Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[iona]

Background - our family (me, Mrs W, daughters W1 (15) and W2 (13)) are taking part in the ONS study. This involves weekly PCR swab testing for 5 weeks then monthly for a year.

I'm meant to be doing this (antibody tests too) but I've not heard from them in months, other than one test appt in iirc November that no one ever showed up for...

 

[Winot]

I'm meant to be doing this (antibody tests too) but I've not heard from them in months, other than one test appt in iirc November that no one ever showed up for...

A friend has had the same experience. They are busier than expected apparently. Hope you get contacted.

 

[elbows]

Platinumsage is correct on this one, I listen to anecdotes but wait for data.

I may have some useful data, I will check later.

I checked and the hospital data I use wont have data for December until January 14th. I also hate the fact they have some very broad age ranges in there, eg 18-64 as a single set of figures

 

[iona]

A friend has had the same experience. They are busier than expected apparently. Hope you get contacted.

I joined the study back in June...

 

[muscovyduck]

Finally, I still haven't received the code from the NHS to put into the tracker app to alert people that I might have come into contact with. I assume this is due to the system being overwhelmed and struggling to cope with numbers rather than the systemic problems above.

of the last two (negative) results I had - the first didn't give me a code, but the second negative, the other day, gave me one to put in the tracker.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Compare and contrast, UK vs Korea

 

[elbows]

HSJ analysed some hospital data, enabling them to see which trusts had a high proportion of beds occupied by Covid patients. I posted a graph or two of the same underlying data recently, but didnt drill down to the per-trust level.

Exclusive: new data reveals the 23 trusts with over a third of beds occupied by covid patients

Twenty-three hospital trusts had more than a third of their core bedbase occupied by covid-19 patients on Tuesday, and occupancy is still rising at all but one.

www.hsj.co.uk

https://www.hsj.co.uk/download?ac=3049148

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Compare and contrast, UK vs Korea

This is what makes me angry. There is no reason at all why it couldn't be like that here. It's a political choice that has been made. We have the state we're in because a group of incompetent pricks made it so.

 

[platinumsage]

This is what makes me angry. There is no reason at all why it couldn't be like that here. It's a political choice that has been made. We have the state we're in because a group of incompetent pricks made it so.

No European countries have done this though, I think it's about more than just incompetent politicians and comes down to the culture of government itself.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

No European countries have done this though, I think it's about more than just incompetent politicians and comes down to the culture of government itself.

Happy to lump them all together tbh. What we have doesn't work.

 

[platinumsage]

Happy to lump them all together tbh. What we have doesn't work.

It doesn't work in pandemics, but there might be advantages in other areas e.g. the countries that did well, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, China all have the death penalty. I'm not saying there's a correlation but there might be something in the way a government views its citizens and what it can do to them.

 

[StoneRoad]

It doesn't work in pandemics, but there might be advantages in other areas e.g. the countries that did well, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, China all have the death penalty. I'm not saying there's a correlation but there might be something in the way a government views its citizens and what it can do to them.

That's not valid.
USA and Iran also have the death penalty, and Iran is a religious dictatorship - look at the figures, I don't think you could say that they did well against the 'rona.

 

[platinumsage]

That's not valid.
USA and Iran also have the death penalty, and Iran is a religious dictatorship - look at the figures, I don't think you could say that they did well against the 'rona.

I didn't say there was a correlation between corona response and the death penalty, you have to look more broadly in terms of how the governments which have handled this successfully typically handle disasters, crime etc and the culture of dealing with their citizens.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Another record of 57,725 new cases today.

Reported deaths 445.

 

[elbows]

I didn't say there was a correlation between corona response and the death penalty, you have to look more broadly in terms of how the governments which have handled this successfully typically handle disasters, crime etc and the culture of dealing with their citizens.

We can start with slightly subtler differences. We could compare the UK and France. UK had Hancock struggling to keep a straight face when talking about our 'consent based form of policing'. France has a somewhat different culture in this regard, have required papers from people venturing out of their homes during lockdowns, and in preparation for new years eve there was stuff like this in the press:

Mr Darmanin has written to regional leaders informing them of Thursday's "exceptional" mobilisation of 100,000 police and gendarmes. This would amount to an "affirmation of state authority in every part of the national territory", he said.

Granted they had a dual agenda with that stuff, seeking to deal with other forms of unrest over the period including the burning of cars. But the differences in language and underlying concepts always interests me.

I cannot link to the article where I got that quote from because that part of the story was edited later, as is somewhat typical for the BBC news website. Here is a link to a later version of the story anyway Covid: France mobilises 100,000 police to stop New Year's Eve gatherings

 

[Cid]

It doesn't work in pandemics, but there might be advantages in other areas e.g. the countries that did well, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, China all have the death penalty. I'm not saying there's a correlation but there might be something in the way a government views its citizens and what it can do to them.

