Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

As cupid stunt says, it's almost certainly due to the Indian variant popping up now, not really anything to do with the tightness of measures.

I wouldnt make that claim. Its more likely a combination of both. Relatively low prevalence levels also make it trickier to determine the variant picture, since when we hear about high percentage of cases being a particular variant, its often low underlying numbers at work. And when we get lower numbers, then individual cluster outbreaks can really shift the needle in a rather pronounced way, one school, workplace or social gathering outbreak can quickly make up the bulk of the increase seen in a particular place.

My concern is not so much to do with internal measures as with processes to stop the import of new variants. Seems to me the govt has not fully learned the lesson from last year. It's the nature of surges that we only find out about them a while after they have started, so I would guess that the new clusters of Indian variant entered the country before the latest restrictions were put in place. There's a lesson there, I think. All non-essential travel should be discouraged for this year, imo, including all foreign holidays. We can survive for a year without lying on a Portuguese beach. That way, we are then able to all live pretty normally and openly at home. That's the lesson of Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, etc.

Also need to consider the lessons for all of us in terms of the horse already having bolted. Indian variants already spreading in some communities, no further imports required.

 

[elbows]

Relatively low prevalence levels also make it trickier to determine the variant picture, since when we hear about high percentage of cases being a particular variant, its often low underlying numbers at work.

Just one example. The website with genomic data that the recent Guardian article linked to with the parameters set to look at the India variant B.1.617.2. I've also set it to zoom in on South Northamptonshire because that area shows 76.9% of genome sequenced cases for that area in the April 24th figures were of that variant! But the underlying number of cases involved appears to be 5.

COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance – Wellcome Sanger Institute

The Wellcome Sanger Institute's COVID–19 Genomic Surveillance Initiative, part of the COVID–19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium

covid19.sanger.ac.uk

 

[Teaboy]

As cupid stunt says, it's almost certainly due to the Indian variant popping up now, not really anything to do with the tightness of measures.

Almost certainly...

After everything that we've all been through over the last year and more I find it astonishing anyone is still using language like this. You're guessing just as much as I am.

 

[Elpenor]

38/39 year olds can now book vaccine on NHS website

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Almost certainly...

After everything that we've all been through over the last year and more I find it astonishing anyone is still using language like this. You're guessing just as much as I am.

I'm looking at the numbers. Your post also contained a bunch of assumptions about the effects of various measures and their tightening/loosening. I accept that it is perhaps a combination of the new variants being allowed in and the change in measures, but that's all - mostly because, looking at the numbers, I'm generally pessimistic about the effectiveness of most of the things we've been doing to slow the spread. It matters because we need to know the right things to fixate on. The lesson of the last year is that places that have done well are generally those that controlled their borders. We're still not doing that correctly, imo, when making that comparison.

 

[David Clapson]

The Spectator thinks that Johnson hopes to benefit from the public inquiry which he's announced. Could be quite a battle, with expert witnesses on hand. I wonder where Johnson will find scientists to say he did the right thing?

The Prime Minister has confirmed a ‘full, proper public inquiry’ into the government's handling of the Covid-19 crisis, which will be held in spring next year. This is highly significant, because a ‘full, proper public inquiry’ means one led by a judge and with witnesses represented by lawyers. Although the PM has repeatedly said there would be an inquiry, he had never before indicated when it would start and had never suggested whether it would be a ‘full, proper public inquiry’ or a less formal and less time-consuming ‘independent’ one.

According to a source, the Prime Minister has decided to confirm the timing of the inquiry so that he is seen to be taking the initiative, rather than reacting to potentially damaging disclosures due to be made by his estranged former chief aide Dominic Cummings, who is giving evidence to MPs on the health and science committees on 26 May. He will tell MPs that the Prime Minister was too slow to lock down in March and rejected his insistence that there should be a second lock down in September. Cummings believes this slowness to restrict our freedoms led to significant increases in the death toll. However, the Prime Minister is understood to be confident that voters understand his reluctance to lock down and that they will give him credit for the success of the vaccine programme.

 

[elbows]

I wonder where Johnson will find scientists to say he did the right thing?

