Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

Cases seem to remain around the 2k mark daily and have been so for a couple of months now. Unless I'm in error that is still higher than the best points of last summer. The roadmap seems sacrosanct still, but the new variant from India seems to be of great enough concern to the scienticians that some believe we ought pause. Of course Boris won't. But, while the vaccine is possibly the mitigating factor here, I do think we will see a rise as a result. How can we not? Can we vaccinate enough people quickly enough?

Cases at the start of April were around 4,500 daily, down to about 2,000 a week ago, so they have been dropping, until the release of figures this week, the 7-day average is now up by 13.4% on the pervious week. It's hard to compare now to last summer, for example in June we were only doing around 80k tests a day, we are doing more than 10 times that now.

SAGE is holding an emergency meeting today to discuss the Indian variant and Johnson is not ruling anything out.

Johnson refused to rule out using local lockdowns to deal with possible surges of the Indian variant of coronavirus. Asked about concerns over the Indian variant circulating in the UK, Johnson said:
"It is a variant of concern, we are anxious about it ...
At the moment there is a very wide range of scientific opinion about what could happen.
We want to make sure we take all the prudential, cautious steps now that we could take, so there are meetings going on today to consider exactly what we need to do. There is a range of things we could do, we are ruling nothing out."

Asked if local lockdowns were possible, Johnson replied:
"There are a range of things we could do, we want to make sure we grip it.
Obviously there’s surge testing, there’s surge tracing.
If we have to do other things, then of course the public would want us to rule nothing out. We have always been clear we would be led by the data.
At the moment, I can see nothing that dissuades me from thinking we will be able to go ahead on Monday and indeed on 21 June, everywhere, but there may be things we have to do locally and we will not hesitate to do them if that is the advice we get."

UK politics: Cameron does not deny using Greensill’s private jet to fly to holiday home in Cornwall – as it happened

Former prime minister to be questioned by two committees; Boris Johnson has suggested the government is considering a range of measures to deal with Covid variant first discovered in India

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

"seen nothing that dissuades him' is a concept that has to take into account what a shithead he is.

See my previous post a few mins age for the University of Warwick modelling, which he will surely have been shown. Mostly just leaves the question of whether transmission of this variant is really going to be as high compared to the current dominant strain as recent reports suggest it might be.

 

[elbows]

It would certainly be nice if they could deal with it via preventing seeding, effectively stopping onwards transmission from clusters, or effecively imposing local restrictions in a way that prevents further spread. However to believe that such possibilities would be effective would require me to hear of some great new way they were acting to achieve such things. Because we've seen what an ineffective job they've done of that in the past, with less transmissible strains, so I dont know what reasons I'd have to believe they'd succeed in that way this time. Their efforts on these fronts are not a complete waste of time, but the best they've managed in the past has been to slow things down rather than genuinely contain them.

 

[cupid_stunt]

"seen nothing that dissuades him' is a concept that has to take into account what a shithead he is.

True, but SAGE hasn't reported on today's meeting yet, we all know how quick he can 'U-turn' when confronted with terrifying new data & advice, as demonstrated at Christmas, and after schools returned for a day in January.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It would certainly be nice if they could deal with it via preventing seeding, effectively stopping onwards transmission from clusters, or effecively imposing local restrictions in a way that prevents further spread. However to believe that such possibilities would be effective would require me to hear of some great new way they were acting to achieve such things. Because we've seen what an ineffective job they've done of that in the past, with less transmissible strains, so I dont know what reasons I'd have to believe they'd succeed in that way this time. Their efforts on these fronts are not a complete waste of time, but the best they've managed in the past has been to slow things down rather than genuinely contain them.

Indeed.

I see Andy Burnham is calling for a surge vaccination roll-out for anyone over 16 in areas of Great Manchester, which sounds like a good idea to me.

 

[elbows]

True, but SAGE hasn't reported on today's meeting yet, we all know how quick he can 'U-turn' when confronted with terrifying new data & advice, as demonstrated at Christmas, and after schools returned for a day in January.

His u-turn record so far has tended to rely not just on terrifying future predictions, but also upon those being combined with waiting till the situation on the ground was already at crisis levels. Thats certainly how I'd describe his second wave/kent variant response. I suppose in the first wave he did act before the crisis on the ground was in total and obvious effect, but that time round we had the experience of countries like Italy to act as a guide. Will he be willing to use whats happened in India as a similar guide? I have my doubts, especially given how much political capital he has invested in the 'irreversible' lockdown exit.

I hope to be wrong but I dont have too many reasons to expect anything other than the usual 'act too late' approach.

 

[elbows]

Indeed.

