, rather than a most people don't have decent sick pay conditions thing.

Other aspects get a mention in the document I subsequently quoted, but note the pathetic 'moderate confidence' attached to this bit:

Support that enables people to take time off is also necessary [Moderate Confidence]

 

[StoneRoad]

Support for sick pay - now that would be great. From both points of view.

First of all, it needs to be a decent amount of £££ and secondly it needs to be either repaid somehow or usable as direct allowance against taxes.

As I have said before, several times, this support is very important for small firms.

It used to be, that if the company paid out SSP [statutory sick pay] it could claim it back, then they changed that to using as an offset against tax payments. Now, if you pay out SSP, it is an expense that you can't get back, other than rolling it up into your overheads. [Especially so if the illness is long term]

 

[teuchter]

This graph gives quite a striking picture of the different situations in different part of the UK

UK Coronavirus Tracker - Local

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in the UK. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

 

[elbows]

We could probably have done with more of this language throughout the pandemic.

Dr Tom Black, chairman of the British Medical Association (BMA) in Northern Ireland, says further easing of restrictions in NI is "madness" and "stupid".

From the 16:40 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59006498

 

[Cloo]

Apparently Johnson sees 'no reason for there to be another lockdown on the cards'

I do - this fucking government which won't impose even the simplest of mitigation measures.

On the upside, if they fuck Christmas again, especially if the rest of the world doesn't, it might be the thing to finally piss people off enough not to vote for them. I mean, not 100ks of deaths or anything like that....

 

[bluescreen]

When they get the SAGE reports do they say: OK, just put it there with the others and I'll get round to reading it when I have a moment?

 

[bluescreen]

.

 

[Elpenor]

Support for sick pay - now that would be great. From both points of view.

First of all, it needs to be a decent amount of £££ and secondly it needs to be either repaid somehow or usable as direct allowance against taxes.

As I have said before, several times, this support is very important for small firms.

It used to be, that if the company paid out SSP [statutory sick pay] it could claim it back, then they changed that to using as an offset against tax payments. Now, if you pay out SSP, it is an expense that you can't get back, other than rolling it up into your overheads. [Especially so if the illness is long term]

For very small businesses this stopped in 2014, but for most larger organisations it’s not been recoverable since 1995 - see my quoted post from another thread. Notable that Labour chose not to remedy this in 13 years of government, they did find the time to introduce and expand paternity and maternity pay respectively. Paying at living wage would be a reasonable compromise.

I was wrong in my earlier cost, it’s not recoverable at all anymore even for micro employers. It was 80% recoverable initially, then dropped to 0% in 1995. So it’s a cost to employers, unlike the parental based absences which are for the most part recoverable. This needs to change. It’s notable if not surprising that no attempt to reverse this measure during the period 1997-2010 when there was a Labour government with a dominant majority.

Micro-employers lose SSP funding

From 6 April, small businesses are to lose the right to reclaim statutory sick pay (SSP) that they pay out… | Health | Finance | Finance | Government | Opinion | National |

bdaily.co.uk

 

[Puddy_Tat]

My part of Berkshire has gone dark purple on the map of doom.

Highest infection rate in the borough since it all started. Secondary school kids and their families a high proportion of this.

And getting local PCR tests done by the dodgy lab (returning false negatives so people didn't isolate) didn't help

 

[mx wcfc]

My part of Berkshire has gone dark purple on the map of doom.

Highest infection rate in the borough since it all started. Secondary school kids and their families a high proportion of this.

And getting local PCR tests done by the dodgy lab (returning false negatives so people didn't isolate) didn't help

I have colleagues in Berkshire, who have picked it up from their kids, who got it at school. One family of four, all down with it, and half the school off. We really need to collate all that bollocks that was spouted about kids not getting it and not spreading it, because, yes, the schools are the biggest vector at the moment.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

ah well, it's half term and from my anecdata of today's driving delivery job all the kids are off school firebreaking going to visit granddad/ma auntie/uncle and suchlike, what could possibly go wrong...

 

[existentialist]

Reports that the case rate in Pembrokeshire (next county along from me) is now experiencing case rates higher than at any point in the pandemic.

It is true that this part of the world has been very fortunate throughout most of this, in having comparatively low case rates, even when compared to towns and cities only a little further east. We've seen regular spikes, which correlate with periods during which we have seen large influxes of tourists (no prizes for guessing how that is going down in certain quarters ), but nothing quite as broad-based and consistent as what we're seeing now. Hospitals are thin on the ground, and are reporting getting very close to becoming overwhelmed, with all the consequences that go with that. And we still have a LOT of people awaiting non-Covid-related admissions for various things who've been waiting for the entire pandemic to be treated.

The biggest variable factor in the latest spike has to be the almost total reduction in protective measures around children going to school, though that's speculation.

But, even subjectively, Covid is "here" in a way it has never quite been up until now. And it's quite noticeable - the drummer in our band has succumbed; I've had a few close brushes, with one of my friendship group having had to isolate after contracting it; and my step-granddaughter (17, unvaccinated) is currently also isolating having tested positive. Thankfully, her mum (40, vaccinated, lots of health conditions) has tested negative and is showing no symptoms.

 

[StoneRoad]

Looking at the "heatmap" ages by infection rates for Northumberland, this wave of cases has been concentrated in the school age and up a bit, then those likely to have produced said children with a later and lower peak in older groups, inc grandparent age groups.

That fits with the cases in my SiL's three generation household. Incoming vector was the youngest with no symptoms (child at primary school) everyone else - all adults double jabbed - got it to a greater or lesser degree, apart from my triple dosed SiL.[Although she isolated as a precaution, health vulnerabilities and health worker (patient facing)].

 

[bimble]

The government have whole corridors full of people whose job it is to monitor the public mood don't they, so they must know that when they say things like 'the British public love freedom and would not accept any restrictions' they must know it's untrue