Its clear from that quote that he isnt expecting that. He's expecting to rely on a mixture of the reasons why lockdown was unthinkable to his sort, and vaccine-based joy that matters came to an end.

 

[elbows]

He can also rely on the fact that his groteque failings will be joined by the failings seen across a far broader cross-section of the establishment. Dodgy orthodox thinking about the correct pandemic response extended to plenty of people who should have known better. One example would be that some of the modelling, or more precisely the modellers appreciation of the nature and lag involved in the data they were using, was shockingly poor during a crucial early period. So the terrible timing was not only Johnsons fault, there were other failures which messed up the first wave response timing. The second wave response timing can be blamed more comprehensively on Johnson & friends though, no matter how much they hide behind the Kent variant. Another example would be the number of people involved in public health that indulged in hideously wishful thinking about the number of asymptomatic cases and their potential role in transmission. Failure to control things at borders can also be blamed on quite a wide range of entities, including the WHO.

 

[elbows]

The Bolton situation is in the news:

Covid: Bolton Indian variant surge leaves hospitality nervous

Pub and cafe owners in Bolton are apprehensive about reopening amid a rise in the Indian variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Last June I went on about what looked to me like an outbreak at my local hospital, which authorities tried to be vague about using weasel words and appeals for the community to prevent infections in the wider community even though it seemed obvious to me that it was a hospital outbreak. Later I speculated that infection control had been much improved as a result of this outbreak.

Now I see they are prepared to be more honest about it:

Dr Catherine Free, medical director, admitted that lessons had been learned from last June.

The hospital was forced to take action on four wards as it battled an increase in cases, which resulted in 29 deaths in just one month.

She said that the learning from the June outbreak has helped the hospital tighten up its infection prevention and now it forms part of the everyday work.

(from an article about a recent rise in A&E numbers: Hundreds surge to A&E as staff face busiest day in 12 months )

 

[Sunray]

Definite worry about that variant, there its some evidence the AZ is protecting Indians from getting more than mild symptoms.

750 under 25's in the Bolton area. I suppose as long as nothing bad happens to them it's ok......

It's not going away.

 

[blameless77]

I see we finally have a date for the public inquiry. I dont know how much I'll be up for commentating on it when it happens, since I spent too long discussing failings at the time. I can already hear the future me groaning about how much is excused as only being obvious with the benefit of hindsight, when actually much of it was quite obvious at the time.

Covid: Lessons to be learned from spring 2022 public inquiry - PM

The state will be "under the microscope", Boris Johnson says, as Labour urges an earlier start date.

www.bbc.co.uk

At least you documented it and it's on record. You've definitely had an impact on my understanding of where we are at and what's needed to fix it - to the extent that I wouldn't be engaged in my current work if you hadn't convinced me it was important. They should include your posts as evidence!

 

[Artaxerxes]

The whole thing about masks for the first couple of months.

Crazy.

 

[Dystopiary]

The whole thing about masks for the first couple of months.

Crazy.

Yep, and has probably contributed to some of the conspiracy bs going about.

 

[pogofish]

I'm nervous about removing masks from kids thus soon. Why not leave it til the end of the school year then there are six weeks off?

Yup - The skinny from work about the Moray outbreak is that it is very heavily connected with the three academies (and secondarily the food processing/manufacturing sites in the area) but the Scottish government is doing its best to hang it on the two RAF/Army bases instead.

 

[elbows]

I dont know as I've got it in me to properly read all the updated modelling and SAGE minutes from earlier in May that became available a few days ago. Partly because if I just zoom in on a few specific bits then I feel like I'm doing a disservice to the whole picture.

But from what I've seen so far the modelling, as suggested recently, does indeed feature an improved outlook due to more impressive data about vaccines role in reducing transmission.

However I do note that other bits which mention variants, and relative lack of consideration of variants in most of this modelling, includes wording which suggests that even if a variant does not feature substantial escape from immunity, a property of being highly transmissible relative to the Kent B.1.1.7 variant would also be enough to generate concerns about a large wave.