I see Andy Burnham is calling for a surge vaccination roll-out for anyone over 16 in areas of Great Manchester, which sounds like a good idea to me.

I'd need to see this scenario modelled, it might help but I'm not sure if it will be enough to be the difference maker people might expect. Plus it would inevitably come at the expense of some other people somewhere not getting vaccinated on schedule. And they better be bloody sure their infection control procedures at vaccination centres are up to scratch, otherwise unintended consequences could include accelerating the spread of the variant amongst the younger age groups.

 

[elbows]

I see the front page of the i today included "Easing of lockdown measures next week will go ahead as planned but children living in affected areas could be told to continue wearing facemasks in schools".

Sticking just to the latter part of that sentence, its the same old shit mistake where clamping down on particular areas whilst relaxing things elsewhere just invites all the relaxed areas to become every bit as bad as the current areas of concern. There is no way they should be removing the school mask mandate anywhere right now, not unless the increased transmissibility of the India variant in question is shown to be a false alarm, or they somehow effectively stop this version of the virus from becoming widespread. Probably too late for the latter already, but I await the latest numbers.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is all fast moving, surge vaccination is going ahead.

People aged 18 and over in parts of Lancashire are to be offered Covid vaccines due to concerns about levels of the Indian variant of the virus.
The jabs are to be offered to people in and around Blackburn and Darwen.
Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council said the measure will begin next week and go hand-in-hand with a programme of surge testing in the area.

A council spokeswoman said a meeting was due to be held later before more details about the vaccination programme would be released.
She said: "The council and NHS partners have secured extra doses of the Covid-19 vaccine that will be made available to anyone in Blackburn with Darwen aged over 18 from next week."

Covid: Blackburn council clarifies position on over-18s vaccines

A council in Lancashire changes its stance after saying all over-18s would get a Covid vaccine.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[teuchter]

If increase in transmission is anywhere near that, and if early May modelling assumptions are broadly correct, then that will be a catastrophe if unlocking proceeds as currently envisaged.

Because the modelling papers from SAGE I was on about last night do include a bit of work the University of Watrwick did to illustrate what sort of effect rises in transmissibility would be expected to have on a third wave. These should not be read as predictions, but I am certainly using them as a rough guide. These graphs in particular involve a scenario where the current vaccines dont have any reduced protective effect against the new variant, and they just change the transmission parameters fed into the modelling. The increases in transmission they've used dont go up to 60%, only 50%, but can still offer us clues.

If we did not proceed with the next unlocking step that is due in just a few days then the daily hospital admissions stay within manageable limits:

View attachment 268009

If we proceed with the May unlocking but not the June unlocking then things look grim, with potential for peaks higher than those seen in previous waves:

View attachment 268010

If we proceed with all the roadmap steps then its obviously expected to be even worse:

View attachment 268011

As usual these demonstrations do not include any new restrictions brought in at any point to try to cope.

Those are from page 31 of https://assets.publishing.service.g...p_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Steps_3_and_4.pdf

Doesn't this all depend quite a lot on what the % more transmissable actually refers to, and whether it takes into account the extent to which the vaccine affects transmissibility?

 

[Supine]

Looks like B1617.2 is taking off all over

 

[elbows]

Doesn't this all depend quite a lot on what the % more transmissable actually refers to, and whether it takes into account the extent to which the vaccine affects transmissibility?

I suggest you read the relevant documents yourself, I struggle to do everything full justice when I try to condense things. As far as I can tell much of that stuff is factored into their modelling already, although of course reality can diverge from the figures and assumptions they've fed into their models. I think one of the differences between that early May modelling and the previous model runs is that they actually had some figures about vaccines impact on transmission that they could include in their modelling scenarios.

 

[platinumsage]

Looks like B1617.2 is taking off all over

View attachment 268024

Those graphs show it's taking over, not taking off.

 

[elbows]

Looks like B1617.2 is taking off all over

View attachment 268024

Its a shame their data still only goes up to April 24th, I wonder how often that institute will update the publicly available data. Not that it would be wise to bet against the subsequent data being a reasonable fit for what they have projected there.

 

[elbows]

Nobody who has listened to me droning on from time to time about how measures the UK often dressses up as being attempts at containment are really more about surveillance, not sincere attempts at containment, should be surprised by this bit from a BBC story about Johnsons variant concerns:

Covid: Boris Johnson 'anxious' about Indian variant

UK cases of the variant have more than doubled in the past week, says Public Health England.

www.bbc.co.uk

But sources told the BBC that surge testing in areas where the variant has been found "isn't working".

The current strategy was identifying cases but not stopping the spread, they told the BBC.

The sources added that cases of the variant were being seen in many places with no links to travel and case numbers have been "grossly underestimated".