Not sure why you skipped Australia and New Zealand there... Notably lacking in death penalty.

And, of course, the country whose citizens (ok some of them) reckon they've got far and away the most Freedom ever still has the death penalty.

 

[bimble]

It’s a massive and really interesting question, the relationship between how efficient Covid-suppression measures are and how ..authoriarian (?) the state in which they’re imposed. It’s probably far too early to make sense of it all yet though but I’m fascinated by the incredible variety of responses by different countries.
For instance, the Israelis have just now decided to stop forcing arrivals at the airports (both visitors and residents) to quarantine for 14 days in state-commandeered hotels with armed guards to put down the occasional attempts to make a run for freedom. That would not fly here, I think.

 

[grit]

The principle is sound. With the virus out of control across the country, making 20 million people 70% immune instead of 10 million people 90% immune* could save thousands of lives.

The question is: how are the government going to fuck it up? The vaccine program is a bold new frontier for the bumbling incompetents in charge to make a mess of things.

We don’t have to way to properly determine that, Pfizer have publicly pushed back on the idea and the FDA rightly points out that all testing has been done based on the original schedule.

 

[elbows]

I recommend paying attention to this SAGE document from December 23rd. Some of it has already been reflected in press conference rhetoric, but I doubt people will neessarily notice the key bits when its coming out of Johnsons mouth.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948607/s0995-mitigations-to-reduce-transmission-of-the-new-variant.pdf

Previously identified personal, procedural, engineering and societal mitigations to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus all continue to apply to the new variant, but are likely to require a step change in rigour of application given that the new variant is likely to represent a significantly increased transmission risk (high confidence).

It is essential to reinforce the core principles of a hierarchy of control measures to reduce physical transmission through the environment by all routes – close-range, airborne, and via surfaces, given the risks that transmission of the new variant may be higher for all these routes (medium confidence).

Primary actions to reduce transmission including: reducing social contacts; effective testing and tracing; robust outbreak identification and control; support to ensure effective isolation and quarantine; and population vaccination remain essential. Population level approaches to further reduce contact between people are likely to be necessary, such as extending Tier 4; changing the operation of schools/ universities; travel restrictions between regions and internationally; and/or introducing a national lockdown (high confidence).

As a consequence of the uncertainty around the mechanisms for increased transmission, enhanced mitigation measures are likely to be necessary including: reconsidering the 2m rule and requiring that where regular interactions less than 2m are necessary this should include correctly worn face coverings; enhancing ventilation rates to account for possible higher viral loads; and reinforcing the importance of using face coverings, including in settings where they are not currently mandated, such as education, workplaces, and crowded outdoor spaces (medium confidence).

The importance of reducing the risk of transmission through rigorously applying mitigation measures needs to be communicated to the public in the context of the increased risk of transmission and the season. Communications should focus on alerting the public and organisations that: (a) previous levels of adherence to preventive measures are unlikely to sufficiently reduce transmission of the new variant, especially in winter; and (b) environmental and personal measures can still reduce transmission if applied more rigorously, including within the home environment (high confidence).

A new, intensive, culturally tailored communication and support strategy should be developed, employing rapid co-design with all sectors in society (high confidence). The strategy should focus on positively encouraging and supporting the additional behaviours required to control a more infectious virus strain, particularly:
o reducing indoor contacts to the lowest level possible;
o high adherence to testing and self-isolation if symptomatic or a contact of a case;
o consistent use of high-quality face-coverings whenever indoor close contact mixing is unavoidable;
o approaches to enable effective ventilation of enclosed spaces.

In practical terms, this means that in addition to things getting a lot of attention at the moment like school closures, people should be rethinking what steps they are taking personally, and masks use should be extended to a wider range of scenarios regardless of whether this government get round to mandating such things. Also, no more treating ventilation of spaces as a weird afterthought.

 

[platinumsage]

It’s a massive and really interesting question, the relationship between how efficient Covid-suppression measures are and how ..authoriarian (?) the state in which they’re imposed. It’s probably far too early to make sense of it all yet though but I’m fascinated by the incredible variety of responses by different countries.
For instance, the Israelis have just now decided to stop forcing arrivals at the airports (both visitors and residents) to quarantine for 14 days in state-commandeered hotels with armed guards to put down the occasional attempts to make a run for freedom. That would not fly here, I think.

I don't think it's a simple cause of authoritarianism winning, although a willingness to shut borders, forcibly quarantine people and ignore privacy concerns when implementing track and trace definitely helps. Some governments have had success despite not being authoritarian...Australia and New Zealand are renowned for their fastidious bio-security at their customs and border controls, so shutting the borders and quarantining people was perhaps an easier thing to implement than in say Italy, where police fining people on the street may have been in their culture but wasn't something that made a big difference.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Shades of Johnson's freedom loving Brits in all this authoritarian discussion that is a bit uncomfortable. Or "Confucian values'

Seems to make more sense that the state hasn't been hollowed out by decades of outsourcing and quangos and sees itself as having responsibility for it's citizens as part of the contract between them. China's a Dystopian nightmare sure but the waters are far murkier for other countries in those lists. It also ignores the sheer quantity of trespass laws and CCTV blanketing the UK.