A variant which either substantially escapes immunity or is highly transmissible (more so than B.1.1.7) could lead to a very significant wave of infection, potentially larger than that seen in January 2021 if there were no interventions. Given the uncertainty around the properties of any such variant this modelling is based on some illustrative scenarios only. The central scenarios modelled do not include any impact from new variants. Reducing the number of variant infections should be a priority for policy.

Maintaining control of transmission of any such variants will be more difficult when there are fewer measures in place. The extinction probability of a cluster depends heavily on the size of the cluster when it is identified, and the number of clusters will increase with the rate of importation. It would therefore be worthwhile to target resources at early detection of clusters of variants, particularly as potential importations increase. The principles of responding quickly, taking strong measures, and doing so over a wider geography than where the issue has been identified should apply.

That quote is from the meeting minutes ( https://assets.publishing.service.g...e/984501/S1235_Eighty-eighth_SAGE_meeting.pdf ) but similar things are said in some of the other documents from this period:

SAGE meetings, May 2021

Minutes and papers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) meetings held in May 2021.

www.gov.uk

How optimistic they are about the future also relies to a degree on hopes that behaviours dont return to normal too quickly once everything is formally unlocked.

 

[Badgers]

 

[cupid_stunt]

There's growing concerns that this India variant is more transmissible than the Kent one, some reports suggesting up to 60% more transmissible, as case numbers mount in the north & London.

Evidence is growing that a troubling “India variant” of the coronavirus is more transmissible than the type first detected in Kent that fuelled the UK’s second wave of infections and spread around the world. Scientists have warned the sharp rise in cases of the “India variant” could jeopardise the country’s roadmap out of lockdown.

Imperial College London’s latest React study found based on swab tests that between 15 April and 3 May in England coronavirus case rates halved compared with March, but the variant of concern known as B.1.617.2 found in India could be spreading faster, at least in London, than the “Kent variant”, known as B.1.1.7. It is thought the government’s Sage committee will hold an emergency meeting on the issue today.

Thursday briefing: ‘Indian variant’ could threaten roadmap

Sharp rise in cases worries scientists … Israel-Gaza conflict intensifies … and Tesla unplugs from Bitcoin

www.theguardian.com

 

[teuchter]

The statement from Imperial seems less concerned about the variant than that Guardian article implies.

Coronavirus infections have fallen to 1 in 1000 in England - REACT study | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The number of people infected with the coronavirus in England has fallen by half since the end of March.

www.imperial.ac.uk

For this latest study, 127,408 people across the country took swab tests at home. 115 were positive, giving a weighted infection prevalence of 0.1%. Weighting is when researchers make adjustments in their calculations to ensure that the sample is representative of the wider population.

Of the positive samples, a number have been analysed by genetic sequencing and 26 could be successfully identified. Of those, 24 (92.3%) were the Kent (B.1.1.7) variant and two (7.7%) were the Indian variant of concern (B.1.617.2). Both of the latter were detected in London, in people who did not report international travel within the two weeks prior to testing, suggesting community transmission.

Professor Steven Riley, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics at Imperial, said: “The fact that our study detected the Indian variant among a small number of samples could be cause for concern. At the moment it’s unclear whether this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 but this is a risk, so it will be important to closely monitor infections and hospitalisations in areas where this virus is present so that public health responses can be implemented if needed.”

 

[Badgers]

She has been quarantined on her own for 4 days. Negative tests at both airports and at the hotel. Has not seen another person apart from a distanced security card in PPE four times.

They have said another £800 and 4 more days of this shit. I have done some reading and I am sure she (if testing negative) can't be kept there.

She said there is virtually no staff at the hotel. The phone is almost never answered and they have told all the 'prisoner' guests that if they leave their room it is a £10k fine.

She is free and back to work

 

[Badgers]

She is free and back to work

In less positive news all the money she has saved (working as a Covid-19 tester) has been spent on the hotel jail. That was going to pay for her to become a doctor in the UK and work for the NHS

 

[Boudicca]

In less positive news all the money she has saved (working as a Covid-19 tester) has been spent on the hotel jail. That was going to pay for her to become a doctor in the UK and work for the NHS

Did she get out in the 10 days or did they make her do the extra ones?

 

[Boudicca]

.