 

[elbows]

Although just to be clear, its still important to do what we can, even when stuff falls far short of full containment. Surveillance is important and when people do the right thing some individuals that would otherwise have been infected are spared.

So the usual sort of thing I say that enables me to be furious about poorly timed and weak responses, without being defeatist about whether there is any point bothering with all the smaller things.

 

[elbows]

This is all fast moving, surge vaccination is going ahead.

It now transpires thats not the case.

Quote from an updated version of Covid: Boris Johnson 'anxious' about Indian variant

Extra clinics will open in Blackburn and Darwen in Lancashire from next week to offer the vaccine to those who are eligible under national guidelines.

It was earlier reported that additional doses had been given to these areas in order to open up jab appointments to all over-18s - but the council now says that is not the case.

The updated article also includes this from Dingwall (who sits on NERVTAG):

Prof Robert Dingwall, a scientist on the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said it seemed people who have been vaccinated "have only a very low risk of infection" from the Indian variant - and infection was "likely to be mild".

He said it "seems to be slightly more transmissible" than the UK and South African variants and could become the dominant variant in the UK.

"The consequence of this would be a greater number of mild illnesses with little risk of a surge in hospitalisations or deaths," he said.

"We need to stop panicking about every new variant that comes along," he added.

Panic is pointless. Being too laid back about this sort of thing, and not paying attention to what modelling indicates, is also stupid as far as I'm concerned. These are after all variants of concern for a reason, they arent called 'variants of Dingwall says everything will be fine'.

Personally, since knowledge and number of detected cases lags behind reality, and modelling is imperfect, I use modelling to give me clues about what sort of situations might develop, what sort of potential the pandemic still has, what sort of weight different parts of our response may need to carry. I do not take the modelling to be a prediction of exactly what will happen, or when. It offers clues. Other factors could prevent such scenarios from unfolding. But I wont be complacent about it until the acute phases of the pandemic are clearly over, and we arent there yet no matter how much positive vaccine news there is.

Meanwhile my local news is full of talk about how this variant has been found in my local ward, with a suggestion that surge testing looms for my part of Nuneaton or perhaps the wider area. Given that the cases they are on about were likely from a while back due to the time it takes to get genome sequencing of samples done, I must keep in mind a fairly wide range of possibilities in terms of how widespread the Indian variant is here by now.

 

[elbows]

By the way, Dingwall is a sociologist with a pretty bloody poor track record in this pandemic.

I cant be arsed to document the full history but these bits from his wikipedia entry will hopefully be enough to get the idea:

In early May 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Dingwall was interviewed by a journalist at the Daily Telegraph over the Government's coronavirus warnings. He opined that:[4]

We have this very strong message which has effectively terrorised the population into believing that this is a disease that is going to kill you. And mostly it isn't. Eighty per cent of the people who get this infection will never need to go near a hospital. The ones who do go to hospital because they are quite seriously ill most of them will come out alive - even those who go into intensive care. We have completely lost sight of that in the obsession with deaths, the human interest stories about deaths, the international comparisons about death rates, the opportunities for intrepid television journalists to put on lots of PPE and go into high tech where people are acutely ill. All of that helps to create this climate of fear...

In the same interview, Dingwall stressed that:[4]

There is a fair degree of consensus now among people who are more expert on these things than I am that outdoor transmission is negligible... Fleeting contacts are really irrelevant - if a jogger runs past you in the park, this is not a big deal.

On 18 July, Dingwall criticised another SAGE report, which forecasted 120,000 deaths from COVID-19 in wintertime 2020–21. In his estimation "was based on flawed mathematics" and created an "environment of fear".

It would be better for everyone if his opinion on this variant of concern turns out to be more valid than his previous shit, but I wouldnt bet on it, and he is exactly the sort of 'expert' who I hope gets roasted by the public inquiry.

 

[elbows]

This is also an opportunity for me to say how deeply unhappy I am that the media happily amplify the message of these people shamelessly repeating their errors of judgement despite many tens of thousands of deaths already demonstrating the error of their ways. Shameless fucks.

I mean I expect it from the likes of the Telegraph who have a pretty clear anti-lockdown agenda. But when the BBC etc quote these people they should at a minimum make some reference to the shitty track record of the person in question.

We have learnt that as far as anti-lockdown fuckwits of concern go, there appears to be no magic quantity of waves or level of death that can modify their stance. The rest of society has to do the heavy lifting in this regard and give these pandemic gimps the cold shoulder. Oops sorry for adding this bit to the post after a few people had already liked it.