 

[Cid]

It’s a massive and really interesting question, the relationship between how efficient Covid-suppression measures are and how ..authoriarian (?) the state in which they’re imposed. It’s probably far too early to make sense of it all yet though but I’m fascinated by the incredible variety of responses by different countries.
For instance, the Israelis have just now decided to stop forcing arrivals at the airports (both visitors and residents) to quarantine for 14 days in state-commandeered hotels with armed guards to put down the occasional attempts to make a run for freedom. That would not fly here, I think.

I've said this a few times... There is a basically racist element to this, or at least some assumption of cultural superiority/exceptionalism. You can certainly argue that there are some authoritarian elements in SK/Japan... But equally - recently - SK's democracy has proven to have a greater degree of accountability than, e.g, the US system ever could. Stark contrast between jailing a corrupt president, and allowing one to pardon his cronies.

 

[Cid]

I don't think it's a simple cause of authoritarianism winning, although a willingness to shut borders, forcibly quarantine people and ignore privacy concerns when implementing track and trace definitely helps. Some governments have had success despite not being authoritarian...Australia and New Zealand are renowned for their fastidious bio-security at their customs and border controls, so shutting the borders and quarantining people was perhaps an easier thing to implement than in say Italy, where police fining people on the street may have been in their culture but wasn't something that made a big difference.

Australia and NZ have both strategically used hard lockdowns.

 

[maomao]

In China if you test positive they basically put you in prison for two weeks (or until you pass a certain number of tests). It sounds extreme but it works and the consequence of it working is that they don't have to do it to as many people anymore. People might think the British wouldn't accept it but the New York system is similar. I don't think the main factor in this not happening in the UK has anything to do with respect for freedom or civil liberties. It's just a refusal to take the thing seriously. Which is why we end up in situations like we have this week with givernment headbangers trying to force kids and teachers back to school when it's clearly not safe.

 

[bimble]

I don't think it's a simple cause of authoritarianism winning, although a willingness to shut borders, forcibly quarantine people and ignore privacy concerns when implementing track and trace definitely helps. Some governments have had success despite not being authoritarian...Australia and New Zealand are renowned for their fastidious bio-security at their customs and border controls, so shutting the borders and quarantining people was perhaps an easier thing to implement than in say Italy, where police fining people on the street may have been in their culture but wasn't something that made a big difference.

Yeah of course it’s not as simple as a single axis, more authoritarianism = stricter / more efficient pandemic response. A hundred other factors will come into it, including pretty hard to define stuff like whether there is a basic level of trust in the government.

 

[souljacker]

I seem to remember that the early (i.e. March) narrative of why South Korea (and other Asian countries) have done well with this virus is because they had recent experience with MERS and previous SARS. I'd like to think that, once this is all over, we will establish effective enquiries and working groups that will look at what we did well (shouldn't take long) and what we fucked up (could take years) so that next time (and there will be a next time) we'll be better prepared.

 

[Cid]

Japan, of course, actually can't lockdown, precisely because the constitution emphasizes individual freedom.

 

[platinumsage]

I don't think the main factor in this not happening in the UK has anything to do with respect for freedom or civil liberties. It's just a refusal to take the thing seriously. Which is why we end up in situations like we have this week with givernment headbangers trying to force kids and teachers back to school when it's clearly not safe.

It's all very well saying it's due to the politicians in the UK and not the general culture of government, but that doesn't explain why the UK, US, Europe and South America have ended up in the same situation whereas Pacific Rim countries haven't

 

[Artaxerxes]

In China if you test positive they basically put you in prison for two weeks (or until you pass a certain number of tests). It sounds extreme but it works and the consequence of it working is that they don't have to do it to as many people anymore. People might think the British wouldn't accept it but the New York system is similar. I don't think the main factor in this not happening in the UK has anything to do with respect for freedom or civil liberties. It's just a refusal to take the thing seriously. Which is why we end up in situations like we have this week with givernment headbangers trying to force kids and teachers back to school when it's clearly not safe.

Maybe its simplest to suggest the political parties here prioritise staying in power over hard choices towards public welfare. If they enforce to hard it throws up to many questions and angers those they rely onto stay in power.

There's an expectation that flying is normal and a right, not a privilege.

Edit: fuck it there's a lot of factors here so I don't think any one thing is correct but a lot does factor into who's in charge

 

[bimble]

Might be something for yet another Covid thread.