 

[Cid]

The Bolton situation is in the news:

Covid: Bolton Indian variant surge leaves hospitality nervous

Pub and cafe owners in Bolton are apprehensive about reopening amid a rise in the Indian variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

Totally off topic, but journalism and referring to women by their ages. I mean the BBC is a load of old shite contentwise, but you’d think they could manage not to use ‘the x year old said’.

 

[Badgers]

Did she get out in the 10 days or did they make her do the extra ones?

She got out in ten thankfully. She has been speaking to a doctor about her panic attacks

 

[two sheds]

If she wants to take the fuckers to small claims court I'm sure we could have a whip round for court fees. Unless things have changed you're not liable for the other side's court costs.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The statement from Imperial seems less concerned about the variant than that Guardian article implies.

Coronavirus infections have fallen to 1 in 1000 in England - REACT study | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The number of people infected with the coronavirus in England has fallen by half since the end of March.

www.imperial.ac.uk

Yeah, I noticed that, but whilst the Guardian piece quoted the REACT study, which sampled up to 3rd May, I think the concern expressed is more to do with what has happened since, the COG-UK (Genomics Consortium) figures come out on Thursdays, and last week they showed cases of the Indian variant had more than doubled in a week, hence Public Health England upgrading it to a 'variant of concern' last Friday.

Plus there's reports saying the COG-UK figures today will show cases could have tripled, which is suggested as the reason for spikes in areas like Bolton, hence SAGE having an urgent meeting today, to discuss the latest figures, and the Guardian reporting it as 'evidence is growing', even Johnson has said it's 'of increasing concern'.

The consortium of scientists tracking new variants, COG-UK, has identified a total of 1723 cases of B1617.2, and while some of these will be duplicates, if the figure is confirmed by Public Health England in its weekly update this would be more than three times last week’s number of 520.

B1617.2 was designated as a variant of concern a week ago, and two weeks ago there were 202 cases. Scientists believe the variant could be more transmissible than the Kent variant, but that it will also not be resistant to vaccines.

Scientists fear possible delay to 21 June lockdown end as India variant cases 'triple in one week'

A Sage member says it is 'possible' the final lifting of lockdown could be delayed beyond 21 June due to the threat of the highly transmissible variant

inews.co.uk

 

[Badgers]

If she wants to take the fuckers to small claims court I'm sure we could have a whip round for court fees. Unless things have changed you're not liable for the other side's court costs.

Nice idea. She might find that a bit awkward but am speaking to her later about things. She is working with me today (is a trooper) and will see what to do.

 

[glitch hiker]

Cases seem to remain around the 2k mark daily and have been so for a couple of months now. Unless I'm in error that is still higher than the best points of last summer. The roadmap seems sacrosanct still, but the new variant from India seems to be of great enough concern to the scienticians that some believe we ought pause. Of course Boris won't. But, while the vaccine is possibly the mitigating factor here, I do think we will see a rise as a result. How can we not? Can we vaccinate enough people quickly enough?

 

[elbows]

There's growing concerns that this India variant is more transmissible than the Kent one, some reports suggesting up to 60% more transmissible, as case numbers mount in the north & London.

If increase in transmission is anywhere near that, and if early May modelling assumptions are broadly correct, then that will be a catastrophe if unlocking proceeds as currently envisaged.

Because the modelling papers from SAGE I was on about last night do include a bit of work the University of Watrwick did to illustrate what sort of effect rises in transmissibility would be expected to have on a third wave. These should not be read as predictions, but I am certainly using them as a rough guide. These graphs in particular involve a scenario where the current vaccines dont have any reduced protective effect against the new variant, and they just change the transmission parameters fed into the modelling. The increases in transmission they've used dont go up to 60%, only 50%, but can still offer us clues.

If we did not proceed with the next unlocking step that is due in just a few days then the daily hospital admissions stay within manageable limits:



If we proceed with the May unlocking but not the June unlocking then things look grim, with potential for peaks higher than those seen in previous waves:



If we proceed with all the roadmap steps then its obviously expected to be even worse:



As usual these demonstrations do not include any new restrictions brought in at any point to try to cope.

Those are from page 31 of https://assets.publishing.service.g...p_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Steps_3_and_4.pdf