 

[elbows]

And its also an opportunity for me to say that NERVTAG failures of judgement and timely response are one of the things I look forward to learning more about via the public inquiry. I did read all their papers from early in the pandemic, in part because not too much else such as SAGE stuff was available at the time, and it wasnt the worst shit I've ever read but it was also not very impressive. It was typical orthodox mainstream shit with the sort of failings anyone familiar with previous pandemic responses and reviews of them would have been expecting to see in the early months of this pandemic. Exactly the sort of shit that allowed me to be a fairly effective smartarse in the early months. I havent paid much attention since so I cant say how impressive they were once the first wave gave them a giant reality check, and once certain orthodox positions turned to dust. I doubt it is much fun sitting on such a body if you have a sensible view of pandemics and the necessary response, when others in the group have the sort of opinions Dingwall has expressed. The good can easily be cancelled out when it comes to reaching a consensus view and reporting upwards.

 

[Cloo]

I see they're talking about ending mask mandate on 21 June... I do wonder if that's a good way for them to create a low-hanging fruit response if things get ropey so they can look like they are being 'cautious' without shutting things down: 'Sorry, we're going to keep masks to be in the safe side' is easier to say than 'Sorry, you're going to have to cancel all those summer parties'

 

[2hats]

Its a shame their data still only goes up to April 24th

From PHE VOC Technical Briefing 11 released today:

S-gene TaqPath positive result a proxy for non-B.1.1.7 variants, likely dominated by B.1.617.2.

 

[muscovyduck]

Badgers just caught up on the last 20 pages of thread now, really sorry to hear about what your friend has gone through. I think there's some sort of human rights type of law about 'outside time' so that day it was missed might be an angle to secure compensation beyond the typical breach of contract stuff?

 

[Badgers]

Analysis: Late and leaky. How the UK failed to impose an effective quarantine system

A week after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson laid out a triumphant road map for the country's exit from lockdown, off the back of its successful Covid-19 vaccination drive, major flaws have been exposed in the UK's efforts to prevent the spread of new coronavirus variants in the country.

amp.cnn.com

Critics who warned that the government's failure to clamp down on indirect flights from high-risk countries like Brazil would make it easier for variants to spread in the UK have been vindicated.

"It demonstrates the slowness of the government to close off even the major routes, but also the unwillingness to confront the fact that the virus doesn't travel by direct flights," opposition Labour party leader Keir Starmer told a virtual meeting on Monday, according to PA Media.

 

[purenarcotic]

Nobody who has listened to me droning on from time to time about how measures the UK often dressses up as being attempts at containment are really more about surveillance, not sincere attempts at containment, should be surprised by this bit from a BBC story about Johnsons variant concerns:

Covid: Boris Johnson 'anxious' about Indian variant

UK cases of the variant have more than doubled in the past week, says Public Health England.

www.bbc.co.uk

I’m not surprised surge testing isn’t doing much. My work was contacted to say that someone in the vicinity of the office had tested positive for the SA variant a month before, so they were surge testing. Anyone who had been into the office the previous 30 days had to be tested. That’s an appalling time delay and frankly it felt pointless to me; by the time we’ve been notified there were several weeks we could have been spreading it about.

 

[Badgers]

In less positive news all the money she has saved (working as a Covid-19 tester) has been spent on the hotel jail. That was going to pay for her to become a doctor in the UK and work for the NHS

Other update...

She was held at Heathrow Airport for 8 hours with no access to food, drink or a toilet. Apparently one older lady fainted and two others soiled themselves but were given little or no help.

She then got transported by (a packed) coach to Croydon for the Covid-19 jail time. Despite the the £200 a night fee and the promise of transport after release this was withheld she was supposed to be released at midday but due to 'staff shortages' it was delayed till 4pm. I had arranged for someone to collect her (C19 tested first) and luckily they were patient enough to wait for 4 hours.

Hostile environment eh?

 

[Supine]

Good data for vaccines impact and the India variant

 

[LDC]

Burnham on the news lots today re: Indian variant in the NW making it clear he's against any local lockdowns or restrictions. Not a word about 'unless funded properly' or anything similar.

 

[lazythursday]

Burnham on the news lots today re: Indian variant in the NW making it clear he's against any local lockdowns or restrictions. Not a word about 'unless funded properly' or anything similar.

I'm really not quite sure what to think about this. On the one hand it seems potentially irresponsible, but local lockdowns in the format we've seen in the past just don't work and create an enormous sense of unfairness. I think he's probably strategically right to be resolutely against them at this stage, it will help get concessions down the line if there does end up being no alternative.

 

[elbows]

Burnham wins plaudits in this pandemic but I've made it clear that I think his pandemic position has often been dangerous shit, and so he is very much on my shit list in this pandemic.